PSG's Weekly Chart Perspective Portfolio Strategy Group Report Date: Monday, November 15, 21 Daily Close UST 1 Year CMT 5 Year History 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. US Recession Nov-5 Feb-6 May-6 Aug-6 Nov-6 Feb-7 May-7 Aug-7 Nov-7 Feb-8 May-8 Aug-8 Nov-8 Feb-9 May-9 Aug-9 Nov-9 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Yield to Maturity YIELD CURVES Treasury, Agency Bullets, California GO US TREASURY AGENCY BULLETS California GO 6.6 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.1.6.1 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 24 26 28 3 Maturity Years ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. This does not purport to be a complete statement of all material facts relating to securities mentioned. The information contained, while not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness, has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This notice shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities law of any such state. Stone & Youngberg LLC and its officers and employees may have an interest in some or all of any securities mentioned herein. Member FINRA/SIPC. Stone & Youngberg LLC, 1 Ferry Building San Francisco, CA 94111.
PSG Chart Perspective INTEREST RATE TRENDS 11/15/21 UST Yield Curves Year Ago, 3 Days Ago, Current 1 Week Ago Yield C. Current Yield C. Yr Ago Yield C. 4.5 3. 2.75 9 Day Trend 3 Month T-Bill & 1 Year CMT 3 Mo T-Bill Yield 1 year CMT 4. 2.5 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 2.25 2. 1.75 1.5 1.25 1..75 1..5.5.25.. 5 1 15 2 25 3 MATURITY YEARS -.25 Aug-17 Aug-27 Sep-6 Sep-16 Sep-26 Oct-6 Oct-26 Nov-5 Nov-15 SWAP Curve Year Ago, 3 Days Ago, Current Yr Ago Yield C. 1 Week Ago Yield C. Current Yield C. 3.9 9 Day Trend 2 YEAR, 1 YEAR & 3 YEAR CMS 2 year CMS 1 year CMS 3 year CMS 3.99 3.4 3.49 2.9 2.99 2.49 1.99 2.4 1.9 1.49 1.4.99.9.49 2 6 1 14 18 22 26 3 MATURITY YEARS.4 Aug-17 Aug-27 Sep-6 Sep-16 Sep-26 Oct-6 Oct-26 Nov-5 Nov-15 Agency & Treasury Yield Curves Current AGY Yield Curve Current UST Curve Agency Zero, TSY Strip & Current TSY Yield Curves Agency Zero Treasury Strip Current UST Curve 3.51 3.1 2.51 2.1 1.51 1.1 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..51 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 MATURITY YEARS.5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 MATURITY YEARS STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 2 of 9
PSG Chart Perspective MORTGAGE STATISTICS 11/15/21 1 YEAR Weekly Close 1 Year TSY, 3 Yr Jumbo Mtge & FNMA 3 Yr Commitment Rate Jumbo Mtge (Left Scale) FNMA Comt Rate (Left Scale) 1 Yr TSY (Right Scale) 4. 1 YEAR Weekly Close SPREAD 3 Yr FNMA Mtge - 1 Year TSY & 3 Yr Jumbo - 1 Year TSY Spread 3 Yr FNMA Mtge Spread 3 Yr Jumbo Mtge - 1 Yr TSY 6. 3.8 271 5.5 3.6 3.4 241 5. 3.2 211 3. 181 4.5 2.8 151 4. 2.6 2.4 121 3.5 2.2 91 Dec-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Dec-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 1 YEAR Weekly Close MBA Purchases & Refi Indices NSA 346 Mortgage Purchases (Left Scale) Mortgage Refinancings (Right Scale) 4,87 WEEKLY CLOSING: 1 Yr ARM, 3 Yr FNMA & JUMBO MTG RATES 296 4,37 Trading Day 1 Year ARM 3 Year FNMA 3 Year JUMBO 246 196 146 96 3,87 3,37 2,87 2,37 1,87 1,37 12-Nov-1 3.11% 3.84% 5.17% 5-Nov-1 3.7% 3.67% 5.11% 29-Oct-1 3.9% 3.79% 5.16% 22-Oct-1 3.9% 3.68% 5.23% 15-Oct-1 3.12% 3.7% 5.23% 8-Oct-1 3.18% 3.62% 5.24% 1-Oct-1 3.18% 3.77% 5.29% 24-Sep-1 3.18% 3.76% 5.32% 17-Sep-1 3.65% 3.92% 5.34% 1-Sep-1 3.68% 3.9% 5.4% 3-Sep-1 3.68% 3.78% 5.5% 27-Aug-1 3.65% 3.72% 5.45% 2-Aug-1 3.65% 3.69% 5.34% Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Source: Bankrate.com US and efanniemae.com 24 1 YEAR Weekly Close MBA Total Average Loan Size Current MBA Ave Loan Size = 229.8 4.1 1 YEAR Weekly Close 1 Yr ARM (Bankrate.com) vs. 12 Mo LIBOR 1 Year ARM 12 Month LIBOR 235 3.6 23 3.1 2.6 225 2.1 22 215 21 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 1.6 1.1.6 Dec-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 3 of 9
PSG Chart Perspective EQUITY/COMMODITY INDICES 11/15/21 1,24 DJIA and S&P INDICES - 9 Day Trend DJIA (RIGHT scale) S&P 5 (LEFT scale) 11,44 21 NASDAQ FINANCIAL INDEX (1 largest financial companies) 1,22 11,34 1,2 11,24 25 1,18 11,14 2 11,4 1,16 1,94 195 1,14 1,84 1,12 1,74 19 1-Oct 6-Oct 11-Oct 14-Oct 19-Oct 22-Oct 27-Oct 1-Nov 4-Nov 9-Nov 12-Nov $88 CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE $ bbl. - 3 Day Trend $1,41 $1,4 GOLD SPOT PRICE $ oz - 3 Day Trend $86 $84 $1,39 $1,38 $1,37 $1,36 x $82 $8 $1,35 $1,34 $1,33 $1,32 $78 $1,31 1-Oct 6-Oct 11-Oct 14-Oct 19-Oct 22-Oct 27-Oct 1-Nov 4-Nov 9-Nov 12-Nov 4-Oct 7-Oct 12-Oct 15-Oct 2-Oct 25-Oct 28-Oct 2-Nov 5-Nov 1-Nov 15-Nov 1-Oct 6-Oct 11-Oct 14-Oct 19-Oct 22-Oct 27-Oct 1-Nov 4-Nov 9-Nov 12-Nov DOLLAR INDEX SPOT 1973=1 CRB INDEX - 3 Day Trend 78.6 321 78.1 77.6 316 311 36 77.1 31 76.6 296 291 76.1 286 75.6 16-Oct 19-Oct 22-Oct 25-Oct 28-Oct 31-Oct 3-Nov 6-Nov 9-Nov 12-Nov 15-Nov 281 4-Oct 7-Oct 12-Oct 15-Oct 2-Oct 25-Oct 28-Oct 2-Nov 5-Nov 1-Nov 15-Nov STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 4 of 9
PSG Chart Perspective AGENCY BULLET SPREADS 11/15/21 AGENCY BULLET SPREADS 5 Yr and 1 Yr MATURITIES WEEKLY 5 YR AGY SPREAD - END OF WEEK WEEKLY 1 YR AGY SPREAD - END OF WEEK END OF WEEK SPREAD 5 Yr AGY vs. 5 Yr UST Average Spread = 25 END OF WEEK SPREAD 1 Yr AGY vs. 1 Yr UST Average Spread = 28 41 47 36 42 37 31 32 26 27 22 21 17 16 12 7 11 2 Jan-8 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-2 Apr-3 Aug-2 Jan-8 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-2 Apr-3 Aug-2 DAILY 5 YR AGY SPREAD - Last 21 Trading Days DAILY 1 YR AGY SPREAD - Last 21 Trading Days DAILY SPREAD 5 Yr AGY vs. 5 Yr UST Average Spread = 18 DAILY SPREAD 1 Yr AGY vs. 1 Yr UST Average Spread = 15 18 21 17 19 16 17 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 1/15 1/21 1/27 11/2 11/8 11/12 11 1/15 1/21 1/27 11/2 11/8 11/12 SPREAD: 5 YEAR AGENCY vs UST SPREAD: 1 YEAR AGENCY vs UST End of Week DAILY End of Week DAILY 16 11/12 16 11 11/12 11 Nov-5 15 11/11 16 Nov-5 15 11/11 12 Oct-29 16 11/1 16 Oct-29 15 11/1 12 Oct-22 19 11/9 17 Oct-22 16 11/9 17 18 11/8 17 14 11/8 16 Oct-8 16 11/5 15 Oct-8 13 11/5 15 Oct-1 26 11/4 17 Oct-1 21 11/4 17 Sep-24 27 11/3 17 Sep-24 25 11/3 17 25 11/2 17 28 11/2 16 Sep-1 24 11/1 17 Sep-1 28 11/1 16 Sep-3 23 1/29 16 Sep-3 26 1/29 15 Aug-27 22 1/28 17 Aug-27 26 1/28 17 Aug-2 21 1/27 2 Aug-2 23 1/27 16 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 5 of 9
PSG Chart Perspective CORPORATE SPREADS 11/15/21 MOODY'S CORPORATE AA & BAA RATED INDICES SPREADS 3 Yr Maturity SPREAD WEEKLY 3 YR MOODY'S AA-Rated Index vs 3 Yr UST SPREAD WEEKLY 3 YR MOODY'S BAA-Rated vs 3 Yr UST END OF WEEK SPREAD 3 Yr Moody's AA-Rated CORP vs 3 Yr UST Average Spread = 96 END OF WEEK SPREAD 3 Yr Moody's BAA-Rated CORP vs 3 Yr UST Average Spread = 186 12 22 11 1 2 9 18 8 16 7 6 14 Jan-8 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-2 Apr-3 Aug-2 Jan-8 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-2 Apr-3 Aug-2 DAILY 3 Yr MOODY'S AA-Rated Index SPREAD - 21 Trading Days DAILY 3 Yr MOODY'S BAA-Rated Index SPREAD - 21 Trading Days DAILY SPREAD 3 Yr Moody's AA-Rated CORP vs. 3 Yr UST Average Spread = 92 DAILY SPREAD 3 Yr Moody's BAA-Rated CORP vs. 3 Yr UST Average Spread = 186 98 188 96 94 183 92 178 9 173 88 86 1/14 1/2 1/26 11/1 11/5 11/11 168 1/14 1/2 1/26 11/1 11/5 11/11 SPREAD: 3 YEAR MOODY'S AA-Rated Corporate vs UST SPREAD: 3 YEAR MOODY'S BAA-Rated Corporate vs UST DAILY YIELD SPREAD DAILY YIELD SPREAD 11/11 5.11 87 11/11 4.31 173 11/1 5.11 88 11/1 4.29 173 11/9 5.12 87 11/9 4.24 172 11/8 5.2 9 11/8 4.23 173 11/5 5.2 9 11/5 4.25 173 11/4 4.94 87 11/4 4.12 17 11/3 4.97 93 11/3 4.12 179 11/2 4.85 92 11/2 4.7 178 11/1 4.94 94 11/1 4.4 179 1/29 4.93 95 1/29 3.93 18 1/28 4.99 94 1/28 4. 18 1/27 4.98 92 1/27 3.98 178 1/26 4.94 94 1/26 4.5 18 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 6 of 9
PSG Chart Perspective CALIFORNIA GO SPREADS 11/15/21 MOODY'S AAA MUNI INDEX vs. UST SPREADS 1 Yr & 2 Yr Maturities WEEKLY 1 Yr Moody's AAA & 1 Yr UST - End of Week Trend WEEKLY 2 Yr Moody's AAA & 2 Yr CMT - End of Week Trend WEEKLY 1 Yr Moody's AAA Muni & 1 Yr UST WEEKLY 2 Yr Moody's AAA Muni & 2 Yr CMT 3.96 1 Year Moody's AAA Muni 1 Year Treasury 4.63 2 Year Moody's AAA Muni 2 Year CMT 3.76 4.43 3.56 4.23 3.36 4.3 Yield 3.16 2.96 2.76 2.56 2.36 Yield 3.83 3.63 3.43 3.23 3.3 2.16 2.83 Jan-8 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-2 Apr-3 Aug-2 SPREAD - WEEKLY 1 Yr Moody's AAA Muni vs 1 Yr UST SPREAD - WEEKLY 2 Yr Moody's AAA vs 2 Yr CMT SPREAD 1 Yr Moody's AAA vs. 1 Yr UST Average Spread = -45 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 -1-11 -12 Jan-8 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-2 Apr-3 Aug-2 Jan-8 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-2 Apr-3 Aug-2 SPREAD 2 Yr Moody's AAA Muni vs. 2 Yr CMT Average Spread = -28 SPREAD IN BPS 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Jan-8 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-2 Apr-3 SPREAD IN BPS Aug-2 SPREAD: 1 YEAR Moody's AAA vs UST SPREAD: 2 YEAR Moody's AAA vs CMT Weekly Yield Spread Weekly Yield Spread 2.74-5 4. 12 Nov-5 2.79 26 Nov-5 2.86-79 Oct-29 2.79 19 Oct-29 4. 34 Oct-22 2.77 21 Oct-22 3.98 42 2.71 15 3.63 11 Oct-8 2.5 11 Oct-8 3.72 33 Oct-1 2.49-2 Oct-1 3.59 21 Sep-24 2.57-4 Sep-24 3.64 16 2.53-21 3.63 8 Sep-1 2.4-39 Sep-1 3.58 1 Sep-3 2.18-52 Sep-3 3.24-12 Aug-27 2.31-34 Aug-27 3.39 7 Aug-2 2.41-2 Aug-2 3.49 7 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 7 of 9
PSG Chart Perspective ECONOMIC STATISTICS 11/15/21 6. 5. 4. 3. REAL GDP Q-Q - Quarterly % Change 6 Year History Average = 1.4 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. Monthly CPI YOY ALL ITEMS & CORE CPI All Items CPI Core 2. 1.. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. -1. 1.5-2. -3. 1..5. -4. -.5-5. -6. -7. QTR4 4 QTR3 5 QTR3 6 QTR3 7 QTR3 8 QTR3 9 QTR3 1-1. -1.5-2. -2.5 Oct-7 Mar-8 Aug-8 Jan-9 Jun-9 Nov-9 Apr-1 Sep-1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE % - Monthly (Revised) Last 36 Months NON FARM PAYROLLCHAGE (Revised) Monthly = bar 3 Month Moving Avg. = line 1.4 9.9 4 9.4 3 8.9 2 8.4 1 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.4-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 4.9-7 4.4 Nov-7 Apr-8 Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1-8 Apr-8 Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 HOUSING STARTS & BUILDING PERMITS Monthly Trends TRADE BALANCE $ billion - Monthly Last 36 Months 127 Housing starts Building Permits. 117-1. 17-2. 97-3. 87 77 67 57 47 Oct-7 Mar-8 Aug-8 Jan-9 Jun-9 Nov-9 Apr-1 Sep-1-4. -5. -6. -7. Oct-7 Mar-8 Aug-8 Jan-9 Jun-9 Nov-9 Apr-1 Sep-1 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 8 of 9
PSG Chart Perspective ECONOMIC STATISTICS II 11/15/21 PCE Deflator (% Change - YoY) Monthly Non-Farm Productivity (% Change - QoQ) 4.9 9. 4.4 8. 3.9 7. 3.4 6. 2.9 5. 2.4 4. 1.9 1.4.9 3. 2..4 1. -.1. -.6-1. -1.1 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1-2. QTR3 7 QTR1 8 QTR3 8 QTR1 9 QTR3 9 QTR1 1 QTR3 1 US Personal Consumption (% Change - QoQ) Fed Consumer Credit Total Net Change (MoM - In Billions) 2.8 $4 2.3 1.8 1.3.8.3 -.3 -.8 $2 $ -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 -$1 -$12-1.3 -$14-1.8 -$16-2.3 -$18-2.8 -$2-3.3 -$22-3.8 QTR3 7 QTR1 8 QTR3 8 QTR1 9 QTR3 9 QTR1 1 QTR3 1 -$24 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 1.7 US Personal Income (% Change - MoM) 1.3 US Personal Spending (% Change - MoM) 1.5 1. 1.2.8 1..5.7.3.5.2 -.1 -.3 -.6 -.8-1.1 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1. -.3 -.5 -.8-1. -1.3 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 9 of 9