Self enhancement and voting intentions: A proposal for questions to be included in the ANES pilot study and in the following surveys Abstract: Self enhancement entails perceiving oneself more positively than perceiving others (Festinger, 1954) which, even when unfounded, is psychologically beneficial. Web-based experiments (N=8001), conducted immediately before the 2006 Israeli elections proved that predictive self enhancement decreased under stress, induced either by indicating that the forthcoming elections were crucial to the country s future, or by an unexpected voting recommendation. Knowing who to vote for and exposure to television news and political columns were positively associated with prediction self enhancement, the latter unrelated to actual predictive accuracy. People self enhance when they feel knowledgeable and confident, and self depreciate when they are stressed, uncertain or less knowledgeable. Men displayed more predictive self enhancement than women. Predictive self enhancement is the discrepancy between how a person rates her ability to predict the results of the elections and how she rates similar others ability. Advantageously, this does not hinge on direct comparative reports that can be prone to desirability effects. In the context of the American elections, measuring predictive self enhancement will reveal how various groups perceive their predictive ability, associating this to relevant media exposure. It can help identify populations who feel inadequate and exclude themselves of the political arena. Key words: Self enhancement, media exposure, voting certainty
Theoretical rationale: Self enhancement entails perceiving oneself in a positive manner, which is not necessarily justified, but contributes to one s self esteem. Festinger's social comparison theory (1954) accentuated self evaluation and asserted that self enhancers perceive themselves more positively than they perceive others: The larger the (positive) gap between one's self evaluation and his or her evaluation of others, the more one selfenhances. Kwan, John, Kenny, Bond and Robins (2004) meta analysis and empirical findings further linked self evaluation to adjustment. Taylor and Brown s influential work on positive illusions used the similar contention that people consistently regard themselves more positively and less negatively than they regard others (1994, p. 22). Several researchers both theorized and demonstrated that inaccurate self perception was beneficial. Taylor and Brown (1988, 1994) proposed that perceiving oneself in an illusory, overly positive light was not only a normal tendency, but one associated with objective benefits, such as improved performance and better adjustment to traumatic life events, as well as with a greater ability to be happy. Colvin and Block (1994) disputed this, claiming that an accurate self perception was imminent to healthy functioning and to integration in a social surrounding. Baumeister (1989) reconcilied the conflicting approaches. Acknowledging that overstated positive illusions might lead to risky behavior, he defined their optimal margins, associated with improved functioning alongside affective advantages. Media exposure has been extensively studied, being the main channel of acquiring political knowledge. It has been claimed that one cannot resolve the paradox of modern democracy by assuming away the importance of an informed public (Delli Carpini,
2000, p. 158). Media comprehension of news coverage appears to be moderated by previous knowledge (Price $ Zaller, 1993). This is crucialm as viewers fail to acquire such knowledge from soft or populistic media coverage (Prior, 2003). Lack of knowledge can lead to selections that are influenced by factors as trivial as the order of presentation of the candidates names (Miller & Krosnick, 1998). Recently, emerging forms of knowledge transfer (i.e., internet) have been examined in the context of political involvement (Lupia & Philpot, 2005). Recent work (Miron-Shatz, 2006) demonstrated the association between self enhancement and media exposure, as well as certainty (knowing who to vote for) - all in the context of the Israeli elections. Specifically, web-based experiments (N=8001), conducted immediately before the 2006 Israeli elections, examined the prevalence of self enhancement. Here, self enhancement referred to perceiving oneself as more satisfied with the political situation than others, as less concerned by it, and as having a superior ability to predict election results. In Studies 1-2 a stressful manipulation suggesting that the forthcoming elections were critical for Israel s future reduced prediction self enhancement of Israelis living in and out of Israel. Certainty (knowing who to vote for) and exposure to relevant media (television news and newspaper political columns) were positively associated with prediction SE. Prediction SE was unrelated to actual accuracy in predicting the election results. Studies 3-5 showed prediction and satisfaction SE to be negatively associated with stress (receiving an unexpected voting recommendation). All forms of self enhancement were positively associated with media exposure. The results indicate that people self enhance when they feel knowledgeable and confident, whereas
they self depreciate when they are stressed, uncertain or less knowledgeable. Men displayed more predictive self enhancement than women. The measure for self enhancement was derived indirectly, by calculating the difference between a person s rating of self (predictive ability, satisfaction, etc.), and her rating of a similar other. This is advantageous, as self enhancement is derived implicitly and does not hinge on the participants willingness to admit they are either better or worse than others. The importance of self enhancement as a coping mechanism has already been demonstrated (e.g., Miron-Shatz, Todorov, & Brandstaetter, 2006). We have shown that people sometimes resort to self enhancement when they feel threatened or unequipped to deal with threatening circumstances (such as suicide bombers). Interestingly, self enhancement did not necessarily correspond with an overt concern over these issues. This indicates that self enhancement can act as a seiysmograph, detecting psychological distress that would go undetected when using more explicit tools. The present study: There is virtually no other psychological literature on the conjunction between self enhancement and elections (Psychinfo, June 7 th, 2006), and the related issue of self esteem and elections only elicited 4 references. Of these, one related to the national level of the South African elections (Moller, Dickow, & Harris, 1999), and two to hind-sight bias in predicting election results (Leary, 1982; Synodinos, 1986). This study will link the self enhancement to the media exposure questions which are part of the ANES survey (e.g., V000329 A6. How many days in the past week did you watch the national network news on TV?), and likewise to questions on
intentions to vote. We will be able to see whether self enhancement is positively linked to these two constructs (as predicted by earlier research). If the association is negative, it will indicate that self enhancement in this context is utilized as a coping mechanism by people who feel ill at ease with the elections and with political knowledge. The issue of self enhancement and its relation to the importance of the relevant domain for a person can add to the exploration and further assist in identifying populations that willingly exclude themselves from political participation, and populations who wish to participate, but feel they lack the knowledge to do so. Suggested questions: 1. How well do you think you are able to predict the outcomes of the elections? 2. How well do you think most people your age are able to predict the outcomes of the elections? 3. How important do you think predicting the outcomes of the elections is? Practical considerations Predictive self enhancement is more ego-relevant than self enhancement in satisfaction with the current political situation, and is more prone to co-varying with knowledge. Calculate self enhancement by subtracting the answer to question 2 from the answer to question 1. Question 3 should appear after questions 1 and 2, preferably with a few questions and pages setting them apart.
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