U.S. Flock Trends and Projections JULY 15, 2015 Compiled by Maro Ibarburu Sponsored in part by:!!! The Egg Industry Center Market Reports & Industry Analysis are compiled in the memory of their creator, Don D. Bell, Poultry Extension Specialist Emeritus - UC Davis.
U.S. EGG INDUSTRY STATISTICAL REPORT SUMMARY * The May hatch (straight-run chicks) was 3.0% lower than in 2014. This projects forward to a 21.5 million pullet placement for October of 2015 which is 0.7 million smaller than October of 2014 placement (22.2). * Current (May average, 2015) U.S. table egg layer number (283.3 million) is 6.7 million smaller than last year's number at this time (303.6 million), and down 16.7 million compared to last month (300.0 million). * In May, Iowa led the nation with 43.0 million laying hens compared to 30.8 million in Ohio, 25.6 million in Indiana, and 23.4 million in Pennsylvania. California (with 12.8 million layers) lost it's 5th position to Texas with 14.9 million layers. * The May U.S. rate of lay was estimated to be 78.1% which is 0.2% higher than the May 2014 level (77.9%). The total number of table eggs produced in May 2015 was 6.5% lower than the May 2014 production. * The May 2015 number of eggs exported was 24% lower than last year (May 2014) and 22% lower than last month (April 2015). * Shell eggs broken for products in May 2015 totaled 5.533 million cases, 15.1% less than in May 2014 (6.514 million cases). Monthly Highlights (Compared to May a year ago) (% change) - U.S. 2014 2015 % Change Hatch - Egg-Type Straight Run (thousands) (U.S.) 49,146 47,652-3.0 Table Egg Layers (millions) (U.S.) 303.6 283.3-6.7 Rate of lay (percent) 77.9 78.1 0.1 Molting (June 1, 2015) (percent in + out of a molt) 20.2 19.7-0.5 Year-end layers (millions) - U.S. Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Million 290.9 290.6 284.7 285.6 285.2 286.8 290.1 294.6 300.4 304.8 290.6* * estimated value The avian influenza outbreak created a large reduction on the U.S. flock; therefore, we expect our flock projections to be less accurate than normal until the situation stabilizes. NOTE: Data for the previous month may be changed by the USDA to reflect updates following late submissions by responders. Page 1 of 19, Summary
TABLE&OF&CONTENTS Table&Name Table&# Page Sheet&or&Section Egg!Type:!U.S.!Eggs!In!Incubators!and!Straight!Run!Hatch 1 3 U.S.!Volume Average!U.S.!Layers!and!Table!Egg!Layers 2 3 U.S.!Volume U.S.!All!Eggs,!Table!Eggs!and!Rate!of!Lay 3 4 U.S.!Volume Shell!Eggs!Broken!Under!Federal!Inspection 4 5 U.S.!Volume Per!Capita!Egg!Consumption!by!Quarter! 5 5 U.S.!Volume Induced!Molt!Percent!O!U.S.!Totals!(1st!of!Month) 6 6 U.S.!Volume Slaughter!of!Light!Fowl 7 6 U.S.!Volume Export!of!Table!Eggs!In!the!Shell!In!2015 8 7 Trade Export!of!Egg!Products!In!2015 9 7 Trade Total!Eggs!Exported!O!2015 10 7 Trade All!Eggs!Produced,!Including!Hatching!Eggs,!by!Region!O!2015 11 9 Regional All!Layers!by!Region,!Including!Breeders!O!2015 12 10 Regional Table!Egg!Layers!In!Flocks!30,000!and!Above!by!Region!O!2015 13 10 Regional Total!Molt!by!Region!(Simple!Average!of!Reporting!States,!%)!O!2015 14 10 Regional Table!Egg!Layers!In!Flocks!30,000!and!Above!In!Leading!States!(Average)!O!2015 15 11 Regional Projected!U.S.!EggOType!Hatchery!Supply!Flock!O!2015 16 12 Projections U.S.!Pullets!to!be!Housed!Based!Upon!Hatch!5!Month!Ago! 17 12 Projections Projected!U.S.!Table!Egg!Flock!Less!Than!72!Weeks!of!Age 18 13 Projections First!of!the!Month!Projection!Estimates!of!U.S.!Table!Egg!Layers!(millions) 19 14 Projections Projected!vs.!Actual!First!of!the!Month!(U.S.!Flock!Size)!O!2015 20 14 Projections 2015!Bird!Flow!by!Month 21 15 Projected!Flock 2015!United!States!Flock!Size!Projections 22 16 Previous!Projections Summary!to!Date 23 19 Final EggOType!Hatch!Straight!Run!by!Month!(1,000)! Figure&Name Figure&# Page Sheet&or&Section 1 3 U.S.!Volume Table!Egg!Layers!by!Month!(Millions)! 2 4 U.S.!Volume Rate!of!Lay!(Percent) 3 4 U.S.!Volume Shell!Eggs!Broken!for!Further!Processing!by!Month!(Million!cases)! 4 5 U.S.!Volume Shell!Eggs!Broken!by!Month!(Percent!of!Total!Table!Eggs) 5 5 U.S.!Volume Monthly!Percent!Molted 6 6 U.S.!Volume Slaughter!of!Light!Fowl!by!Month!(Millions)! 7 6 U.S.!Volume U.S.!Egg!Exports!by!Month!O!2014!and!2015 8 8 Trade U.S.!Exported!Eggs!by!Month!O!2014!and!2015 9 8 Trade Leading!States'!Table!Egg!Layers!In!Flocks!of!30,000!and!Above!(1988O2014) 10 11 Regional Percent!of!U.S.!Flock!More!Than!72!Weeks!of!Age!by!Month 11 13 Projections U.S.!Monthly!TableOEgg!Layers!(2002O2015) 12 17 Trends U.S.!Table!Eggs!per!Hen!per!Day!by!Month!(2002O2015) 13 17 Trends Monthly!Percent!of!U.S.!Flock!Molted!(2002O2015) 14 17 Trends U.S.!Per!Capita!Egg!Consumption!by!Year!(1913O2015) 15 18 Trends Page 2 of 19, index
_ EGG TYPE: EGGS IN INCUBATORS (on the 1st of the month) and STRAIGHT RUN HATCH (U.S.) TABLE 1 EGG-TYPE Eggs in Incubators (thousands) EGG-TYPE Straight Run Hatch (thousands) month 2014 2015 Change (%) month 2014 2015 Change % Jan 41,220 42,237 2.5 Jan 44,458 44,174-0.6 Feb 41,857 40,464-3.3 Feb 40,986 43,091 5.1 Mar 39,409 46,064 16.9 Mar 44,233 50,077 1 Apr 43,197 49,281 14.1 Apr 45,703 49,595 8.5 May 47,407 47,700 0.6 May 49,146 47,652-3.0 Jun 42,738 47,478 11.1 Jun 44,006 Jul 41,041 Jul 42,297 Aug 39,782 Aug 39,803 Sep 41,734 Sep 43,722 Oct 43,275 Oct 44,468 Nov 38,051 Nov 36,544 Dec 42,006 Dec 42,980 6 Month Avg. 42,638 45,537 7.0 5 Month Avg. 44,905 46,918 4.6 6 Month Total 255,828 273,224 5 Month Total 224,526 234,589 12 Month Total 501,717 12 Month Total 518,346 55,000& Figure&1:&EggIType&Hatch&Straight&Run&by&Month&(1,000)&& 50,000& 45,000& 40,000& 35,000& 30,000& 2014&& 2015&& Jan& Feb& Mar& Apr& May& Jun& Jul& Aug& Sep& Oct& Nov& Dec& avg& AVERAGE U.S. LAYERS AND TABLE EGG LAYERS 2014/2015 (MILLIONS) _ TABLE 2 All Layers Table Egg Layers month 2014 2015 Change (%) 2013 2014 2015 Change (%) Jan 359.6 363.7 1.2 298.7 303.4 306.5 1.0 Feb 359.0 362.3 0.9 299.7 302.7 304.7 0.7 Mar 360.0 362.5 0.7 300.4 303.7 304.1 0.1 Apr 360.8 358.4-0.7 298.1 304.3 300.0-1.4 May 360.4 341.9-5.1 296.6 303.6 283.3-6.7 Jun 359.7 296.9 303.0 Jul 360.8 297.4 304.2 Aug 361.7 299.4 305.4 Sep 361.8 300.1 306.0 Oct 362.0 301.1 306.3 Nov 364.0 304.5 308.1 Dec 365.7 305.2 309.1 5 Month Avg. 359.9 357.8-0.6 298.7 303.5 299.7-1.3 Annual Avg. 361.3 299.8 305.0 Table egg layers as a % of all layers to date (2015): 83.8% Page 3 of 19, US Volume
U.S. ALL EGGS, TABLE EGGS AND RATE OF LAY (ALL STATES) _ TABLE 3 All Eggs (millions) Table Eggs - human consumption (millions) Rate of Lay (Table) month 2014 2015 Change (%) 2014 2015 Change (%) 2014 2015 Jan 8,397 8,540 1.7 7,321 7,428 1.5 77.8 78.2 Feb 7,551 7,620 0.9 6,579 6,615 0.5 77.6 77.5 Mar 8,430 8,548 1.4 7,354 7,429 1.0 78.1 78.7 Apr 8,205 8,209 0.0 7,160 7,113-0.7 78.4 79.0 May 8,428 7,997-5.1 7,336 6,856-6.5 77.9 78.1 Jun 8,151 7,091 78.0 Jul 8,503 7,404 78.5 Aug 8,491 7,394 78.1 Sep 8,186 7,126 77.6 Oct 8,526 7,433 78.3 Nov 8,411 7,353 79.5 Dec 8,731 7,633 79.6 5 Month Avg. 8,202 8,183-0.2 7,150 7,088-0.8 78.0 78.3 Annual Avg. 8,334 7,265 78.3 Total 100,010 40,914 87,184 35,441 Year 2014 Year 2015 % Change Total shell eggs through: May 35,750 million 35,441-0.9 Year 2014/15 - Table Eggs Proj. 2015 (monthly avg. x 12) Ann. total (eggs) 87.2 billion 86.4 (doz) 7.3 billion 7.2 (cases) 242.2 million 240.1 315& Figure&2:&Table&Egg&Layers&by&Month& (millions)&&& 80.0&& Figure&3:&Rate&of&Lay&(%)& 310& 79.5&& 305& 79.0&& 300& 295& 290& 285& 280& 275& 270& Jan& Feb& Mar& Apr& May& Jun& Jul& Aug& Sep& 2014&& 2015&& Oct& Nov& Dec& avg& 78.5&& 78.0&& 77.5&& 77.0&& 76.5&& 76.0&& 2014&& 2015&& Jan& Feb& Mar& Apr& May& Jun& Jul& Aug& Sep& Oct& Nov& Dec& avg& Page 4 of 19, US Volume
SHELL EGGS BROKEN UNDER FEDERAL INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) _ TABLE 4 month 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 15/14 (%) Change Jan 5.732 5.268 5.668 5.666 5.765 5.865 6.634 13.1 Feb 5.058 5.013 5.163 5.524 5.374 5.325 5.746 7.9 Mar 5.423 5.504 6.008 5.715 5.831 6.086 6.030-0.9 Apr 5.900 5.714 5.464 5.634 5.950 6.205 6.061-2.3 May 5.933 5.727 5.838 6.057 5.820 6.514 5.533-15.1 Jun 5.612 6.206 6.167 5.955 6.118 6.532 Jul 6.098 5.977 5.988 5.748 6.266 6.618 Aug 5.681 5.884 6.061 6.523 6.200 6.596 Sep 5.974 6.582 5.869 6.005 6.040 6.566 Oct 6.105 5.842 5.805 6.109 6.289 6.731 Nov 5.320 5.445 5.786 5.577 5.738 6.086 Dec 5.424 5.891 5.615 5.964 5.745 6.281 5 Month Avg. 5.609 5.445 5.628 5.719 5.748 5.999 6.001 0.5 5 Month Total 28.046 27.227 28.141 28.595 28.740 29.996 30.003 12 Month Total 68.260 69.054 69.431 70.477 71.136 75.405 Source: USDA NASS Egg products - monthly Million Cases Produced 219.144 221.728 228.286 235.956 242.178 98.447 % BROKEN 31.5 31.3 30.9 30.1 31.1 30.5 7.0& Figure&&4:&Shell&Eggs&Broken&for&Further& Processing&by&Month&(million&cases)&& 34& Figure!!5:!Shell!Eggs!Broken!by!Month!! (%&of&total&table&eggs)&&& 6.5& 32& 6.0& 5.5& 5.0& 4.5& 4.0& Jan& Feb& Mar& Apr& May& Jun& 2014&& 2015&& Jul& Aug& Sep& Oct& Nov& Dec& avg& 30& 28& 26& 24& 22& 20& Jan& Feb& Mar& Apr& May& Jun& 2014& 2015& Jul& Aug& Sep& Oct& Nov& Dec& PER CAPITA EGG CONSUMPTION BY QUARTER _ TABLE 5 QUARTER 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 1 61.8 62.0 61.8 61.3 63.3 64.4 64.7 64.4 2 61.3 61.5 61.9 61.5 62.3 63.5 65.4 62.1 3 62.0 61.4 62.5 62.8 63.3 64.8 66.3 59.7 4 63.8 62.9 63.1 64.3 65.6 66.1 66.8 62.6 Total 248.9 247.7 249.3 250.0 254.5 258.7 263.3 248.9 Change from previous year (eggs) -1.2 1.6 0.7 4.5 4.2 4.6-14.4 Source: USDA ERS Livestock and Meat Trade Data. * Estimates for 2015 (5/2015) Page 5 of 19, US Volume
INDUCED MOLT PERCENT - U.S. TOTALS (1ST OF MONTH) _ TABLE 6 In a Molt Completed a Molt Total month 2014 2015 Change 2014 2015 2014 2015 Change Jan 2.7 2.1-0.6 18.2 18.1 20.9 20.2-0.7 Feb 2.8 3.3 0.5 18.0 17.9 20.8 21.2 0.4 Mar 2.4 1.9-0.5 18.0 18.9 20.4 20.8 0.4 Apr 1.9 2.0 0.1 17.9 18.0 19.8 20.0 0.2 May 2.8 3.1 0.3 17.7 17.7 20.5 20.8 0.3 Jun 3.0 2.2-0.8 17.2 17.5 20.2 19.7-0.5 Jul 2.6 18.0 20.6 Aug 3.3 18.0 21.3 Sep 2.9 18.9 21.8 Oct 3.3 19.3 22.6 Nov 2.0 19.9 21.9 Dec 1.3 19.3 20.6 6 Month Avg. 2.6 2.4-0.2 17.8 18.0 20.4 20.5 0.0 12 Month Avg. 2.6 18.4 21.0 23& 22.5& 22& 21.5& 21& 20.5& 20& 19.5& 19& Figure&6:&Monthly&Percent&Molted&& 2014&& 2015&& Jan& Feb& Mar& Apr& May& Jun& Jul& Aug& Sep& Oct& Nov& Dec& avg& 7.5& 7.0& 6.5& 6.0& 5.5& 5.0& 4.5& 4.0& 3.5& 3.0& Jan& Figure&7:&Slaughter&Of&Light&Fowl&by& Month&(millions)&&& Feb& Mar& Apr& 2014& 2015& May& Jun& Jul& Aug& Sep& Oct& Nov& Dec& avg& SLAUGHTER OF LIGHT FOWL (MILLIONS) _ TABLE 7 6 YR (09-14) month 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Month Avg. Jan 6.33 5.80 5.90 6.98 7.63 7.01 6.33 6.61 Feb 5.36 5.22 5.59 5.57 6.20 5.86 5.68 5.63 Mar 6.32 6.50 6.56 7.15 6.49 6.15 5.96 6.53 Apr 6.58 6.59 5.99 7.95 8.31 6.63 5.99 7.01 May 6.32 5.78 6.42 7.91 7.21 7.06 4.92 6.78 Jun 6.36 5.88 5.30 6.25 5.40 6.07 5.88 Jul 5.94 5.42 5.00 4.45 5.60 5.32 5.29 Aug 5.46 5.64 5.85 6.00 6.81 6.13 5.98 Sep 5.20 6.12 5.68 5.39 5.50 5.80 5.61 Oct 5.85 5.01 5.56 5.60 5.73 5.57 5.55 Nov 4.44 4.07 4.92 5.12 3.59 3.75 4.31 Dec 5.53 5.63 5.60 6.89 6.45 6.47 6.09 5 Month Avg. 6.18 5.98 6.09 7.11 7.17 6.54 5.78 6.51 5 Month Total 30.90 29.89 30.46 35.55 35.85 32.70 28.88 32.56 12 Month Total 69.68 67.66 68.37 75.25 74.92 71.80 71.28 Source USDA NASS Poultry Slaughter Page 6 of 19, US Volume
EXPORT OF TABLE EGGS IN THE SHELL IN 2015 (Thousand cases- 30 doz) _ TABLE 8 Month \ To North America Central America Caribbean European Union-28 East Asia Southeast Asia Middle East Total 2015 Total 2014 % of U.S. Production Jan 300.6 0.0 17.8 9.1 126.0 0.3 8.8 468.2 29 2.27 Feb 356.7 0.0 22.5 6.4 92.7 0.0 6.8 491.3 361.9 2.67 Mar 401.9 0.0 9.6 4.9 97.4 0.0 7.2 525.8 351.7 2.55 Apr 426.1 0.0 10.4 1.8 92.4 0.0 3.8 540.0 414.0 2.73 May 258.8 0.0 6.2 0.1 80.4 0.0 2.3 352.5 546.2 1.85 Jun 418.7 Jul 584.5 Aug 543.5 Sep 452.4 Oct 612.3 Nov 616.7 Dec 974.5 5 Mo. Total 1,744.0 0.0 66.5 22.3 489.0 0.3 28.9 2,377.8 1,967.0 2.41 % 73.3 0.0 2.8 0.9 20.6 0.0 1.2 Source: USDA Foreign Agric. Service from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Stats EXPORT OF EGG PRODUCTS IN 2015 (EQUIVALENT: thousand cases- 30 doz) _ TABLE 9 Month \ To North America Central America Caribbean European Union-28 East Asia Southeast Asia Middle East Total 2015 Total 2014 % of U.S. Production Jan 208.0 8.8 6.5 118.0 132.6 14.0 8.3 517.3 516.4 2.51 Feb 194.9 8.0 5.5 58.0 114.9 11.9 2.9 436.1 518.2 2.37 Mar 184.4 27.0 10.2 96.4 110.9 13.3 13.4 463.9 504.8 2.25 Apr 209.6 9.4 6.1 36.1 124.2 5.1 3.8 402.1 488.7 2.04 May 153.5 2.4 5.3 43.6 119.6 24.9 9.6 385.0 428.7 2.02 Jun 519.6 Jul 396.5 Aug 472.9 Sep 514.7 Oct 516.4 Nov 425.4 Dec 582.5 5 Mo. Total 950.4 55.6 33.6 352.2 602.2 69.1 38.0 2,204.4 2,456.8 2.24 % 43.1 2.5 1.5 16.0 27.3 3.1 1.7 Converted from metric tonnes at a rate of one metric tonne equals approximately 52.4 thirty dozen cases. Source: USDA Economic Research Service from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Stats. TOTAL EGGS EXPORTED - 2015 Table Eggs Produced (000) Cases _ TABLE 10 Table Eggs Exported Egg Products Exported Total Exported Cases % of U.S. Cases % of U.S. Cases % of U.S. Jan 20,633 468.2 2.27 517.3 2.51 985.4 4.78 Feb 18,375 491.3 2.67 436.1 2.37 927.4 5.05 Mar 20,636 525.8 2.55 463.9 2.25 989.7 4.80 Apr 19,758 540.0 2.73 402.1 2.04 942.1 4.77 May 19,044 352.5 1.85 385.0 2.02 737.5 3.87 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total/Av 98,447 2,377.8 2.42 2,204.4 2.24 4,582.1 4.65 Page 7 of 19, Trade
1200 Figure 8: U.S. Egg Exports by Month - 2014 and 2015 1000 Thousand Cases 800 600 400 200 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Shell eggs '14 29 361.9 351.7 414.0 546.2 418.7 584.5 543.5 452.4 612.3 616.7 974.5 Shell eggs '15 468.2 491.3 525.8 540.0 352.5 Egg products '14 516.4 518.2 504.8 488.7 428.7 519.6 396.5 472.9 514.7 516.4 425.4 582.5 Egg Products '15 517.3 436.1 463.9 402.1 385.0 Note: Information has been converted from metric tonnes at a rate of 42 lbs. per case of liquid egg (edible + inedibles). 8.0 7.0 6.0 Figure 9: Exported Eggs by Month - 2014 and 2015 (percentage!of!eggs!produced)! 5.0 Percentage 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 2015 Month Page 8 of 19, Trade
_ ALL EGGS PRODUCED, INCLUDING HATCHING EGGS, BY REGION (Million) - 2015 TABLE 11 month Northeast* Southeast South Central Midwest Northwest California U.S. Total Jan 1,002 1,395 1,006 3,969 162 313 8,540 Feb 894 1,253 897 3,535 189 287 7,620 Mar 1,002 1,410 1,022 3,959 182 320 8,548 Apr 827 1,348 998 3,776 183 311 8,209 May 838 1,382 1,012 3,469 174 323 7,997 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5 Month Avg. 913 1,358 987 3,742 178 311 8,183 % of total 11.2 16.6 12.1 45.7 2.2 3.8 Note: All States are not represented (see map below) * The drop in the Northeast region number is mostly explained by not having an April count for CT and ME. Map of U.S. Regions, as defined by Urner Barry, and the location of information used in this report Notes The x's mark the States where there is USDA data available on number of layers, egg production and percent molt. Northwest is the sum of OR and WA South Central is the sum of AR, UT, CO, MO and TX Northeast is the sum of CT, MD, ME, NY and PA Southeast is the sum of AL, FL, GA, MS, NC, SC and VA Midwest is the sum of IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, NE, OH, WI, SD, MT and WY California is the state of California only Page 9 of 19, Regional
_ ALL LAYERS BY REGION, INCLUDING BREEDERS (Million) - 2015 TABLE 12 month Northeast* Southeast South Central Midwest Northwest California U.S. Total Jan 39.9 64.7 45.1 164.5 9.7 13.4 363.7 Feb 39.5 64.6 44.7 164.2 9.6 13.3 362.3 Mar 39.2 65.2 45.0 164.0 9.6 1 362.5 Apr 32.9 64.9 45.4 160.4 9.4 1 358.4 May 32.8 64.5 45.0 144.7 9.2 13.3 341.9 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5 Month Avg. 36.9 64.8 45.1 159.6 9.5 13.3 357.8 % of total 10.3 18.1 12.6 44.6 2.7 3.7 * The drop in the Northeast region number is mostly explained by not having an April count for CT and ME. _ TABLE EGG LAYERS IN FLOCKS 30,000 AND ABOVE BY REGION (Million) - 2015 TABLE 13 month Northeast* Southeast South Central Midwest Northwest California U.S. Total Jan 37.1 32.8 29.3 159.3 9.4 12.9 298.3 Feb 36.7 32.6 28.9 159.1 9.3 12.8 296.8 Mar 36.5 32.9 29.1 158.8 9.3 12.7 296.5 Apr 30.4 32.2 29.4 155.2 9.1 12.7 292.0 May 30.3 31.5 29.0 139.6 8.9 12.8 275.2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5 Month Avg. 34.2 32.4 29.1 154.4 9.2 12.8 291.8 % of total 11.7 11.1 10.0 52.9 4.4 Table/total layers (%) 92.8% 50.0% 64.7% 96.8% 96.8% 96.3% 81.5% * The drop in the Northeast region number is mostly explained by not having an April count for CT and ME. _ TOTAL MOLT (in-molt plus post-molt) BY REGION (Simple average of reporting States, %) - 2015 TABLE 14 month Northeast* Southeast South Central Midwest Northwest California 5 regions Jan 3.0 19.0 21.5 18.9 24.5 34.5 20.2 Feb 4.0 21.6 23.5 18.9 21.3 33.0 20.4 Mar 3.5 19.9 22.0 18.8 23.3 35.0 20.4 Apr 4.4 18.1 20.6 18.1 24.3 33.0 19.7 May 1.1 19.1 20.1 21.2 24.5 36.0 20.3 Jun 2.8 18.4 20.4 20.2 24.3 33.5 19.9 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6 Month Avg. 3.1 19.4 21.4 19.3 23.7 34.2 20.2 year 2013 avg. 6.5 17.0 20.7 20.0 30.7 30.7 19.0 Notes: average molt is estimated as the simple average of the reported States * The change in the Northeast region is in part explained by not having an April count for CT and ME. Page 10 of 19, Regional
_ TABLE EGG LAYERS IN LEADING STATES - (LAYERS IN 30,000+ HEN FLOCKS) - 2015 TABLE 15 month IA OH IN PA CA TX U.S. May-2014 58.19 30.20 26.45 23.10 15.79 14.80 295.60 (Millions) Jan-2015 58.49 29.69 25.89 23.99 12.88 14.89 298.32 Feb-2015 58.33 29.94 25.74 23.66 12.84 14.76 296.76 Mar-2015 58.23 30.28 25.42 23.62 12.72 14.79 296.51 Apr-2015 54.88 30.83 25.20 23.56 12.73 14.85 291.96 May-2015 43.01 30.82 25.56 23.40 12.77 14.93 275.21 Jun-2015 Jul-2015 Aug-2015 Sep-2015 Oct-2015 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 5 Month Avg. 54.59 30.31 25.56 23.64 12.79 14.84 291.75 % of all U.S. table egg layers 97.3 60& Figure&10:&Leading&States'&Table&Egg&Layers&in&Flocks&of&30,000&and&Above&(1988I2014)& IA& 50& 40& CA& OH& Millions& 30& 20& 10& 0& Year& IN& PA& CA& IA& OH& Source:!USDA!NASS!Chickens!and!Eggs! Page 11 of 19, Regional
_ PROJECTED U.S. EGG-TYPE HATCHERY SUPPLY FLOCK (Millions) TABLE 16 month 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan 2.664 2.730 3.087 2.706 2.791 2.436 2.608 Feb 2.768 2.716 3.123 2.659 2.830 2.515 2.535 Mar 2.704 2.745 3.108 2.653 2.786 2.503 2.553 Apr 2.695 2.785 3.039 2.703 2.786 2.468 2.610 May 2.727 2.828 2.998 2.672 2.649 2.555 2.619 Jun 2.664 2.910 2.996 2.657 2.745 2.476 2.664 Jul 2.720 2.999 2.883 2.672 2.579 2.540 2.682 Aug 2.721 3.010 2.848 2.731 2.613 2.536 2.689 Sep 2.620 3.019 2.877 2.732 2.630 2.472 2.605 Oct 2.701 3.023 2.779 2.819 2.588 2.530 2.718 Nov 2.734 2.998 2.755 2.778 2.515 2.497 2.917 Dec 2.692 3.099 2.713 2.791 2.537 2.439 11 month avg. 2.702 2.888 2.954 2.707 2.683 2.503 2.655 12 month avg. 2.701 2.905 2.934 2.714 2.671 2.497 Note: The hatchery supply flock estimates are made by using 7 to 18 months prior hatch minus 9% mortality PULLETS TO BE HOUSED BASED UPON U.S. HATCH 5 MONTH AGO (Millions) TABLE 17 (47.5% of CHICKS PLACED multiplied by a 95% LIVABILITY FACTOR) _ 2010 to '14 month 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 month avg. Jan 16.8 16.7 18.7 17.0 17.3 18.0 17.3 Feb 18.1 18.1 18.0 17.0 18.8 19.7 18.0 Mar 16.9 18.6 17.0 16.5 19.1 20.1 17.6 Apr 15.8 17.5 16.9 16.5 18.8 16.5 17.1 May 17.8 17.0 17.6 16.7 18.6 18.4 17.6 Jun 17.5 18.3 18.0 19.6 20.1 18.9 18.7 Jul 17.7 16.9 17.9 18.9 18.5 18.4 18.0 Aug 20.3 19.7 19.2 19.7 20.0 21.6 19.8 Sep 21.5 19.4 18.5 20.5 20.6 21.4 20.1 Oct 19.5 19.4 20.1 22.3 22.2 20.5 20.7 Nov 19.1 17.6 17.5 18.8 19.9 18.6 Dec 17.2 16.7 16.1 17.7 19.1 17.3 10 month avg. 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.5 19.4 19.4 18.5 Annual Avg. 18.2 18.0 18.0 18.4 19.4 18.4 Total 218.0 215.9 215.6 221.1 232.9 220.7 C % Change to date -0.21 Note: The number of pullets to be housed was reduced by 5 million based on the number reported as lost to avian influenza. We assumed the reduction as evenly spread during the period between May and September 2015 (assuming that the ages of affected birds was evenly distributed). Page 12 of 19, Projections
_ PROJECTED U.S. TABLE EGG FLOCK LESS THAN 72 WEEKS OF AGE (Millions) TABLE 18 Number % of National Flock over 72 wks. month 2012 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Jan 219.7 217.0 22 235.5 27.3 26.4 2 Feb 219.6 216.0 225.0 236.4 27.9 25.7 22.4 Mar 217.9 215.5 227.7 237.4 28.3 25.0 21.9 Apr 217.3 215.0 230.1 235.0 27.9 24.4 21.7 May 217.9 214.1 232.0 * 27.8 23.6 Jun 217.6 215.8 232.4 * 27.3 23.3 Jul 218.6 216.7 232.0 * 27.1 23.7 Aug 218.1 217.2 232.3 * 27.5 23.9 Sep 217.2 219.2 232.4 * 27.0 24.0 Oct 218.0 221.4 232.3 * 26.5 24.2 Nov 218.0 222.7 233.4 26.9 24.3 Dec 217.4 224.3 234.8 26.5 24.0 10 month avg. 218.2 216.8 229.9 237.3 5 month avg. 27.8 25.0 21.2 12 month avg. 218.1 217.9 230.6 27.3 24.4 Source: Egg Industry Center based on USDA NASS Chickens and Eggs data Note: The number of layers younger than 72 weeks of age are estimated as the sum of the Egg-Type Chicks Hatched between 5 and 17 months before adjusted by a 9% loss * Special note: A special adjustment to this calculation will be needed as a result of the avian influenza outbreak, but it will depend on some assumptions about the ages of the layers affected. 27 26 25 Figure 11: Percent U.S. Flock More than 72 Weeks of Age by Month 2014 2015 24 23 22 21 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec avg Page 13 of 19, Projections
FLOCK SIZE PROJECTION The U.S. flock size is projected for the current year and the following year for each month. Projections start with the first of the month official USDA count and are then adjusted monthly. Adjustments are made considering the most recent: 1. Hatch data (projected 5-months into the future with mortality). Subsequent hatches are based upon 6-year percentage trends for each month. USDA slaughter data and estimates based upon 6-year trends for subsequent months. 2. 3. Missing estimates are included for on-farm slaughter, died, exports, etc. This data is expressed as a percentage of each month's beginning count based upon recent history. TABLE 19 _ First of the Month Projection Estimates of U.S. Table Egg Layers (millions) Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 308.2 304.6 305.1 304.1 296.0 270.6 270.7 273.0 277.5 280.5 284.9 289.7 Project. Year end: Dec, 2015-290.6 The avian influenza outbreak created a large reduction on the U.S. flock; therefore, we expect our flock projections to be a lot less accurate than normal until the situation stabilizes. To be able to approximate a projection we assumed that: - the age of the 6 million pullets lost to AI were evenly distributed - the percent of the flock culled (slaughter, died or missing) by month stays the same - producers find a place where to house the pullets grown (based on the 5 month before hatch) - the pullets added in November and December to be similar to the number projected before the AI outbreak TABLE 20 _ U.S. FLOCK SIZE PROJECTED VS. ACTUAL (1st OF THE MONTH) - 2015 (Millions) Projected on Jan. 27, 2015 (EIC). Not changed during the year. Month Beginning count Replacements Slaughter Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual Jan 304.8 308.2 17.8 18.0 6.7 6.3 Feb 303.0 304.6 19.5 19.7 5.7 5.7 Mar 304.1 305.1 20.0 20.1 6.7 6.0 Apr 306.1 304.1 16.5 16.5 7.0 6.0 May 302.2 296.0 19.4 18.2 6.9 4.9 Jun 302.3 270.6 19.4 18.7 6.4 Jul 301.8 18.6 18.2 5.6 Aug 302.3 20.7 21.4 6.2 Sep 304.2 20.7 21.2 5.8 Oct 304.9 21.1 21.5 5.8 Nov 307.3 19.8 4.8 Dec 310.6 18.2 6.3 Current avg 303.8 298.1 19.4 19.4 6.6 5.8 1. Note: Projections are based upon USDA data and are updated monthly. 2. Please note: The above projections are updated monthly. The current projections are shown in Table 19. 3. Projected = Egg Industry Center 4. Actual = Chickens and Eggs Report - USDA NASS 5. USDA replacements are projected ahead from previous hatch statistics with mortality and placement adjustments. 6. Mortality and missing birds are not shown in the above table. NOTE: the projections in table 20 were made before the USDA Chickens and Eggs Report adjustment. Page 14 of 19, Projections
Page 15 of 19, Projections
Millions U.S. Flock Trends and Projections Report - mailed July 2015 Figure 12: U.S. Monthly Table- Egg Layers (2002-2015) 310 305 300 295 290 285 280 275 270 265 2002-2014 2015 260 Jan- 02 Jan- 03 Jan- 04 Jan- 05 Jan- 06 Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12 Jan- 13 Jan- 14 Jan- 15 Month Eggs/100 Hens/Day Figure 13: U.S. Table Eggs per Hundred Hens per Day by Month (2002-2015) 81 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 2002-2014 2015 70 Jan- 02 Jan- 03 Jan- 04 Jan- 05 Jan- 06 Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12 Jan- 13 Jan- 14 Jan- 15 Month Page 17 of 19, Trends
Percent 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 2002-2014 2015 U.S. Flock Trends and Projections Report - mailed July 2015 Figure 14: Monthly Percent of U.S. Flock Molted (2002-2015) 15 Jan- 02 Jan- 03 Jan- 04 Jan- 05 Jan- 06 Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12 Jan- 13 Jan- 14 Jan- 15 Month 450.0 Figure 15: U.S. Per Capita Egg ConsumpRon by Year (1913-2015) 400.0 Eggs 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: USDA ERS Page 18 of 19, Trends
SUMMARY TO DATE U.S. Flock Trends and Projections Report - mailed July 2015 _ Table 23 % 2014 2015 Change HATCH of EGG-TYPE STRAIGHT RUN (THOUSANDS) (U.S.) (Total) Jan to May 224,526 234,589 4.5 TABLE-EGG LAYERS (MILLIONS) (U.S.) (Avg.) Jan to May 303.5 299.7-1.3 TABLE EGGS (MILLIONS/MONTH) (U.S.) (Avg.) Jan to May 7,150 7,088-0.9 RATE OF LAY (%) (Avg.) Jan to May 78.0 78.3 0.3 U.S. TABLE EGG AVG. CASES/WEEK (THOUSANDS) Jan to May 1,657 1,643-0.9 AVG MONTHLY CASES OF EGGS BROKEN (MILLION) (U.S.) Jan to May 5.999 6.001 0.0 2013 2014 Difference PERCENT OF U.S. FLOCK IN or POST MOLT (Avg.) Jan to Jun 20.4 20.5 0.0 AVERAGE PULLETS ADDED/MONTH (MILLIONS) (U.S.) Jan to Oct 19.4 19.4 0.0 Note: U.S. layer numbers and egg prices are projected 12-months into the future in other reports published by the Egg Industry Center. Contact Maro Ibarburu at maro@iastate.edu to be placed on the mailing list to receive monthly copies of these reports. Webpages of some of the sources of information, Access these sites by clicking on the blue addresses below: University of California Poultry Page http://animalscience.ucdavis.edu/avian/ USDA NASS Chickens and Eggs http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/mannusda/viewdocumentinfo.do?documentid=1028 USDA NASS Poultry Slaughter http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/mannusda/viewdocumentinfo.do?documentid=1131 USDA NASS Egg Products http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/mannusda/viewdocumentinfo.do?documentid=1057 USDA ERS Livestock and Meat Trade Data. http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/meattrade/broilerturkeymonthly.htm USDA FAS http://www.fas.usda.gov/gats/expressquery1.aspx USDA NASS Cold Storage http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/mannusda/viewdocumentinfo.do?documentid=1034 USDA AMS Poultry Market News and Analysis http://marketnews.usda.gov/portal/py Maro Ibarburu, EIC Business Analyst Don - Iowa State University, Ames, IA Thank you for all your contributions to Phone (515) 294-8132 this industry. You will be forever missed. E-mail: maro@iastate.edu Your friends at EIC Page 19 of 19, Final