Africa s slow fertility transition

Transcription

1 Africa s slow fertility transition John Bongaarts Population Council, New York Süssmilch Lecture Max Planck Institute, Rostock 3 Sep 215

2 Billions 4 3 Population projections for sub-saharan Africa 215 projection 2 22/4 projection population Source, United Nations

3 Crude birth and death rates sub-saharan Africa 4 Crude birth rate /4 1 Crude death rate 22/ Source: United Nations

4 Births per woman TFR trends in sub-saharan Africa Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo (Brazzaville) Congo Democratic Republic Cote d'ivoire Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Sierra Leone South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Source: DHS Uganda

5 Determinants of fertility Socioeconomic development Mortality decline Family planning Program Diffusion processes Fertility

6 Hypotheses 1. Africa s development is slow 2. Africa is exceptional 3. Family planning programs are lacking

7 Outline 1. Fertility and development trends Levels Pace 2. African exceptionalism 3. Impact of family planning programs 4. Conclusions

8 Births per woman Total fertility rate Africa Other LDCs

9 Development indicators GDP per capita (at PPP) from the PWT - Education, % with primary + (Wittgenstein) - Life expectancy at birth (UN 213) - Percent urban (UN 214).

10 8 4 GDP per capita(ppp) Other LDCs 1 8 Education Other LDCs $ per capita 2 1 Africa %. with Primary Africa Years Life expectancy Other LDCs Africa % Percent urban Other LDCs Africa

11 Average at the time of transition onset Sub-Saharan Other LDCs Africa TFR decline % 1 1 Year of transition onset GDP/cap(log) Education (% primary+) Life expectancy Percent urban 29 4

12 Conclusions 1) African transitions later in time Consistent with conventional theory 2) But early relative to level of development Consistent with diffusion theories

13 Outline 1. Fertility and development trends Levels Pace 2. African exceptionalism 3. Impact of family planning programs 4. Conclusions

14 .15 Total fertility rate, pace Births per woman/year.1 Other LDCs.5 Africa

15 % year Years GDP per capita Pace 6 5 Other 4 LDCs Africa Life expectancy Pace Africa Other LDCs %/Year % 2 1 Education pace Africa Other LDCs Percent urban Pace Other LDCs Africa

16 Average pace at the time of transition onset Sub-Saharan Other LDCs Africa TFR.9.15 Year GDP/cap(log).8.34 Education (% primary+) Life expectancy Percent urban.29.57

17 Conclusions 3) African transitions are slow because the pace of development is slow Consistent with conventional theory

18 Outline 1. Fertility and development trends Levels Pace 2. African exceptionalism 3. Impact of family planning programs 4. Conclusions

19 Births per woman TFR by GDP/capita, Africa Other LDCs $ per year

20 Births per woman TFR by GDP/capita, 21 Africa Other LDCs $ per year Births per woman TFR by education, 21 Africa Other LDCs 5 1 % primary+ Births per woman TFR by life expectancy, Africa Years Other LDCs Births per woman TFR by percent urban, 21 Africa Other LDCs 5 1 Percent urban

21 TFR 21 Africa effect 1.18** GDP/cap -.36* Education -.19*** Life expectancy -.2 Percent urban. R 2.84 N 71 Year 21

22 Socioeconomic dev. Mortality decline Cost and benefits of children Fertility preferences Demand for contraception Use of contraception Fertility

23 TFR Contraceptive prevalence Desired Family size Africa effect 1.18** -1.9* 1.24* GDP/cap (log) -.36*.83.3 Education -.19***.51*** -2.7*** Life expectancy Percent urban R N Year Latest DHS

24 Conclusions: African fertility is high relative to development Consistent with theories about African exceptionalism (e.g. Caldwell)

25 Caldwell (1992) : (1) African traditional society stressed the importance of ancestry and descent. younger generations assisted the older generations.. for males at least, high fertility ultimately brought substantial economic returns (2) Polygyny led in West and Middle Africa to separate spousal budgets. The father was spared much of the cost of rearing children. (3) There was strength and safety in numbers. Communal land tenure meant that large families could demand a greater share of the land (4) Family planning programs were nonexistent or weak..regarded as foreign or as incompatible with African culture

26 Outline 1. Fertility and development trends Levels Pace 2. African exceptionalism 3. Impact of family planning programs 4. Conclusions

27 Socioeconomic dev. Mortality decline Cost and benefits of children Fertility preferences Demand for contraception Family planning program Contraceptive access /information Cost of contraception Unmet need for contraception Use of contraception Fertility

28 Met and unmet need for contraception, developing world 8 Percent of couples Potential demand for contraception Current use Unmet need

29 7 Planned and unplanned pregnancies Africa 6 Planning status Pregnancy outcome # pregnancies Unintended Intended Abortion Unintended birth Intended birth Source: Guttmacher

30 Successful FP experiment in Matlab, Bangladesh 5 Contraceptive Prevalence (%) 4 Experimental area Control area Source: Cleland et al. 1994

31 Fertility impact of weak vs strong FP programs Burundi Rwanda Uganda Kenya Pakistan Bangladesh Jordan Iran Philippines Indonesia Strong Births per woman Weak

32 6 Rwanda reproductive trends 7 5 TFR 6 % married women Contraceptive use Births per woman

33 Conclusion: 1) High unmet need for contraception and large numbers of unplanned pregnancies 2) Family planning programs can reduce fertility by about 1.5 births per woman

34 Billions Population projection variants sub-saharan Africa Variant High Medium Low Source: United Nations

35 Causes of slow fertility decline in Africa 1) Slow pace of development 2) African pro-natalism 3) Weak or non-existent FP programs

36 Sources Bongaarts John, Africa s unique fertility transition Paper prepared for the US National Academies of Science Workshop on Recent Trends in Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa, June 14-15, 215, Washington DC. J. Bongaarts, J. Cleland, J. Townsend, J. Bertrand, and M. Das Gupta, Family Planning Programs for the 21 st Century: Rationale and Design, New York Population Council (212).

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