Addressing Risks and Benefits In IBD Gil Y. Melmed, MD, MS Assistant Professor of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA
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The Risk is Commensurate with the Reward (Usually)
Disease Activity severe moderate mild
Disease Activity Degree of Risk severe high risk moderate mild low risk
Severity of Disease Degree of Risk severe Cyclosporin, Clinical Trials, Surgery high risk Biologic Agents (Remicade, Humira, Tysabri) moderate mild Oral steroids (Prednisone, Entocort) Immunomodulators (6MP, Imuran, methotrexate) Antibiotics Aminosalicylates Non-systemic steroids low risk
Balancing Treatment Benefit and Risk Improved quality of life Known side effects Avoid Surgery Reactions Growth and Development Increased cancer risk? Reduce cancer risk? Benefits Risks The Unknown
There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less than the long-range risks and costs of comfortable inaction. John F. Kennedy
Balancing Benefits and Risks of Treatment vs Benefits and Risks of No Treatment Benefits Risks
Balancing Benefits and Risks of Treatment vs Benefits and Risks of No Treatment Treatment No treatment
So what are the risks of untreated disease? i.e. what is the natural history of IBD?
Long-term Evolution of Disease Behavior in CD 100 90 Cumulative Prob bability (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Inflammatory Penetrating Stricturing 10 0 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 Patients at risk: N= 2002 552 229 95 37 Cosnes J, et al. Inflamm Bowel Dis. 2002;8:244-250. Months
Cumulative Probability of Surgical Intervention in Crohn s Disease 100 Probabi ility (%) 80 60 40 20 Need for Repeat Surgery Possible permanent stoma Malnutrition, Vitamin def Short bowel syndrome Operative risks Mean ± 2 SD Number of events 0 0 D 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 Years 122 26 15 7 7 4 8 1 8 2 2 2 3 2 1 Munkholm P et al. Gastroenterology. 1993;105:1716 1723.
Natural History of Ulcerative Colitis Acute severe colitis: untreated mortality 24% Up to 30% undergo colectomy at some point Increased risk of colon cancer (probably related to degree/duration of longstanding inflammation) Lanholz et al. Gastroenterology 1992 103(5): 1444-51 Ekbom et al. NEJM 1990; 323 (18):1228-33 Rubin DT et al. Curr Treat Options Gastro 2006
What are the risks of Conventional Therapy?
Steroids: Glass Half Empty or Half Full? Event Any side-effect leading to stopping prednisone Estimated Frequency 55% Ankle swelling 11% Facial swelling 35% Easy bruising 7% Acne 50% Memory problems 7% Psychosis - confusion/agitation 1% Infections 13% Cataracts 9% Increased intraocular pressure 22% High blood pressure 13% Osteoporosis 33% Diabetes Chance increases 10x Present IBD 2001, Rutgeerts APT 2001, Rutgeerts NEJM 1994
What are the main side-effects of 6MP/Azathioprine? Event Estimate Frequency (annual) Stop therapy due to adverse event 11% Allergic reactions 2% Nausea 2% Hepatitis/abnormal LFTs 2% Pancreatitis 3% Serious infections 5% non-hodgkin s lymphoma 0.04% (4/10,000) Siegel CA, et al. APT 2005 (weighted average); Siegel CA, et al. CGH 2009
Benefits of Biologics Decreased hospitalizations Decreased surgeries Improvement in HRQOL Improvement in work/productivity Sandborn et al. Gastroenterology. 2009 Oct;137(4):1250-60, Casellas et al. Inflamm Bowel Dis. 2007 Nov;13(11):1395-400; Feagan et al. Gastroenterology. 2008 Nov;135(5):1493-9
So What are the risks associated with (biologic) therapy?
Side-effects of anti-tnf agents Hypersensitivity reactions infusion or injection site reactions serum sickness/ delayed hypersensitivity Immunogenicity Headache Rash Infections mild and serious Demyelinating disorders Psoriasis Autoantibodies Pancytopenia Heart failure Hepatotoxicity Malignancy
Adverse Reactions Associated with anti-tnf Treatment Event Estimated Frequency (annual) Stop therapy due to adverse event 10% Infusion or injection site reactions 3%-20% Drug related lupus-like reaction 1% (1/100) Serious infections 3% (3/100) Tuberculosis 0.05% (5/10,000) Non-Hodgkin s lymphoma (combo) 0.06% (6/10,000) Multiple sclerosis, heart failure, serious liver injury Case reports only Siegel CA. The risks of biologic therapy for inflammatory bowel disease. In Bernstein, ed. The inflammatory bowel disease yearbook, volume 6. In press; Infliximab package insert; Vermeire Gastro 2003; Cush, Ann Rheum Dis 2005; Lenercept study group, Neurology 1999; ATTACH trial 2003
Hepatosplenic T-cell lymphoma 12 cases in IBD with 6MP/AZA alone 19 cases in IBD patients taking infliximab or adalimumab with 6MP/AZA Kotlyar 2011 Age range 12-58 years old Average age = 26 years old Almost all are male (18/19) Infusions ranged from 1-24 9 patients had 3 infusions Four received adalimumab (after infliximab) 1 received natalizumab (after 2 anti-tnfs) Appears to be universally fatal
How Much Risk are Crohn s Patients Willing to Accept? Web-based survey of 580 patients with Crohn s disease Conjoint trade-off analysis Evaluated patients willingness to accept the risk of treatment related side-effects in exchange for improvement in daily symptoms Johnson et al. Gastroenterology 2007.
Patients are Willing to Take High Risks Risk (Annual %) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 PML N = 580 Serious infection Lymphoma Maximal Acceptable 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0 Moderate to Mild Moderate to Remission Severe to Moderate Severe to Mild Severe to Remission Real Risk of PML or lymphoma < 1 per 1000 Johnson et al. Gastroenterology 2007.
Risk of Developing NH Lymphoma 20 year old male receiving anti-tnf + Immunomodulator Therapy for 1 year Risk without IM combination monotherapy medication therapy
Summary: Risks & Benefits IBD itself carries significant risks if untreated The risks of medical therapy are loosely correlated with respective benefits Biologics can reduce hospitalizations, surgeries, and improve health-related quality of life Risks and Benefits should to be communicated effectively Relative to risk of untreated disease Using understandable means