FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Jeffrey leads in Brampton Sanderson closing the gap HIGHLIGHTS: OCTOBER 16th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 1020 Brampton voters, just more than 4- in- 10 decided and Just more than 4- in- 10 leaning will support Linda Jeffrey for mayor (42%), compared to more than a quarter decided and leaning will who will vote for John Sanderson (27%). This stands in contrast to three weeks ago, support Linda Jeffrey for when Jeffrey had the same vote share, but Sanderson was further behind mayor (42%), compared to (September 27, Jeffrey - 42%, Sanderson - 17%). Mayor Susan Fennel, who was tied more than a quarter who will with Sanderson previously, has fallen further back (14%), while just more will vote vote for John Sanderson another candidate (17%). (27%). Among those aware of her Jeffrey favourables down, Sanderson awareness up (71%), Linda Jeffrey has the Among those aware of her (71%), Linda Jeffrey has the approval of two thirds, (67%) approval of two thirds, (67%) down from 8- in- 10 three weeks ago (80%). Sanderson's awareness is up (from 53% down from 8- in- 10 three to 63%) and his approval is steady at two thirds (63% now, 67% previously). Mayor weeks ago (80%). Fennell has the approval of just one quarter (23%). Two thirds of Brampton voters want Mayor Fennell to Two thirds want Fennell to resign resign (68%) and this is Two thirds of Brampton voters want Mayor Fennell to resign (68%) and this is comparable to the last time comparable to the last time we asked (September 27-63%). we asked (September 27-63%). Low taxes most important issue in election Keeping taxes low is the most Keeping taxes low is the most important issue in this election (40%), followed by important issue in this ethics and transparency at city hall (23%) and jobs and growth (17%). Although other election (40%), followed by issues are equally important to all three candidates, ethics and transparency at city ethics and transparency at hall count for more to Jeffrey supporters (30%) and Sanderson voters (31%) than to city hall (23%) and jobs and Fennell's supporters (6%). growth (17%). "It's clear that the issue here is not jobs and growth or keeping taxes low, but Mayor "It's clear that the issue here is not jobs and growth or Fennell herself. She has succeeded in making this election about her, and she's going keeping taxes low, but Mayor to lose as a result," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. Fennell herself. She has Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be succeeded in making this reached at or at (416) 960-9603. election about her, and she's going to lose as a result," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff 1 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
Methodology The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1020 randomly selected voters in Brampton, Ontario. The poll was conducted on October 16th, 2014. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian- owned Forum Research is one of the country s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www.forumresearch.com/polls.asp 2 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
Mayoral Trial Heats Trending Fennell / Jeffrey / Sanderson % Oct 16, 2014 Sep 28, 2014 August 7-8,2014 April 27, 2014 Mar 29, 2014 Sample Susan Fennell Linda Jeffrey 913 928 1178 822 1019 14 19 17 23 20 42 63 64 60 61 John Sanderson 27 - - - - Other / Don t Know 17 17 20 17 19 Mayor Susan Fennell Approval - Trending % Oct 16, 2014 Sep 28, 2014 August 7-8,2014 April 27, 2014 Mar 29, 2014 Sample 1020 928 1178 822 899 Approve 23 28 21 28 29 Disapprove 77 72 78 72 71 Mayoral Candidate Approval - Ranking % Approve 67 60 23 Linda Jeffrey John Sanderson Susan Fennell Disapprove 33 40 77 Aware 71 63 - Mayor Susan Fennell Resignation - Trending % Oct 16, 2014 Sep 28, 2014 August 7-8,2014 Sample Should Resign Should not Resign 1020 928 1178 68 63 69 23 29 23 3 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
Fennell / Jeffrey / Sanderson If the election for Brampton s mayor were held today, who would you vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which candidate are you leaning towards? [Decided / Leaning] Age / Gender % Total 18-34 Sample Susan Fennell Linda Jeffrey John Anderson Some other candidate 913 14 42 27 17 65 17 33 22 28 35-44 45-54 107 12 42 32 14 225 14 49 28 9 55-64 240 7 50 31 12 65+ Male Female 276 14 47 29 10 424 14 41 30 15 489 13 44 25 18 Household Income % Sample Susan Fennell Linda Jeffrey John Anderson Some other candidate 913 14 42 27 50 18 17 31 $20- $40K 150 16 45 23 17 34 16 Total <$20K $40- $60K 161 14 35 25 $60- $80K 125 10 44 35 $80- $100K 91 14 55 27 $100- $250K 150 8 46 31 26 12 4 15 $250K+ 21 53 24 6 17 Region % Total NW NE Sample Susan Fennell Linda Jeffrey John Anderson Some other candidate 913 14 42 27 17 169 14 37 33 16 363 159 163 9 20 14 54 29 41 24 29 30 13 22 14 SW SE 4 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
Approval of Linda Jeffrey Do you approve or disapprove of Linda Jeffrey? [Heard of Linda Jeffrey] Age / Gender % Total 18-34 Sample Approve Disapprove 797 67 33 48 66 34 35-44 45-54 85 69 31 191 74 26 55-64 224 66 34 65+ Male Female 249 60 40 359 66 34 438 69 31 Household Income % Total <$20K Sample Approve Disapprove 797 67 33 30 52 48 $20- $40K 132 70 30 $40- $60K 136 57 43 $60- $80K 109 71 29 $80- $100K 77 78 22 $100- $250K 137 69 31 $250K+ 18 69 31 Region % Total NW NE Sample Approve Disapprove 797 67 33 138 66 34 341 132 142 70 62 61 30 38 39 SW SE 5 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
Approval of John Sanderson Do you approve or disapprove of John Sanderson? [Heard of John Sanderson] Age / Gender % Total 18-34 Sample Approve Disapprove 710 60 40 44 53 47 35-44 45-54 70 69 31 157 65 35 55-64 202 62 38 65+ Male Female 237 58 42 327 60 40 383 60 40 Household Income % Total <$20K Sample Approve Disapprove 710 60 40 28 55 45 $20- $40K 103 65 35 $40- $60K 117 62 38 $60- $80K 96 66 34 $80- $100K 69 47 53 $100- $250K 133 55 45 $250K+ 20 42 58 Region % Total NW NE Sample Approve Disapprove 710 60 40 128 60 40 279 122 148 58 59 65 42 41 35 SW SE 6 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
Approval of Susan Fennell Overall do you approve or disapprove of the job Susan Fennell is doing as Mayor of Brampton? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total 18-34 Sample Approve Disapprove 1020 23 77 77 25 75 35-44 45-54 126 23 77 252 24 76 55-64 265 15 85 65+ Male Female 300 21 79 472 22 78 548 24 76 Household Income $20- $40K 170 30 70 $40- $60K 173 24 76 % Total <$20K Sample Approve Disapprove 1020 23 77 59 16 84 % Total NW NE Sample Approve Disapprove 1020 23 77 193 25 75 394 175 177 17 26 15 83 74 85 $60- $80K 137 24 76 $80- $100K 101 19 81 $100- $250K 162 24 76 $250K+ 23 15 85 Region SW SE 7 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
Fennell Resignation Do you think Mayor Susan Fennell should resign or not? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total 18-34 Sample Think she should resign Do not think she should resign Don't know 1020 68 23 9 77 69 22 9 35-44 45-54 126 64 28 8 252 68 24 8 55-64 265 71 20 9 65+ Male Female 300 70 22 9 472 69 23 8 548 67 24 9 Household Income % Sample Think she should resign Do not think she should resign Don't know 59 $20- $40K 170 $40- $60K 173 $60- $80K 137 $80- $100K 101 $100- $250K 162 68 65 65 72 66 80 64 57 23 21 24 21 25 15 32 43 9 14 11 7 9 5 4 0 Total <$20K 1020 $250K+ 23 Region % Total NW NE Sample Think she should resign Do not think she should resign Don't know 1020 68 23 9 193 65 24 11 394 175 177 79 61 69 16 33 27 5 6 4 SW SE 8 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
Most Important Issue What is the most important issue in this election to you? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % 1020 17 40 18-34 77 21 45 35-44 126 18 41 45-54 252 17 38 55-64 265 17 34 300 8 38 472 14 35 548 20 46 23 14 20 25 30 36 30 16 6 4 1 5 3 6 5 2 3 4 5 3 1 10 2 9 4 0 5 2 6 4 1 4 3 5 3 2 4 4 7 5 1 7 3 6 3 1 4 3 Total Sample Jobs and growth Keeping taxes low Ethics and transparency at city hall Rapid transit Policing Solid waste removal Something else Don't know 65+ Male Female Mayoral Preference 1020 17 40 23 Susan Fennell 99 15 50 6 Linda Jeffery 412 18 37 30 John Sanderson 255 13 41 31 Other Candidate 104 20 44 13 6 4 1 5 3 3 12 0 11 3 8 2 1 4 2 6 4 0 3 1 7 1 6 5 3 % Total Sample Jobs and growth Keeping taxes low Ethics and transparency at city hall Rapid transit Policing Solid waste removal Something else Don't know 9 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960-9603 Fax: (416) 960-9602 E- mail: 10 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com