When should scientists keep their mouths shut?
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1 When should scientists keep their mouths shut? Tina Liu Censorship in the past: recombinant DNA research Ann Fiegen Censorship today: A dangerous flu virus created? How and why. Kevin Bonham Weighing the risks: how do we proceed?
2 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
3 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
4 The 1918 Spanish Flu Lasted from Jan 1918 to Dec 1920 Between million people killed (3-6% of the world population) About 27% of humans were infected ~ 10-20% mortality Wikimedia commons
5 Recipe for Danger Highly transmissible + High mortality = Deadly pandemic Wikimedia commons
6 Recipe for Danger Highly transmissible + High mortality = Deadly pandemic Wikimedia commons
7 Recipe for Danger Highly transmissible + High mortality = Deadly pandemic Wikimedia commons
8 Spanish Flu, Bird Flu and Ferret Flu Highly infectious (transmissible from human to human) High mortality rate in humans Not transmissible from human to human (yet) High mortality rate in humans (as high as 60%*) Unknown personperson transmission Unknown mortality rate in humans Wikimedia commons
9 Brief Interlude on Mortality # of deaths attributed to H5N1 # of clinically confirmed cases of H5N1 = H5N1 Mortality (~60%)
10 QUESTIONS?
11 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
12 Biosafety containment BSL2 BSL3 BSL4 Wikimedia commons
13 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
14 What Was Censored?
15 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus? Bits of DNA Sequence Enzymes DNA building blocks
16 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus?
17 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus? Virus Genes Cells
18 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus?
19 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus? Virus Genes Cells Virus
20 Is this process easier than repeating serial passage experiment? This is possible without knowing anything about the genetic sequence of the virus The resulting mutations might be completely different
21 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) By nature What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
22 Interspecies transmission may happen regardless of human intervention
23 QUESTIONS?
24 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) By nature What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
25 H5N1 Studies: Benefits Surveillance Pandemic control Virus evolution Vaccines Drugs
26 Science Works Best When Information is Freely Shared
27 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) By nature What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
28 The Life of Risky Research Funding? X Risky ResearchX Threat of Inaction Positive outcomes Negative Consequences
29 The Path Forward is Up to Us Scientists have an obligation to communicate the risks and rewards of their research Policy makers and the public should try to stay informed Scientists need to be proactive in addressing risk and self-regulating
30 Summary The dangers of pandemic flu are real (though often exaggerated) Ferret flu research has a risk of releasing dangerous virus (due to accident or malicious intent) Risk is unknown The withheld data does not necessarily eliminate the risk There are also dangers to not doing the research Scientists must engage with the public and with policy makers to communicate risks and benefits of dual-use research
31 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
32 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
33 The 1918 Spanish Flu Lasted from Jan 1918 to Dec 1920 Between million people killed (3-6% of the world population) About 27% of humans were infected ~ 10-20% mortality Wikimedia commons
34 Recipe for Danger Highly transmissible + High mortality = Deadly pandemic Wikimedia commons
35 Recipe for Danger Highly transmissible + High mortality = Deadly pandemic Wikimedia commons
36 Recipe for Danger Highly transmissible + High mortality = Deadly pandemic Wikimedia commons
37 Spanish Flu, Bird Flu and Ferret Flu Highly infectious (transmissible from human to human) High mortality rate in humans Not transmissible from human to human (yet) High mortality rate in humans (as high as 60%*) Unknown personperson transmission Unknown mortality rate in humans Wikimedia commons
38 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) What are the dangers of censoring the data?
39 Biosafety containment BSL2 BSL3 BSL4 Wikimedia commons
40 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
41 Is this process easier than repeating serial passage experiment? This is possible without knowing anything about the genetic sequence of the virus The resulting mutations might be completely different
42 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus? Bits of DNA Sequence Enzymes DNA building blocks
43 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus?
44 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus? Virus Genes Cells
45 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus?
46 How do you turn a genetic sequence into virus? Virus Genes Cells Virus
47 Is this process easier than repeating serial passage experiment? This is possible without knowing anything about the genetic sequence of the virus The resulting mutations might be completely different
48 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) By nature What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
49 Interspecies transmission may happen regardless of human intervention
50 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) By nature What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
51 H5N1 Studies: Benefits Surveillance Pandemic control Virus evolution Vaccines Drugs
52 Science works as a network
53 What s the Harm? The danger of an outbreak worst case scenario (1918) How could the virus be released? By scientists (by accident) By terrorists (on purpose) By nature What are the dangers of censoring the data? Where do we go from here?
54 Summary The dangers of pandemic flu are real (though often exaggerated) Ferret flu research has a risk of releasing dangerous virus (due to accident or malicious intent) Risk is unknown The withheld data does not necessarily decrease the risk There are also dangers to not doing the research
55 Thank you! SITN would like to acknowledge the following organizations for their generous support. Harvard Medical School Office of Communications and External Relations Division of Medical Sciences The Harvard Graduate School of Arts and Sciences (GSAS) The GASA Graduate Student Council (GSC) The Harvard Biomedical Graduate Students Organization (BGSO) The Harvard/MIT COOP
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