INDIA RISK TRACKER 23 RD AUGUST2017

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1 INDIA RISK TRACKER 23 RD AUGUST2017 Haryana and Punjab Delhi Delhi and Gujarat Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh National Haryana and Punjab on high alert ahead of the verdict on the Dera Sacha Sauda Chief on August 25 th AAP to hold dharna outside Union Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal s Delhi residence on August 24 th In Delhi, 37 swine flu deaths in central government hospitals since January; Two more swine flu deaths reported in Ahmedabad Section 144 imposed in Bharatpur over launch of Jat agitation in Bharatpur and Dholpur from today (August 23 rd ) Delhi-bound Kaifiyat Express derails in Auraiya district of UP, 74 injured in the accident Flood situation worsens in Bihar in Bihar; flood situation shows improvement in Assam and West Bengal Regional Snapshot Bangladesh: Week of heavy rain predicted, chance of flooding in Dhaka Nepal: Viral diseases strikes people in landslide-affected areas Sri Lanka: Trade unions to strike against new Inland Revenue Draft Bill tomorrow (August 24th) Pakistan: 24 died in two days of heavy downpour in Karachi HARYANA AND PUNJAB: HARYANA AND PUNJAB ON HIGH ALERT AHEAD OF THE VERDICT ON THE DERA SACHA SAUDA CHIEF ON AUGUST 25TH The Haryana police will seal the state border as a preventive measure before a special CBI court announces its verdict in the rape case involving Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh on August 25 th. On Sunday (August 20 th ), the police carried out search operations using bomb disposal squads and anti-sabotage squads in Panchkula and Sirsa. The Haryana government has imposed prohibitory orders in the state. Security forces have been pressed into service in border areas and the central government has already been requested to provide 115 companies of paramilitary forces. The administration also deployed additional police forces at Dera Sacha Sauda where the dera chief addressed a 30-minute 'Monthly Majlis' on Sunday. In view of a possible unrest in the state on August 25 th, the day the CBI court in Chandigarh is slated to give its verdict on Dera Sacha Sauda chief Ram Rahim Singh, the district administration in Gurgaon imposed Section 144 with immediate effect on the bulk sale of fuel. The administration has issued instructions to owners of petrol pumps to not sell petrol and diesel in bulk to people. Petrol pump owners have been restricted from seeking fuel in cans. The order will be in effect till August 26 th. The Haryana police is closely monitoring social media activities and talks are being held with officers of neighbouring States including Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh for cooperation in maintaining law and order situation. Punjab is on high alert ahead of a Haryana court s verdict this week in a rape case against Dera Sacha Sauda chief and has received 75 companies of central forces to maintain law and order. Meanwhile, Punjab Director General of Police, yesterday, visited Bathinda and other sensitive districts bordering Haryana for a first-hand assessment of the security arrangements. Besides Bhatinda, Arora also visited Mansa, Moga, Patiala, Ludhiana, Fatehgarh Sahib and Mohali towns. Heavy police deployment has been made in Bathinda, which shares its India Risk Tracker 23 RD August2017 Page 1

2 border with Sirsa, where the headquarters of Dera Sacha Sauda are located. The Haryana government, meanwhile, has imposed prohibitory orders in the state and the central government has been requested to provide 115 companies of paramilitary forces. All borders between the states have been sealed and inter-state and inter-district activities of vehicles are being closely monitored. Analysis: The special CBI court in Panchkula is to pronounce its verdict in a rape case in which Sirsa-based Dera Sacha Sauda chief is the accused. After hearing final arguments in the 15-year-old case, special CBI judge Jagdeep Singh had reserved orders for August 25 th. Following the possibility of unrest if the verdict goes against the Dera chief, alert has been sounded in Punjab and Haryana. The administration is apprehensive that Gurmeet's followers 'dera premis' might disturb the law and order situation if the verdict goes against the preacher. After facing criticism for failing to contain the followers of another controversial preacher, Rampal from Adampur near Hisar, after he defied court orders to arrest him and the violence during Jat agitation for reservation in February 2016, Haryana police have stepped up surveillance around the Dera headquarters in Sirsa. Earlier, in March, in the wake of the Jat agitation, the Gurgaon administration had ordered a ban on supply of more than 10 litres of fuel to tractor drivers. It had also asked fuel pumps to collect details of tractor drivers. The district administration of Sirsa said anyone can inform the administration about any damage to public property on the DC s mobile phone number DC Sirsa yesterday (August 22 nd ) addressed chiefs of 338 villages in the district and asked them to pass on relevant information to the SP on his mobile phone number Recommendations Due diligence is to be taken if travel is planned within the region. Delay may be expected due to vehicle checks in Gurgaon, Panchkula, Sirsa, Fatehabad, Jind and Hisar districts of Haryana. Avoid the routes specified by the traffic police. Keep someone informed about your whereabouts. Plan you commute considering likely delays on city roads and at airport and railway stations. Avoid visiting areas around the Panchkula district court. Monitor the local developments to stay updated on the ground situation DELHI: AAP TO HOLD DHARNA OUTSIDE UNION MINISTER HARSIMRAT KAUR BADAL S DELHI RESIDENCE ON AUGUST 24TH AAP, yesterday (August 22 nd ), decided to stage a dharna outside Union minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal s residence in Delhi on August 24 th to protest against the Centre s decision of extending industrial incentives to the hill states. The Leader of Opposition in Punjab Assembly Sukhpal Khaira alleged that discriminatory concessions to the neighbouring hill states have affected the industry of Punjab by denying it a level playing field. According to AAP leaders, Harsimrat Badal is a signatory to the anti-punjab decision of the Union Cabinet. Analysis: Earlier this month, the Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had said that industries in the northeastern and Himalayan states will continue to get tax exemption till March 2027, albeit as refund, under the current GST regime which was rolled out on July 1 st. The Vajpayee government had announced major tax concessions to the hill states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand and others. The said policy of tax holiday to these states, was carried forward by the Manmohan Singh-led Congress government for 10 more years. Now the Modi India Risk Tracker 23 RD August 2017 Page 2

3 government has decided to extend for another 10 years the tax benefits available to these hill states. As per AAP, this decision of successive central governments has left a devastating effect on small and medium scale industries in Punjab. Opposing the Centre s decision to extend special incentives to the hill states, Chief Minister Amarinder Singh had on August 18 th said that he would pursue Punjab s demand for extending similar incentives to the border areas and Kandi (sub mountainous) belt. The agrarian economy of Punjab has already collapsed due to colossal debt burden of over Rs one lakh crore, forcing farmers to commit suicides in large number. Recommendations Cater for increased security around, Union minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal s residence on Safdarjung Road and surrounding areas during the protest. Traffic diversions may be put in place, if there are a large number of protesters. Recommended to stay away from the protest site to avoid incidental risks. Monitor the local developments closely to stay updated on the situation DELHI AND GUJARAT: IN DELHI, 37 SWINE FLU DEATHS IN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT HOSPITALS SINCE JANUARY; TWO MORE SWINE FLU DEATHS REPORTED IN AHMEDABAD Even as the Delhi government claims that five swine flu deaths have been reported in Delhi, the central government hospitals have confirmed at least 37 deaths, including 22 residents of the city since January. Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital recorded at least 22 deaths due to swine flu, including 13 from Delhi, seven from Uttar Pradesh and two from Haryana. According to official data, at least four deaths due to swine flu have been reported at AIIMS; the hospital has reported 27 positive cases of swine flu this season. However, senior officials in the Delhi government, meanwhile, stated that five people have succumbed to the infection this year including two residents of Delhi. Official data claims that Delhi has recorded 1,556 cases of swine flu. Meanwhile, in Gujarat, the death toll due to swine flu infection since January this year has reached 288, as eight more deaths were reported yesterday (August 22 nd ). As per a health bulletin issued by the state government last evening, eight persons infected with H1N1 virus died in different parts of the state, while 193 new cases were registered. Two deaths were reported in Ahmedabad and one each in Vadodara, Surat, Rajkot, Surat district, Anand district and Kutch district. At present, 1,877 H1N1-infected people are being treated in hospitals across Gujarat. Of them, 22 are on ventilator support, while eight others died in the last 24 hours, the bulletin said. Recommendations Symptoms High fever Unexpected cough, body aches and chill Headache and fatigue Cough and cold Muscle twist and sore problems Sneezing and running nose is common Lack of appetite Short of breath India Risk Tracker 23 RD August 2017 Page 3

4 Diarrhea and vomiting Precautions For mild swine flu, it is better to take appropriate rest Drinking plenty of water is recommended At the serious cases, consult your physicians and start taking antiviral medication Spread by direct contact, so keep away from such people Sneezing droplets of may accumulate on doorknob, drinking glass, towel, etc., clean it properly Anti-flu medications should start after consultation with the doctor Covering the mouth and nose while coughing and sneezing Used mask while going close to the infected person Maintaining high level of hygiene is utmost important Surface sanitization is also important Fever medicine may be taken after consultation of your doctor RAJASTHAN: SECTION 144 IMPOSED IN BHARATPUR OVER LAUNCH OF JAT AGITATION IN BHARATPUR AND DHOLPUR FROM TODAY (AUGUST 23RD) Section 144 was enforced in Bharatpur district while security was also been intensified in Bharatpur and Dholpur districts of the state, ahead of the Jat agitation for OBC status. Additional forces were deployed in the region to maintain law and order. Senior police officers were also in touch with the senior leaders and have appealed them to maintain law and order. Jat leaders were seen visiting various villages in Dholpur and Bharatpur district and asked communities to gather in large numbers. The agitation by the Jat Aarakshan Sangarsh Samiti will commence on 23 August where they will also suspend the supply of water and milk. Recommendations: Due diligence is to be taken if travel is planned to Bharatpur and Dholpur. Delay may be expected due to vehicle checks in Bharatpur district. Avoid the routes specified by the traffic police. Keep someone informed about your whereabouts. Plan you commute considering likely delays on city roads and at airport and railway stations. Goods scheduled to be delivered might face delay in delivery. Monitor the local developments to stay updated on the ground situation UTTAR PRADESH: DELHI-BOUND KAIFIYAT EXPRESS DERAILS IN AURAIYA DISTRICT OF UP, 74 INJURED IN THE ACCIDENT 10 coaches of the Delhi-bound Kaifiyat Express derailed in Auraiya district of Uttar Pradesh today (August 23 rd ) morning, resulting in injuries to at least 74 people. This is the second rail accident in the State in four days. The train travelling from Azamgarh to Delhi collided with a dumper between Pata and Achalda railway stations today. The engine, power car, four general coaches B-2-H1-A2-A1-S10 have derailed. Officials have rushed to India Risk Tracker 23 RD August 2017 Page 4

5 the spot to provide rescue and relief operations to the passengers. UP s Principal Secretary stated that the rescue operation is over. All passenger trains scheduled to run on Kanpur-Tundla route have been cancelled and more than 40 trains were diverted after Kaifiyat Express derailed. Northern Central Railway (NCR) Chief stated that the trains that have been cancelled include the Kanpur-New Delhi Shatabdi Express, the Lucknow-Agra Cantt. intercity express, the Lucknow-New Delhi Gomti Express along with all other passenger trains. NCR Chief further added that an Accident Relief Train (ART) train has reached the spot for rerailment and the railway line will soon be operational. Recommendations: Train Travel delays may be expected due to the ongoing track inspection and rescue work. Check for the live train timing is scheduled to travel today on this route. Stay updated on the ground situation using the IRCTC app and railway website. The Indian Railways has issued help line numbers. DM Auraiya ( ); SP Auraiya ( ); SHO Auraiya (Hospital Duty) ( ); ADM Auraiya ( ); Adl. Sp. Auraiya ( ); CMO Auraiya ( ); CO Bidhuna ( ); SHO Achalda ( ); SHO Phafoond ( ) NATIONAL: FLOOD SITUATION WORSENS IN BIHAR IN BIHAR; FLOOD SITUATION SHOWS IMPROVEMENT IN ASSAM AND WEST BENGAL Bihar: The floods in Bihar continue to depredate the properties in various districts and brought life to a halt. As per Bihar government records, 7,61,774 people have been evacuated to safe places by the rescue teams of the Army, the National Disaster Response Force, and the State Disaster Response Force, while the government has set up 1,085 relief camps in which 2,29,097 people are living. Till yesterday (August 22 nd ), 341 people have lost their lives in the state due to floods..overflowing rivers from Nepal have played a major spoilsport in four northeastern districts Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia and Katihar. Supaul, Saharsa, Bagha, Gopalganj, Madhubani, Sitamarhi, Khagaria, Darbhanga and Madhepura districts are the other districts which have been affected by floods. According to a road construction department a total 203 state highways and other roads under it were damaged in flood waters in different places out of which 95 per cent have been repaired and made motorable. Light to moderate rainfall occurred at one or two places in the state since yesterday as the southwest monsoon is getting weak in the state, the MeT department has said. Uttar Pradesh: The flood situation in Uttar Pradesh remained grim, till yesterday (August 22 nd ) there were reports of 10 more deaths, taking the toll to 82 in the current wave of floods in the state. 2,855 villages in 25 districts are inundated affecting a population of over 22 lakh. Around 50,000 people have taken shelter in relief camps in the affected districts of eastern UP. 26 companies of NDRF, 30 companies of PAC (flood) along with two choppers of the Indian Air Force (IAF) and several columns of the Army personnel are working on rescue and relief operations. The worst affected districts, include Siddharthnagar, Balrampur, Maharajganj, Gonda, Basti and Gorakhpur. Rivers, including the Ghaghra, Rapti, Rohin, Budhi Rapti and Ghoghi are in spate. The Sharda was flowing above the red mark at Palia Kalan and near the danger mark at Shardanagar while Ghaghra was flowing above the red mark at Elgin Bridge, Ayodhya and Turtipar (Ballia). River Rapti was also flowing well above the red mark at Rigauli and Birdghat (Gorakhpur), while Budhi Rapti was above the danger level at Kakrahi (Siddharth Nagar), rivers Rohin and Quano were flowing above danger mark at Trimohini Ghat (Mahrajganj) and Chandradeep Ghat (Gonda). India Risk Tracker 23 RD August 2017 Page 5

6 Assam: The flood situation eased in Assam with water receding and no fresh deaths being reported. With the water receding from human habitation and agricultural fields in the state, it has given relief to more people in the 12 affected districts of the state. Altogether lakh people, against yesterday's lakh people, were hit by the floods that have submerged 9,000 hectares of farm fields. The districts still affected include Dhemaji, Lakhimpur, Barpeta, Chirang, Kokrajhar, Dhubri, South Salmara, Goalpara, Morigaon, Nagaon, Golaghat and Majuli. Water of the Brahmaputra river was still flowing above the danger mark at Nimatighat at Jorhat and Dhubri town, while Dhansiri river is flowing above the danger mark at Numaligarh in Golaghat and Kopili river at Dharamtul in Nagaon district. With floods ravaging West Bengal and Bihar, train services between northeastern states and the rest of India remained cut off for the 11th day, yesterday (August 22 nd ), affecting supply of essentials to the region. The Northeast Frontier Railway (NFR), which serves seven districts in West Bengal and five districts in north Bihar besides the seven northeastern states, is working on a war footing to restore railway services. All the trains between northeastern states and the rest of India pass through New Jalpaiguri station in north Bengal and Katihar station in Bihar. The railway services between the northeast and rest of India are likely to be restored by the first week of September. In view of an alleged inordinate rise in air fares following disruption of train services, the chief minister also requested Union Minister of State for Civil Aviation Jayant Sinha to maintain "reasonable fare" of flights to the Northeast. West Bengal: The situation in the six-flood hit districts of north Bengal too has improved a lot in the absence of major rainfall and people have started returning to their homes. There has been no report of any fresh death in the flood-hit six districts of Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Coochbehar, North Dinajpur, South Dinajpur and Malda. Floods in West Bengal have claimed 152 lives so far and affected around 1.5 crore people. Water has started receding from the flood-hit areas in these districts. Trains, however, did not ply in the region as rail tracks remained inundated. Recommendations: Rainfall: Follow all the precautions from the weather department and the administration. It is advised to avoid venturing out to low lying areas or areas close to the coast. Advised not to park vehicles underneath trees or lamp posts. Keep emergency lights and mobile phones and back up battery charge) charged. Stock adequate quantities of candles and match sticks. As a precautionary measure, emergency numbers should be saved on the speed dial list and kept in full display in the house. Floods: Flash floods develop quickly. Do not wait for the water to rise Evacuate immediately, if you think you are at risk or are advised to do so Avoid visiting/passing through low lying areas during the high tide period and till water recedes Do not drive through flooded roads Never try to walk or swim through flowing water Cater for travel delays due to traffic diversions and people taking alternate routes Train services could be hampered; check the status of long distance trains India Risk Tracker 23 RD August 2017 Page 6

7 Take adequate precautions to avoid seasonal diseases Have your mobile phone fully charged before moving out; conserve your battery and carry power banks Carry a small hammer in your car to force open a window, if required If stuck in flooding, find a higher ground to take shelter Participate in disaster management mock drills conducted by your organisation Always rely on trusted sources for information; do partake in rumour mongering Do not congest the communication network with unnecessary calls Do not stand under an electric pole or under weak trees. Always prefer to stand in open spaces Monitor weather updates from the meteorological department REGIONAL SNAPSHOT BANGLADESH: WEEK OF HEAVY RAIN PREDICTED, CHANCE OF FLOODING IN DHAKA The Bangladesh Meteorological Department said rain that began on Tuesday will continue until the first week of September that may cause flooding in Dhaka. The Met office warned that Dhaka might experience some flooding, as prolonged heavy rains will cause the Buriganga, Balu, Shitalakhya and Turag rivers to break their banks. Recommendations: Flash floods develop quickly. Do not wait for the water to rise. Evacuate immediately, if you think you are at risk or are advised to do so. Avoid visiting/passing through low lying areas during the high tide period and till water recedes. Do not drive through flooded roads. Cater for travel delays due to traffic diversions and people taking alternate routes. Train services could be hampered; check the status of long distance trains. Take adequate precautions to avoid seasonal diseases. Have your mobile phone fully charged before moving out; conserve your battery and carry power banks. Participate in disaster management mock drills conducted by your organisation. Always rely on trusted sources for information; do partake in rumour mongering. Do not congest the communication network with unnecessary calls. Do not stand under an electric pole or under weak trees. Always prefer to stand in open spaces. Monitor weather updates from the meteorological department India Risk Tracker 23 RD August 2017 Page 7

8 NEPAL: VIRAL DISEASES STRIKES PEOPLE IN LANDSLIDE-AFFECTED AREAS Viral diseases have downed hundreds of people in the landslide-affected areas. Complaints of cold, headache, fever and soar throats, among others, are common among people in the two wards. Complaints of cold, headache, fever and soar throats, among others, are common among people in the two wards. Pollution and consumption of contaminated food and water are the main reasons behind these outbreaks. Recommendations Getting plenty of bed rest. Drinking lots of fluids. Taking medicine to reduce fever. Avoid aspirin but paracetamol is considered safe. Employees must be educated on the details of the mosquito-borne disease, and must be advised to visit a doctor should they themselves or a family member exhibit the mentioned symptoms over two or more days. For mild flu, it is better to take appropriate rest. Drinking plenty of water is recommended. At the serious cases, consult your physicians and start taking antiviral medication. Spread by direct contact, so keep away from such people. Sneezing droplets of may accumulate on doorknob, drinking glass, towel, etc., clean it properly. Anti-flu medications should start after consultation with the doctor. Covering the mouth and nose while coughing and sneezing. Used mask while going close to the infected person SRI LANKA: TRADE UNIONS TO STRIKE AGAINST NEW INLAND REVENUE DRAFT BILL TOMORROW (AUGUST 24TH) The Trade Union Joint Committee of the Inland Revenue service has called for a strike tomorrow (August 24th) to protest against the proposed Inland Revenue Draft Bill that is to be presented on August 25th in parliament. Meanwhile, the Minister of Finance has stated that several sections of the bill were amended according to a recent Supreme Court judgement. Recommendations: Cater for increased security in Colombo tomorrow. It is advised to stay away from the protest sites to avoid incidental risks. Monitor local news media and be in touch with your colleagues at host location for updates. Be prepared for delays and plan your commute accordingly. Advised to follow the local traffic advisories to stay updated on the ground situation PAKISTAN: 24 DIED IN TWO DAYS OF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IN KARACHI After an overnight pause, heavy downpour lashed Karachi again yesterday (August 23rd). At least six people were killed in rain-related incidents, bringing the death toll to 24 in the past two days. Several neighbourhoods India Risk Tracker 23 RD August 2017 Page 8

9 of the metropolitan city plunged into darkness last night (August 23rd) after more than 250 feeders of K- Electric tripped following heavy rain and thunderstorm. Recommendations Flash floods develop quickly. Do not wait for the water to rise. Evacuate immediately, if you think you are at risk or are advised to do so. Avoid visiting/passing through low lying areas during the high tide period and till water recedes. Do not drive through flooded roads. Cater for travel delays due to traffic diversions and people taking alternate routes. Train services could be hampered; check the status of long distance trains. Take adequate precautions to avoid seasonal diseases. Have your mobile phone fully charged before moving out; conserve your battery and carry power banks. Participate in disaster management mock drills conducted by your organisation. Always rely on trusted sources for information; do partake in rumour mongering. Do not congest the communication network with unnecessary calls. Do not stand under an electric pole or under weak trees. Always prefer to stand in open spaces. Monitor weather updates from the meteorological department Disclaimer: This advisory is based on analysis of open source information. Recipients must monitor local environmental conditions to ensure security and business continuity. To subscribe to a daily risk update of India and neighbouring regions, please click here Visit us at Follow Us On MUMBAI DELHI NCR BENGALURU SINGAPORE 511, ASCOT CENTRE, 9, 4TH FLOOR, 127, 2ND CROSS 101 CECIL STREET, OFF SAHAR ROAD, TIME SQUARE, 6TH BLOCK, TONG ENG BUILDING, NEAR HYATT REGENCY, SUSHANT LOK 1 KORAMANGALA, SINGAPORE ANDHERI (EAST), GURGAON BENGALURU MUMBAI India Risk Tracker 23 RD August 2017 Page 9

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