1 One World One Health: An Economic Perspective Beyond Zoonoses: The Threat of Emerging Diseases to Human Security and Conservation, and the Implications for Public Policy James Newcomb Bio Economic Research Associates (bio era) November 15, 2004 Bangkok, Thailand
Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Diseases 2 $50bn $40bn SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada $30-50bn Estimated Cost $30bn $20bn Foot & Mouth UK $25 30bn $10bn BSE UK, $10-13bn Foot & Mouth Taiwan, $5-8bn Classical Swine Fever, Netherlands $2.3bn HPAI, Italy $400m Nipah, Malaysia $350-400m BSE Japan $1.5bn BSE Canada $1.5bn Avian Flu, NL $500m Avian Flu Asia, $5 10bn BSE U.S., $3.5bn 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Figures are estimates and are presented as relative size.
Livestock Disease Economics 3
4 Livestock Disease Risks: Widening Concerns Recent animal disease outbreaks have affected one-third of global meat exports (UN/FAO) Economic impacts of major livestock disease outbreaks in the past 10 years exceed $80 billion Concerns about human health risks of emerging infectious diseases are increasing (SARS, avian flu, Nipah virus) Rapid growth of Asia s livestock industries poses new challenges Global trade and travel increase the interconnectedness of livestock producers worldwide Pathogen exchanges with wildlife populations could be significant Bioterrorism aimed at agricultural targets is possible
One World One Health: An Economic Perspective 5 1. Inevitable Collisions: Projected Increases in Livestock Populations Will Create New Ecosystem Stresses 2. Network Dynamics: Highly Interconnected Systems Are Vulnerable to Epidemics 3. Policy Responses Must Take the Long View
6 UN Population Projections (Bn) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: 2002 Revision 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 High variant Medium variant Low variant Actual
7 Meat Consumption and Income Trends Log of per capita Consumption of Meat (1971-1995 avg.) 5 4 3 2 China Philippines Trend 1 India 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Log of per capita GNP (1971-95 avg.)
8 World Meat Consumption: 1983-2020 200 180 Million Metric Tons 160 140 120 100 80 Developing world Developed world 60 40 1983 1993 2020 Source: IFPRI, Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution FAO Annual Data. Total meat consumption for 1983 and 1993 are three-year moving averages. 2020 projections come from IFPRI s global model, IMPACT
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 9 Projected Species Production Pork Poultry Beef and Veal Misc. Mutton and Lamb 1961 1964 1967 Million Metric Tons 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Source: Center for Global Food Issues
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Brazil Chicken Meat Production and Exports: 1964-2004 10 Production Exports 2004 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 1970 1972 1968 Million Metric Tons *RTC 1964 1966 Source: FAOSTAT
11 China Chicken Meat Production and Imports: 1987-2004 12 Million Metric Tons *RTC 10 8 6 4 2 Imports Production 0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Source: FAOSTAT
1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 12 Thailand Chicken Meat Production and Exports: 1964-2004 Production Exports 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1979 1977 Million Metric Tons *RTC 1975 Source: FAOSTAT
13 The Global Meat Trade is Highly Concentrated Source: Center for Global Food Issues
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 14 Percent of Global Meat Production Exported 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Source: Center for Global Food Issues
Network Theory Offers Important New Tools for Analyzing and Managing Disease Risks 15 Network models (scale-free, small world, urban, etc.) give fundamental new insights into epidemiology Scale-free networks are especially vulnerable, but can be made more robust by focusing control measures at hubs Network theory has significant practical applications in understanding and managing livestock diseases through application of contact tracking to identify hubs
Poisson distribution Power-law distribution 16 Exponential Network Scale-free Network
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Emerging Infectious Diseases: What Are the Linkages Among Wildlife, Domestic Animals and Humans? 18 Fundamental forces are driving new infection disease threats for livestock Avian influenza poses especially large potential risks Emerging diseases are causing significant economic disruptions Source: Daszak, Cunningham, and Hyatt, Science, January 2000
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Control and Mitigation Methods Are Evolving Quickly 22 Mass culling has been effective, but at very high cost Trade embargoes are crude tools to control disease New monitoring and detection systems are being put in place Vaccination is now being used, but evolutionary implications are unknown Rapid testing technologies have been developed Changes in livestock practices are being explored
Institutional Responses to Avian Flu: Recommendations of OIE/CDC/WHO Surveillance and separation systems to limit contact between wild birds and poultry Strategies to ensure the purity of drinking water supplies for poultry Tight control measures over livestock movement in affected areas Bird-proofing of poultry sheds to prevent contact between wild birds, especially migrating waterfowl, and poultry Protection for workers during culling operations including protective clothing and vaccinations Financial support for losses incurred by farmers culling their flocks Endorsement of vaccination strategies as complement to culling 23
Sustainable Long-Term Solutions May Require Innovative Science and Policy 24 Breed livestock for disease resistance Produce animal vaccines in feed grains Implement advanced monitoring and detection systems for livestock Develop global wildlife health surveillance network
25 One World One Health