WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004 presented by Thomas Pietschmann UNODC, Research and Analysis Section 1
OVERVIEW: ALL DRUGS CONSUMPTION 2
Estimates of annual prevalence of drug use at the global level in the late 1990s and in 2001-2003 200 4.7% 5% million people 180 160 120 80 40 0 All drugs 185 3.7% 144.1146.2 0.7% 29.6 24.2 4.5 Cannabis Amphetamines Ecstasy 4% 3% 2% 1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 8.3 14 13.3 13.5 15.2 9.2 9.2 0% Cocaine Opiates Heroin Drug us ers in the late 1990s (WDR 2000) Drug us ers 2001-2003 (WDR 2004) annual prevalence in % of population age 15-64 3
Extent of illicit drug and tobacco use, 2001-2003 (or latest year available) million people 1500 1000 500 0 185 (4.2%*) 58 illicit drugs * Population age 15 and above 1270 (29%*) tobacco tobacco other illicit drugs opiates, cocaine, amphetamines Substance abuse related deaths and Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) lost million DAL Ys los t 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 11.2 204,000 illicit drugs (opiates, cocaine, amphetamines ) 59.1 4,907,000 tobac c o Dis ability adjus ted life-years los t (left s cale) S ubs tanc e abus e related deaths (right s c ale) 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 substance abuse related deaths 4
Changes in drug use as perceived by national experts, 1992-2002 Cannabis consumption trend: ATS consumption trend: Drug Abus e T rend Index 4 3 2 1 0 (Drug Abuse Trend Index) 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Drug Abuse Trend Index 4 3 2 1 0 (Drug Abuse Trend Index) 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 Cocaine use trend: Number of countries reporting increases less number of countries reporting declining levels of cocaine use 50 Heroin abuse trend: Number of countries reporting increases less number of countries reporting declining levels of abuse (net-) number of countries 40 30 20 10 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (net-) number of countries 40 30 20 10 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 5
50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) 46 Drug abuse trends in 2001 and 2002: Num ber of countries reporting increases less num ber of countries reporting declines 38 36 28 30 25 22 21 21 17 17 16 15 14 14 18 12 8 6 Net results 2002 Net results 2001 19 4 5 5 3 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 0 4 0 (1) 6 Cocaine Ecstasy - typ Benzodiazepines Cannabis resin All opiates Crack cocaine Heroin Amphetamine Methamphetamine Khat Opium Morphine Barbiturates GHB LSD Other hallucinogens Methaqualone Cannabis herb
Main problem drugs (as reflected in treatment demand), 1998-2002 (or latest year available) 7
EUROPE Main problem drugs as reflected in treatment demand 1995-1998 (WDR 2000) 1998-2002 (WDR 2004) Opiates 72% Other 7% Cannabis 10% Cocaine 3% ATS 8% Opiates 61% Other 10% Cannabis 15% Cocaine 4% ATS 10% Unweighted average of treatment demand of 30 European countries Unweighted average of treatment demand of 33 Asian countries Sources: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data; Council of Europe (Pompidou Group). 8
NORTH AMERICA MAIN MARKET % of all admissions (excl. alcohol) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 42.4% 28.9% 14.7% 3.5% USA - treatment admissions (excl. alcohol) by prim ary substance of abuse, 1992-2002 30.8% 26.4% 22.5% 11.7% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Cocaine Opiates Marijuana ATS Source: SAMHSA, Treatment Episode Dataset (TEDS), National Admissions to Substance Abuse Treatment Services, May 2004. 9
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OVERVIEW: ALL DRUGS TRAFFICKING 12
Global seizures in weight equivalents, 2000-2002 13
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Patterns of main consumer markets (as reflected in seizure data) Importance of EU-25 for global drug seizures (2002) 68% 66% 21% 18% 13% 7.3% 3% 14 Cannabis resin Ecstasy Heroin Amphetamines Cocaine Cannabis herb Population 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Importance of NAFTA (USA, Mexico, Canada) for global drug seizures (2002) 58% 32% 12% 7% 6% 6.8% 0.1% Cannabis herb Cocaine Ecstasy Am phetamines Heroin Cannabis resin Population proportion proportion
10-year trend: 1992-2002 (global level) Trend average annual change in seizures, 1992-2002 Ecstasy* Depressants 20.4% Amphetamines 19.0% Morphine 10.1% Coca leaf 9.3% Cannabis herb 7.4% Heroin 7.0% Cannabis plant 6.9% Opium 6.2% Cannabis resin 4.9% Cocaine 2.5% Methaqualone 2.2% LSD* -19.6% 27.1% * seizues in units -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data/ DELTA. 15
OPIUM / HEROIN 16
281,600 237,800 222,000-40% -29% 142,100 180,200 168,600-6% 17
250,000 Development of opium poppy cultivation in South-East Asia, 1990-2003 200,000 210,400-65% hectares 150,000 100,000 158,300 128,600 123,100 96,300-53% 74,200-23% 50,000-1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Myanmar Lao PDR Thailand Vietnam Trend 18
76% of global Global production in 2003: 4765 metric tons of opium (equivalent to 477 mt of heroin) 17% of global 3% of global 19
2000 Evolution of Afghan opium poppy cultivation since 2000 82,000 ha 2002 74,000 ha 2001 8,000 ha 2003 80,000 ha (+ 8%) 20
6000 Global illicit opium production, 1980-2003 5760 4690 4490 4765-17% 5000 5620 +6% 4000 3000 2000 3760 1600 1000 0 1040 1460 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 21 metric tons
Opium production in 1907/1908* and 2003 (excl. poppy straw) Total: 30,000 tons* (rounded) opium produc tion in metric tons 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 (rounded) 4770 (rounded) 510** 1907/08 2003 Illicit opium production Licit opium production - 80% Total: 5280 tons * Licit opium production in 1907/08: China: 22,200 tons, India 5,100 tons, Indochina 1200 tons, Persia 600 tons, Turkey 560 tons; ** Official forecast of licit production for 2003 by INCB; illicit production: UNODC/ICMP survey reports. Sources: International Opium Commission, Shanghai 1909, INCB, 2003 Narcotic Drugs, New York 2004, UNODC/ICMP narcotic crops survey reports 2003/2004. 22
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Heroin: EU-15: 1.21 million or 0.48% EU-25: 1.41 million or 0.46% 24
Heroin: EU-15: 1.21 million or 0.48% EU-25: 1.41 million or 0.46% EUROPE: 2.75 mio or 0.51% Opiates: EUROPE: 4.0 mio or 0.75% 25
Heroin abuse trend: No. of countries reporting increases less No. of countries 30 reporting declining / stable levels of heroin abuse 20 10 increasing less declining trends 0 (10) 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 increasing less stable or declining trends 26
stabilization/decline of heroin abuse in Western Europe 4 Heroin consumption trend in Western Europe based on national experts perceptions 10000 Acute drug related death in the EU-15, 1985-2002 (mostly related to abuse of heroin) drug abuse trend index 3 2 1 Number 8000 6000 4000 2000-18.5% * preliminary results 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001* 2002* Source: UNODC, ARQ. Sources: EMCDDA, Data Library and UNODC, ARQ. 27
heroin shortage in Australia and its consequences 1.0 % Aus tralia hero in abus e: annual prevalence 50% Australia Proportion of adult males arrested in Parramatta (Sydney) and in other selected sites* across Australia testing positive for opiates 46% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1993 1995 1998 2001 percent testing positive 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q3 1999 Q4 Q1 2000 Q2 Q3 2000 30% Q4 10% Q1 2001 heroin drought Q2 11% Q3 2001 Q4 Q1 2002 Q2 Parramatta (Sydney) 4-sites average* Q3 2002 * unw eighted average of quarterly results from 4 sites: Parramatta (New South Wales), Bankstow n (NSW), Perth (Western Australia) and Southport (Queensland) 18% 16% Q4 Source: AIHW, Statistics on Drug Use in Australia 2002. Source: Drug Use Monitoring in Australia (DUMA) Crime trends in New South-Wales, Australia, July 1999-Dec. 2002 Australia: Rate of opiate overdose deaths among Australians aged 15-44 years, per million inhabitants 8000 heroin shortage 1600 Burglarry cases 6000 4000 2000 1200 800 400 Robbery cases 0 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 0 Burglary cases Robbery cases Source: Source: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, NSW Recorded Crime Statistics 28
COCA/COCAINE 29
2002: 173,100 ha 2003: 153,800 ha Change: - 11% 56% of total cultivation -16% 29% of total cultivation 5% 15% of total cultivation 30
220,600 221,300 210,900 190,800 173,100 153,800-30% -11% 31
Coca bush cultivation in Colombia 180,000 160,000 140,000 160,100 163,000 144,800-47% 120,000 hecatre 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 44,700 50,900 67,200 79,400 101,800 102,000 86,000-16% 20,000-1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Coca cultivation Spraying and manual (voluntary) eradication 32
Colombia: Regional trends 1999-2003 2002 2000 2001 2003 1999 Norte de Santander - Bolivar: Decreasing 1999 21,000 ha 2003 9,000 ha (- 57 %) Guaviare - Meta: Decreasing 1999 40,000 ha 2003 29,000 ha (- 27%) Nariño: Increasing 1999 4,000 ha 2003 17,600 ha (+345%) Putumayo Caqueta: Decreasing 1999 82,000 ha 2003 14,800 ha (-82%) 33
1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Potential illicit cocaine production 1980-2003 950 Lowest level of cocaine production since 1989 Cocaine production level in 2003-31% 800-18% 655 24% 67% 9% 34 m etric tons 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
13% 48% 31% 35
Cocaine: EU-15: 2.9 million or 1.15% EU-25: 3.0 million or 0.98% 36
Cocaine: 0.2% (2000) EU-15: 2.9 million or 1.15% EU-25: 3.0 million or 1.0% EUROPE: 3.3 mio or 0.6% 37
50 Cocaine use trend: No. of countries reporting increases less No. of countries reporting declining levels of cocaine use -63% (net-) number of countries 40 30 20 10 4.8% -23% 0 of 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 of 38
Germany Annual prevalence of cocaine use among 18-59 year olds and 1.1% number of newly identified cocaine users 6000 annual prevalence 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% Annual prevalence New users 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 number of newly registered users 0.0% 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990* 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 0 Annual prevalence 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% Ne w use rs 567 684 832 1760 2438 2308 2467 2600 3234 4307 4251 3930 5,144 5691 5662 5327 4872.0 4933 4346 * Tentative estimate for Germany as a w hole (West-Germany, 12-39 years old: 0.4% in 1990). 39
AMPHETAMINE-TYPE STIMULANTS (ATS) METHAMPHETAMINE AMPHETAMINE ECSTASY 40
Trends in production / trafficking in ATS Number of dismantled laboratories Detection of clandestine laboratories at the global level, 1990-2002 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 18% ATS Other 83% of dismantled laboratories 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 kilogram equivalents Seizures of amphetamine-type stimulants 1980-2002 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 MDMA ('Ecstasy)', MDA, MDME and other hallucinogens excl. LSD Methamphetamine, amphetamine, methcathinone and other synthetic stimulants 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 41
Origin of methamphetamine in 2002 in South-East Asia: Myanmar China Philippines in North America: USA Mexico Main sources of ATS Origin of ecstasy in 2002 42
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Amphetamines EU-15: 1.7 million or 0.65% EU-25: 2.0 million or 0.66% 44
Amphetamines EU-15: 1.7 million or 0.65% EU-25: 2.0 million or 0.66% EUROPE: 2.4 mio or 0.4% 45
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Ecstasy: EU-15: 2.3 million or 0.91% EU-25: 2.7 million or 0.87% 47
Ecstasy: EU-15: 2.3 million or 0.91% EU-25: 2.7 million or 0.87% EUROPE: 3 mio or 0.6% 48
increase stable decline Amphetamines consumption trends in 2001 and 2002 11% 21% 9% 15% 34% 32% 50% 53% 39% 45% 37% 53% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% in % of countries reporting on specific ATS 2001 Amphetamine 2002 Amphetamine 2001 Methamphetamine 2002 Methamphetamine 49
signs of stabilization/decline of amphetamines use in Western Europe 50
Global ecstasy consumption trends, 2001 (n = 56) large large decline increase 5% 29% some decline 5% stable 25% some increase 36% Global ecstasy consumption trends, 2002 large decline 4% (n = 53) large increase 2% some decline 13% stable 34% some increase 47% 51
CANNABIS 52
Tentative estimates of cannabis herb production and trends Cannabis production: > 140 countries 32,000 53
Tentative estimate of cannabis resin production and main source countries 7,400 metric tons 54
23% 2001/02 66% 2001/02 55
68% in 2002 56
Cannabis: EU-15: 19.1 million or 7.5% EU-25: 21.1 million or 6.9% 57
Cannabis: EU-15: 19.1 million or 7.5% EU-25: 21.1 million or 6.9% EUROPE: 28.8 mio or 5.3% 58
Drug Abus e T rend Index 4 3 2 1 0 Cannabis consumption trend: Based on national experts perceptions 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 59
NORTH AMERICA: Trends of incidence and prevalence of drug use in the USA, 1965-2003 1.8% 60% Incidence among the general population 1.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Incidence of cannabis use among the general population age 12 and above Annual prevalence of cannabis use among 12th graders Annual prevalence of all drug use among 12th graders Trend - incidence Sources: NIDA, Monitoring the Future and SAMHSA, 2002 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, Sept. 2003. 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Annual prevalence among 12th graders 60
Summary of data on extent and trends of the drug problem less than 5% of the youth & adult population use drugs (about ½% use heroin or cocaine, the two main problem drugs); close to 30% smoke tobacco; long-term decline in opiate production/consumption (80% less than at the beginning of 20 th century); opium production in South-East Asia fell by more than 50% between 1990 and 2003. Consumption stable in Western Europe and North America; stabilization (or reduced increases) reported from C.I.S. countries in 2002; reductions reported from several South-East Asian countries and Australia. Main problem: opium production in Afghanistan; further increases expected for 2004; global cocaine production fell by 30% between 1999 and 2003, and by 18% between 2002 and 2003; mainly due to strengthened control efforts in Colombia; US student surveys show decline in cocaine use of 23% between 1999 and 2003 and more than 60% between 1985 and 2003; however, increases in South America and Europe; but peak in some West European countries may have been reached; global cannabis production appears to have increased over the last decade and is now back to the levels of the late 1980s; UNODC s Drug Abuse Trend Index showed an increase over the last decade and an acceleration of the upward trend over the 2000-2002 period. Trend data suggest ongoing increases in Europe, South America, Africa and in a number of countries in Asia. The market seems to have stabilized, in contrast, in North America, Oceania and some countries of South-East Asia; global ATS production and consumption increased over the last decade. (Laboratory detections, seizures and UNODC s Drug Abuse Trend Index point in this direction). Following massive increases of seizures in the 1990s, ATS seizures declined, however, over the 2000-2002 period. Increases in the use of ATS continued being reported from a number of countries in South-East Asia, but markets of Western Europe and North America remained largely stable in 2002. Ecstasy continued rising in several developing countries but stabilized in several West European countries and declined in the USA and Canada in 2002/2003. 61
POLICY Governments are committed to the multilateral drug control system and its objectives the UNGASS objectives Conceptual advances offer prospects of better results balanced approach shared responsibility society-wide approach sustainable development context integrated approach (the drugs and crime nexus, the new crime conventions) dynamic approach (better understanding drug markets and drug epidemics) 62
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004 63