Beliefs Can Influence What you See and Don t See

Transcription

1 LP 2D Beliefs 1 Beliefs Can Influence What you See and Don t See Your beliefs can affect how you interpret reality. Once you interpret reality through your beliefs, it is difficult to see alternative realities. What are examples where your beliefs about the world affect your interpretation of it? What are other examples where beliefs affect your interpretation of reality? Why is it important to realize that beliefs influence what you perceive? How do scientists reduce the problem of their own beliefs affecting their ability to be impartial?

2 LP 2D Beliefs 2 Beliefs Influencing What You See and Don t See Image source: Psychology (1995), Myers If you believe in the Loch Ness Monster, you are More likely to interpret this image as a monster in the lake More likely to enhance your belief in the Loch Ness Monster

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4 LP 2D Beliefs 4 Beliefs Influencing Interpretation of Information Image source: unknown If you have no idea what this image is, it is very difficult to see the picture. However, once you know what you are suppose to look for, It is almost impossible to unsee the picture. Three months from now, you will probably see the image quickly It is almost impossible to imagine how you could not have seen the image before.

5 LP 2D Beliefs 5 Beliefs Influencing Interpretation of Information Image source: When Sparks Fly (1999), Leonard and Swap Boris and Ming have different views of humanity. These different views influence what information to pay attention to, how to interpret it and what public policies to enact.

6 LP 2D Beliefs 6 Beliefs Influencing Interpretation of Information

7 Beliefs Influencing Interpretation of Behavior LP 2D Beliefs 7 Image source:

8 LP 2D Beliefs 8 Beliefs Influence Behavior Image source: Which belief about men is more likely to lead to a dependent and/or abusive relationship?

9 LP 2D Beliefs 9 Beliefs Can Influence the Interpretation of Evidence that Should Decrease the Confidence in a Hypothesis In principle, evidence supporting a belief should strengthen it and the lack of evidence should disconfirm or decrease the confidence in these claims. Strongly held beliefs can interfere with our ability to assess the quality of evidence. The lack of evidence should weaken our belief in these claims, but strong beliefs can twist the evidence to support our beliefs. This distortion can occur to protect our view of the world. Image source: Classics of Western Literature, Bloom County , (1990), Berke Breathed

10 Beliefs Can Interfere with the Interpretation of Evidence LP 2D Beliefs 10 The following claims take the form Heads I win, tails you lose. Conspiracy theories: Is the CIA hiding evidence? (a) If we find the secret base, we knew the CIA was lying (b) If we don t find the secret base, the CIA is just very good at concealing bases Leeches healing properties: Do leeches work? (a) If the patient survives, leeches work (b) If the patient dies, we didn t use enough or didn t use them early enough The Japanese are sneaky: During WWII, were the Japanese sneaky and spying for mainland Japan? (a) If we find the Japanese spying, they are sneaky (b) If we don t find the Japanese spying, they are so sneaky we just haven t caught them yet. Saddam Huessien has Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) (a) If we find WMDs, he lied and had WMDs. (b) If we don t find WMDs, he lied and is really good at hiding them.

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12 LP 2D Beliefs 12 You have a strong need for other people to like you and for them to admire you. At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved. You have a great deal of unused energy which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself on being an independent thinker and do not accept other opinions without satisfactory proof. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. Some of your aspirations tend to be unrealistic. After receiving an individual copy of this personality description, 39 students rated on a scale of 0 (poor) to 5 (perfect) the degree to which the personality sketch described their personality. The following results were obtained. Rating Number of Percentage students 5 Perfect match 16 41% % % 2 1 3% Poor match 0

13 Why do we need a scientific method when the outcome seems so obvious? LP 2D Beliefs 13 Often the outcome is not always obvious or intuitive (see Survey of Psychological Beliefs) When we casually test our beliefs we can use biased thinking strategies to see and what we want to see and believe what we want to believe. Most people are not aware of systematic biases and errors in how we assess our own beliefs. Our beliefs o influence what we see and don t see and how we evaluate information automatically and unconsciously, o make it difficult to see alternative points of view, o increase the odds of using biased thinking strategies to maintain current beliefs and we make false conclusions about the world around us.

14 Why do we need a scientific method when the outcome seems so obvious? LP 2D Beliefs 14 Most people recognize that beliefs affect us and there are biases that affect perception and thinking. It isn t enough to know this. The influence of beliefs is hard to recognize because the process is usually automatic and unconscious. You need to know specifically how beliefs affect us and how one is biased. Without understanding specifically how you are biased and how these biases occur, you can t take countermeasures to reduce the bias. As an analogy, Most people know that stage magicians are tricking them and don t honestly believe in magic. If you don t know how the magician is tricking you, you will still be taken in by the trick. Understanding the biases that affect perception is the same. If you don t know how you are being misled, you going to take the wrong corrective action and allow the deception to continue.

15 LP 2D Beliefs 15 Jon Stewart: Jon Stewart as Nancy Pelosi: Jon Stewart: Jon Stewart as Nancy Pelosi: If money corrupts the process, and you have to get money, then you are corrupted by the process (short version) No, it corrupts them. Why doesn t it corrupt you? We aren t corruptible. Jon Stewart: Really, because that is what an insane person would say. Jon Stewart: Ice cream makes them fat, it doesn t make us fat. Ice cream, that is how we metabolize it. You know why? We know it is bad for you. If you know it is bad for you, it doesn t effect you.

16 LP 2D Beliefs 16 Why do we need a scientific method when the outcome seems so obvious? Why measure and collect empirical data? We can be easily fooled. With the following it is easy to see the illusion and how we are fooled, but with some psychological phenomena, we are unaware of the illusion and how we fool ourselves. Image source: unknown Image source: ( ), Fiest

17 LP 2D Beliefs 17 Poor Logic: Monty Python and the Quest for the Holy Grail Sir Bediveire: Townfolk: Sir Bediveire: Townfolk: Sir Bediveire: Why do witches burn? (Pause) Because they are made out of wood? How do you tell if she is made out of wood? Build a bridge out of her Ah! Can you not build a bridge out of stone? Does wood sink in water? What else floats? Townfolk: King Arthur: Sir Bediveire: Townfolk: Sir Bediveire: Townfolk: Apples, very small rocks, bits of gravy A duck Exactly! Logically, if she weights the same as a duck then she is made of wood Therefore A witch!

18 LP 2D Beliefs 18 Problems with casually testing beliefs The following are tricks that can mislead you. It is easier to notice the following tricks because (a) I am instructing you to look for the trick. (b) These examples are written and you can see and read them compared to only hearing them. (c) These apparent discrepancies are occurring close together in time. The following are statements lead the reader to infer something that isn t what the empirical evidence uncovers. No battery outlasts Eveready No battery outlasts Energizer No battery outlasts Duracell If you don t know how you are being misled, you will take the wrong corrective measures and allow the deception to continue and continue in different forms. no other pain reliever is more effective than Bayer no other pain reliever is more effective than Excedrin no one beats our prices The following misleads you in a different way that the previous three examples. A survey in a major medical journal says that 8 of 10 people take a supplement to live a longer life

19 Problems with casually testing a belief LP 2D Beliefs 19 To illustrate specific problems of how beliefs interfere with our ability to assess beliefs, I will use a common belief that women are bad drivers and show how the same process takes place when evaluating other beliefs. When many people state this belief, they tend to commit three basic errors: Problem 1: People tend to search for evidence that tends to confirm their belief (the confirmation bias). They think of all the women they know that are bad drivers. Men Women Good Drivers Bad Drivers Think of women who are bad drivers Chris, Melanie, Lorna Problem 2: People tend to use different criteria when evaluating evidence. Different criteria and explanations are used for the same behavior. o He ran the red light because he had no other choice. We won, they lost o She ran the red light because she was reckless. Problem 3: Disconfirming evidence is explained away. When one comes across a good driver who is a woman, people say she isn t really a woman. This is common with racial stereotypes and called subtyping.

20 LP 2D Beliefs 20 Problems with Casually Testing Beliefs: We use Different Standards for the Same Behavior Looted Found We won, they lost

21 LP 2D Beliefs 21 Problems with Casually Testing Beliefs: We use Different Standards for the Same Behavior

22 LP 2D Beliefs 22 Problems with Casually Testing Beliefs: We use Different Standards for the Same Behavior

23 LP 2D Beliefs 23 Applying Problems with Casually Testing Beliefs Broadly These problems in casually testing a belief can lead to an illusory correlation. Free Busy Not in a hurry In a hurry You think of all the times the bank machine is busy when you are in a hurry Good Policies Bad Policies Democrats Republicans

24 LP 2D Beliefs 24 Applying Problems with Casually Testing Beliefs Broadly If we believe that women are bad drivers, we can fool ourselves that it is true and maintain this belief when we casually test a belief by 1. Using the confirmation bias 2. Using different standards for the same behavior 3. Subtyping inconsistent information There is a belief that dog people are friendlier than cat people (you can reverse this if you are a cat person). Illustrate how you can maintain the belief that dog people are friendlier than cat people even when confronted with evidence that would show it isn t true by 1. Using the confirmation bias 2. Using different standards for the same behavior 3. Subtyping inconsistent information