RACE, RISK, & BIAS: What is the evidence? SARAH L. DESMARAIS, PH.D.
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1 RACE, RISK, & BIAS: What is the evidence? SARAH L. DESMARAIS, PH.D. NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY Justice And Mental Health Collaboration Program And Second Chance Act National Conferences December 17, 2015
2 Risk Assessment in the U.S. Rise in risk assessment in correctional settings in U.S. As of 2012, > 60 different risk assessment tools >20 broad and general use >40 for use in specific jurisdictions Desmarais & Singh (2013)
3 Risk Assessment in the U.S. 1. Correctional Offender Management Profile for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) 2. Inventory of Offender Risks, Needs, and Strengths (IORNS) 3. Level of Service (LS) instruments 4. Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS) 5. Ohio Risk Assessment System (ORAS) 6. Federal Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) 7. Risk Management System (RMS) 8. Salient Factor Score instruments (SFS) 9. Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) 10. Service Planning Instruments (SPIn) 11. Static Risk and Offender Needs Guide (STRONG) 12. Wisconsin Risk and Needs (WRN) instruments Desmarais & Singh (2013)
4 Concerns Regarding Potential Bias By basing sentencing decisions on static factors and immutable characteristics like the defendant s education level, socioeconomic background, or neighborhood they may exacerbate unwarranted and unjust disparities. Holder (2014) 4
5 INSTRUMENTS TYPES OF ITEMS Risk Protective Static Dynamic COMPAS X X X IORNS X X X X LSI-R X X X LSI-R:SV X X X ORAS-PAT X X X ORAS-CST X X X ORAS-CSST X X X ORAS-PIT X X X ORAS-RT X X X PCRA X X X RMS X X X SAQ X X X SFS74 X X SFS76 X X SFS81 X X SPIn-W X X X X STRONG a X X WRN X X X WRN-R X X X Desmarais & Singh (2013)
6 Concerns Regarding Potential Bias The fact is, risk today has collapsed into prior criminal history, and prior criminal history has become a proxy for race. The combination of these two trends means that using risk assessment tools [in sentencing] is going to significantly aggravate the unacceptable racial disparities in our criminal justice system. Harcourt (2010) 6
7 INSTRUMENTS Attitudes Associates / Peers Criminal History Personality Problems ITEM CONTENT DOMAINS Relationships Work/ School Recreation/ Leisure Substance Use Mental Health COMPAS X X X X X X X X X X IORNS X X X X X X X X LSI-R X X X X X X X X X X LSI-R:SV X X X X X X X ORAS-PAT X X X X ORAS-CST X X X X X X X X X ORAS-CSST X X X X ORAS-PIT X X X X X X X X X ORAS-RT X X X X X X X PCRA X X X X X X RMS X X X X X X X X X SAQ X X X X X SFS74 X X X X SFS76 X X X SFS81 X X SPIn-W X X X X X X X X X STRONG X X WRN X X X X X X X WRN-R X X X X X X X Desmarais & Singh (2013) Housing
8 Summary of U.S. Research Findings Offender race/ethnicity reported in most samples (76.4%) Two-thirds White (60.8%), one-third (28.3%) Black, and 13.6% Hispanic Predictive validity reported by race/ethnicity in only three samples COMPAS (one sample) Identical for White and Black offenders LSI-R (two samples) Nearly identical, but slightly worse for White, Black, Hispanic, and non-white offenders Desmarais & Singh (2013)
9 Other Studies Meta-analysis of 128 studies (151 samples) examining LSI instruments Minority offenders received higher risk scores Slightly lower predictive validity for minority offenders Olver et al (2014)
10 Hot Off the Press Study of PCRA assessments on 35k federal offenders Black offenders received modestly higher risk scores than White offenders Attributable to differences in criminal history Strong predictive validity for Black and White offenders Evidence against criminal history as proxy for race Instead, criminal history mediated relationship between race and recidivism Skeem & Lowenkamp (2015)
11 Conclusion Few studies reporting on scores and validity by race/ethnicity Some evidence supporting predictive validity of structured risk assessment in offenders of diverse racial/ethnic groups Slightly lower predictive validity, but not significantly so Some support for specific instruments with racial/ethnic minorities COMPAS LSI-R PCRA
12 Thank you! Contact information: Dr. Sarah L. Desmarais Associate Professor Department of Psychology North Carolina State University Phone: (919) Faculty Page: Lab website:
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