2/16/2017 Frameworxs Tissue World 2017

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2 SOFTNESS THE HOLY GRAIL OF THE BATH AND FACIAL BUSINESS If you can t measure it you can t improve it! Wes McConnell, Ph.D.

3 PURPOSE The purpose of this presentation is to share the key learning and insights I have had regarding the measurement of tissue softness developed over the last 40 years. I call this my search for the Holy Grail of Tissue Softness

4 HOLY GRAIL The Holy Grail: A legendary vessel described in various traditions as a sacred vessel with miraculous powers that provides happiness, eternal youth, and infinite abundance. Many have searched their entire lives to find it, but none have succeeded.

5 BEGINNING OF THE SOFTNESS WARS

6 DON T SQUEEZE THE CHARMING 1973 P&G patented a new manufacturing technique that produced softer Charmin. The new toilet paper was softer, while the strength remained the same Mr. Whipple was named the third-best-known American just behind former President Nixon and Billy Graham. "Please don't squeeze the Charmin!" was named the most recognizable advertising slogan. Charmin toilet paper distribution was expanded to all 50 states in the U.S.

7 LEARNING #1 MAKE SURE SOFTNESS IS ON TARGET AND THEN TEACH THE CUSTOMERS LEARNING #2 BE CONSISTENT (Customers can be yours for 10, 20, + years...)

8 LEARNING #3 SOFTNESS IS IMPORTANT, REALLY IMPORTANT

9 VALUE OF SOFTNESS INSENSITIVITY TO PRICE $ HIGHER MARGINS $ HIGHER VOLUMES $ BRAND LEADERSHIP & RECOGNITION $ REDUCED MARKETING COSTS $ INSENSITIVE TO PRICE WARS $ HIGHER PROFIT IF YOU DIDN T HAVE IT, YOU COULD GO OUT OF BUSINESS

10 THE TALE OF THE THREE ROLLS

11 LEARNING #4: PEOPLE HAVE VERY DIFFERENT LEVELS OF SENSITIVITY TO SOFTNESS THE TALE OF THE THREE ROLLS 2/16/2017 Frameworxs Tissue World 2017

12 HOW TO MEASURE IT???? And WHO??? PHYSICAL PROPERTIES MARKETING MANAGER???? VICE PRESIDENT OF R&D? MARKETING RESEARCH?

13 INDIVIDUAL EXPERTS AND AUTHORITY FIGURES Frameworxs Tissue World 2017

14 LEARNING #5: SINGLE INDIVIDUALS OR VERY SMALL GROUPS (1-4) SHOULD NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOFTNESS SCALING

15 SIMPLE PAIRED RANK ORDERING Actual Sample A B C D E F G Sum NORMALIZED 20 A B C D E F G Panelists are given each pair to compare and to select the sample preferred. Samples are put in order and assigned a softness value proportional to the number of normalized votes.

16 RANK SCORE RANK ORDER SCALES CONSTRAINED TOP TO BOTTOM Rank Order Scaling ACTUAL GAP Standard Value

17 SIMPLE PAIRED COMPARISONS LEARNING #6: SIMPLE PAIRED COMPARISON METHODS LEAD TO MANY GAPS IN A SCALE AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO REPLACE STANDARDS ACCURATELY

18 PANEL METHOD SEARCH Simple Ranking Monadic Scaling Constant Sum Logistic Regression Triads Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) 7, Thomas Saaty, U of P Anchored, Magnitude Scaling Measurement of Consistency

19 MAGNITUDE SCALING

20 Panel Rating Scale (Information Rich, Anchored) Scale * Verbal Anchor Degree of Confidence Time (sec) 1 No Preference Confident there is no difference 3 Very Slight Preference Not confident <20 5 Moderate Preference Confident <15 7 Strong Preference Very Confident <10 9 Very Strong Preference Extremely Confident <5

21 MAGNITUDE SCALING A B A B 0:100 A Very Strong Preference Frameworxs Tissue World 2017 Equal Very Strong Preference B 2/16/2017

22 LEARNING #7 MAGNITUDE ESTIMATION GATHERS MUCH MORE INFORMATION FROM PANELISTS AND ALLOWS THE DETECTION OF MARKET SEGMENTS. EFFICIENCY

23 CONSISTENCY (BEAUTY CONTEST) We have best friends, Tom, Bill and Bob at a simple Beauty Contest. Each pair of Beauties is compared and the preferred Beauty is selected. A B C Because Tom and Bill are consistent, we must believe their choices. Bob is inconsistent and should be eliminated from the panel. SCENARIO #1 PAIR1 PAIR2 PAIR3 CONSISTENCY WES A>B B>C A>>C Consistent BILL C>B B>A C>>A Consistent X BOB A>B A>C C>>A Inconsistent 2/16/2017

24 LEARNING #8 THE ABILITY TO ACURATELY MEASURE CONSISTENCY GREATLY IMPROVES THE EFFICIENCY OF THE PANEL.

25 Magnitude Scale Example Results EQUAL

26 LEARNING # Individuals values softness differently. These differences also appear by geographical region.

27 LEARNING #8 continued PEOPLE CAN BE COMPLETELY CONSISTENT IN PREFERING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SAMPLES. THIS LEARNING PROVIDES A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SEGMENT THE MARKET USING PANELS AND MARKET RESEARCH.

28 BIG PROBLEM!!! We can t run a panel every time we want to test a prototype or decide if a sample is soft enough to ship. Solution: Develop an instrument that can be tuned to match the aggregate softness in any market Enter the TSA from EMTEC.

29 EMTEC S APPROACH MIMIC THE HAND NERVOUSE SYSTEM After studying the problem for several years, EMTEC took a different approach to the problem of mechanically measuring softness. Their approach was to mimic the nervous system of the human hand. The hypothesis was that softness activated different sensors in the hand that could be analyzed to predict softness. DESIGN THE INSTRUMENT TO BE TUNABLE Another key innovation was to make the instrument tunable so that different grades or segments within grades could be predicted.

30 MULTIPLE MECHANICO SENSOR NERVES

31 HAND NERVE FUNCTION (6) Tactile corpuscles (or Meissner's corpuscles) are a type of mechanoreceptor (6). They are a type of nerve ending in the skin that is responsible for sensitivity to light touch. In particular, they have highest sensitivity (lowest threshold) when sensing vibrations between 10 and 50 Hertz. They are rapidly adaptive receptors. They are most concentrated in thick hairless skin, especially at the finger pads. Location They are distributed on various areas of the skin, but concentrated in areas especially sensitive to light touch, such as the fingers and lips. [2][3][4][5][6] More specifically, they are primarily located in glabrous skin just beneath the epidermis within the dermal papillae. Age-related changes: The number of tactile corpuscles per square millimeter of human skin on the fingertips drops fourfold between the ages of 12 and 50. The rate at which they are lost correlates well with the age-related loss in touch sensitivity for small probes (Thornbury and Mistretta, 1981).

32 LEARNING #9 The human hand is an incredible machine which has evolved over millions of years. The sensory apparatus is a critical part of its workings. It makes sense that the nervous system has evolved differently over the world.

33 Emtec (TSA)can be tuned to match local & regional preferences BULKY B SS SMOOTH FLEXIBLE F

34 SECOND BIG PROBLEM Even though the TSA was tunable, many customers had a variety of ways to quantify softness, some good but others, not so good. In a joint study, Emtec and Frameworxs made a joint study to correlate TSA to a modern panel results using a series of US facial samples. The results are shown in the next graph where the panel results are plotted versus the TSA results.

35 TSA Internal Panel Scale CORRELATION BETWEEN TSA AND PANEL 60 TSA Results Versus Controls (Ref: 7,8) A MATCH MADE IN HEAVEN 39.66, , , , 25.4 y = x R² = Internal Softness Panel 4/5/2017 WES MCCONNELL, PH.D.

36 LEARNINGS 1. MAKE SURE SOFTNESS IS ON TARGET AND THEN TEACH YOUR CUSTOMERS 2. BE CONSISTENT (Customers can be yours for 10, 20, + years or more) 3. SOFTNESS IS IMPORTANT, REALLY IMPORTANT 4. PEOPLE HAVE VERY DIFFERENT LEVELS OF SENSITIVITY TO SOFTNESS 5. SINGLE INDIVIDUALS OR VERY SMALL GROUPS (1-4) SHOULD NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOFTNESS SCALING 6. SIMPLE PAIRED COMPARISON METHODS LEAD TO MANY GAPS IN A SCALE AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO REPLACE STANDARDS ACCURATELY 7. MAGNITUDE ESTIMATION GATHERS MUCH MORE INFORMATION FROM PANELISTS AND ALLOWS THE DETECTION OF MARKET SEGMENTS. 8. THE AHP PROCESS ALLOWS AN ESTIMATION OF CONSISTENCY, MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO TRACK PANELIST PERFORMANCE AND IMPROVE PANEL EFFICIENCY 9. THE HAND HAS SEVERAL DIFFERENT NERVE TYPES CAPABLE OF SENSING VIBRATIONS, LIGHT PRESSURE, DEEP PRESSURE, HEAT AND COLD

37 RECOMMENDATIONS Explore modern paired comparison panel methods. See references. Explore differences in softness perception by world regions. Benchmark markets to detect competitive softness levels. If you own or consider buying a TSA, tune it for each specific grade and market Once you have your TSA tuned, you can begin to optimize softness and reduce costs. Stop by the Emtec booth to learn more about the TSA and modern scaling methods.

38 REFERENCES 1. Softness Do Customers Really Know What They Want?, Tissue World 2008, Miami, Wes McConnell* 2. Product Development Using Fuzzy Sets, INDA, Tenth Technical Symposium, pp , November 17-19, 1982, Original Panel Method. Wes McConnell 3. Patent 5,582,681 December 10, 1996 Ref. Panel Method* 4. Patent 6,027,610 February 22, 2000 Ref. Panel Method* 5. I Am in Specification but Where Did My Softness Go?, Wes McConnell 6. Mechanico Receptors Hand : 7. Emtec: 8. Frameworxs Analytics wesinpa2002@yahoo.com