City of Stockton. Legislation Details (With Text)

Transcription

1 City of Stockton Legislation Details (With Text) File #: Version: 1 Type: New Business Status: Agenda Ready File created: On agenda: Title: 12/24/2013 In control: City Council/Successor Agency to the Redevelopment Agency/Public Financing Authority Concurrent 1/28/2014 Final action: PROJECT CEASEFIRE UPDATE RECOMMENDATION Sponsors: Indexes: Code sections: Attachments: None. Information only. Attachment A - Stockton Ceasefire One Year Report Date Ver. Action By Action Result PROJECT CEASEFIRE UPDATE RECOMMENDATION None. Information only. Summary Over the last fifteen months, the California Partnership for Safe Communities (CPSC) has developed a tailored and unique strategic framework to implement Project Ceasefire in Stockton in an effort to reduce the number of firearms as well as gun violence. Project Ceasefire is a critical outcome of the Marshall Plan Stakeholder Committee and has demonstrated success in its efforts over the past year to reduce violent crime levels in our community. In September, 2013, the CPSC was awarded a second contract to continue implementation efforts by strengthening Stockton s capacity to: collect and analyze data on gun-related street violence; carry out strategic communications with highest risk individuals; continue its street outreach program; and improve the police-community partnership to reduce violence. The attached report provides an overview of the implementation efforts and corresponding results achieved over the last fifteen months of hard work. DISCUSSION Background Project Ceasefire is an intervention model, patterned after a program instituted in Boston which has now been implemented across the country and established as a best practice for violence intervention through multiple evaluations. The Ceasefire Model is a proven violence reduction 361 City of Stockton Page 1 of 3 Printed on 1/22/2014 powered by Legistar

2 File #: , Version: 1 strategy in several cities, including Boston, Chicago, and Cincinnati. Although results vary by city, each has seen dramatic reductions in firearms violence and homicides ranging from 63% in Boston, to 37% in Chicago, and 35% in Cincinnati. The CPSC, led by Stewart Wakeling, has extensive experience implementing successful partnership-based violence reduction efforts in a variety of cities in California as well as the United States. In fact, the City of Stockton employed Project Ceasefire in this community in 1997 and saw a 42% reduction in gun homicide. Following the initial success of Project Ceasefire in Stockton, management at that time began allocating funding to other priorities. Although there are a myriad of factors impacting crime in Stockton, it is notable that violent crime has increased in the last three to four years when Project Ceasefire has not been in place in the community. The proposal that resulted from the Marshall Plan Stakeholder Committee collaboration was to contract with the CPSC for technical assistance in establishing, implementing, and sustaining a Ceasefire Model within San Joaquin County through a three-year phased approach. On September 25, 2012, City Council adopted findings to approve the initial one-year contract with the CPSC to complete Phase I of this approach. Phase I included a preliminary analysis of the local violence dynamic, an initial strategic plan rooted in that analysis and the development of basic operational capacities within the criminal justice system (enforcement, services, and communication). In addition to these basic operational capacities, key outreach efforts such as gang/street outreach and clergy outreach were set into motion. The core concept of Project Ceasefire is to communicate a powerful anti-violence message to the highest risk individuals through call-in sessions. In these sessions, community and civic leadership deliver the message through professional facilitators that violence will not be tolerated in our community. The Ceasefire strategy also offers credible services and support, requiring the involvement of the full spectrum of the criminal justice system and community service organizations. Prior to the conclusion of Phase I, City Council approved on September 24, 2013, an additional contract with the CPSC to continue its implementation assistance. The City is now better able to respond to unacceptably high levels of violence through implementation of the Project Ceasefire intervention strategy guided by in depth analysis, key outreach efforts, and enhanced operational capacities in the areas of enforcement, services, and communication among stakeholders. Present Situation Project Ceasefire continues to be a core component in the spectrum of prevention and intervention programs growing out of the Marshall Plan process. Through Phases II and III of Project Ceasefire, the City will be able to institutionalize this process within our operations and work in collaboration with partners in the criminal justice system into the future without the use of significant additional resources. This project, representing an immediate response to the violent crime in the City of Stockton, would never have been possible without convening the Marshall Plan Stakeholder Committee. Creative collaboration has already emerged by convening this diverse group and exploring the various components of the criminal justice system through a comprehensive perspective. This outcome holds promise for what is possible for our criminal justice system and our community through the Marshall Plan process. With the conclusion of Phase I, it is important to highlight the changes implemented and document both successes and areas in need of additional improvement. The attached report does just that, and is presented for your information as we kick off Phase II and continue to reduce Stockton s violent 362 City of Stockton Page 2 of 3 Printed on 1/22/2014 powered by Legistar

3 File #: , Version: 1 crime. Phase II is focused on accomplishing the following objectives: strengthening Stockton s capacity to collect and analyze data on gun-related street violence in an effort to better identify those people at highest risk of violence and address the strategic challenges of reducing violence in a context of limited resources; carrying out strategic communications with the highest risk individuals utilizing a variety of forums and tools; continuing the street outreach program and increasing the ability to identify and address potential conflicts and tensions that might otherwise escalate into gun violence; improving capacity to connect low-income individuals at highest risk of violence to viable employment opportunities, training, support, and other resources; and further improving the police-community partnership to reduce violence. FINANCIAL SUMMARY Funding for Project Ceasefire is currently budgeted in the Police Department s operating budget for the Fiscal Year. Future allocations will be included in a combination of Measure A and the Police Department s operating budget. No additional financial impact is anticipated at this time. Attachment A - Project Ceasefire Phase I Report 363 City of Stockton Page 3 of 3 Printed on 1/22/2014 powered by Legistar

4 OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FIELD Stockton Ceasefire: One Year Implementation Update Executive Summary JANUARY 2014 Introduction: In mid 2012, the City of Stockton s Marshall Plan Commission responded to unprecedented increases in violence by supporting the implementation of what is often referred to as Boston Ceasefire, an evidence based strategy that employs the direct and respectful communication of a powerful anti violence message to young people at highest risk of violence by an alliance of community leaders. Over the past year, led by the Stockton Police Department (SPD) and a small circle of committed community leaders, the Stockton Ceasefire partnership has made a significant contribution to reducing violence. Both homicides and non fatal injury shootings were down dramatically in However, these early findings should be regarded with caution. Over the past almost 30 years, the City s violent crime rate has often been double and triple that of the state. This trend will not be easily changed without ongoing investments in Ceasefire. Ceasefire Implementation: Though difficult to accomplish, the primary activities of the Ceasefire partnership are divided into four categories. These activities are central to quality implementation of Ceasefire and form a cycle that when carried out continuously can lead to ongoing reductions of violence over the long term. Step 1: Use facts to inform action. Combine frontline expertise and objective data to build an accurate picture of local violence. The Stockton problem analysis, authored jointly by the California Partnership for Safe Communities and the Police Department, began with a structured and in depth review of every homicide that occurred during 2011 and 2012 (a total of 129 incidents). Step 2: Build and maintain a working partnership unified by a shared sense of purpose with experience and expertise relevant to the challenge as framed by the analysis. Step 3: Systematically communicate a respectful anti violence message to young people affiliated with groups and networks at highest risk of violence. Step 4: Follow through: Prioritize outreach, service and enforcement resources expressed as action commitments for groups (commonly referred to as gangs, crews, sets, etc.) and individuals at the very highest risk of violence. November 2012 through March 2013: Getting off the ground Recognizing the urgent need to reduce violence, the Police Department accelerated implementation by sharing the Ceasefire anti violence message one on one to individuals at especially high risk of violence beginning in late November of These evidence based communication efforts built on a series of enforcement initiatives specifically, the development of the Community Response Teams over the summer and fall of 364

5 OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FIELD, continued 2012, Operation Family Feud in November of 2012, and Operation Gideon in early 2013 that effectively focused on those groups and individuals at highest risk of violence. At roughly the same time, clergy outreach efforts sponsored by People and Congregations Together, effectively disseminated the anti violence message in select neighborhoods with high levels of violence. April 2013 through December 2013: Going to scale and follow through Community level implementation of Ceasefire was reflected in the partnership s April, August and November call ins of high risk individuals associated with the most actively violent groups in the city. These evidence based call ins and complementary one on one custom notifications systematically communicated the Ceasefire anti violence message. Enforcement, outreach and service follow up has been intensively focused on these highest risk groups and individuals. Understanding the reduction in violence: As has been widely reported, homicides are down by 55 percent and non fatal injury shootings are down by 40 percent when comparing 2013 with The question of what these reductions should be attributed is an important policy question. This question should be examined with the following in consideration: Over the past 30 years, all major reductions in violence in Stockton have been associated with the implementation of partnership based violence reduction strategies such as Ceasefire ( , , 2013). The longest sustained reduction in homicide in Stockton over this near 30 year period corresponds with the first round of Ceasefire from Anthony Braga, a prominent criminologist at Rutgers and Harvard University, evaluated Stockton s Ceasefire (known as Operation Peacekeeper) and found it reduced overall homicide by 43 percent. Dr. Braga s evaluation of the Peacekeeper Ceasefire initiative was affirmed by a rigorous second review by distinguished social scientists in The above evidence the past year s dramatic reduction in violence viewed in the context of almost 30 years of trend data and particularly rigorous evaluations of prior efforts strongly suggests the Ceasefire approach effectively reduces violence in Stockton. This is not a question of giving credit to Ceasefire over other efforts. As is well known, Ceasefire depends on the commitment and performance of a wide range of enforcement, community and social service partners to very actively align their efforts in the context of a proven strategy. Recommendations: As Chief of Police Eric Jones has emphasized, violence should remain SPD s priority, and Ceasefire should be its primary tool for addressing violence. Given the above, the crucial challenge for the City becomes how it will ensure the continued growth and sustainability of Ceasefire. At present, the City can take four simple steps all achievable with current resources to support continued intensive implementation of Ceasefire. Ensure the Office of Violence Prevention is designed to support Ceasefire. Institutionalize Ceasefire in city administration. Fully align the Peacekeeper program with Ceasefire. Commit to the use of evaluation and performance measures to guide the City s Ceasefire efforts, resist mission drift and maintain accountability for outcomes. JANUARY 2014 PAGE 2 365

6 Stockton Ceasefire One-Year Implementation Update California Partnership for Safe Communities January 5, Introduction In mid-2012, the City of Stockton s Marshall Plan Commission responded to unprecedented increases in violence by supporting the implementation of what is often referred to as Boston Ceasefire, a partnership-based violence reduction strategy. A distinguishing feature of this evidence-based strategy is the direct and respectful communication of a powerful anti-violence message to young people at highest risk of violence by an alliance of community leaders. Led by the Police Department and a small circle of committed community leaders, with important financial and operational support from the San Joaquin County Probation Department, the Stockton Ceasefire partnership has made a remarkable contribution to reducing violence. 1 In 2013, homicides are down 55 percent and non-fatal injury shootings are down over 44 percent when compared with These early results are encouraging and a significant early step in Stockton s long-term efforts to reduce violence and ensure a safe and peaceful city, friendly to neighborhood life and economic development. Reducing violence is, of course, crucial to the broader challenge of revitalizing Stockton. Over the past 28 years, the City s violent crime rate has been consistently double and often triple that of the state. In the past five years, violence in Stockton has climbed even more, increasing to an annual average of almost 50 homicides and capped by a record 71 homicides in 2012 [see Attachment 2]. During this period, Stockton experienced levels of violence that placed it among the most dangerous cities in the state and country. This report reviews Ceasefire planning and implementation from late October 2012 through the end of 2013, shares the results to date, and makes a series of recommendations regarding the action steps and resource commitments necessary to ensure continued progress reducing serious violence. This report will be followed by a Policy and Practice Brief for distribution to the Stockton Ceasefire partners and related stakeholders. 1 The partners are listed in Attachment 1 to this Update

7 2. Ceasefire Planning and Implementation in Stockton The Stockton Ceasefire partners faced a formidable challenge as they worked toward implementation: quickly respond to a seemingly overwhelming crisis, lay the foundation for ongoing reductions in violence, and do both with very limited resources. With this challenge in mind, the partners worked intensively to set in motion four key activities over the fall and winter of We review of each these activities in detail because they are central to quality implementation of Ceasefire. They also form a cycle that, when carried out continuously, leads to ongoing reductions of violence over the long term. This straightforward implementation cycle is illustrated in Attachment 3. Action Step 1: Undertake systematic and in-depth quantitative and qualitative analyses of local violence to inform and guide implementation and set local policy. Use facts to inform action. The rationale for the problem analysis in an era of limited resources is compelling: to direct those resources where they will be most effective in reducing violence. This includes ensuring early implementation is manageable within current resources, identifying both criminal justice and social service agency partners with the right focus and expertise to help reduce violence, and avoiding expensive investments in policies and practices that while superficially attractive may not be a good match with the resource constraints Stockton must work within, the characteristics of violence in Stockton, or local values and priorities. Combine frontline expertise and objective data to build an accurate picture of local violence. The Stockton problem analysis, authored jointly by the California Partnership for Safe Communities (CPSC) and the Police Department, began with a structured and in-depth review of every homicide that occurred during 2011 and 2012 (a total of 129 incidents), the victims and suspects involved in those incidents, and the groups in which those individuals were involved, whether the groups were gangs, crews, sets or other networks. Each step in the analysis combines the expertise of front-line officers (qualitative information) with trend data and other quantitative information to produce an accurate and detailed account of local violence. The methodology behind this approach to data collection and analysis has been carefully developed by leading criminologists and practitioners over the past 20 years and is considered national best practice. Key findings of this analysis are highlighted in Attachment 4. The findings suggest that the Ceasefire approach as an evidenced-based group violence reduction strategy is a strong fit with the Stockton problem. Very briefly, over 60 percent and up to 80 percent of the violence in Stockton involves groups such as gangs

8 Keep current use analysis in real time. In addition to this initial review of homicides, CPSC and the Police Department began building the capacity to carry out this analysis in real time. Ensuring ongoing reductions in shootings depends on the ability of the Department to maintain an up-to-date understanding of street violence. As a result, the Department has instituted regular bi-monthly reviews of all injury shootings. These reviews employ data collection and analysis protocols similar to that of the problem analysis but with a focus on informing current operations. Action Step 2: Build and maintain a working partnership unified by a shared sense of purpose with experience and expertise relevant to the challenge as framed by the analysis. The Stockton Ceasefire partners which include community-based organizations, residents affected by violence, service providers, formerly incarcerated community leaders, outreach workers, clergy, and criminal justice agencies came together extraordinarily quickly to take on two roles, that of a community alliance and that of a working partnership. Unify to send a powerful message. As an alliance, the Stockton partners, whose perspectives and values are often quite different, share a unity of purpose that has enabled them to jointly communicate a persuasive, powerful antiviolence message. Organize to get work done. At the same time, as a working partnership, the Stockton stakeholders have quickly mobilized the formal and informal resources for example, re-entry services, mentoring and coaching, focused enforcement, messaging, and peace walks needed to respond to Stockton s urgent need to reduce violence. Action Step 3: Systematically communicate a respectful anti-violence message to those young people affiliated with groups and networks at highest risk of violence. Employ call-ins, an evidence-based tool, to deliver the Ceasefire message. The evaluation research on Ceasefire is extensive and exceptionally strong (we summarize it in Attachment 5). The research has established that a key factor in Ceasefire s effectiveness is the direct respectful communication of a powerful anti-violence message. The primary vehicle for communicating this message in Stockton has been meetings referred to as call-ins. Typically, during these call-ins the anti-violence message has been delivered to youth and young adults drawn from the highest risk groups and gangs in the city. The meetings are hosted by community members, young people formerly involved in violence, families that have lost loved ones to violence, service organizations, criminal justice agencies, outreach workers, and faith leaders. Most frequently, these 368 3

9 meetings are convened at Stockton s Teen Center with both speakers and participants sitting together in a large square format. Ensure the Ceasefire message reflects support, consequences, risk, choice and respect. Participants have been engaged in the following way: First, members of the community, speaking from their particular perspective, have assured the young men they are valued, and the community deeply wants them to succeed but emphasize that their current choices are destructive to community life. Criminal justice officials have then shared a powerful message: we are working to break the cycle of arrest and incarceration, but we support the community s position that violence isn t acceptable and our joint enforcement efforts will be focused most intensively on those groups and individuals whose continued violent behavior endangers their own lives and the lives of others. The speakers respectfully acknowledge the power young people have to make choices while equipping them with reliable and detailed information both positive and negative about the consequences those choices bring. No one is treated disrespectfully and preaching at or lecturing the young men has not been allowed The tone is serious and the message bracing but the overarching theme is of a shared concern for the well-being of the community and for the well-being of the young men present as part of that community. Use other tools to deliver the Ceasefire message but ensure they are strategic. Call-ins are an efficient way to spread the Ceasefire anti-violence message broadly to groups at high risk of violence and recall that up to 80 percent of the violence in Stockton is group-related but the Ceasefire partnership in Stockton has also employed one-one-one communication (custom notifications) with individuals that are at especially high risk of being involved in violence or that may have influence on those networks. In addition, clergy leaders, many working under the auspices of People and Congregations Together (PACT), have been conducting night walks in neighborhoods that experience high levels of violence, reaching out more directly to families that have experienced violence, and to young men at very highest risk. Action Step 4 Follow-through: Prioritize outreach, service and enforcement resources expressed as action commitments for groups (gangs, crews, sets, etc.) and individuals at very highest risk of violence. The Stockton partners commitment to follow through has been a powerful indicator to those at highest risk of the full partnership s resolve to end violence. Respond to violence with swift, certain and targeted enforcement efforts. Increasingly, the Stockton Police Department has used the problem analysis and real-time shooting reviews to focus its efforts and those of its enforcement 369 4

10 partners on those groups and individuals that account for the majority of street violence. In an era of limited resources, this joint focus on the drivers of violence is both resource wise and effective. The Police Department s leadership through, for example, the development of the Community Response Teams has been critical to the success of the enforcement effort in other ways as well, including responding swiftly and certainly to group flare-ups that threaten to escalate into ongoing conflicts. Supportive relationships with the very highest risk are essential to ongoing reductions. For young men and women at highest risk of violence to feel confident they have a future and, therefore, to want to make wise choices about their futures they need intensive support. In the Stockton Ceasefire partnership, Peacekeeper, Friends Outside and faith leaders affiliated with PACT have worked especially closely to reach out to this traditionally hard-to-serve population. While jobs and better educational outcomes cannot be guaranteed, progress necessarily entails demonstrable improvement in efforts to connect young men at very highest risk of violence to skills, jobs, and education. Service agencies and neighborhood volunteers have been at every call-in and ready to start the relationships with these high risk young men that will eventually lead to formal services such as drug treatment, education, and employment as well as informal supports such as invitations to community events and offers of transportation and other assistance. The call-ins have ended with each participant matched with a community volunteer and/or service provider, ensuring that the contact and other background information needed to connect the young men to the services and supports is obtained. From a strategic perspective, we note that these relationships contribute significantly to reductions in violence at the community level by providing opportunities for communicating the anti-violence message when tensions among groups and individuals threatens to escalate into shootings. These four action steps were organized into two phases: Phase 1: Getting off the ground (November 2012 through March 2013) Recognizing the urgent need to reduce violence, the Police Department accelerated implementation by employing one-on-one sharing of the Ceasefire anti-violence message to individuals at especially high risk of violence beginning in late November of These evidence-based communication efforts built on a series of enforcement initiatives specifically, the development of the Community Response Teams over the summer and fall of 2012, Operation Family Feud in November of 2012, and Operation Gideon in early 2013 that effectively focused on those groups and individuals at highest risk of violence

11 At roughly the same time, clergy outreach efforts sponsored by People and Congregations Together, effectively disseminated the antiviolence message in select neighborhoods with high levels of violence. Phase 2: Going to scale and following through (April 2013 through December 2013) Community-level implementation of Ceasefire was reflected in April, August and November call-ins of high-risk individuals associated with the most actively violent groups in the city. These evidence-based call-ins and complementary custom notifications systematically communicated the Ceasefire anti-violence message. Enforcement, outreach and service follow-up has been intensively focused on these highest risk groups and individuals. 3. Results and How to Interpret Them The Ceasefire approach is very pragmatic and focused. It seeks two primary goals. First and foremost, it seeks to reduce fatal and non-fatal injury shootings. Second, in the longer-term, it seeks to reduce recidivism. As the effort in Stockton continues to develop, findings on recidivism will be collected, analyzed and disseminated. The first year findings on shootings are highlighted below. Homicides are down by 55 percent when comparing 2013 with Non-fatal injury shootings are down by 44 percent when comparing 2013 with Homicides are down by 40 percent when compared to the five-year average. Homicides are near historical lows. As noted, these early results are encouraging and a significant early step in Stockton s long-term efforts to reduce violence and ensure a safe and peaceful city, friendly. We strongly caution that in other cities such dramatic reductions have been short lived without continued and intensive commitment to ongoing quality implementation. In addition, the question of what these reductions should be attributed is an important policy question and should be informed by the following. Over the past 30 years ( ), the three major reductions in violence in Stockton have all been associated with the implementation of partnershipbased violence reduction strategies such as Ceasefire. Referring to Attachment 1, these occurred in and The third significant reduction is that achieved in The longest sustained reduction in homicide in Stockton over this 30-year period corresponds with the first round of implementation of Ceasefire from Anthony Braga, a prominent criminologist at Rutgers and Harvard 371 6

12 University, evaluated Stockton s Ceasefire (known as Operation Peacekeeper) and found it reduced overall homicide by 43 percent. 2 Dr. Braga s evaluation of the Peacekeeper Ceasefire approach was affirmed by a second review of distinguished social scientists in Specifically, this panel of social scientists, known as the Campbell Collaborative, came to two important conclusions. o Rigorous review of Dr. Braga s research and findings regarding Operation Peacekeeper confirms that it was effective in reducing violence in Stockton. o Looking at all the existing evaluations of the Ceasefire approach, the panel concluded the approach is extraordinarily effective, having achieved significant reductions in violence and recidivism in almost every city in which it was implemented. The above evidence the past year s dramatic reduction in violence viewed in the context of almost 30 years of trend data and particularly rigorous evaluations of prior efforts strongly suggests the Ceasefire approach effectively reduces violence in Stockton. This is not a question of giving credit to Ceasefire over other efforts. As is wellknown, Ceasefire depends on the commitment and performance of a wide range of enforcement, community and social service partners to very actively align their efforts in the context of a well-defined violence reduction strategy. 4. Recommendations As Chief Jones has emphasized, violence should remain a priority for the Department and Ceasefire should be the primary tool for addressing violence. Given the above results and the history of what works in Stockton, the crucial challenge for the City becomes how it will ensure the continued growth and sustainability of Ceasefire. At the operational level, continued success depends on maintaining a straightforward cycle of implementation as illustrated in Attachment 3. At present, the City can take four simple steps all achievable with current resources to support continued implementation. Ensure the Office of Violence Prevention is designed to support Ceasefire. Attachment 6 is a brief memorandum outlining the proposed the design of the proposed Office and describing its proposed vision, mission, data collection and analysis, programs and staffing. We recommend the strong endorsement of the 2 Gottfredson Professor of Evidence-Based Criminology at Rutgers University and a Senior Research Fellow in the Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management at Harvard s Kennedy School of Government. Note also that in 2003 At the Local Level: Perspectives on Prevention, a joint publication of the California Department of Justice and the California Health and Human Services Agency, noted the reduction in youth homicide in Stockton over this same period was over 75 percent

13 Office s design, recognizing that quality implementation of Ceasefire is necessary to maintain measurable reductions in violence. 3 Institutionalize Ceasefire in city administration: Systematically and specifically incorporate Ceasefire into City policy and practice, including recruiting, job descriptions, promotional processes, and departmental mission statements and strategic planning documents. This should extend to city agencies such as the police department, the proposed Office of Violence Prevention, the City Manager s Office and Peacekeeper. Fully align the Peacekeeper outreach program with Ceasefire. The Peacekeeper outreach program should be focused on the very highest risk groups and individuals as defined by the problem analysis. The outreach workers job descriptions and programmatic activities should ensure that their priority activities are violence interruption, mediation and conflict resolution, case management, and custom notifications in the service of Ceasefire. Establish the following data collection and analysis activities to guide the City s Ceasefire efforts, resist mission drift and maintain accountability for outcomes. Maintain a comprehensive and detailed analysis of violence to guide Ceasefire efforts by updating the problem analysis every two years. Make a formal independent evaluation of the Ceasefire partnership a public and private fundraising priority. Ensure that data collection and analysis regarding violence is a priority of the proposed Office of Violence Prevention. 3 See Attachment 6 re proposed design of OVP 373 8

14 STOCKTON CEASEFIRE REPORT: ATTACHMENT 1 The Stockton Ceasefire Partners include: Community, Support, Services Behavioral Health Services El Concilio Friends Outside PACT Lifelines to Healing Peacekeeper Podesto Teen Center WorkNet Stockton Unified School District Law Enforcement California Highway Patrol CDCR Parole District Attorney s Office Federal agencies Police Probation Sheriff s Office US Attorneys Office 374

15 STOCKTON CEASEFIRE REPORT: ATTACHMENT 2 375

16 376 1

17 ANALYZE PROBLEM/ ASSESS RESULTS FOLLOW THROUGH TAILOR APPROACH TO STREET DYNAMIC COMMUNICATE 377 2

18 Stockton Ceasefire 1-Year Report Attachment

19 1. With SPD s help, CPSC reviewed every homicide that took place in Stockton during This review consists of: A review of every each incident (what happened that led to the shooting?) An in depth analysis of every victim and offender s criminal history. A review of the role of gangs, crews, sets, etc. A network analysis of group conflicts and alliances. 3. The purpose of the analysis is to tailor the design of the Ceasefire initiative to local needs, priorities & resources. The product is a strategic framework the analysis does not specify individuals, gangs/groups or location

20 1. Over the past 28 years, Stockton has averaged 40 homicides per year. Its violent crime rate is consistently double and sometimes more than triple the state average. 2. Over the past five years, homicides have reached an average of 47 per year and a high of Anthony Braga, a criminologist at Harvard and Rutgers University, found that during the implementation of Ceasefire ( ) overall homicide was reduced by 43%. This was the longest period of sustained reductions in the past 28 years. During that period, homicides averaged 31 per year

21 Victims Suspects Male 84.5% 96.3% Female 15.5% 3.7% Average age overall Average age of those known to CJ system Asian 17% 4.9% Black 30% 43.9% Hispanic 45% 42.7% White 8% 4.9% 381 4

22 1. About 73% of victims & 83% of suspects are known to the criminal justice system before the incident. 2. Victims & suspects are arrested frequently and often for very serious offenses. Suspects average 8.5 arrests by the time they are 25. Victims average 8.6 arrests by the time they are This does not include arrests as juveniles. 3. Conservative estimate is that approximately 30% are on probation or parole at the time of the incident. 4. Conservative estimate is that approximately 50% have been supervised by probation or parole prior to the incident

23 1. Victims & suspects are arrested frequently and often for very serious offenses. 1. On average, homicide suspects have been arrested every 10 months, arrested for felonies aboutevery 18 months, and arrested for violentoffenses about every30 months. 2. On average, homicide victims have been arrested every 15 months, arrested for felonies aboutevery 29 months, and arrested for violentoffenses about every64 months

24 Average Charges by Offense Victims Suspects Violent offenses Nonviolent firearm Drug Property Disorderly Sex Industry Other

25 61% 19% 20% No Group Member Involvement (N=24) Unknown Group Member Involvement (N=26) Yes Group Member Involvement (N=79) 385 8

26 Problem analysis: motives (6) Circumstance Stockton Homicides, = 129 N Number Group Member Involved 79 61% Ongoing Group Beef 30 23% Instant Dispute (Respect) 17 13% Drug Robbery 4 3% Drug Business 4 3% Ongoing Personal Dispute (retaliation, respect, arguments) % Robbery 6 5% Domestic 1 0.8% Other Business 1 0.8% Motive Unknown 5 4% Percentage 386 9

27 Problem analysis: motives (6b) Circumstance Stockton Homicides, = 129 N Number Group Member Involvement Unknown/Not Confirmed 26 20% Ongoing Personal Dispute (respect, pimping/prostitution) 3 2% Instant Dispute 2 1.5% Drug Business 2 1.5% Drug Robbery 2 1.5% Robbery 7 5% Domestic (child abuse, siblings) 3 2% Unknown 7 5% Percentage

28 Problem analysis: motives (6c) Circumstance Stockton Homicides, N = 129 Number Not Group Member Involved 24 19% Domestic (relationship violence, siblings, child abuse) 13 10% Prostitution and Pimping 2 1.5% Instant Dispute 3 2% Other (Accident, Burglary, Sociopathic Sexual Assault and Murder) 6 5% Percentage

29 389 1

30 Study Boston Operation Ceasefire Indianapolis IVRP Stockton Operation Peacekeeper Lowell PSN Cincinnati CIRV Newark Ceasefire LA Operation Ceasefire Chicago PSN High Point DMIs Nashville DMI Rockford DMI Hawaii HOPE Boston Re entry Init. Main Outcome 63% youth homicide 34% total homicide 42% gun homicide 44% gun assaults 42% GMI homicide, 22% nonfatal shootings No sig. reduction in gunshot wound incidents Sig. short term reduction in violent, gun crime 37% homicide, 30% recidivism rate 3 of 4 neighborhoods had 44% 56% in part I UCR crime; all up to 74% in drug offenses 55% reduction in drug offenses 22% non violent offenses 26% recidivism rate 30% recidivism for violent crime 390 2

31 1. Effective imagine flipping a coin 13 times & getting heads 12 times effective across different cities, groups & economic conditions. 2. Driven by communication: Makes highest risk individuals & groups aware of the personal & community costs involved in violence by sharing in a direct, respectful manner. 1. Ceasefire is hard. Many cities that start fail to fully implement/sustain. Long term correlations between quality of implementation & results (Boston, Cincinnati). 391

32 Percentage decrease in Log(Homicide Rate) associated with a one-unit increase in PSN treatment Control Variables -1 Forums Gun Recoveries Prosecutions Sentence Length Combined Effect In Chicago, the impact of direct communication ( call ins ) on violence was the most powerful part of the strategy. **N.B.: Random Effects Poisson Regression 392 4

33 Attachment 6 City of Stockton Office of Violence Prevention January 5, 2014 I. Purpose of document This document describes the basic features of the City of Stockton s Office of Violence Prevention (OVP), including its vision, mission, goals, guiding principles, initial strategies and core functions. II. III. IV. Vision, Mission, Outcomes, Design Principles a. Vision: OVP will play a central role in making Stockton a measurably safer place for all residents and for those at highest risk of involvement in violence. b. Mission: The mission of OVP is to significantly and measurably reduce violence in Stockton through data driven partnership based violence reduction strategies that are rooted in best practice. c. Outcomes: i. Community level reductions in violence as measured by fatal and non fatal injury shootings ii. Reduce repeat offending as measured by reductions in recidivism, including specially for violent crimes, among program participants iii. Other community and individual outcomes TBD. iv. Design Principles: OVP will promote quality implementation and accountability by ensuring its core strategies are data driven, measurable, and evidence based. Background, Key Challenges a. Violence is a long term serious problem in Stockton. Despite recent decreases, violence is a long term serious problem in Stockton. Economic development, neighborhood revitalization and youth development initiatives depend on continued sustained reductions in violence. b. Institutionalization of Ceasefire is necessary to reduce violence over the long term. Over the past 30 years, reductions in violence are rare and short lived and correlate highly with Ceasefire implementation. Establishing Ceasefire as OVP s primary focus will help to ensure sustained meaningful reductions. c. Resources are limited. OVP will have limited funding and staff. In addition, it will operate in an environment of generally limited resources. San Joaquin County is among the poorest metropolitan areas in the country. d. OVP must demonstrate success. OVP must strengthen its mandate and demonstrate a tangible return on taxpayer investment. This includes demonstrating the effectiveness of its core strategy, and developing the additional funding needed for important activities including evaluation. e. Violence disproportionately affects young men of color in Stockton. A recent analysis of local violence indicates that 94% of individuals directly involved in homicide as either victims or suspects are male, and 93% are people of color. The average age of someone directly involved in homicide is 27.9 years old. Core Strategy and Programs: The initial strategy will be to ensure quality implementation and institutionalization of Ceasefire as a partnership based violence reduction strategy that employs direct, respectful communication with youth and young adults at very highest risk of violence. Core program components will include: 393

34 Draft/Discussion Document 2 a. Ceasefire strategy that focuses on groups and individuals in community settings at highest risk of violence. b. A Re entry component (the Stockton Re entry Initiative or SRI) that focuses on incarcerated individuals likely to be at highest risk of violence upon release. c. Peacekeeper: Street Outreach to groups and individuals at highest risk of violence to: (a) mediate conflicts, (b) reduce risk of violence; and (c) build relationships that facilitate risk reduction and support the service process. d. Mentoring and related informal community based supports: evidence based mentoring focused on youth and young adults at very highest risk of violence as defined by the Problem Analysis described below. e. Formal services: evidence based services (for example, employment development, substance abuse, education) focused on youth and young adults at very highest risk of violence as defined by the Problem Analysis described below. V. OVP Core Functions: Initially, OVP should pursue a highly focused set of core functions to sustain reductions in violence. We recommend the following: a. Ensure quality management of the above strategy and programs. In summary, this would include a coordinated cycle of data analysis, partnership building and action planning, direct communication, and focused follow through. The performance measures described above would play a key role in assessing quality management and implementation. b. Convene and engage stakeholders who can play key operational roles, provide political support, and ensure an educated and engaged community. Data and analysis will be one of the key tools used to identify stakeholders. c. Ensure programs to reduce violence conform to best practice by functioning as a funding clearinghouse for programs in Stockton that aim to reduce violence. d. Centralize and coordinate the City s public and private violence prevention grant funding in order to maximize impact and increase accountability for outcomes VI. Data Collection and Analysis a. OVP will be data driven. The rationale is to: i. Focus resources where they will be the most effective ii. Manage key programs iii. Avoid expensive, ineffective policy solutions and practices and tactics; a iv. Demonstrate effectiveness. b. OVP will employ three methods for achieving the above: i. Problem Analysis a detailed and comprehensive portrait of the problem of violence in Stockton that guides strategy development and lays a foundation for performance management and evaluation. This will be the responsibility of OVP staff and SPD, with support from CPSC. ii. Performance Management the development and collection of data aligned with the goals of the office. The goals will generate specific indicators for impact, which in turn will determine performance measures to guide day to day management of the core strategy. This will also be the responsibility of OVP staff and SPD with support from CPSC. The specific data collection and performance measurement will be closely related to the core program components above. iii. Formal Evaluation in depth analysis of what is working, what is not, and why. This will be administered by CPSC with the assistance of OVP and SPD. An independent formal evaluation is important to the mission of OVP but, at this time, private funding will be relied upon to support evaluation efforts. 394