Acetic Anhydride Trafficking to Afghanistan. - UNODC Afghan Opiate Trade Project -

Acetic Anhydride Trafficking to Afghanistan - UNODC Afghan Opiate Trade Project - November 2011

Heroin production process Two main inputs: 1. Opium; and 2. Acetic anhydride World opium production, 1990- Afghanistan produces 90% of the world s opium and 85% of the world s heroin. 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1990 1991 5, 6 2 0 1,583 3,416 1992 1993 1994 1995 4, 3 5 0895 1,303 2,693 4,565 1996 1997 1998 1999 World demand 5, 7 6 0 4, 6 9 0 1, 6 3 0 4, 6 2 0 312 4,100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 6, 6 10 315 6,100 8, 8 9 0 8, 6 4 0 460 8,200 410 7,700 330 6,900 7, 8 5 3 4,8 6 0 580 3,600 2006 2007 2008 2009 Afghanistan Myanmar Lao PDR Rest of the w orld Total

Acetic Anhydride Demand in Afghanistan: 300-500 labs in Afghanistan Afghan annual production of 380-400 tons of heroin Heroin to AA ration is 1:1-1.5 Afghanistan needs upwards of 500 tons of AA /year Average price per litre in Afghanistan: $400 - total AA market value of up to $200,000,000 in Afghanistan

Global Licit Production of AA 2 000 000 tons of AA produced annually, approximately 1/3 traded internationally. The current working mechanism and procedures allow tracking of individual shipments -It is now practicable to prevent international diversions.....aa Increasingly diverted from domestic trade Some countries targeted by traffickers: EU states Korea Japan China

Indicator: Acetic Anhydride global AA seizures 1999- Main seizing countries 2008- Afghanistan 20% Turkey 8% Other countries 30% Slovenia 19% Hungary 14% Pakistan 9%

Supply: Global AA seizures & flows to Afghanistan 2000- Main flows from: 1. EU & The Balkan route 2. East Asia 3. South Asia

The reverse Balkan route: AA seizures 2008- Diversion More than 200 tons of AA seized in Europe since 2008 Smuggling

FRONT COMPANIES

EU and the Balkan route: General Risk Factors Legislation Mislabeling Balkans at risk of being targeted Entrenched groups

Targeting East Asia (Korea) 2007-2009 2009 More than 67 tons of AA seized in Korea since 2008 2009 2008 2008 420kg in

Case: 10 tons of AA in Korea (2009) Purchase price: $2 per litre Sale price: $25 per litre Price: $400 per litre Potential profit: $230 000

Targeting East Asia (China) 2007- In addition, 90 tons reportedly smuggled from China to Afghanistan in 2007-2009

Targeting South Asia (India) 2008-

Targeting East and South Asia: risk factors Numerous AA operators which may exceed law enforcement ability to exert regulatory controls. Some may be loosely following or even ignorant of chemical regulations - several cases of chemical broker direct involvement. Huge outgoing trade flows (8 of the top ten ports in terms of container volumes are in the region), transiting containers are rarely checked. Concealed among other goods in containers (Korea) Japan targeted for the first time (8.5 tons seized) Chemicals hidden inside the container (Korea/Japan) ; misdeclared/mislabelled as water soluble paint paint or hydrogen peroxide (Korea/China). Sea trafficking offers higher mark-ups for traffickers, logistical edge over land routes Sealed as fabric material (Korea) Hidden inside used cars/car parts in containers (Japan/Korea)

Afghanistan & neighbouring countries: 2008- AA seizures & main flows 80%

The Northern Route: 2000-2011 2011 2007 2011

The Afghanistan region: general risk factors Iran-Turkey border few seizures and instability; Iran-Iraq border limited information; Afghanistan-Pakistan border insecurity/low government presence Sea trafficking 80% of seizures high volumes of container traffic at Bandar Abbas seaport (2 million containers incoming and outgoing), 1% of incoming containers can be scanned. 1000s of loaded cargo containers arriving at Karachi port each month. Difficult to accurately target at-risk containers. The transit trade flowing through Pakistan constitutes a major portion of Afghan total trade, (38 per cent of imports and 52 per cent of exports). Traffickers can blend into these licit trade flows. Threat perception at the borders Traffickers may (re)turn to other routes (Northern route, South Asia) or other seaports on the Iranian or Pakistani coast.

AA flows and seizures in Afghanistan 2003-140 litres seized (Jan 2011) 3457 kg (Dec 201o) 5664 kg (Apr. 201o)

AA seizures in Afghanistan, 2003- AA seizures ratio Afghanistan AA seizure ratio actual seizures 8% Afghan demand 92% US$15 Million worth of AA seized in

Integrity/ Security/rule of law situation in Afghanistan major impediment. Afghanistan: risk factors In several cases, the insurgents and traffickers are the same network, in some cases there is overlap with government officials as well. Threat perception remains low Increasing trade flows Huge volume of truck traffic where smugglers can hide shipments (500 trucks a day through Wesh-Chaman) First seizures at border checkpoints but 600 km with no controls next to the world s biggest concentration of heroin labs High insecurity & Opiate production 500 km open borders AA prices rising but no AA shortages reported.

Morphine seizures in countries neighbouring Afghanistan since 2002 More than 20 tons seized in 2009 Seized mostly in the border areas of Iran/Pakistan No large user market for morphine 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 Global morphine seizures (1999-2009) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Afghanistan Islamic Republic of Iran Pakistan Turkey The intended use and trajectory of these morphine shipments remain unknown.

Chemical seizures in countries neighbouring Afghanistan, 2008-

Data limitations Filling the Data and Knowledge Gaps Develop national and regional capacity for information collection, exchange and analysis AOTP/Paris Pact online database (AA, opiates, prices, purity) http://heroin2011.dbroca.uz Better and more timely research outputs to fill the gaps and inform precursor control efforts.