PAPER TITLE: DETERMINING THE OPPORTUNITY OF NEW RAILWAY STATIONS

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1 PAPER TITLE: DETERMINING THE OPPORTUNITY OF NEW RAILWAY STATIONS Gwennan DAVID and Nawfal TALBI, Forecastng Experts, SNCF Voyages Major Projects Plannng Dvson, Pars - France Challenge: E, Brngng the terrtores closer together at hgher speeds. Topc: Statons Key words : 1) Staton accessblty 2) Staton catchment area 3) Traffc forecastng. 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Reason for the research The creaton of a ralway staton and the choce of ts most sutable locaton rather than to serve the exstng staton n the cty center s an ssue for HSR projects. SNCF Voyages has developed a method to assess the economc and commercal relevance of any new statons on a new Hgh Speed Lne (HSL). Ths method enable s to compare varous stes, n terms of beneft for passengers and economc nterest for the carrer company Lnk wth the chosen challenge The selected staton reduces the total journey tme of the passengers (sum of travel tme by ral and access tme to staton) and maxmzes the passenger traffc (volume and revenue optmzaton). 2. CONTEXT IN FRANCE 2.1. New statons on hgh-speed lnes n France Over the last thrty years, a number of hghspeed lnes (HSL) have been constructed on the French ral network for hgh-speed trans (TGV), whch are able to run not only on these dedcated lnes but also on the hstorcal network that they share wth conventonal ral servces. Thus, more than 200 statons are served by TGV trans n France and 16 of these have been bult on HSL snce The adjonng map shows where the new dedcated TGV statons have beng mplemented and the dates on whch they were opened to commercal servce. Fgure 1 Statons on HSL n , January 1/8

2 2.2. French ralway regulatons Substantal changes have been ntroduced n the French ralway regulaton due to European Unon regulaton. In 1997, the roles of nfrastructure manager and servce operator were separated n France. Moreover, the ral sector has partly been opened to competton As the natonal operator, SNCF s n charge of ral transport but has to pay track access charges to the nfrastructure manager, Réseau Ferré de France (RFF). Exstng statons reman n the property and stewardshp of SNCF, whereas the contractng authorty for the constructon of new statons s the nfrastructure manager SNCF's nterest n staton studes In a hghly compettve marketplace, the carrer's prorty s to offer ts customers servces that are fast, seamless and comfortable, easly accessble and fully equpped for ntermodal connectons, under acceptable economc condtons. It s therefore mportant for SNCF to have a clear dea of the economc and commercal relevance of each new staton n order to be able to desgn ts tran patterns n a projected stuaton. 3. METHODOLOGY The creaton of a new staton changes the terrtory accessblty to ral servces, the travel tme from and to the other ctes served by TGV, the competton between statons and the traffc volumes. There are four man stages n the study of a new staton ste: terrtory analyss, accessblty, defnton of preferental and commercal catchment areas, traffc forecasts. The methodology and the models used n ths process have been calbrated from the feedback obtaned from exstng cases such as the new statons on the Medterranean HSL. Two stuatons are consdered: - the reference stuaton, at the project horzon tme wthout the HSL and new statons. - the project stuaton, at the project horzon tme wth the HSL and new statons Model calbraton based on experence feedback : the example of Ax-en-Provence TGV staton on the Medterranean HSL Ax-en-Provence TGV staton opened to passengers n 2001 at the same tme as the Medterranean HSL. It s located 15 km South-East of Ax-en-Provence and 20 km North of Marselle. It s therefore accessble not only from Ax-en-Provence but also from Eastern dstrcts of Marselle, and from a whole ndustral area consstng of the Etang de Berre and places such as Vtrolles, Margnane, Martgues, etc. Fgure 2 Ste of Ax-en-Provence TGV staton Source of background map: IGN (French Natonal Geographc Insttute). 2011, January 2/8

3 3.2. Terrtory analyss The geographcal scope and the workng assumptons regardng the changes to be expected n the economc and compettve envronment must be determned beforehand, n assocaton wth all the other players nvolved. Determnaton of the geographcal scope ncludes the projected nfrastructure layout, ncludng ts new statons and ther locaton and also the exstng statons whch may compete for the traffc catchment. Workng assumptons bear on soco-economc characterstcs such as populaton and employment, road nfrastructures and man publc transport equpments and ral servces Accessblty to hgh speed ral servces The study of accessblty conssts n ascertanng what the access tmes by road and publc transport to exstng statons and to the new staton wll be at the project commssonng year. Populaton and number of jobs for whch access wll be possble wthn a gven tme are calculated. The tme requred to reach a staton from a gven resdental area (determned n advance by fnte segmentaton) s calculated by means of the followng formula: Access tme = Mn(α x tme PC + (1-α) ß x tme PT; tme PC) where: α s the proporton of passengers drvng to the staton (Prvate Car: PC), β a bonus appled to the approach tme usng Publc Transport (PT). Prvate Car access tme ncludes road congeston. The followng maps show terrtoral accessblty to ral servces before and after openng of the Medterranean HSL for the geographcal area of both Marselle and Ax-en-Provence. Fgure 3 Accessblty of Marselle Sant Charles staton only (reference stuaton) By creatng a second access to hgh-speed ral servces, the whole area benefts from a greater accessblty, partcularly for places between Marselle Sant-Charles and Ax-en-Provence TGV, and for those at the Northern end of Ax-en-Provence TGV staton. Fgure 4 Accessblty of both Marselle Sant Charles and Ax-en-Provence TGV statons (Project stuaton) The dfference n terrtoral access to hgh speed ral between the reference and project stuatons was subsequently taken nto account n traffc forecasts. 2011, January 3/8

4 3.4. Statons catchment areas When establshng the lmts of a catchment area for a gven orgn-destnaton trp, the results of the accessblty study and ral journey tmes are taken nto account. The so-called "preferental" catchment areas are based on the crteron of mnmsng the generalsed travel tme, whch ncludes the tme requred for the actual ral journey, the tme taken to reach the staton of departure and the arrval at the fnal destnaton, plus parkng tme (tme to fnd a space to leave the car). As exemplfed n Fgure 5, a gven resdental area s ncluded n the catchment area of staton 1, f t fulfls the followng two requrements: The tme requred to reach staton 1 s less than a gven tme (mostly 45 mnutes). The generalsed tme for staton 1 s less than that of alternatve statons. Fgure 5 Prncple appled to defne preferental catchment areas Area less than 45 mnutes from staton 1 Boundares of the catchment areas between staton 1 and staton 2 establshed on the bass of the generalsed tme mnmsaton prncple (for an dentcal frequency of servce) Area less than 45 mnutes from staton 2 Area less than 45 mnutes from staton 3 Boundares of the catchment areas between staton 2 and staton 3 establshed on the bass of the generalsed tme mnmsaton prncple (for an dentcal frequency of servce) The followng map shows the preferental catchment areas of Marselle Sant-Charles and Ax-en-Provence TGV n the project stuaton for trps n relaton wth Île-de- France (Greater Pars). For the catchment area of Ax-en-Provence TGV shown n blue, the generalsed tme va the staton of Ax-en-Provence TGV s less than the generalsed tme va the staton n Marselle for passengers gong to Pars. Fgure 6 Preferental catchment areas of Marselle Sant Charles and Ax-en- Provence TGV statons Ths means that, f the two statons were served by the same trans, Ax-en-Provence TGV staton would be systematcally used for journeys to and from places n the blue area. Marselle Sant-Charles staton would be used systematcally for those areas shown n green on the map. The concept of commercal catchment areas goes a bt further and s complementary to the prevous concept because t takes nto account the frequency of tran servces offered n each staton. In other terms f the Ax en Provence TGV Staton s served only by one TGV per day whereas there are 20 TGV per day n Marselle Sant Charles, many people lvng n the blue area would board the tran at Marselle Sant Charles. Ths extreme example helps understandng that the passenger s staton choce does not only rely on access tmes. A knd of Logt model s used to splt the traffc of a resdental area between competng statons. 2011, January 4/8

5 The model s as follows : Wth : part A, probablty of a resdental area to choose the exstng staton A, part N, probablty of a resdental area to choose the new staton N, f A, number of useful drect frequences of staton A for the resdental area, f N, number of useful drect frequences of staton N for the resdental area, tg, generalsed tme of resdental area for a gven OD va staton A, A tg, generalsed tme of resdental area for a gven OD va staton N, N part A tg fa tga A fn A tgn, part f N tg fn tgn A fn A tgn f Fgure 7 Commercal catchment areas of Marselle Sant Charles and Ax-en-Provence TGV statons The analyss of commercal catchment area s a prelmnary step of traffc forecastng Traffc forecastng The feedback ganed from experence not only relates to the splt of traffc between statons but also on the mpact of a new staton on the total traffc volume of the two statons (exstng and new ones). Three man factors nteract when openng a new staton and nfluence the traffc volume of the two statons, whch s referred to here as "end traffc result". The frst one s the change n accessblty condtons between the stuaton wthout the new staton and the stuaton wth the new staton, n other words terrtoral accessblty as shown n the frst maps and dagrams under 3.3. The second one s the change n overall ral servces offered between the reference and the project (wth HSL and new staton) stuatons, overall meanng the co-exstence of the new and exstng statons. The thrd one s the varaton n the servces offered n the exstng cty centre staton between the reference stuaton and the project stuaton wth the HSL. Ths last factor had a postve mpact on the Medterranean TGV for Marselle. The forecastng process ncludes three man steps: - determnaton of total ralway traffc volume - traffc dstrbuton between resdental areas - and traffc splt between statons. 2011, January 5/8

6 Fgure 8 Stage 1: total traffc forecasts Pars Fgure 9 Stage 2: traffc dstrbuton between resdental areas Pars Resdental area 1 Resdental area n Resdental area 2 Fgure 10 Stage 3: traffc dstrbuton between statons Pars Resdental area 1 Resdental area n Resdental area , January 6/8

7 Determnaton of the total passenger traffc takes nto account the evoluton of accessblty to ralway servces between the stuaton wthout and the stuaton wth the new staton, the change n supply related to the commssoned HSL project and the change n the consstency of servces n exstng statons. The traffc dstrbuton between resdental areas takes nto account the populaton, the jobs and the pertnence of ralway servces for the analysed OD as follows: p OD, f ( f ( populaton populaton, jobs, jobs ) pert ) pert Wth: p OD, : the traffc dstrbuton of the consdered OD n resdental area pert : the ralway servces pertnence for the resdental area The resdental area traffc splt between statons s based on the probablty to choose one of the statons n relaton to the number of frequences and the generalzed tmes lnked to the use of the dfferent statons. The calculated traffc dstrbuton between statons s very close to the observed traffc dstrbuton: there s only a 1.1% dfference wth the actual traffc spread between Marselle Sant-Charles and Axen-Provence TGV for passengers n relaton wth Pars. The traffc forecastng model s also very accurate snce ts predcton s only 0.5% dfferent from the actual traffc recorded for the Greater Pars - Marselle+Ax-en-Provence TGV orgn destnaton. Feedback from the Medterranean HSL has provded useful nput for fne-tunng the method used to ascertan the advsablty of new statons. 4. CONCLUSION The method set up by SNCF Voyages s based on geo-marketng and econometrcs to determne the relevance of the creaton of a staton on a new Hgh Speed Lne and to compare the vrtues of varous potental stes. Ths method s a full and consstent assessment process: all study steps are lnked and all aspects related to any new proposed staton are consdered. Methodology and models nvolved n the forecastng process are calbrated on feedbacks from exstng cases such as TGV Medterranean new statons. The relevance of ths process has been fully apprecated by the CGEDD, the French authorty n traffc expertse. A further step wll consst n assessng the balance of greenhouse gases emssons lnked to each new proposed staton. 2011, January 7/8

8 5. REFERENCES Clquet G. (1988), Les modèles gravtares et leur évoluton, Recherche et Applcatons en Marketng, 3, 3, Clquet G. (1993), Modèles d attracton : applcaton aux ponts de vente, Caher de recherche n 36, Centre de Recherche en Geston de Basse-Normande Hosmer D.W., Lemeshow S. (2000), Appled Logstc Regresson, Second Edton, Wley Lappara L. (1995), L mplantaton d hypermarché : comparason de deux méthodes d évaluaton du potentel, Recherche et Applcaton en Marketng, 10, 1, Maddala G.S (Aprl 1, 2009), Econometrcs, Cambrdge Unversty Press Nakache J.P., Confas J., (2003), Statstque Explcatve Applquée, Parte 2, "Modèle Logstque", pages , Technp 2011, January 8/8