The Future of Migration Policy: Long-term Responses Rainer Münz Erste Group Bank, Head of Research & Development IOM Interagency brown bag lunch Geneva, January 14, 2010 page 1 January 14, 2010
Where Do We Come From? page 2 IOM, January 14, 2010
100 Years Ago page 3 IOM, January 14, 2010
Global European Emigration 1750-1950 Central Asia/Siberia Palestine/Israel N & S America Algeria Southern Africa Australia, New Zealand 70 million From richer Europeans Europe emigrated to less to developed overseas peripheries destinations page 4 IOM, January 14, 2010
Indian South-South Emigration 1870-1940 Caribbean East Africa South Africa Mauritius Malaysia, Singapore Fiji Reshuffling Where did Mahatman of East Indian Gandhi labor start within his political the British career? Empire page 5 IOM, January 14, 2010
Chinese South-South + North Emigration 1850-1920 USA, Canada SE Asia Large scale export/import of Chinese labor page 6 IOM, January 14, 2010
60 Years Ago page 7 IOM, January 14, 2010
World Migration 1950 India/ Pakistan China/Taiwan N & S America Palestine/ Israel Australia, New Zealand More migrants in the South than in the North page 8 IOM, January 14, 2010
Where Are We Now? page 9 IOM, January 14, 2010
The Global Picture page 10 IOM, January 14, 2010
214 Million International Migrants page 11 IOM, January 14, 2010
This is where people come from Stocks of international migrants by country of origin page 12 IOM, January 14, 2010
and this is where they go to Stocks of international migrants by country of destination page 13 IOM, January 14, 2010
Magnet Societies US/Cdn, EU27/EEA/CH, Russia, the Gulf + Australia are home or host to 70% of the world s migrant population page 14 IOM, January 14, 2010
But let s not forget: 214 million migrants are only 3% of the world s global population page 15 IOM, January 14, 2010
Europe page 16 IOM, January 14, 2010
From Emigration to Immigration page 17 IOM, January 14, 2010
This has only changed recently ERSTE GROUP EU 27: immigration minus emigration (= net migration), 1960-2007 400 years of net emigration 25 years of net immigration Source: Eurostat page 18 IOM, January 14, 2010
Net Migration in Europe, 1950-1960 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants) below -5. -5 to -2-2 to 0 0 to +2 +2 to +5 over +5 Source: Eurostat, UN page 19 IOM, January 14, 2010
Net Migration in Europe, 1980-1990 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants) below -5. -5 to -2-2 to 0 0 to +2 +2 to +5 over +5 Source: Eurostat, UN page 20 IOM, January 14, 2010
Net Migration in Europe, 2000-2007 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants) below -5. -5 to -2-2 to 0 0 to +2 +2 to +5 over +5 Source: Eurostat, UN page 21 IOM, January 14, 2010
Today, 43 million migrants live in EU 27 Diagramm 3: Immigration population in the EU-15 by origin Migrant Stock (source: in EU Münz 27 and by Fassmann, Region of 2004) Origin, 2007 North America Africa, Asia, M ENA 3% 31% Turkey 7% other CEE/ SEE 7% Sout h A merica, Caribbean 13 % EU CE/ SEE 10 % EU West 18 % EU South 11% Total: 43 million 14 million migrants are mobile between current 27 EU member states 28 million migrants from third countries Source: EU Labour Force Survey 2007 page 22 IOM, January 14, 2010
What s Ahead of Us? page 23 IOM, January 14, 2010
Challenge No. 1: Demographic Change page 24 IOM, January 14, 2010
Aging page 25 IOM, January 14, 2010
If you had to explain it to your grandmother EU 27: age pyramid, 2008, 2060 page 26 IOM, January 14, 2010
The average European is getting older EU 27: Average Age, 1950-2050 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Median Age Average Age Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2007 page 27 IOM, January 14, 2010
Old World : Europe continues to be the world s oldest region 65+ in % Percentage of population 65+ 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2025 2050 EU27 World Quelle: UN Source: UN Population Division page 28 IOM, January 14, 2010
Our Future: More Deaths Than Births page 29 IOM, January 14, 2010
Natural Increase/Decrease, 2008 Births minus deaths per 1000 inhabitants over +5 +2.5 to +5. 0 to +2.5 0 to -2.5-2.5 to -5 below -5 Source: Eurostat 2008, CIA 2008 page 30 IOM, January 14, 2010 Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
Decrease in Population page 31 IOM, January 14, 2010
Population by Regions 1990-2000 (actual change in %) Source: BfS, Eurostat, Berlin Institute page 32 IOM, January 14, 2010
Population by Regions 2008-2031 (projected change in %) no an page Source: 33 Eurostat, Berlin Institute, national data for Belarus, IOM, Moldova, January Serbia, 14, 2010 Ukraine
Main Challenge page 34 IOM, January 14, 2010
Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (no migration) (zero migration variant; at constant labor force participation rates) 300 100% 240 238 214 52% 84% 80% 60% 180 35% 170 40% 20% 120 2008 2025 2050 0% Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 35 IOM, January 14, 2010
What can we do? Learn to shrink moderately Increase the labor force participation of women Retire at a later point in life Bring in more migrants page 36 IOM, January 14, 2010
Possible Answers page 37 IOM, January 14, 2010
Can we shrink in a moderate way? page 38 IOM, January 14, 2010
Become a large Venice page 39 IOM, January 14, 2010
Become Scandinavian page 40 IOM, January 14, 2010
Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (no migration) (zero migration variant; convergence to top 3 European countries with the highest labor force participation) 300 100% 240 180 238 35% 229 49% 203 71% 80% 60% 40% 20% 120 2008 2025 2050 0% Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 41 IOM, January 14, 2010
page 42 IOM, January 14, 2010
Employment Rates of the Elderly in EU Member States (Age Group 55-64), 2008 an page 43 IOM, January 14, 2010
Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (no migration) (zero migration variant; increase in retirement age by 10 years) 300 100% 240 180 238 35% 231 48% 68% 211 80% 60% 40% 20% 120 2008 2025 2050 0% Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 44 IOM, January 14, 2010
Bring In More Migrants page 45 IOM, January 14, 2010
page 46 IOM, January 14, 2010
Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (+50 mil. migrants) (migration variant; at constant labor force participation rates) 300 100% 240 180 238 35% 229 49% 207 72% 80% 60% 40% 20% 120 2008 2025 2050 0% Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 47 IOM, January 14, 2010
Employment Differential Between EU-Born ERSTE GROUP and Non-EU-Born by Gender, 2007 (in pts) page 48 IOM, January 14, 2010
Employment Gaps in EU 27 Among Non-EU-Born, 2007 page 49 IOM, January 14, 2010
Challenge No. 2: A Better Match page 50 IOM, January 14, 2010
Skills and Diversity How to attract make use of migrants with talents an adequate and skills? mix of skills? page 51 IOM, January 14, 2010
Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (+50 mil. migrants) (medium variant; convergence to top 3 European countries with the highest labor force participation) 300 100% 240 238 245 246 60% 80% 60% 180 35% 46% 40% 20% 120 2008 2025 2050 0% Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 52 IOM, January 14, 2010
Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (+50 mil. migrants) (medium variant; increase in retirement age by 10 years) 300 100% 240 238 247 253 59% 80% 60% 180 35% 45% 40% 20% 120 2008 2025 2050 0% Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 53 IOM, January 14, 2010
Challenge No. 3: Diversity page 54 IOM, January 14, 2010
Skills and Diversity How to manage societies with a high degree of ethnic and religious diversity page 55 IOM, January 14, 2010
Challenge No. 4: Humanitarian Responsibilities page 56 IOM, January 14, 2010
Humanitarian catastrophes Civil wars Famine, lack of water Natural disasters Source: Koser 2009 page 57 IOM, January 14, 2010
Climate change: it s real! page 58 IOM, January 14, 2010
With some obvious consequences page 59 IOM, January 14, 2010
Future Migration Policies What would be needed? page 60 IOM, January 14, 2010
What can we do? Identify gaps and shortages Improve skills assessment Adapt and retrain skills of migrants Co-develop skills with sending countries page 61 IOM, January 14, 2010
What can we do? Fight discrimination Improve the portability of acqured rights and benefits Establish honest mobility partnerships Explore circular migration page 62 IOM, January 14, 2010
We should develop smart and pro-active migration policies in the best interest of both - receiving countries and - international migrants page 63 IOM, January 14, 2010
And we should organize migration in a way that does not disrupt development opportunities in sending countries Source: Koser 2009 page 64 IOM, January 14, 2010
Thank you for your attention! rainer.muenz@erstegroup.com page 65 IOM, January 14, 2010