According to the provisional results

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1 Demography and Development: Preliminary Interpretations of the 2011 Census K Navaneetham, A Dharmalingam The pace at which India s population is growing is slowing, but not as rapidly as expected; India will become the largest country in the world sooner than earlier forecast. Literacy rates have increased sharply between 2001 and 2011; some of the low performing rates have shown strong improvements, the others have not. The dismal picture in the 2011 Census is that even as the overall sex ratio has improved due to better adult female mortality, that of the child sex ratio has further deteriorated. High mortality among girl children and sex selective abortions have pushed the child sex ratio down in all but three states. K Navaneetham (nava@cds.ac.in) is at the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram and A Dharmalingam (Dharma.arunachalam@monash.edu) is at the Centre for Population and Urban Research, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. According to the provisional results of the 2011 Census, released by the Registrar General of India on 31 March 2011, India s population as on 1 March 2011 was 1,210 million. This is larger than the population size projected by experts and most professional organisations. Population Growth Between the census years 2001 and 2011, the absolute addition to the population was 181 million. The average annual exponential growth rate during was 1.62%, 0.33 percentage points less than the rate observed during (Table 1). If the fall in the growth rate over the last two decades continues, and there is every reason to believe that this will be the case, the rate of growth of population would be much lower in the coming decades. Though the growth rate has declined compared to the previous decade of , there was only a marginal decline in the absolute number of people added to the population total. This is not unexpected as there are still a growing number of women entering the reproductive ages the result of high fertility in the past. This inbuilt tendency for India s population to grow will continue at least until the middle Table 1: Population Growth in India ( ) Census Population Decadal Growth of Average Year Population (%) Annual Growth Rate (%) ,83,96, ,20,93,390 1,36,97, ,13,21,213-7,72, ,89,77,238 2,76,56, ,86,60,580 3,96,83, ,10,88,090 4,24,27, ,92,34,771 7,81,46, ,81,59,652 10,89,24, ,33,29,097 13,51,69, ,64,21,039 16,30,91, ,02,87,37,436 18,23,16, ,21,01,93,422 18,14,55, Source: Registrar General of India (2011). of this century. A comparison of crude population growth rate and crude rate of natural increase computed from the Sample Registration System (SRS) data also indicates a net in-migration rate of around 0.15% during the decade When the final population totals are r eleased, India s population would certainly be larger. There would be an addition of about two million to the final population total if the same patterns as in the previous census are repeated. Although the final t otal is not adjusted, the true total is likely to exceed 1,210 million by several millions as censuses around the world and the developed countries are no exception suffer from under-enumeration. In the past, post-enumeration surveys in India indicated that the levels of underenumeration varied between 1.5% and 2.0% (Nanda 1992; Bhat 1998, 2002; Dyson 1981, 2001). A conservative assumption of 1.0% under-enumeration in the 2011 Census would add at least 12 million more to the final t otal. This may mean that the decline in growth rate during is even smaller than what the provisional population t otals yield. The average annual growth rate of population declined in all major states except in Tamil Nadu (Table 2, p 14). The Tamil Nadu exception may be the result of growth in net in-mig ration into Tamil Nadu during The relatively larger difference between the crude growth rate and the crude rate of natural increase in Tamil Nadu (Figure 1, p 14) during than that observed during indicates that the increase in net in-migration was responsible for stability rather than any decrease in its growth rate. The other notable in-migration major states are Haryana, Maharashtra and Gujarat. In contrast, Kerala continues to be a net exporter of people to elsewhere in India and overseas. Figure 1 also indicates underenumeration in the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Jharkand. Achievements in Literacy The provisional population figure of the 2011 Census shows a marked improvement in the literacy rate. The effective literacy rate (literacy rate in population aged 7+ years) increased from 64.8% to 74% over the decade Although Economic & Political Weekly EPW April 16, 2011 vol xlvi no 16 13

2 Figure 1: Relationship between Crude Growth Rate (CGR) and Crude Rate of Natural Increase (CRNI) among Major States ( ) 2.75 CRNI, (%) CRNI, (%) the improvement was significant for both males and females an increase from 75.3% to 82.1% for males and from 53.4% to 65.46% for females females gained more than males. At high levels of literacy rate (say over 75%), the improvement is expected to be gradual rather than exponential. To make valid comparisons between states at various levels of literacy rate or comparisons over time, conventional measures of l iteracy need to be complemented by measures that make due allowance for variation in the base levels (see for details, Dutta et al 1997). Two such standardised indices known as the achievement and improvement indices were constructed for the states and Table 2: Population and Growth Trends among Major States Kerala Andhra Pradesh West Bengal Orissa Punjab Tamil Nadu Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh MP Jharkhand Haryana Chhatisgarh Assam India Gujarat Karnataka Delhi JK Maharashtra CGR, (%) the results are presented in Table 3 (p 15). These indices show that, although Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir had a lower achievement level in literacy in 2001, ranking at the bottom, they all stood at higher ranks with respect to improvement in literacy during the decade On the other hand, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan which also had a low achievement level in 2001, performed poorly relative to other states with comparable base levels in improving their literacy level during As should be expected, the southern states which already had higher levels of literacy were not ranked high with respect to achievement progress during Interestingly, smaller states did better in States Population (000) Percentage Decadal Growth Average Annual Geometric Growth Rate Andhra Pradesh 76,210 84, Bihar 82,999 1,03, Gujarat 50,671 60, Haryana 21,145 25, Himachal Pradesh 6,078 6, Jammu and Kashmir 10,144 12, Karnataka 52,851 61, Kerala 31,841 33, Madhya Pradesh 60,348 72, Maharashtra 96,879 1,12, Orissa 36,805 41, Punjab 24,359 27, Rajasthan 56,507 68, Sikkim Tamil Nadu 62,406 72, Uttar Pradesh 1,66,198 1,99, West Bengal 80,176 91, India 10,28,737 12,10, Source: Same as Table 1. Bihar terms of improvement even though they had higher levels of literacy in Gender Composition: Sex Ratio China and India have the dubious distinction of having the most unfavourable population sex ratios among the 10 most populous countries in the world, with India being marginally better than China: 940 vs 926 females per 1,000 males. In contrast, in almost all of India s south Asian neighbours (Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) women fare better in the sex ratio. Pakistan too has a marginally better sex ratio. Nevertheless, the first decade of the 21st century may mark the beginning of a longterm positive change in the position of women in India. The sex ratio in 2011 is almost equal to what was observed in In between, India s sex ratio hovered around 930 the lowest recorded since systematic and regular decennial census collections began in the late 19th century. The regional pattern in sex ratios in 2011 is along the long-established contours: relatively less masculine sex ratios in the south and east compared to the north I ndian states. Likewise, the improvement in population sex ratio since 2001 is not uniform across the country. Between 2001 and 2011, sex ratios have worsened in only three major states: Bihar, Gujarat and Jammu and Kashmir (Table 4, p 15). Despite the poor performance in three major states, the sex ratio at the national level improved thanks to noticeable gains in Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Maharashtra (and Chandigarh and Delhi). These states experienced an increase in sex ratios during the first decades of the 21st century compared to a decrease in the 1990s. Gujarat is the only major state where the sex ratio declined both in the 1990s and thereafter, although the decline in the past decade (only 3 points) was much less than that in the 1990s (over 10 points). The increase in sex ratio between the 1991 and 2001 censuses was interpreted with guarded optimism. This was because some of the increase during the 1990s was likely to have been due to substantial i mprovement in census enumeration. In fact, it was suggested that there may not have been any change in the sex ratio d uring the 1980s and 1990s (Dyson 2001). There are grounds to April 16, 2011 vol xlvi no 16 EPW Economic & Political Weekly

3 Table 3: Achievement and Improvement Index in Literacy Level ( ) States Effective Literacy Rate believe that part of the increase in the overall sex ratio during is also due to further improvements in census enumeration. The preparation for the 2011 Census comprised Achievement Index Rank Achievement Index Rank Improvement Index Rank Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Bihar Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh West Bengal India Achievement index for literacy = (1-(max xi)/(max-min)) ^0.5; max = 100, a maximum level it can reach; min = 0 Improvement index = Achievement index 2 - Achievement index 1. Table 4: Sex Ratio of Total Population, Child Population and Population Age 7+ (2001 and 2011) India/States Sex Ratio (Females per 1,000 Males) Total Population Child Population in Populatiion Aged the Age Group and Above India Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala 1,058 1, ,072 1,099 Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu ,000 Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Source: Same as Table 1. special efforts to gender sensitise everyone involved including the general public: gender sensitivity was integrated into the entire process of census taking (Registrar General of India 2011: 14). Specifically, about 260 districts were identified as having an abnormally low sex ratio (below 900), low female literacy and low labour force participation at 2001 Census. These gender critical districts were given special attention in order to i mprove census coverage and data quality. While an improvement in the enumeration is certainly a factor, the most important contributor to the overall increase in sex ratio is improvement in survival rate among women. In countries where social institutions are gender neutral, the female mortality level is expected to be less than that of males. Consequently an average f emale is expected to live longer than an average male. Unsurprisingly, this was not the case in independent India until the 1980s. Only during the 1990s did female life expectancy exceed male life expectancy by one year; the gap increased to two years during the first half of the first d ecade of this century. In the western countries, the gender gap in life expectancy is in the range of three to five years in favour of females. It is very likely that declining mortality among females relative to males in the last 10 to 20 years is the major driver of increase in population sex ratio. Decline in Child Sex Ratio As was the case during the 1990s, the increase in population sex ratio was almost entirely due to the increase in sex ratio among the population aged 7 and over. But the sex ratio for the population aged 0-6 years continued to decline: from 945 females per 1,000 males in 1991, to 927 in 2001 and further down to 914 in 2011 (Table 4). This is despite concerted efforts to improve coverage and age-misreporting in the 2011 Census. In spite of an increase between 2001 and 2011, Punjab and Haryana have the lowest sex ratio (less than 850) among the 0-6 year olds in All the major states with the exception of three in the south (Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karna taka) recorded increasing masculinity in their under seven population sex ratios. The largest decrease was in Maharashtra and Rajasthan (Jammu and Kashmir experienced too large a decline in its sex ratio by 82 points to be plausible). Causes of Decline The worsening of the child sex ratio in the last 10 years point to: (i) a further widening of the gender mortality gap, and (ii) a decrease in the sex ratio at birth through sex selective abortion. It is well-recognised among both social scientists and policymakers that the two major underlying causes for discrimination against female children in India are son preference and the low status of women (Arnold et al 1998, 2002; Arokiasamy 2002; Basu 1989; Bhat and Xavier 2003; Caldwell et al 1982; Clark 2000; Das Gupta 1987; Kishore 1995; Osmani and Sen 2003; Pande and Astone 2007). The increasing mortality risk for newborn female children is borne out by findings from the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS). During the period , the sex ratio of children who died under Economic & Political Weekly EPW April 16, 2011 vol xlvi no 16 15

4 five was 1,011 females per 1,000 males. This increased to 1,045 during (Kishore and Gupta 2009). In the first decade of the 21st century, a girl child is about 40% more likely to die than a male child in her first year of life, and 61% more likely to die between her first and fifth birthdays. It is argued that the gender imbalance in mortality in the first five years of life is large enough to explain almost all the difference in sex ratio at birth (Oster 2009). The mortality gap is, in turn, largely accounted for by differential access to food, parental care and healthcare utilisation (Miller 1981, 1997; Mishra et al 2004; Pande 2003; Pande and Yazbeck 2003; Sen and Sengupta 1983). Some estimates indicate that as much as 50% of excess female mortality in the 1-4 year age group is likely to result from gender disparity in vaccinations and nutritional status (Oster 2009). The findings from NFHS surveys show that while full-immunisation rates have been increasing since the early 1990s for both male and female children, they are still less than 50%. More importantly, there is no evidence of narrowing of the gender gap in full immunisation; rather there may be a slight widening of the gap (Kishore and Gupta 2009). The role of sex selective abortion in the deterioration of the child sex ratio is a hotly debated and intensively researched area in India (Patel 2007). Both historical and current analyses have shown that excessive preference for sons among a wellequipped burgeoning middle class and relatively easy access to modern technologies have the potential to prevent an unwanted girl child at conception rather than at or after birth (Arnold et al 2002). Indeed the richer classes in India do seem to treat their female children better than their poorer counterparts. The NFHS-3 of showed that early childhood g ender differential is lower among the wealthier households than among the poorer ones (Kishore and Gupta 2009). It is estimated that during as many as one female foetus may have been aborted for every 20 female live births. This was an increase from less than one abortion per 30 female births during These rates amount to over half a million sex selective abortions per year during (Kulkarni 2007). Even if it is assumed that these estimates are at the high end of the 16 possibilities, they do indicate the widespread and intensified nature of the issue. That there indeed was a further decline in the sex ratio at birth is also backed up by the findings from the NFHS surveys. The sex ratio at birth of live births (as opposed to births that died in the first five years of life) decreased from 936 females per 1,000 males in to 931 in and then to 910 in The NFHS-3 data further showed that pregnancies receiving an ultrasound test were more likely to lead to a much lower sex ratio than the biologically normal sex ratio. And sex selective abortion behaviour goes hand-in-hand with increased wealth. Women in the top wealth quintile have about 60% chance of receiving an ultrasound pregnancy test compared to less than 10% chance among women in the bottom two wealth quintiles (Kishore and Gupta 2009). Although there is no state-specific estimates for sex selective abortion it can be inferred that most states with abnormally low sex ratios in the 0-6 age group are likely to have higher levels of sex selective abortions than the rest. These states are also known to exhibit a much stronger gender bias against female children in providing food and healthcare. And there is a clear regional pattern in gender bias, sex selective abortion, and child health: north-western states vs southern and eastern states (Agnihotri 2000, 2003; Bhat 2002; Kulkarni 2007; Patel 2007; Patra 2008). While sex selective abortion and female neglect jointly contributed to low sex ratios in some states such as Punjab and Haryana, sex selective abortions may have contri buted proportionately more than female neglect in Gujarat, Delhi and Chandigarh. This speculative inference needs to be confirmed by welldesigned research and appropriate data. Concluding Remarks The provisional population figures of the 2011 Census do suggest that India s population growth is finally slowing down. Although the total population size exceeded most projections, the growth rate has slowed compared to the 1990s. This is largely due to further declines in fertility throughout the 2000s in the populous states in northern India. However, it will be a few more decades before the momentum effect arising from past high fertility runs its course. The more than expected increase in population size may also mean that India may overtake China as the most populous nation a few years earlier than predicted. Regional variation in growth rates is along the expected lines. Despite the narrowing of the north-south gap in growth rates, the most populous states have the inbuilt demographic momentum to run further away from the rest in population size. This means the centre of population gravity is likely to move towards further north in the decades to come with the a ttendant social, economic and political implications. Although the population sex ratio has improved, the unexpected surprise was the deterioration in child sex ratios. Almost all the improvement in the population sex ratio seems to have resulted from an increase in survivorship among females aged seven and over. With the exception of three states in the south, all the m ajor states fared worse in under seven sex ratios during than in the previous decade. As special measures were taken to improve female undercount in the 2011 Census, the increasing masculinity in under seven sex ratios, particularly in the north, is likely to have been due to the widespread use of sex selective abortion and excess female mortality. Studies have consistently shown that the long-term solution for eliminating discrimination against female children lies in bringing about transformative changes in social institutions and family. The continuous gains in female literacy over the last two decades are signs that far-reaching social changes are under way. How soon we succeed in controlling female gender bias depends largely on how fast the other half achieves secondary education. Early 20th century experience from elsewhere shows that secondary education for all is essential for women s empowerment (Szreter and Fisher 2010). In women s empowerment lie the answers to India s population and development problems. References Agnihotri, S (2000): Sex Ratio Patterns in the Indian Population: A Fresh Exploration (New Delhi: Sage). (2003): Survival of the Girl Child Tunnelling Out of the Chakravyuha, Economic & Political Weekly, 38: Arnold, F, M K Choe and T K Roy (1998): Son Pre ference, the Family-Building Process and Child Mortality in India, Population Studies, Vol 52, pp April 16, 2011 vol xlvi no 16 EPW Economic & Political Weekly

5 Arnold, Fred, Sunita Kishor and T K Roy (2002): Sexselective Abortions in India, Population and D evelopment Review, 28(4): Arokiasamy, P (2002): Gender Preference, Contraceptive Use and Fertility in India: Regional and Development Influences, International Journal of Population Geography, 8(1): Basu, Alaka M (1989): Is Discrimination in Food R eally Necessary for Explaining Sex Differential in Childhood Mortality?, Population Studies, Vol 43, pp Bhat, P N M (1998): Demographic Estimates for Post- Independence India: A New Integration, Demography India, 27(1): Bhat, P N Mari (2002): On the Trail of Missing Indian Females I: Search for Clues, II: Illusion and Reality, Economic & Political Weekly, 37: , Bhat, P N M and A J F Zavier (2003): Fertility Decline and Gender Bias in Northern India, Demography, 40(4): Bhat, P N Mari and A J Francis Zavier (2007): Factors Influencing the Use of Prenatal Diagnostic Technique and the Sex Ratio at Birth in India, Economic & Political Weekly, 42: Caldwell, John C, P H Reddy and Pat Caldwell (1982): The Causes of Demographic Change in Rural South India: A Micro Approach, Population and Development Review, Vol 8, pp Clark, Shelley (2000): Son Preference and Sex Composition of Children: Evidence from India, D emography, 37(1): Das, Gupta, Monica (1987): Selective Discrimination against Female Children in Rural Punjab, India, Population and Development Review, Vol 13, No 1, pp Dutta, Bhaskar, M Panda and W Wadhwa (1997): Human Development in India in S Subramanian (ed.), Measurement of Inequality and Poverty (Delhi: Oxford University Press). Dyson, T (1981): Preliminary Demography of 1981 Census, Economic & Political Weekly, 16(33): (2001): The Preliminary Demography of the 2001 Census of India, Population and Development Review, Vo 27, No 2, Kishor, Sunita (1995): Gender Differentials in Child Mortality in India: A Review of Evidence in M Das Gupta, T N Krishnan and Lincoln Chen (ed.), Women s Health in India: Risk and Vulnerability (Mumbai: Oxford University Press). Kishor, Sunita and Kamla Gupta (2009): Gender Equality and Women Empowerment in India, National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3), India, , Mumbai, International Institute for Population Sciences, Calverton, Maryland, USA: ICF Macro. Kulkarni, P M (2007): Estimation of Missing Girls and Birth in Juvenile Ages in India, Paper Commissioned by UNFPA, India. Miller, B D (1981): The Endangered Sex: Neglect of Female Children in Rural North India (Ithaca: Cornell University Press). (1997): Social Class, Gender and Intra-Household Food Allocations to Children in South Asia, Social Science and Medicine, Vol 44, No 11, pp Mishra, Vinod, T K Roy and Robert D Retherford (2004): Sex Differentials in Childhood Feeding, Health Care and Nutritional Status in India, Population and Development Review, 30(2): Nanda, A R (1992): Final Population Totals, Paper 2 of 1992, New Delhi: Registrar General and Census Commissioner. Osmani, Siddiq and A K Sen (2003): The Hidden Penalties of Gender Inequality: Fetal Origins of IllHealth, Economics and Human Biology, Vol 1, pp Oster, Emily (2009): Proximate Sources of Population Sex Imbalance in India, Demography, Vol 42, No 2: Pande, R and N Astone (2007): Explaining Son Preference in Rural India: The Independent Role of Structural versus Individual Factors, Population Research and Policy Review, 26(1): Pande, Rohini P (2003): Selective Gender Differences in Childhood Nutrition and Immunisation in Rural India: The Role of Siblings, Demography, Vol 40, No 3, pp Pande, Rohini P and A S Yazbeck (2003): What s in a Country Average? Wealth, Gender and Regional Inequalities in Immunisation in India, Social Science and Medicine, Vol 57, pp Patel, Tulsi, ed. (2007): Sex Selective Abortion in India (New Delhi: Sage Publications). Patra, Nilanjan (2008): State Wise Pattern of Gender Bias in Child Health in India, MPRA Paper No Registrar General of India (2011): Provisional Population Total: Paper 1 of 2011, India Series 1, Census of India 2011, Office of the Registrar General of India and Census Commissioner, Government of India. Sen, A K and S Sengupta (1983): Malnutrition of Children and the Rural Sex Bias, Economic & Political Weekly, 18 May, pp Szreter, S and K Fisher (2010): Sex Before the Sexual Revolution: Intimate Life in England , Cambridge University Press. Hazare and His Children Sukumar Muralidharan Anna Hazare s hunger fast last week for probity in politics captured the news agenda and unleashed a nationwide frenzy. Declarations of victory may be premature since the real work of drafting a law on the Lokpal is only just beginning. Corruption is not an abstract evil that can be combated by the virtuous few. It is about imbalances of power and the subversion of democratic goals by elite manipulation. Dealing with corruption is about deepening participatory democracy, rather than disdaining politics as the fount of all iniquity. Sukumar Muralidharan (sukumar.md@gmail. com) is a freelance journalist based in New Delhi. Kisan Baburao Hazare began his fast unto death on 5 April with the very specific intent of getting the Government of India to pass a law. India is a culture that respects the ascetic: one who renounces material comforts and in the extreme instance, refuses all nourishment. Anna Hazare, as he is respectfully called, was clear about the evil he was combating. Decades had been spent in desultory debate about the need for an ombudsman that would exercise oversight and ensure the financial probity of the institutions of governance. Yet the goal remained as distant as ever. Meanwhile, the ethical deficit in governance had multiplied and acquired a dimension that threatened the very fabric of democracy. This situation of deepening iniquity called for little less than an extraordinary remedy. A good and moral man had to vow self-abnegation rather than acquiesce in persistent evil. Dormant sensitivities of nobility in the human race would be stirred to the surface by one man s personal example and long-needed correctives applied. Beyond the moral dimension is the reality of Indian politics, where the institution of a Lokpal (which could be rendered as servant of the people ) has been discussed for over four decades. Public reassurance in the face of rampant corruption has been an objective of various governments. The Administrative Reforms Commission (ARC) chaired by the civil servant turned politician Morarji Desai had recommended the institution of such a body in a report submitted in The body has, since wrapping up its tasks in the mid-1970s, been rebranded the first ARC since its efforts were finally deemed inadequate and required the institution of a second body with a similar mandate in In the fourth of its reports submitted in 2007, the ARC II had addressed the issue of ethics in governance, again underlining the need for an ombudsman that would address public worries and grievances over the performance of the institutions of governance. That the proposal has failed to acquire any material form, despite official homage and public concern, is partly about the reluctance of successive governments to accept the fetters that a Lokpal would impose upon ministerial autonomy a Economic & Political Weekly EPW April 16, 2011 vol xlvi no 16 17