STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS ON SUPPLY OF AND TRAFFICKING IN NARCOTIC DRUGS AND PSYCHOTROPIC SUBSTANCES 1996

STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS ON SUPPLY OF AND TRAFFICKING IN NARCOTIC DRUGS AND PSYCHOTROPIC SUBSTANCES 1996

The United Nations International Drug Control Programme wishes to express its appreciation for responses received in the annual reports questionnaires (ARQ), which provided the main source of information for this paper. In order to prepare such documentation, it needs to be stressed, that the quality as well as quantity of information presented, the improvement of clarity and the elaboration of analysis depends on detailed reporting by Governments. Feedback from readers of this document would be welcomed. Please send your comments to: Supply Reduction and Law Enforcement Section United Nations International Drug Control Programme P.O. Box 500 A-1400 Vienna Austria This document has not been formally edited

- 1 - Chapter CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION... 3 RESPONSES TO ANNUAL REPORTS QUESTIONNAIRES (ARQ) AND GROUPING OF COUNTRIES BY SUBREGIONS... 4 INDICATORS ON DRUG TRAFFICKING AND SUPPLY... 5 I. ILLICIT CULTIVATION AND PRODUCTION... 6 Cultivation of opium poppy and production of opium gum... 6 Cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf... 11 Maps: Cultivation areas:...14-16 Opium poppy cultivation in South-West and Central Asia Opium poppy cultivation in South-East Asia Coca and opium poppy cultivation in South America and Mexico II. TRAFFICKING Distribution of opium gum and manufacture of heroin... 17 Manufacture of cocaine... 17 Emerging trends in international trafficking: the growing role of Africa... 17 Maps: Trafficking routes:... 19 Heroin trafficking routes Cocaine trafficking routes Seizures... 20 Herbal cannabis... 22 Cannabis resin... 23 Opium (raw and prepared)... 24 Heroin and Morphine... 25 Cocaine... 26 Psychotropic substances: Stimulants... 27 Methaqualone... 28 LSD... 29 Maps: Key areas of drug seizures... 30-33 Key areas of seizures of herbal cannabis Key areas of seizures of cannabis resin Key areas of seizures of heroin and morphine Key areas of seizures of cocaine

- 2 - Chapter CONTENTS (continued) Page III. PRICES AND VALUE... 34 Farmgate level: Opium... 34 Coca... 39 Retail and wholesale prices for heroin and cocaine... 44 IV. INTERCEPTION RATES... 47 Annex: Details on statistical data of: Prices and levels of purity... 51 Illicit manufacture... 54 Diversion from licit channels... 56 Seizures... 58

- 3 - INTRODUCTION The present document is based on data obtained from annual reports questionnaires (ARQ) received by UNDCP up to 31 January 1998. Where information was lacking, additional sources were used. The statistics and analysis presented cover the period 1986 to 1996, with a focus on 1996, and include estimates for 1997 where available. For the calendar year 1996, 100 countries (listed on page 4) have submitted the ARQ. The following additional sources of information were used in cases where reporting by ARQ was incomplete or lacking: (a) International Criminal Police Organization (ICPO/Interpol) (In the Annex: data is followed by ICPO); (b) Reports provided separately by Governments or other official sources (In the Annex: data is followed by Govt.); (c) International Narcotics Control Board (In the Annex: data is followed by INCB); (d) World Customs Organization (In the Annex: data is followed by WCO); (e) UNDCP field offices reports. In order to provide an overview and meaningful analysis on drug trends, some presentations in this document have been grouped by geographic regions and subregions. Details on the grouping of countries are presented on page 4. The following abbreviations are used in this document: gr = gramme kg = kilogramme mt = metric tonne ha = hectare lt = litre u. = unit In view of the problems of vague or incomplete reporting, the figures presented in this document cannot always be taken as comprehensive statistics but rather as indicators of recent developments. Additionally, all figures provided, in particular those of more recent years, are subject to updating. Finally, boundaries shown in maps do not imply any official acceptance or endorsement by the UN. The statistics and analysis presented in this document have been structured according to the following subject areas: (i) Illicit cultivation and production; (ii) trafficking, including summarized information on seizures; (iii) prices and value; and (iv) interception rates. Definitions of these terminologies are provided on page 5. In the Annex, details on statistical data (as maintained in the UNDCP data base) regarding prices and levels of purity, illicit manufacture, diversion from licit channels and seizures have been attached.

- 4 - RESPONSES TO ARQ AND GROUPING OF COUNTRIES BY SUBREGIONS A total of 100 countries (listed below, as received up to 31 January 1998) have submitted the ARQ, Part III, for 1996, which is in line with the number of responses received on an average basis in recent years and 10 reports more compared to 1995. The countries listed below have been grouped according to the regional and subregional breakdown used in this document. In the statistics and graphical presentations provided in the document, each subregion includes additional countries which have not submitted the ARQ in 1996 and are therefore not listed here. Africa America Asia Europe Oceania Côte d Ivoire North America East/South-East Asia Eastern Europe Australia Egypt Canada Brunei Darussalam Belarus Cook Isl. Ghana Mexico China Bulgaria Fiji Kenya USA Hongkong Croatia Malawi Central America Indonesia Czech Republic Mauritius Costa Rica Japan Hungary Morocco Guatemala Korea, Republic of Latvia Namibia Nicaragua Philippines Lithuania Sierra Leone Panama Singapore Moldova Rep. South Africa South America Central Asia* Poland Togo Brazil Armenia Romania Chile Kyrgyzstan Russian Federation Colombia Tajikistan Slovenia Ecuador Uzbekistan Ukraine Guyana South Asia Western Europe Paraguay Bangladesh Austria Peru Nepal Belgium Suriname Sri Lanka Cyprus Uruguay Near and Middle East** Denmark Venezuela Bahrain Finland The Caribbean Iran, Islamic Rep France Anguilla Iraq Germany Bermuda Israel Gibraltar Br. Virgin Is. Jordan Greece Cayman Is. Lebanon Ireland Cuba Qatar Italy Dominica Syrian Arab Rep. Liechtenstein Dominican Rep. United Arab Emirates Luxembourg Grenada Malta St. Lucia Monaco Turks Caicos Is. Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Total = 11 Total = 27 Total = 24 Total = 35 Total=3 * This subregion also includes Caucasian countries ** This subregion also includes countries in South-West Asia

- 5 - INDICATORS ON DRUG TRAFFICKING AND SUPPLY Statistical information on the supply of and trafficking in drugs is mainly based on the following three indicators: * Production: the volume of a drug produced is the main indicator for its supply. In order to obtain net production figures, additional factors such as cultivation, eradication and yield have to be taken into account. Data on cultivation of opium poppy and coca bush (figures for cannabis plant are not available) are provided in hectares. The current estimated global cultivation area of both opium poppy and coca bush together account for approximately 450,000 hectares worldwide which roughly equals twice the size of Luxembourg. Data on production of opium gum and coca leaf are provided in metric tonnes. Manufacture of drugs involves the refining of drugs into more purified substances, such as morphine, heroin or cocaine. * Prices are differentiated between farmgate and wholesale/retail prices. Prices are an indicator for risk, the quality of drug as well as for the interaction between supply and demand of drugs. Data on prices are expressed in US$ equivalent. Wherever a trend was presented, the price is reflected as constant US$, which is based on 1996 and takes additional factors such as inflation rate into account. As for the quality of drug at the farmgate level, in Asia, for example, prices of opium in Afghanistan and Pakistan are currently between an estimated US$ 50 and $69 per kilogramme as compared to a price range of approximately US$ 200-600 in East/South- East Asia (Laos PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam). The latter is known for its higher quality opium. * Seizure data are used as an indicator for trafficking. However, such information has to be interpreted with caution since seizures may also indicate efforts in law enforcement. Additional information is obtained if the above indicators are combined/correlated, as follows: * Value is the product of net production and (farmgate) price of a drug, and means the potential income/profits made by (all farmers in) a particular region/country with the volume of drug produced. * Interception rate is the percentage of a drug seized in proportion to its total production. The deduction of total volume of a drug seized from the total net production equals the potential availability of that drug at the market ( net supply ). It should be noted that the net supply does not necessarily equal the volume of consumption, since a number of external factors such as storage and losses of drugs, which are unknown, come into play.

- 6 - I. ILLICIT CULTIVATION AND PRODUCTION The data on cultivation and production presented in this chapter are reflected as UNDCP estimates. Figures are based on government statistics, supplemented by UNDCP surveys and additional sources. The term UNDCP estimates should be interpreted to imply that insofar as official government statistics have not been complete throughout the years, additional techniques (mainly interpolation in combination with trends described elsewhere, such as reports by field offices) have been used to fill the gaps. In the following statistics and analysis, the term cultivation refers to potential harvestable cultivation areas. Cultivation areas in which there has been eradication prior to harvest are not included. Cultivation of opium poppy and production of opium gum Illicit cultivation of opium poppy continues to take place in three main regions: East/South-East Asia, including Lao People s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam; Near and Middle East, in particular Afghanistan and Pakistan; and the Americas, mainly Colombia and Mexico. In 1996, the total area under illicit poppy cultivation was estimated at some 270,000 hectares, which is at the average level maintained since 1990. Global production of opium, which was estimated at roughly 4,400 tonnes in 1996, seems to have increased moderately during the 1990s, the peak being in 1994. The Near and Middle East subregion now accounts for more than half of the global production of opium and yet less than one third of the estimate of global poppy cultivation (this takes account not only of Afghanistan and Pakistan but also of those other Asian countries referred to in pages 8 and 10). Afghanistan is now the world s premier source of illicit opium, with approximately 56,000 hectares of surface area under cultivation and a net production of about 2,250 tonnes of opium gum per year (1996). Production in Afghanistan has risen sharply in the last decade, which was a major reason for the worldwide increase. The country s very high production volume of over 3,000 tonnes in 1994 was also responsible for the global peak of that year. In 1995, the volume of opium produced in Afghanistan decreased, and subsequently remained stable in 1996. Latest surveys for 1997, however, suggest a production growth of 25% above the 1996 total, reaching 2,800 tonnes. The main reason for this was a higher yield caused by favourable weather conditions, since cultivation remained more or less stable. Cultivation in Pakistan seemed to have decreased fivefold in 1996 compared to previous years, resulting in a cultivation area of 878 hectares and an annual production of 24 tonnes. According to the Government of Pakistan, this decrease in poppy cultivation, which took place mainly in the North West Frontier Province, is due to alternative development as well as law enforcement efforts. Some reports suggest that limited illicit cultivation takes place in other countries of the region, including Egypt, India and Lebanon. Additionally, new areas in the Central Asia subregion seem to be increasingly used to grow opium poppy. However, no information is available with regard to actual quantities cultivated and produced in these countries, some of which may only be negligible amounts. Eradication data from Egypt relate to 2,037 hectares in 1996 and 371.3 hectares in 1997.

- 7 - In East/South-East Asia, the ratio of cultivation to production differs from that in respect of the Near and Middle East, due to a different yield factor. The subregion accounts for 44% of the global estimated opium production, but for 69% of the global distribution of cultivation (1996). The total surface area under cultivation in East/South-East Asia was estimated at some 186,700 hectares in 1996. Myanmar, the second largest producer of opium worldwide and the biggest supplier in the subregion, produced an estimated 1,760 tonnes in 1996, followed by Lao PDR with 140 tonnes and Vietnam and Thailand with less than 10 tonnes each. Production in Myanmar (of which available figures vary widely depending on different sources) seems to have more or less stabilized since 1990. A current five year programme of alternative development, undertaken by the Government of Myanmar and scheduled to commence in March 1998, includes a strategy for the elimination of illicit cultivation within the country, which is one of the world s major opium producers. Estimates for Lao PDR indicate a modest rise in recent years, though this remains below the level of late 1980s/early 1990s. A survey carried out by the Government of Lao PDR revealed that this recent rise in production as well as cultivation was due to an increase in the number of families taking part in poppy cultivation. The number of villages concerned, however, remained roughly the same. This extension in the cultivation area occurred mainly in the four North-Western provinces located near to the borders with Thailand and Myanmar. On the other hand, Eastern provinces witnessed a decrease in production, which suggests a certain shift in production from East to West and a potential new development in opium poppy cultivation. Reports on production in Thailand and Vietnam refer to a sharp decline in 1993 and 1994; both countries seem since to have more or less maintained the low level of production. The reduction in Vietnam was achieved through the national strategy to eliminate illicit cultivation within ten years, which was initiated in 1993 and is based on eradication campaigns accompanied by alternative development programmes. The reduction in cultivation of opium poppy and production of opium in Thailand since 1992 was the result of successful highland development programmes and vigorous drug law enforcement efforts. The small increase in 1996 was thought to be due to favourable weather conditions, on the one hand, and rocketing farmgate prices for opium, on the other. In the Americas, production of opium is taking place in Colombia and Mexico, amounting to 101 and 54 tonnes (1996) respectively. The region accounts for 4% of the global totals of cultivation and production, with a more or less stable trend in recent years. The global trend in illicit opium production, which is thought to have realized a sharp increase during the 1980s and a moderate increase during the first half of the 1990s, followed by a peak in 1994, seemed to have stabilized in 1995 and 1996. Production in several smaller producer countries decreased over the last few years. Both major producer countries, Afghanistan and Myanmar, indicated a recent stabilization/moderate increase. Estimates for 1997, however, suggested a new rise in global production. This increase is mainly related to Afghanistan, as mentioned above. The global trend in cultivation more or less follows the production trend over the last ten year period. The following table 1 provides an overview of the global cultivation of opium poppy and production of opium, between 1986-1996, with a breakdown by subregion and country. Figure 1 is a graphical presentation of the global trends in cultivation and production over the last ten years. Figures 2 and 3 are graphical presentations of the cultivation and production situations in 1996, with a breakdown by subregion (fig. 2) and country (fig. 3).

- 8 - Table 1. Global illicit cultivation of opium poppy and production of opium, 1986-1996 (UNDCP estimates) (in hectares and metric tonnes) Year Region/subregion Cultivation* in ha ASIA Near and Middle East Afghanistan 10,000 25,000 32,000 34,300 41,300 50,800 49,300 58,300 71,470 53,759 56,824 Pakistan 6,034 5,463 6,519 7,464 7,488 7,962 9,493 7,329 5,759 5,091 873 Subtotal 16,034 30,463 38,519 41,764 48,788 58,762 58,793 65,629 77,229 58,850 57,697 East and South East Asia Lao, PDR - - 40,400 42,130 30,580 29,625 19,190 26,040 18,520 19,650 21,601 Myanmar 86,570 92,300 104,200 143,000 150,100 160,000 153,700 165,800 146,600 154,070 163,000 Thailand 2,408 3,163 2,811 2,982 1,782 3,727 3,016 998 478 168 368 Vietnam 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 18,000 17,000 12,199 4,268 3,066 1,880 1,743 Subtotal 96,978 105,463 159,411 202,112 200,462 210,352 188,105 197,106 168,664 175,768 186,712 Other Asian countries 15,000 10,713 8,093 10,750 13,054 12,145 8,430 11,778 14,250 15,739 16,190 Total Asia 128,012 146,639 206,023 254,626 262,304 281,259 255,328 274,513 260,143 250,357 260,599 LATIN AMERICA Mexico 3,865 5,160 6,700 6,600 5,450 3,765 3,310 3,960 5,795 5,050 5,100 Colombia - - - - - 1,344 6,578 10,882 17,111 11,071 6,300 Total Latin America 3,865 5,160 6,700 6,600 5,450 5,109 9,888 14,842 22,906 16,121 11,400 GLOBAL TOTAL 131,877 151,799 212,723 261,226 267,754 286,368 265,216 289,355 283,049 266,478 271,999 Production in tonnes ASIA Near and Middle East Afghanistan 350 875 1,120 1,200 1,570 1,980 1,970 2,330 3,416 2,335 2,248 Pakistan 130 120 130 149 150 160 181 161 128 112 24 Subtotal 480 995 1,250 1,349 1,720 2,140 2,151 2,491 3,544 2,447 2,272 East and South East Asia Lao, PDR - 198 267 278 202 196 127 169 120 128 140 Myanmar 935 997 1,125 1,544 1,621 1,728 1,660 1,791 1,583 1,664 1,760 Thailand 26 24 17 31 20 23 14 17 3 2 5 Vietnam 40 50 60 70 90 85 61 21 15 9 9 Subtotal 1,001 1,269 1,469 1,923 1,933 2,032 1,861 1,998 1,722 1,803 1,915 Other Asian countries 300 211 153 157 115 93 41 79 90 78 48 Total Asia 1,781 2,475 2,872 3,429 3,768 4,265 4,053 4,568 5,357 4,328 4,235 LATIN AMERICA Mexico 40 50 67 66 62 41 40 49 60 53 54 Colombia - - - - - 8 46 76 103 105 101 Total Latin America 40 50 67 66 62 49 86 125 163 158 155 GLOBAL TOTAL 1,821 2,525 2,939 3,495 3,830 4,314 4,140 4,693 5,519 4,486 4,389 * Potentially harvestable, after eradication

- 9 - Figure 1. Global trend in illicit cultivation of opium poppy and production of opium, 1986-1996 (in hectares and metric tonnes) Cultivation* (ha) 131,877 151,799 212,723 261,226 267,754 286,368 265,216 289,355 283,049 266,478 271,999 Production (mt) 1,821 2,525 2,939 3,495 3,830 4,314 4,140 4,693 5,519 4,486 4,389 * Potentially harvestable, after eradication 300,000 Global illicit opium poppy cultivation 250,000 200,000 Hectares 150,000 100,000 50,000 Estimated cultivation Trendline - Global illicit opium production 6,000 5,000 4,000 Tonnes 3,000 2,000 1,000 Estimated production Trendline -

- 10 - Figure 2. Global illicit cultivation of opium poppy and production of opium, 1996 Breakdown by subregion Global opium poppy cultivation (in percentage) Global opium production (in percentage) Latin America Other 4% Asian countries 6% Near and Middle East 21% Other Asian countries 1% Latin America 4% Near and Middle East 51% East and South East Asia 69% East and South East Asia 44% Figure 3. Global illicit production of opium, 1996 Ranking of countries (in metric tonnes) Afghanistan 2,248 Myanmar 1,760 Lao, PDR 140 Colombia Mexico Other Asian countries Pakistan 101 54 48 24 Vietnam 9 Thailand 5-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

- 11 - Cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf Illicit cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf, which were sharply rising during the 1970s and 1980s, both seem to have decreased since 1990/91. The main coca cultivating and producing countries remain Bolivia, Colombia and Peru. In 1996, the total illicit cultivation area within the three countries amounted to an estimated 178,000 hectares, which is a decline of less than 10% compared to 1995. While Peru indicated a consistent decrease of coca cultivation in recent years, cultivation in Colombia seemed to be steadily rising. Over the same period, cultivation in Bolivia reflected a stable trend. The UNDCP estimates for 1996 revealed 75,000 hectares in Peru, 67,000 ha in Colombia and 36,000 ha in Bolivia. This distribution of hectarage among the three countries indicates almost equal cultivation in Peru and Colombia (Peru still marginally higher) and about half of that in Bolivia. The distribution of hectarage in 1996, however, differs considerably from previous years, when the share of Peru s cultivation amounted to three-quarters of the global hectarage, with the remaining quarter split evenly between Bolivia and Colombia. Projections for 1997 suggest a continuation of this trend, with Peru reflecting a reduction and Colombia a growth in cultivation. Similarly, production in Peru is estimated to have declined considerably in the 1990s, while figures for Colombia indicate a rising trend over the last ten years. Estimates for production in Bolivia tend to be stable in recent years, though figures are higher than during the mid-1980s. Global coca production was estimated at more than 310,000 tonnes in 1996, most of which originated from Peru (over 130,000 tonnes or 42%). The country s production, however, declined by approximately 20% compared to 1995 and is currently almost half of its highest level in 1991. Bolivia remained the second largest producer with nearly 100,000 tonnes (or 32%) in 1996, closely followed by Colombia with an estimated 80,000 tonnes (26%). Colombia s production figures have more than doubled since the mid- 1980s, with the trend still rising. The ratio of cultivation to production differs among the three countries due to varying yield factors. Peru accounts for just over 40% of both coca cultivation and production. Colombia takes a 38% share of the total coca bush cultivation yet only 26% of the total coca leaf production. On the other hand, Bolivia s share is higher for production than for cultivation. It should be noted, however, that production in Colombia is calculated at an estimated yield, of which some sources suggest a higher factor. The following table 2 provides an overview of the global cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf, between 1986-1996, with a breakdown by country. Figures 4 and 5 are graphical presentations of the cultivation and production situations in 1996, with a breakdown by and ranking of countries. Figure 6 is a graphical presentation of the global trends in coca cultivation and production over the last ten years.

- 12 - Table 2. Global illicit cultivation of coca bush and production of cocal leaf, 1986-1996 (UNDCP estimates) (in hectares and metric tonnes) Country/year Cultivation* in ha Bolivia 25,800 29,300 36,900 40,900 38,300 35,900 33,500 35,200 36,100 36,600 36,100 Colombia 24,240 22,500 34,000 42,400 40,100 37,500 37,100 39,700 44,700 50,900 67,200 Peru 150,400 167,000 190,000 200,000 210,000 161,300 120,000 129,000 108,800 106,500 75,000 GLOBAL TOTAL** 200,440 218,800 260,900 283,300 288,400 234,700 190,600 203,900 189,600 194,000 178,300 Production in tonnes Bolivia 71,311 80,985 101,992 113,048 105,861 99,228 92,594 97,293 99,780 101,162 99,780 Colombia 29,088 27,000 40,800 50,880 48,120 45,000 44,520 47,640 53,640 61,080 80,640 Peru 150,400 167,000 190,000 200,000 210,000 242,000 240,000 223,900 162,000 159,800 131,000 GLOBAL TOTAL ** 250,799 274,985 332,792 363,928 363,981 386,228 377,114 368,833 315,420 322,042 311,420 * Potentially harvestable, after eradication ** Cultivation and production in other countries are estimated to be less than 3% Figure 4. Global illicit cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf, 1996 Breakdown by countries Global coca cultivation (in percentage) Peru 42% Bolivia 20% Global coca prodution (in percentage) Bolivia 32% Peru 42% Colombia 26% Colombia 38% Figure 5. Global illicit production of coca leaf, 1996 Ranking of countries (in metric tonnes) Peru 131,000 Bolivia 99,780 Colombia 80,640-20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,00 0 120,00 0 140,00 0

- 13 - Figure 6. Global trend in illicit cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf, 1986-1996 (in hectares and metric tonnes) Cutivation* (ha) 200,440 218,800 260,900 283,300 288,400 234,700 190,600 203,900 189,600 194,000 178,300 Production (mt) 250,799 274,985 332,792 363,928 363,981 386,228 377,114 368,833 315,420 322,042 311,420 * Potentially harvestable, after eradication Global illicit cultivation of coca bush 300,000 250,000 200,000 Hectares 150,000 100,000 50,000 Estimated cultivation Trendline - 400,000 Global illicit production of coca leaf 350,000 300,000 250,000 Tonnes 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Estimated production Trendline -

- 17 - II. TRAFFICKING Distribution of opium gum and manufacture of morphine/heroin The opium gum produced in each country is either abused domestically - for consumption (opium) as well as conversion into end products (morphine/heroin) - or illegally exported, being again available to the recipient country for consumption and /or conversion purposes. The illegal distribution of opium and subsequent manufacture of morphine and heroin primarily take place within the opium cultivating regions, thus reducing the risks to traffickers while increasing the potential profits since heroin/morphine are of higher value per unit weight than opium. After this distribution of opium gum within each region, it is estimated that Thailand, Lao PDR, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and to a lesser extent Myanmar, Malaysia, Iran, Islamic Rep., and India, have similar shares of illicit opium available for potential conversion into morphine and heroin. The opium produced in Mexico and Colombia is assumed to be used mainly for conversion into heroin, which takes place within each country. As in the case of opium, morphine and heroin are used for domestic consumption as well as illegal export. These drug types seem to differ, however, in the ratio of quantity consumed domestically (or within the cultivating regions) to the volume used for other purposes (opium: manufacture into end product; heroin: export outside the region). Additionally, this ratio differs from country to country depending on actual cultivation figures and consumption habits. A second difference is the volume and destination of exports: While most of the illegal opium export/distribution takes place within the same region as of its origin (to neighbouring countries of poppy cultivating area) and is thought to never leave the cultivating regions, most of the heroin, even though manufactured within the same geographical areas, is finally trafficked outside the region. Manufacture of cocaine The manufacture of cocaine involves an extraction from the coca leaf and purification of coca paste. Recent reports indicate that the majority of Peruvian coca growers now process the leaves directly into paste, thereby reducing the bulk of the product transported to buyers. Additionally, Colombian organizations or cooperative ventures tend to process coca leaves directly into cocaine base. Leaves and paste are no longer sold separately and enter the market only in the form of the more purified cocaine base and cocaine hydrochloride. (Further details on manufacture of narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances are included in the Annex.) Emerging trends in international trafficking: the growing role of Africa Africa is emerging as an important region for the production (cannabis), trafficking and consumption of drugs. Although sufficient data are not always available, more and more studies and reports in recent years indicate alarming trends with regard to both illicit drug trafficking and abuse.

- 18 - The continent has become a major transit point for illicit drug trafficking to markets in Europe and North America, as evidenced by the spread of international operations, mainly by West African trafficking groups, in recent years. Being confronted with increased pressure by law enforcement activities in many countries in recent years, trafficking groups, not only of West African origin but also belonging to Asian or Latin American cells, are continually looking for new and safer trafficking ways. Additionally, in the 1990s, the process of political and economic changes set in motion by the disintegration of the former USSR and the drive to liberalize the international economy have significantly increased both the magnitude and complexity of illicit drug trafficking. Trafficking groups have taken advantage of this increased volume of international trade and transportation as well as inadequate border control facilities at airports, seaports and land entry points, mainly due to lack of resources, to smuggle illicit drugs. Reports in the past indicated that cannabis was the most preponderant drug in the region, though most of this was either growing wildly or was for local traditional use. This situation was changing rapidly in recent years and cannabis has become a cash crop, grown not only to supply the increasing market of the youth in major cities of the continent but also for export, mainly to Europe and North America. Countries in Africa are responsible for a quarter of the herbal cannabis and one-tenth of cannabis resin seized worldwide. It is mainly South Africa and Morocco that account for the bulk of the African share in global seizures. (Further details on seizures are included in the following chapter as well as in the Annex.) Although the volume of heroin seized in African countries is still small by international standards, there are indications of expansion of international trafficking links to both Europe and North America. Since the 1980s, West African trafficking organizations have gained control of trafficking in heroin from the source countries in Asia to markets in Europe and America. The same established heroin routes have also been increasingly used to smuggle cocaine from Latin American sources to Europe. Psychotropic substances illegally trafficked in the region continue to be mainly central nervous system stimulants, notably amphetamines and pemoline, in particular in West and Central Africa, as well as methaqualone, originating from India and trafficked to South Africa, Zambia and other countries in Eastern Africa. In its reports of 1996 and 1997, the International Narcotics Control Board drew attention to the excessive quantities of ephedrine imported by some African states. The following trafficking maps provide some indication of the extent of Africa s involvement in the network of international drug trafficking.

- 20 - Seizures Data on drug seizures provide indications of the trafficking situation. Despite the difficulty of quantifying the significance of trafficking, owing to the nature of intelligence information and because seizure data reflect both drug trafficking and the emphasis of law enforcement efforts, statistics on seizures, particularly if observed over a longer period of time, reflect trafficking trends and facilitate the discovery of possible new developments. The following analysis and statistical presentations summarize data on annual seizure quantities of the main narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances, between 1986 and 1996. Further details are included in the Annex. In general, the volume of global seizures of most narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances increased during the last decade, along with their rise in production and manufacture. Some drugs are trafficked mainly within a particular region or limited number of countries, whereas others are more widespread. Trafficking of cannabis exceeds that of all other drugs in terms of quantity and geographical dispersion. The volume of global seizures of herbal cannabis fluctuated widely over the last ten years. A breakdown by subregion reveals that North-America (Canada, Mexico and USA) seized approximately half of the global volume in recent years. In 1996, Africa (particularly South Africa), South-America (mainly Colombia) and Western Europe took similar shares, of an average 12% each, in the global seizures of herbal cannabis. Previously, seizures in Africa fluctuated widely; South-America seemed to follow a decreasing trend, while significant seizure quantities in Western Europe have been recorded only in recent years, mainly due to high seizure reports from Netherlands. As for the ranking of countries, Colombia, which used to seize the largest quantities ten years ago, has since noted a decrease, while Mexico s seizures were rising over the same period of time and reached an immense record in 1996. South Africa and USA continue to rank among countries with the largest annual seizure quantities of herbal cannabis. Canada has reached similar figures only since 1995. The Netherlands reflected a decline in 1996, but still holds the highest seizure record in Western Europe. During the same year, Belgium, France and Spain reported an increase. Global annual seizures of cannabis resin total only one-third of those for herbal cannabis. The trend in seizures of cannabis resin reflects a sharp increase over the last ten years. The average annual volume seized since the early 1990s is more than double the average seizure quantity of the 1980s. Western Europe and the Near and Middle East account for the largest seizure volumes, followed by Africa and North America. Countries within these subregions which record the highest quantities include Pakistan, Spain and Morocco. Pakistan s seizures remained more or less stable over the last decade, while trends in Spain reflected a steady increase and reached the level of Pakistan in recent years. Seizures in Morocco were slightly lower and followed a similar growth rate to that of Spain. Additional countries that seized significant quantities in 1996 include, in order of the volume of drug seized, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, Canada, Kenya, United States of America, Turkey, the Netherlands and Sri Lanka.

- 21 - More than 80% of the global seizures of opium (raw and prepared) are made in Iran, Islamic Rep. The drug mainly originates from Afghanistan, a major source country, and is widely trafficked within the region. Iran, Islamic Rep., recorded a sharp increase of opium seizures during the 1990s with the trend still rising. The peak in global opium seizures in 1995 was mainly attributable to a unique seizure record in Pakistan. On average, other countries in the region, such as China, India and Pakistan, and increasingly countries in Central Asia, including Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, together account for over 10% of global seizures. The Near and Middle East subregion (particularly Iran, Islamic Rep., and Pakistan) also accounts for the largest quantity of heroin and morphine seizures. However, other regions also take significant shares of global seizures, including Western Europe (mainly Turkey) and East/South-East Asia. Heroin/morphine seizures were steadily rising over the last decade, but seem to have stabilized in recent years. The peak in 1993 was due to a unique seizure record in Iran, Islamic Rep. In addition, the following countries reported significant seizures of heroin/morphine in recent years: East/South-East and South Asia: China, India, Thailand; North America: USA; Western Europe: Italy, Germany, United Kingdom. Global cocaine seizures were sharply rising until 1991 but have subsequently stabilized. The USA takes the largest share in the global seizures, followed by Colombia, Mexico and Peru. All three countries more or less reflected a similar trend during the last ten years, which broadly mirrored the global pattern. Additionally, most countries in the Americas continue to record relatively large cocaine seizures. The Americas account for 90% of the global seizure volume. The only other region in the world that reports significant seizures, though to a lesser extent, remains Western Europe. In 1996, Spain reported a sharp increase in cocaine seizures. In the ARQ, part III, information on seizures of the following psychotropic substances is collected: Stimulants, Methaqualone, other depressants, LSD and other hallucinogens. Seizures of stimulants increased significantly in 1996, which was mainly due to a seizure record in the United Kingdom. The country accounted for more than half of the global seizures for that year. LSD continues to be widely trafficked in a large number of mainly developed countries. The global seizures of LSD, which were relatively low between 1993 and 1995, increased in 1996. Methaqualone is mainly seized in India and, to a lesser extent, in countries in South-East Africa, particularly South Africa. However, in 1996, seizures of methaqualone dropped significantly compared to previous years, when figures were steadily rising. Some reports related to information on trafficking in Africa suggest that methaqualone may be being increasingly replaced by other drugs, such as cocaine. (Further details on seizures of narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances are included in the Annex.) The following graphical presentations provide an overview, per page, on seizures of herbal cannabis, cannabis resin, opium, heroin/morphine, cocaine, stimulants, methaqualone and LSD.

- 22 - Seizures: Herbal cannabis Figure 7. Global trend, 1986-1996 Breakdown by subregion (in metric tonnes) 5000 4000 3000 Other regions Western Europe South America Africa North America 2000 1000 0 Table 3. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) Country Colombia 535.2 1,299.3 927.2 707.6 653.3 329.0 205.7 548.8 207.7 206.3 238.9 Mexico 192.8 394.5 277.5 752.5 594.8 255.0 404.6 494.7 528.4 780.2 1,015.8 South Africa 874.9 1,111.4 0.0 70.9 171.1 680.0 254.1 847.3 268.7 238.8 203.4 USA 662.9 622.7 524.9 335.9 171.7 139.7 345.9 382.8 358.0 455.2 130.0 Other countries of the world 726.2 784.3 502.7 1,977.7 830.6 396.6 1,119.7 1,134.1 843.1 1,363.4 935.5 Total 2,992.0 4,212.2 2,232.3 3,844.6 2,421.5 1,800.3 2,330.0 3,407.7 2,205.9 3,043.9 2,523.6 Figure 8. Trends of the three highest ranking countries, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) 1,400.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 Colombia Mexico South Africa Figure 9. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1996 (in proportion of total quantity seized worldwide) Mexico 40.3% Colombia South Africa Canada USA 9.5% 8.1% 7.0% 5.2% Netherlands 3.3% - 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45

- 23 - Seizures: Cannabis resin 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Other regions North America Africa Near and Middle East Western Europe Figure 10. Global trend, 1986-1996 Breakdown by subregion (in metric tonnes) 0 Table 4. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) Country Pakistan 250.4 159.5 146.1 140.4 240.6 236.9 188.1 189.0 189.3 357.7 192.8 Spain 47.9 59.2 90.9 64.2 70.1 104.8 121.4 160.2 219.2 197.0 247.7 Morocco 6.4 7.9 9.7 29.6 42.6 41.5 65.5 106.3 97.0 110.2 64.8 Netherlands 0.0 31.9 46.2 14.1 90.0 74.0 75.3 28.2 43.3 80.0 11.4 Other countries of the world 134.1 194.7 184.2 205.6 197.6 432.7 211.8 364.8 428.5 315.3 296.3 Total 438.8 453.2 477.1 453.9 640.9 889.9 662.1 848.5 977.3 1,060.2 813.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 Figure 11. Trends of the three highest ranking countries, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) Pakistan Morocco Spain Figure 12. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1996 (in proportion of total quantity seized worldwide) Spain Spain Pakistan Pakistan United Kingdom 8.7% United Kingdom 8.7% Morocco 8.0% Morocco Belgium 6.1% 8.0% Belgium France 4.4% 6.1% 23.7% 23.7% 30.5% 30.5% France- 0.05 4.4% 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35-0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

- 24 - Seizures: Opium raw and prepared Figure 13. Global trend, 1986-1996 Breakdown by subregion (in metric tonnes) 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 Near and Middle East Other regions - Table 5. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) Country Iran, Islamic Rep 23.8 36.8 39.4 26.2 20.3 23.0 38.3 63.9 117.1 126.6 149.6 Pakistan 3.2 7.9 3.8 4.6 8.3 5.9 3.4 4.5 14.7 109.4 7.4 India 8.7 2.9 3.3 4.9 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.9 2.3 1.3 2.9 Afghanistan 10.7 5.2 2.6 1.2 0.5 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other countries of the world 5.4 4.2 12.5 5.1 5.5 6.5 9.2 13.9 10.5 8.3 12.9 Total 51.8 57.0 61.6 42.0 36.7 41.4 52.8 85.2 144.6 245.6 172.8 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Figure 14. Trends of the three highest ranking countries, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) Iran, Islamic Rep. Pakistan India Figure 15. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1996 (in proportion of total quantity seized worldwide) Iran, Islamic Rep. Pakistan Tajikistan India China 4.3% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 86.6% Kyrgyzstan 0.9% - 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

- 25 - Seizures: Heroin and Morphine 60 50 40 Other regions North America East and South-East Asia Western Europe Near and the Middle East Figure 16. Global trend, 1986-1996 Breakdown by subregion (in metric tonnes) 30 20 10 0 Table 6. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) Country Iran, Islamic Rep. 1.5 1.5 5.0 2.0 6.3 8.5 12.0 27.7 13.8 13.1 11.2 Pakistan 5.6 5.5 6.5 9.2 6.5 5.7 2.9 4.0 6.4 10.8 5.9 Turkey 0.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.5 5.3 2.5 4.4 5.6 China 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.0 4.5 4.5 4.1 2.5 4.5 Other countries of the world 8.6 9.0 12.7 11.9 12.5 12.0 12.6 14.2 15.7 13.1 12.9 Total 15.9 17.8 25.8 25.1 28.5 29.7 34.5 55.7 42.5 43.9 40.1 Figure 17. Trends of the three highest ranking countries, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) 30.0 25.0 20.0 Iran, Islamic Rep. Pakistan Turkey 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Figure 18. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1996 (in proportion of total quantity seized worldwide) Iran, Islamic Rep. Pakistan Turkey China 11.3% 14.6% 13.9% 28.0% United Kingdom 3.2% India 3.1% - 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30

- 26 - Seizures: Cocaine 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Other regions Central America Western Europe South America North America Figure 19. Global trend, 1986-1996 Breakdown by subregion (in metric tonnes) Table 7. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) Country USA 45.0 56.4 102.4 130.1 84.8 120.3 119.8 111.0 128.9 109.0 123.5 Colombia 10.1 18.5 23.1 43.3 50.7 72.6 37.8 32.2 72.2 59.0 45.8 Mexico 5.3 9.3 15.4 39.5 49.9 50.3 38.8 45.8 22.1 22.7 23.8 Peru 50.5 40.2 36.7 9.6 34.3 7.8 7.7 8.9 10.6 22.7 19.7 Other countries of the world 17.0 27.4 35.5 40.6 69.1 71.6 70.6 70.8 88.2 75.4 102.7 Total 127.9 151.8 213.1 263.1 288.8 322.6 274.7 268.7 322.0 288.8 315.5 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Figure 20. Trends of the three highest ranking countries, 1986-1996 (in metric tonnes) USA Colombia Mexico Figure 21. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1996 (in proportion of total quantity seized worldwide) USA Colombia 14.5% 39.2% Mexico Peru Spain 4.4% 7.6% 6.2% Ecuador 3.0% - 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40

- 27 - Seizures: Stimulants Figure 22. Global trend, 1986-1996 Breakdown by subregion (in millions of doses *) 1500 1000 Other regions North America East and South-East Asia Western Europe 500 0 Table 8. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1986-1996 (in millions of doses *) Country United Kingdom 10.6 1.8 12.0 10.9 30.4 42.1 60.2 96.6 130.5 81.3 752.2 Egypt 200.4 288.1 183.9 146.8 132.6 53.6 30.0 17.5 6.5 4.1 0.4 Thailand 179.5 107.7 93.9 53.0 32.2 105.5 56.9 129.0 191.3 0.0 80.1 USA 32.4 26.0 109.5 176.2 45.5 26.1 32.1 57.5 191.8 99.8 146.9 Other countries of the world 13.9 22.5 8.4 5.8 16.9 23.2 36.7 66.8 216.7 161.8 9.7 Total 436.8 446.1 407.7 392.7 257.6 250.5 215.9 367.4 736.8 347.0 989.3 (*) Doses = Millions of doses or equivalent calculated at the rate of 1 dose = 100mg Figure 23. Trends of the three highest ranking countries, 1986-1996 (in millions of doses * ) 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 United Kingdom Egypt Thailand Figure 24. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1996 (in proportion of total quantity seized worldwide) United Kingdom China USA Philippines 10.9% 10.0% 9.5% 51.1% Thailand 5.4% Japan 4.4% - 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

- 28 - Seizures: Methaqualone Figure 25. Global trend, 1986-1996 Breakdown by subregion (in millions of doses *) 200 150 100 50 South Asia Africa 0 Table 9. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1986-1996 (in millions of doses *) Country India 6.7 6.0 6.6 3.5 8.6 17.7 29.9 58.9 181.3 81.9 8.8 Zambia 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 78.2 0.0 South Africa 1.5 14.9 1.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.8 3.5 2.7 1.0 0.6 Philippines 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 Other countries of the world 13.9 22.5 8.4 5.8 16.9 23.2 36.7 66.8 216.7 161.8 9.7 Total 22.4 43.4 16.6 10.4 28.2 43.9 72.1 129.3 428.7 322.9 19.1 (*) Doses = Millions of doses or equivalent calculated at the rate of 1 dose = 250mg Figure 26. Trends of the three highest ranking countries, 1986-1996 (in millions of doses *) 200.0 150.0 India Zambia South Africa 100.0 50.0 0.0 Figure 27. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1996 (in proportion of total quantity seized worldwide) India 91.1% South Africa Uganda USA Indonesia 5.9% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% Zambia 0.1% - 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

- 29 - Seizures: LSD 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Figure 28. Global trend, 1986-1996 Breakdown by subregion (in thousand of doses *) Other regions North America Oceania South America Western Europe Table 10. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1986-1996 (in thousand of doses *) Country Brazil 250.4 159.5 146.1 140.4 240.6 236.9 188.1 189.0 189.3 357.7 192.8 Australia 47.9 59.2 90.9 64.2 70.1 104.8 121.4 160.2 219.2 197.0 247.7 Canada 6.4 7.9 9.7 29.6 42.6 41.5 65.5 106.3 97.0 110.2 64.8 Germany 0.0 31.9 46.2 14.1 90.0 74.0 75.3 28.2 43.3 80.0 11.4 Other countries of the world 14,427.9 133,774.7 31,405.8 2,767.5 19,253.9 26,852.1 21,861.4 7,431.0 11,860.1 3,285.2 27,694.8 Total 14,732.6 134,033.2 31,698.7 3,015.8 19,697.2 27,309.3 22,311.7 7,914.7 12,408.9 4,030.1 28,211.5 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 Figure 29. Trends of the three highest ranking countries, 1986-1996 (in thousand of doses *) Brazil Canada Australia Figure 30. Countries ranked in order of volume of drug seized, 1996 (in proportion of total quantity seized worldwide) Australia 45.9% Canada 18.4% Saudi Arabia Japan 13.8% 13.0% USA 7.3% United Kingdom 0.8% - 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 (*) Doses = Thousands of doses or equivalent calculated at the rate of 1000 doses = 50mg

Key areas: seizures of herbal cannabis in tonnes, 1996 Canada European Union Eastern Europe United States of America Kazakhstan Islamic Republic of Iran Morocco China Mexico Caribbean Egypt Nepal Saudi Arabia Hongkong Colombia Venezuela India Thailand Guatemala Panama Brazil Nigeria Kenya Sri Lanka Philippines Zambia Malawi 2-9 Paraguay Zimbabwe Madagascar Oceania 10-25 Lesotho 30-55 Argentina South Africa 60-180 200-500 more than 750 Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Key areas: seizures of cannabis resin in tonnes, 1996 Canada European Union Eastern Europe Kazakhstan United States of America Morocco Syrian Arab Republic Lebanon Pakistan Nepal Oman Kenya India Sri Lanka 1-6 7-25 40-65 110 more than 300 Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Key areas: seizures of heroin and morphine in kilogrammes, 1996 Eastern Europe European Union United States of America Turkey Islamic Republic of Iran Pakistan China Hong Kong Mexico Saudi Arabia Myanmar Colombia India Thailand Malaysia Singapore 100-249 250-499 500-999 1000-2499 2500-4999 5000-9999 more than 10000 Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Key areas: seizures of cocaine in kilogrammes, 1996 Canada United States of America European Union Eastern Europe Mexico Guatemala Costa Rica Caribbean Belize Honduras Columbia Venezuela Panama Suriname Ecuador Peru Brazil 500-2499 2500-4999 5000-9999 10000-19999 20000-49999 more than 100000 Chile Bolivia Argentina Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

- 34 - III. PRICES AND VALUE Illicit drugs, just as with other commodities, have a market and are subject to its particular dynamics and instabilities. Prices are among the most complex indicators of a market, reflecting an interaction of supply and demand, competition, risk, etc. An additional complicating factor in the case of illicit drugs is their illegality/ black market structure and its suppressive features. As mentioned earlier in the document, prices of drugs are differentiated between farmgate and wholesale/retail price. Prices of drugs are, inter alia, an indication of risk in cultivation and trafficking (due to law enforcement), the quality of the substance and the interaction between supply and demand. The value of drug is the product of net production and farmgate price and represents the potential gross income made by farmers in a particular region/country with the volume of drug produced. In the following statistics, prices of drugs in Asia and Latin America are expressed in US$ equivalent. In tables and graphics that demonstrate a trend over the last ten years, additional factors such as inflation rate have been taken into account (constant US$). Prices of drugs that vary between regions within countries are expressed as an average. Farmgate level: Opium Farmgate prices of opium in Asia reported for 1996 varied between US $50 and more than $600 per kilogramme. This price difference seems to be caused, inter alia, by a different quality of drugs produced in each country/region. The opium produced in the Near and Middle East is generally considered as of lower quality, which was reflected in a low price of $50-69. On the other hand, the higher quality opium in East/South-East Asia has a price of $206-627. A similar price gap between the two subregions also existed in previous years. (See table 11 and fig. 32) Average opium prices for Asia reflected a threefold increase in 1996 compared to ten years ago. While the price for opium in most countries, and as an average in Asia, seemed to remain relatively stable between 1986 and 1992/93, a sharp rise was observed only between 1994 and 1996 (especially in East/South-East Asia). (See table 11 and fig. 31). The reason for this price increase may be a combination of various factors, one of which is assumed to be the stagnation in production in recent years; this, however, would imply that demand was constantly increasing over the last ten years, since price tends to correlate with demand and supply. In comparison, prices of opium in Colombia are still higher than the average farmgate price in Asia, despite a severe drop in the early 1990s (see fig. 33). Opium prices in Colombia are currently at the level of Thailand and Vietnam, twice as high as those in Lao PDR and Myanmar and ten times those in Afghanistan and Pakistan. (Data on prices of opium in Mexico are not available.) A correlation of the development in opium prices (at the producer s level) with the