Impact of Selected Fruits Production on Pakistani Exports

Transcription

1 Inernaional Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) Index Copernicus Value (2013): 6.14 Impac Facor (2015): Impac of Seleced Fruis Producion on Pakisani Expors Ashiq Hussain 1, Muhammad Ajmair 2 1 Direcor, Mian Muhammad Bukhash Public Library, Mirpur AJK, Pakisan 2 Assisan Professor, Mirpur Universiy of Science and Technology, Mirpur AJK, Pakisan Absrac: The purpose of his research is o analyze he impac of frui producion of seleced fruis; banana, cirus, mango, aprico and almond on he expor. Uni roo es, simple OLS mehods were applied on he ime series daa of Pakisan for he period of o analyze he impac of frui producion on expors. The resuls of OLS show ha here is posiive role of apple producion on expor. Farmers should be moivaed o produce apple o expor. Keywords: Frui producion, Expors, OLS, Uni roo es, Moivaion 1. Inroducion Pakisan is basically an agro-based economy in a way ha he bigges chunk of economic resources is generaed by agriculure secor. Agriculure secor does no only provide direc income o populaion bu i also suppors indusrial secor by providing raw maerial o i. Bu e al. (2010) described ha oal populaion of Pakisan reached o million in , majoriy of which depends upon agriculure which remains he dominan secor in is capaciy of labour absorpion and in employmen creaion for 44 % of populaion. Pakisan Minisry of Finance (2004) in is overview of Pakisan s Economy repored ha afer much diversificaion in agriculure secor, i sill remains he larges secor of economy which conribues 23.3% o GDP by engaging 42.1% of he labour force in he year Moreover i brings larges share of foreign exchange earnings by acing as a base for major indusries like exile and sugar. I no only provides raw maerial o indusrial secor bu also serve as a marke for is producs and is herefore involved in round-abou developmen of he counry. Baig and Khan (2006) repored he fac ha 67.5% of populaion living in rural areas is eiher direcly or indirecly dependen upon agriculure for economic gains. Agriculure also has numerous linkages wih oher non-farm rural aciviies which enable he populaion o generae employmen and earn income in adjoining areas. Pakisan has a rich and vas naural resource base, covering various ecological and climaic zones; hence he counry has grea poenial for producing all ypes of food commodiies. Agriculure has an imporan direc and indirec role in generaing economic growh. The imporance of agriculure o he economy is seen in hree ways: firs, i provides food o consumers and fibres for domesic indusry; second, i is a source of scarce foreign exchange earnings; and hird, i provides a marke for in dusrial goods. The oal geographical area of Pakisan is 79.6 million hecares. Abou 27 percen of he area is currenly under culivaion. Of his area, 80 percen is irrigaed. In his regard, Pakisan has one of he highes proporions of irrigaed cropped area in he world. The culivable wase lands offering good possibiliies of crop producion amoun o 8.9 million hecares. Growh in cropped area is very impressive: from 11.6 million hecares in 1947 o 22.6 million hecares in Agriculure is an imporan secor, providing food o he fas-growing populaion of he counry. According he 1998 census, he oal populaion of Pakisan is 130 million. Wih a populaion growh rae of 2.6 percen here is a ne addiion of 3.4 million people each year. In 1947 he populaion of Pakisan was 32.5 million; in 50 years i has increased fourfold Agriculure conribues abou 24 percen of he gross domesic produc (GDP) and employs 47 percen of he naional employed labour force. The conribuion of he agriculural secor o he GDP has declined gradually since Pakisan came ino exisence, from over 50 percen in o abou 24 percen in Agriculure sill remains he major secor of he GDP composiion. A major par of he economy depends on farming hrough producion, processing and disribuion of major agriculural commodiies. The average annual growh raes in he agriculural secor during he 1960s, 1970s and 1980s were 5.07, 2.37 and 5.4 percen, respecively. Wih he announcemen of a new agriculure package by he governmen in April 1997, he growh rae during 1997/98 has improved o 5.9 percen. Pakisan s frui expors wen up 33pc in dollar erms in he 5 monhs of he curren fiscal year as compared o las fiscal year. Figures released by he FBS revealed shipmen of 218,203 ones of fruis ($143.4m) in July-Nov as compared o 191,739 ones ($103m) in same period las fiscal year.. Boos in mango, expors played a posiive impac on overall growh in frui. Over 190,000 ones of mango were expored o Europe, Canada, Middle Eas, Far Eas, Japan and Souh Korea his season. Oher fruis included apple, cheeko. Waheed said ha overall expors of fruis can improve when he expor of kinnow and mango resume o Iran. Pakisan is facing a ban on hese iems by Iran for he las hree years. Pakisan used o ship 25,000-30,000 ones of mango o Iran, feching around $15m per year. Similarly, expor of around 80,000-90,000 ones of keno o Iran, feching $40m. Pakisan, hough a major cirus producer, is sill lagging behind in modern echniques when i comes o enhancing he value of cirus expors. Only 10% of oal producion is expored, due o which cirus producers face severe financial consrains as i enails selling he produce locally; a lower Paper ID: NOV hp://dx.doi.org/ /v5i6.nov

2 Inernaional Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) Index Copernicus Value (2013): 6.14 Impac Facor (2015): prices. The year winessed a generally good crop: producion of kinnows wen up o 2.4 million ons and he expor arge was fixed a 300,000 ons; bu he loss of Iran s lucraive marke and delays in consignmens due o sringen commodiy checks by cusoms auhoriies were major problems from he exporers view poin. Furhermore, Sri Lanka imposed a special commodiy levy on impors of frui and vegeables which annoyed local exporers a a ime when he cirus expor season was underway. Mango expors are an imporan source of valuable foreign earnings for Pakisan. Expors increased from 1.16 housand ons in o housand ons in The las five years winessed massive increase in he mango expors from Pakisan. An increase in mango expors from Pakisan is generally aribued o increased access o radiional markes hrough improved shipping faciliies, increasing number of Pakisani immigrans and policy of he governmen (PHDEB, 2005). Despie an increase in is expors, share of mango expors remains abou 6 percen of he oal mango producion which is lower han oher leading mango exporing counries like Mexico and Brazil conribuing 14 percen and 12 percen respecively. Expor of mango from Pakisan is highly concenraed in few markes. Major markes for Pakisani mango include Unied Arab Emiraes and Saudi Arabia where expariae Pakisanis and Indians, consiue major segmen of cusomers base. Increased shipping faciliies a cheaper raes, relaively flexible and less sringen food safey requiremens are some oher facors conribuing major share of expors o hese markes. For he year , 46 percen of mango was expored o UAE alone whereas Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwai, and Bahrain accouned for percen, percen, 1.55 percen and 1.22 percen respecively of he oal expors of mango from Pakisan. Almos 76 percen of Pakisani mango was expored o hree markes (UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman). Unied Kingdom is he bigges marke in Europe consiuing abou percen whereas France and Germany share abou 1.48 percen and 1.22 percen respecively of oal expors from Pakisan. Pakisan is he sixh larges exporer of mangoes in he world. In , Pakisan expored 61,632 ons of mangoes; while in , expor figure was 105,210 ons. Pakisan s compounded annual growh rae of mango expors during he period remained as 3.2%, which was much lower han he expor marke growh rae of 9.0% during he same ime period. This indicaes ha Pakisan has no been able o ap he growing poenial of fresh mango expor marke. Two main mango varieies expored from Pakisan are Sindhri and Chaunsa; Sindhri being he main variey of Sindh. Around 30 onnes of apples are being expored on a daily basis o neighbouring counries. The apples are no produced in he province, bu ranspored o Jalalabad from Kabul and cenral Maidan Wardak before being sen o Pakisan So far 1,300 onnes of apples worh $250,000 had been expored o he neighbouring counry, wih daily expors working ou a 30 onnes. 1.1 Objecives of he Sudy To see he share of seleced fruis producion in oal expors 2. Lieraure Review Alhough here exiss a lo of poenial in exporing fruis from Pakisan ye his crop has araced leas ineres of scholars as only few sudies are available which esimaed deerminans of fruis expor from Pakisan. However, in his secion, an effor is made o review relevan lieraure. Aujla, e al. (2007) invesigaed consrains hindering realizaion of rue poenial of Pakisan s frui producion and expors. The major share in reurns from expors came from Middle Easern and Far Easern counries due o relaively high quaniies expored o hese regions. The inabiliy o compee in he expensive markes of he world in horiculural producs was because of non-availabiliy of infrasrucures like hi-ech labs for issuing various cerificaes on healh and environmenal safey, noncoincidence of Pakisan s fruis wih he ases and preferences of high-price markes, expensive refrigeraed ranspor faciliy, cosly good qualiy packing maerial, oher inpus needed in processing and non-availabiliy of credi on easy erms and condiions. Haleem (2005) invesigaed expor supply response of mango in Pakisan during las hiry years ( ) using Johansen s coinegraion echnique. The esimaed expors price elasiciy for mango was 5.39 whereas domesic price elasiciy was and domesic producion elasiciy was The exchange rae elasiciy remained Haleem e al. (2005) examined facors affecing expor of cirus. These facors included domesic and expor prices, naional producion, foreign exchange rae ec. Time series daa for he period were used for analysis employing he co-inegraion and error correcion mechanism. The esimaed expor price elasiciy was 1.48 while domesic price elasiciy was Among non-price facors, he esimaed elasiciy for domesic producion of cirus, exchange rae and GDP were 1.37, 1.31 and 0.35 respecively. Hassan and Ibnouf (2005) idenified compeiive capaciy deerminans (relaive prices, relaive sabiliy of producion, and efficiency of expor pracices) for Egypian expors of some fruis in he Saudi Arabian marke using ime series daa for he period Muliple linear regression equaions were esimaed for finding ou relaionship beween dependen and explanaory variables. The resuls indicaed ha compeiive capaciy of Egypian expors for hese major fruis in he Saudi Arabian marke could be increased by expanding he producion of qualiy oranges and lemons, improving he efficiency of expor processes, and reducing he coss of mango producion while meeing produc specificaions and mainaining he relaive sabiliy of producion. Neef (2004) scanned behavior of expors of peers, apples and srawberries from Belgium by using ime series daa for a period The findings of he sudy found ha inernal facors like producion and per capia availabiliy played imporan role in explaining variaions in ne expors, while exernal facors like prices and foreign exchange raes appeared o be less imporan. Paper ID: NOV hp://dx.doi.org/ /v5i6.nov

3 Inernaional Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) Index Copernicus Value (2013): 6.14 Impac Facor (2015): Dr. Gayaneh, (2010) Fruis and vegeables have long been a nuriious and healhful par of he human die because hey are low in calories and fa, and are imporan sources of viamins, minerals, and fibre. In addiion, fruis are also high in phoneic compounds such as anhocyanins and flavanoids, which have been correlaed wih lower risks of chronic diseases. The challenge of he producer has always been o find ways o preserve food in a high qualiy sae unil i reaches he consumer. In Thane and Reddy (1997) poin of view, some fruis and vegeables require peeling before processing, such as peaches, omaoes and carros. This process may be achieved wih he use of ho waer, ho sodium hydroxide soluion or mechanical peelers. This process may remove some of he nuriens wih he porions ha are separaed from he peeled producs. Also, by exposing he flesh/phloem of he frui/vegeable o he amosphere, some caroene aciviy may be los hrough oxidaion. According o Thane and Reddy (1997), he amoun of aryenoids is also no affeced by freezing, paricularly rapid freezing. Deerioraive process occurs, alhough a a very low rae, during sorage. This is desirable, of course, because of he high value placed on aryenoids as nuriens. According o he Organizaional high-level inernaional review of research findings on frui and vegeable consumpion and cancer risk, coordinaed by he WHO Inernaional Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), concluded ha eaing frui and vegeables may lower he risk of some cancers, paricularly cancers of he gasroinesinal rac. IARC esimaes ha he prevenable percenage of cancer due o low frui and vegeable inake ranges from 5-12 % for all cancers, and up o 20-30% for upper gasroinesinal rac cancers worldwide. The imporance of frui and vegeable consumpion for a healhy die, and he need for he promoion of frui and vegeable producion and consumpion, were reieraed. Several Member Saes repored low frui and vegeable inake in heir populaion, wih some describing consumpion barriers such as high price. The counry represenaives from he Region of he Americas and he Souh-Eas Asia Region explicily idenified increasing frui and vegeable producion and consumpion as Bonilla, 2004A naional web survey was used o colleced daa from 253 households in he Unied Saes. Choice-based conjoin analysis was used o invesigae which packaging and labelling aribues U.S. consumers consider imporan when choosing 100% frui juices, and o esimae heir willingness-o-pay. The aribues were packaging maerial, nuriional and healh claims, presence of organic ingrediens and wheher he produc was produced locally. Facor analysis, cluser analysis and a median spli echnique were used o idenify marke segmens based on consumer preferences, behaviour, and lifesyles. Differences beween he segmens were analysed. A condiional logi model was used o esimae relaive of imporance and willingness-o-pay for he differen aribues. Resuls from he sudy show ha consumers place posiive values on, and are willing o pay a premium of ($1.04) for he Polyehylene Terephhalae (PET) bole and ($0.29) more for he no sugar added claim. Consumers wih high environmenal ineress were more likely o pay a premium for a frui juice wih organic ingrediens and a nuriional index on he label. High informaion seekers are willing o pay ($0.13) more for he nuriional index; compared o ($0.05) ha low informaion seeker will pay. Younger people are willing o pay more for local producs and more han double ($1.41) of wha older people will pay ($0.67) for a PET bole. According o Abbo, Wih an increasing emphasis on healh, nuriion and environmen, changing life syles and higher incomes, he U.S. marke offers several opporuniies for new producs. Today s rends for healhy eaing habis and ready o ea producs has increased consumer demand for more deailed and accessible informaion, primarily on food packaging and labels. Consumers like o know he ingrediens and he feaures relaed o food safey (Abbo, 1997). Alhough produc aribues such as qualiy and price are exremely imporan o consumers, packaging and labelling play a fundamenal role on consumer s inenion o purchase. These facors are imporan because hey represen he firs line of conac beween he consumer and he produc. In Johnson poin of view, over he las decade, here has been a growing U.S. rade defici in fresh and processed fruis and vegeables. Alhough U.S. frui and vegeable expors oaled more han $10 billion in 2009, U.S. impors of fruis and vegeables were nearly $16 billion, resuling in a gap beween impors and expors of almos $6 billion. This rade defici has widened over ime despie he fac ha U.S. frui and vegeable expors have coninued o rise each year because growh in impors has grealy oupaced expor growh. As a resul, he Unied Saes has gone from being a ne exporer of fresh and processed fruis and vegeables in he early 1970s o being a ne imporer of fruis and vegeables oday. A number of facors shaping curren compeiive marke condiions worldwide, and global rade in fruis and vegeables in paricular, parially explain he rising frui and vegeable rade defici. These include: A relaively open domesic impor regime and lower average impor ariffs in he Unied Saes, wih producs from mos leading suppliers enering he U.S. duy-free or a preferenial duy raes; Increased compeiion from low-cos or governmensubsidized producion; Coninued non-ariff rade barriers o U.S. expors in some counries, such as impor and inspecion requiremens, echnical produc sandards, and saniary and According o HUANG, Inernaional rade in fruis and vegeables has expanded a a higher rae han rade in oher agriculural commodiies, paricularly since he 1980s. No only has world rade in fruis and vegeables gained prominence, bu he variey of commodiies has expanded. Over he years, hree regions he European Union (EU), he Norh American Free Trade Agreemen (NAFTA) area, and Asia (Eas, Souheas, and Souh) have remained as boh he major desinaions and sources of supply. A subsanial share of heir rade is inerregional, paricularly ha of he EU. Paper ID: NOV hp://dx.doi.org/ /v5i6.nov

4 Inernaional Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) Index Copernicus Value (2013): 6.14 Impac Facor (2015): Visser, 2012 Horiculure value chains in Souh Africa are undergoing a process of rapid ransformaion. The secor is significan in he generaion of agriculural GDP, employmen and expors. European supermarkes have long been an imporan desinaion for frui. Supermarkes source hrough coordinaed value chains, wih sringen requiremens and have driven he rise of privae sandards. These improve qualiy bu increase he commercial pressures and coss for growers. Agriculural work has low eseem, and he secor faces a serious shorage of skilled labour despie rural unemploymen. Curren public and privae provision of raining is insufficienly resourced o generae an adequae pool of skilled labour. Growers and workers need beer reurns o ensure he resilience of qualiy horiculure value chains o supermarkes. Public and privae policy needs o enhance he skills and empowermen of workers, and suppor social provision o increase he appeal of working in horiculure. Global wise 2012 Washingon s apple indusry is a major conribuor of income, employmen and ax revenues o he sae s economy. The indusry boosed he Washingon economy by an esimaed $7.02 billion in direc, indirec and induced economic aciviy in This secor also accouned for an esimaed 59,650 jobs and oal annual employee compensaion of $1.95 billion. Business owners income in he sae oaled $837.6 million as a resul of he apple indusry economic aciviy. The ax revenue conribuions of he indusry were also very sizable. A he sae and local level, he oal ax revenues generaed by he Washingon apple indusry were $188.7 million. Federal ax revenues conribuions were esimaed o be $300.3 million. Apple expors are a key elemen of fuure economic prosperiy for he indusry and for he prosperiy of he Washingon sae economy. Abou one hird of oal fresh apple producion is expored. Growers have been expanding high densiy ree planings and adoping new varieies while packers have been invesing in new packing and sorage faciliies. If expors faler, grower income is a risk. This analysis shows ha if 5,000 carlos of fresh apples (a carlo is 1, pound boxes) desined for expor were insead added o domesic markes, he income loss o growers would be abou $55.17 million. This in urn would negaively impac he Washingon economy wih a decline of 925 jobs, loss of employee compensaion of $37.0 million, loss of sae and local ax revenue of $7.34 million and loss of federal ax revenue of $9.48 million. This analysis was based on he bes available daa and informaion for he markeing year Sepember 2010 o Augus Effor was made o separae apple producion, packing, processing and markeing and research aciviies from all oher ree frui crops. However, apples accoun for abou 80 percen of ree frui producion in he sae and mos growers and packers also grow or pack swee cherries, pears or oher ree fruis. This sudy does no accoun for he economic impacs of hese closely relaed frui secors, bu i should be poined ou ha hese ree fruis are synergisic and highly inegraed wih he dominan apple business. (FE van Dyk, 2004) This paper gives an overview of a sudy ha was done on he logisics infrasrucure used by he Souh African frui indusry. Given he increasing producion and expor volumes, developmen of new markes and he shorage of logisics infrasrucure capaciy during peak seasons, he SA frui indusry idenified he need o invesigae he opimal usage of exising infrasrucure on a naional level and o make recommendaions wih regards o he developmen of addiional infrasrucure. Some background on he SA fresh frui indusry and is expor supply chain are provided. This is followed by a descripion of he four projec phases and heir deliverables. The paper is concluded wih he key findings of he sudy. (Swenson, 2010) This research projec invesigaed he regional poenial of increased frui and vegeable producion in souhwes Iowa. The sudy region is composed of 10 counies: Adair, Adams, Audubon, Cass, Guhrie, Harrison, Mills, Mongomery, Poawaamie, and Shelby. This area includes some of Iowa s mos rural areas, ye i also is srongly influenced by he meropolian reach of Omaha and Council Bluffs o he wes and Des Moines on he eas. Iowa only produces a small fracion of is annual consumpion of fresh fruis and vegeables and mus impor hese agriculural commodiies from oher areas o mee our needs. One way in which rural economies can grow is o replace impors wih local producion, or hrough impor subsiuion. The oher much more common manner in which rural economies can increase local incomes is by increasing he volume or he kinds of commodiies ha hey expor. Anyhing ha is sold beyond he region s boundaries consiues an expor sale for he producing area, wheher i goes o oher pars of he sae, or o mee he heighened demand shown in he easern and wesern bordering meropolian areas. This research invesigaed he poenial value of impor subsiuion and expor sales of frui and vegeable producion in souhwes Iowa. This research was suppored in is enirey by he Leopold Cenre for Susainable Agriculure a Iowa Sae Universiy. (Godwin. M. Ahimbisibwe, 2013) The purpose of his sudy was o invesigae he impac of expor marke orienaion, innovaion on he expor performance of frui exporing firms in Uganda. The sudy was promped by he fac ha Uganda s frui expors were growing marginally when compared o oher frui exporing counries in he COMESA region. And i wasn clear wheher his rend could be aribued o low levels of expor marke orienaion and innovaiveness ha seemed o characerize mos of he frui exporing firms in Uganda, besides research on expor marke orienaion, innovaion and expor performance is disappoiningly scarce in Uganda. Therefore, a quaniaive cross secional research design was adoped o underake he sudy. A field sudy using simple random sampling was used o selec a sample of 56 firms whose 3 op execuives were key informans. Correlaion analysis was carried ou on he sudy and he findings revealed a significan posiive beween innovaion, marke orienaion and expor performance of frui exporing firms in Uganda which Paper ID: NOV hp://dx.doi.org/ /v5i6.nov

5 Inernaional Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) Index Copernicus Value (2013): 6.14 Impac Facor (2015): confirmed earlier submissions by previous researchers. However when a regression model was conduced, i was observed ha innovaion was a significan predicor of expor performance while expor marke orienaion wasn. I was herefore recommended ha frui exporing firms in Uganda should focus more on innovaion if hey are o enhance heir expor performance. (Ricardo Hausmann, 2007) According o Beneficiaion, moving downsream, and promoing greaer value added in naural resources are very common policy iniiaives o simulae new expor secors in developing counries, largely based on he premise ha his is a naural and logical pah for srucural ransformaion. Bu upon closer examinaion, we find ha very few counries ha expor raw maerials also expor heir processed forms, or ransiion o greaer processing. The quaniaive analysis finds ha broad facor inensiies do a much beer job of idenifying paerns of producion and srucural ransformaion han forward linkages, which have an insignifican impac despie he fac ha our daa is biased agains finding significan effecs of facor inensiies and owards finding significan effecs of forward linkages. Moreover, he explanaory power of forward linkages is even smaller in secors wih high ranspor coss, and in secors classified as primary producs or raw maerials, which are he mos common arges of such policies. Finally, he resuls are he same even when only considering developed counries, meaning ha colonial? legacy inhibiing ransiions o naural resource processing are no o blame. These resuls sugges ha policies o promoe greaer downsream processing as an expor promoion policy is misguided. Srucural ransformaion favours secors wih similar echnological requiremens, facor inensiies, and oher requisie capabiliies, no producs conneced in producion chains. There is no reason for counries like Souh Africa o focus aenion on beneficiaion a he expense of policies ha would allow oher expor secors o emerge. This makes no sense concepually, and is compleely inconsisen wih inernaional experience. Quie simply, beneficiaion is a bad policy paradigm. (EMMANUEL, 2002) This sudy was promped afer observing he sporadic naure of Uganda's frui expors in he las 8 years. This fac was srenghened by he overall fall in expors in Uganda o oher neighboring counries and he dismal engagemen in global rade by Sub-Saharan Africa counries despie he adven of globalizaions and regional economic inegraion and corporaion. The objecives of his sudy herefore were o: Deermine he relaionship beween firm characerisics and expor markeing sraegy, deermine he relaionship beween firm characerisics and expor performance, deermine he relaionship beween expor markeing sraegy and expor performance, and deermine he relaionship beween managemen aiudes and expor markeing sraegy. To achieve he above objecives, a quaniaive correlaion research design was used o execue he sudy. A sample of 31 firms was aken afer sraifying he populaion and hen sampling purposively. Daa was colleced using a well preesed quesionnaire and analyzed using saisical package for social scieniss. The sudy demonsraed ha indeed firm characerisics, managemen aiudes and expor markeing sraegy are key deerminans of expor performance among frui exporers in Uganda. This was confirmed by R2 of 45.3%. Managemen of frui exporing firms should d herefore consider puing in place sraegies o address aspecs of firm characerisics, managemen aiudes, expor markeing sraegy and expor performance in order o win in he inernaional marke. 3. Mehodology 3.1 Mehodology Simple OLS mehods are used o check he relaionship beween dependen variable (Frui Expors) and independen variable (cirus, mangoes, apple, aprico and almond) In saisics, linear regression is an approach o modeling he relaionship beween a scalar dependen variable and one or more explanaory variables denoed by X. The model sipulaes he impac of frui producion on Pakisani expors. exs ci app apr alm man ban Where exs sand for expors of fruis, ci is producion of cirus, man is mangoes, app is apple, apr is aprico and alm is used for almond Analysis and discussions This secion includes descripive as well as quaniaive analysis and resuls of hese analyses are discussed in his secion Quaniaive Analysis For analysis of daa one mehod is used in his sudy: ha is regression. Iniially regression is used o check he impac of differen independen variables on he dependen variable and also o es significance of his impac. 4. Resuls and Discussion 4.1. Analysis of Resuls of Uni Roo This paper is an aemp o invesigae he relaionship beween producion of seleced fruis and heir expors. Secondary daa of 19 years from 1992 o 2010 is used for his purpose. The firs sep in he empirical analysis involves esing he ime series characerisics of he daa series using ADF ess. All he variables used in his sudy are saionary in heir level. Regarding he hypohesis of he sudy i is concluded ha he enire Hypohesis has no posiive impac on expors. Because of Muliple linear regression expors has no complee posiive relaion wih he producion of seleced fruis. Paper ID: NOV hp://dx.doi.org/ /v5i6.nov

6 ADF es of resul of agri secor & expor Inernaional Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) Index Copernicus Value (2013): 6.14 Impac Facor (2015): S# Variables Inercep and rend Order of inegraion 1 Exs Ci *** 3(0) Man *** App *** Apr *** Alm *** NOTE: * denoe he rejecion of he null hypohesis a 1% level of significance, ** denoes he rejecion of he null hypohesis a 5 % level of significance, *** denoes he rejecion of he null hypohesis a 10 % level of significance, Legged: EXPT sands for fruis expors of Pakisan in ons. Ci sands for cirus, Man sands for mango, App sands for apple, Apr sands for aprico and Alm sands for almond. Muliple Linear Regression Oupu Variable Coefficien Sd. Error -Saisic Prob. C LOGCIT LOGMAN LOGAPP LOGBAN LOGAPR LOGALM R-squared Mean dependen var Adjused R- squared S.D. dependen var S.E. of regression Akaik info crierion Sum squared resid Schwarz crierion Log likelihood F-saisic Durbin-Wason sa Prob(F-saisic) From he regression oupu explains ha here is negaive and insignifican relaionship beween expors of seleced fruis and cirus producion. Producion of almond is also affecing fruis expors negaively and significanly. Bu when we observe he relaionship of producion of mangoes, apple, banana and aprico wih frui expors, we come o know ha all are affecing posiively and insignificanly excep apple ha is affecing significanly. 5. Conclusions Besides descripion of he impac of agriculural fruis on expor, his paper provides insighs ino he possible iner relaion and iner- dependencies beween he expor and agriculural fruis, cirus, mango, apple, banana, almond and aprico during he period According o he empirical resuls, a change in he agriculural fruis oupu leads o a more han proporional change in expors in he long run. An imporan policy implicaion of his sudy is ha an expansion in agriculural fruis in Pakisan can provide imporan revenue for he economic growh. I is imporan for addiional measures o improve he frui producion and he expors. On he basis of findings i is recommended ha Governmen of Pakisan should give incenives o he farmers producing apples. References [1] Abbo, R. (1997). Food and nuriion informaion: a sudy of sources, uses and undersanding. Briish Food Journal 99 (2): [2] Abid, M. Sami Khan (1980) Markeing Infra-srucure, Margins and Seasonal Price Variaion of Seleced Agriculural Commodiies in Sindh Province of Pakisan. [3] Anon( 2007) Food and Agriculure Organizaion of he Unied Naions (FAO). The Lahore Journal of Economics 14 : 2 (Winer 2009): pp [4] Abbas.M.,(2013) Effec of rade defici on he economy of Pakisan Insiue of Inerdisciplinary Business research;4 [5] Albisu, L.M. (1995). Tree Nus Economic Oulook in The Medierranean Area: The Selecion of Main Research Area. Documeno de Trabajo 95/2. Servicio de Invesigacion Agraria, Unidad de Economíay Sociología Agrarias, Zaragoza. [6] Bonilla, T. (2004). analysis of consumer preferences oward 100% frui juice packages and labels. [7] Dr. Gayaneh, D. J. (2010). Nuriional Comparison of Frozen and Non Frozen Fruis and Vegeables. The Food Processing Cener Universiy of Nebraska-Lincoln. [8] Emmanuel, B. (2002). firm characerisics, managemen aiudes, and expor performance in frui secor.. badaza emmanuel 2002/HDI0/1699/U. [9] FE van Dyk, E. M. (2004). An analysis of he Souh African frui logisics infrasrucure. ORiON ISSN X c [10] Globalwise Inc., V. W. (2012). The Washingon Apple Indusry. Globalwise. [11] Godwin. M. Ahimbisibwe, J... (2013). expor marke orienaion, innovaion and performance of frui exporing firms in uganda. european Scienific Journal February 2013 ediion vol.9, No.4 ISSN: (Prin) e - ISSN [12] hp:// 2013/pakisan-s-expors-of-fruis-vegeables-rise [13] hp:// [14] hp:// of apple producion [15] Huang, S. W. (2006). Global Trade Paerns in Fruis and Vegeables. Unied Saes Deparmen of Agriculure. [16] Johnson, R. (2012). The U.S. Trade Siuaion for Frui and Vegeable Producs. Congressional Research Service. [17] Khan, D. A. (1994) Problems and Prospecs of Horiculure in Pakisan. Proceedings of he Firs Inernaional Horiculure Seminar. Islamabad: Pakisan Agriculure Research Council. [18] Khushk.A.M.,D.Smih &Laurence. A preliminary y Analysis of markeing Mango In Sindh Province, Pakisan.Naional Agriculural research Cenre. Paper ID: NOV hp://dx.doi.org/ /v5i6.nov

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