THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE TAXES AND ADVERTISING ON THE DEMAND FOR CIGARETTES IN UKRAINE

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1 Cen Eur J Public Healh 29; 17 (2): THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE TAXES AND ADVERTISING ON THE DEMAND FOR CIGARETTES IN UKRAINE Limin Peng 1, Hana Ross 2 1 Deparmen of Biosaisics and Bioinformaics, Rollins School of Public Healh, Emory Universiy, USA 2 Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Sociey, USA SUMMARY Background: Cigaree consumpion in Ukraine is increasing while he cigarees are becoming more affordable due o low axes and raising income. The impac of cigaree prices and axes on cigaree consumpion is unclear due o he limied research evidence using he local daa. This sudy esimaes he sensiiviy of Ukraine populaion o cigaree prices and he affordabiliy of cigarees using he macro level daa in order o predic he effeciveness of cigaree ax policy. Mehods: Monhly ime-series daa available from 1997 o 26 in Ukraine were used o esimae he generalized leas square model wih an AR(1) process o invesigae he impac of cigaree price/ax, household income, he affordabiliy of cigarees and he volume of obacco adverising on Ukraine domesic cigaree sales while conrolling for oher facors. Resuls: Our analyses demonsrae a srong posiive associaion beween cigaree sales and household income as well as a srong posiive associaion beween cigaree sales and obacco adverising aciviy. The populaion is found o have relaively low sensiiviy o cigaree prices and cigaree axes, bu he impac of cigarees affordabiliy is saisically significan, even hough also of low magniude. Conclusion: We speculae ha he lower sensiiviy o cigaree prices among Ukraine populaion is caused by wide price variaion allowing smokers o avoid a price increase by brand subsiuion as well as by low coss of cigarees, high social accepance of smoking and limied effor o conrol obacco use in Ukraine. Narrowing he cigaree price choices and increasing cigaree prices above he level of inflaion and income growh by adoping he appropriae ax policy would likely increase he effeciveness of his ool for conrolling he smoking rae in Ukraine as well as yield addiional budge revenue gains. In addiion, imposing adverising resricion may furher help reducing he smoking prevalence. Key words: Ukraine obacco conrol, cigaree demand, cigaree ax policy Address for correspondence: L. Peng, Deparmen of Biosaisics and Bioinformaics, Rollins School of Public Healh, Emory Universiy, 1518 Clifon Rd. NE, Alana, GA 3322, USA. lpeng@sph.emory.edu INTRODUCTION Smoking is a serious hrea o public healh and he leading cause of premaure deahs. According o esimaes by he World Healh Organizaion, 5 million people hroughou he world die each year due o smoking relaed diseases (1); ou of hose 11 housand are Ukrainians (2). In addiion, deerioraion of public healh due o smoking negaively affecs governmen finances and naional economy as a whole. Two obvious consequences are growing healh care expendiures (which in Ukraine is primarily financed from he sae budge) and reduced produciviy of labor force due o chronic diseases and premaure deahs (3). Therefore, i is crucial for he governmen o ake acions in order o preven public healh deerioraion and he economic losses due o smoking. Cigaree consumpion has been quickly growing in Ukraine. Based on he official daa on legal sales (Noe: This was calculaed based on he official saisics using he formula: domesic producion expors + impors) of cigarees provided by he Sae Saisics Commiee (Fig. 1), here is nearly wo-fold increase in legal cigarees sales from 1997 o 25. The eviden growing rend in legal sales, especially beween year 2 and year 25, may reflec rising cigaree consumpion in Ukraine. If he Billion sicks Year Yearly legal domesic cigaree sale Fig. 1. Legal domesic sales of cigarees in Ukraine. exising rend coninues, one may predic an increasing number of obacco relaed diseases and he obacco relaed deahs in he populaion. Governmen inervenions, such as high obacco ax, have been shown o be effecive o conrol he smoking-relaed public healh and economic problems. The poenial benefis include 93

2 reducion of obacco consumpion and smoking prevalence as well as increases in budge revenue ha could poenially offse addiional healh care expendiure caused by smoking. Ukraine currenly has low obacco ax rae, paricularly when compared o oher European counries. The share of excise ax (i.e. he specific and he ad valorem excise ax) in reail price was only 17.2% for filered cigarees (he mos popular caegory in Ukraine) and 28% for non-filered cigarees in 25. The oal ax incidences on obacco producs (including VAT) in he same year were as follows: 33.9% of reail price for filered cigarees, and 44.7% for non-filered cigarees. This is abou wo imes lower share of ax in cigaree reail price compared o EU counries (4). Such low cigaree ax raes in Ukraine promoe cigaree consumpion, in addiion o conribuing o smuggling problems from Ukraine o neighboring counries caused by he cigaree price differenials. Imposing regulaions on obacco adverising is anoher common governmen inervenion o reduce obacco consumpion, based upon he evidence ha oal adverising bans reduce smoking prevalence (5). Since lae 199s, Ukraine governmen has made some posiive moves owards obacco conrol by he means of resricing obacco adverising. However, he final version of he law in 23 banned only prime ime obacco adverising on radio and elevision and parially resrics obacco adverisemens in he press and oudoors (6). As a resul, he oudoor and poin of sale adverising has been widely used by he obacco indusry o promoe heir producs. Cigaree demand in low- and middle-income counries such as Ukraine has been sudied primarily by analyzing naional-level aggregae consumpion daa (generally based on ax-paid sales) and individual or household-level survey daa. The esimaes of he impac of price on cigaree demand fall in a relaively wide range depending on he populaion sudied, he daa employed, and he mehods used o esimae demand (7, 8). However, he majoriy of evidence suggess ha 1% increase in cigaree prices would resul in a 2 1% reducion in cigaree demand (9). For example, a 1998 sudy from Brazil (1) used annual daa on cigaree consumpion for he period and found ha a 1% increase in cigaree prices would reduce overall cigaree consumpion up o 2% in he shor-run, and up o 8% in he longrun. The same sudy also found ha a 1% rise in income would increase cigaree consumpion in Brazil up o 3.1% in he shorrun and up o 8% in he long-run. A 22 sudy from Indonesia (11) used ime series daa and esimaed he impac of cigaree prices and income on he oal demand for cigarees. The auhors found ha price had a negaive and significan impac on cigaree consumpion: a 1% increase in real cigaree prices lowered he demand by 3.2 o 5.7%. Higher income also led o higher demand for cigarees: a 1% increase in real income increased his demand by abou 4.7%. The degree of price responsiveness was a bi smaller when monhly daa were used. This difference was aribued o he long-ime, addiced smokers need o adjus heir behavior o new prices. Research in Sri Lanka (12) evaluaed aggregae monhly daa on cigaree consumpion from 1999 o 2 and concluded ha a 1% increase in cigaree prices would reduce overall consumpion by 2.3% o 9.1%. A 1% increase in income would increase overall cigaree consumpion by 1.8% o 7.8%. This wide range of esimaes was due o he use of various obacco demand model specificaions. However, price and income were significan deerminans of obacco demand in each of he models. Very few sudies of price sensiiviy (i.e. he degree of responsiveness o a price change) of cigaree demand exis in he Former Socialis counries in Cenral and Easern Europe. A 22 sudy (13) esimaed he impac of higher cigaree prices on smoking paricipaion and smoking inensiy in Russia while conrolling for age, wealh, educaion, household size, and gender using longiudinal daa from eigh rounds of household surveys (1992 2). The model prediced ha a 1% increase in cigaree prices would reduce overall cigaree consumpion by.2% o 1.8% and reduce smoking paricipaion by.5 o 1%. However, he sudy did no ake ino accoun subsiuion beween cigarees of differen price groups. In Ukraine, sudies of cigaree demand are all based on microlevel survey daa. Only one of hese sudies was published in a peer reviewed lieraure (14). I used he Global Youh Tobacco Survey (GYTS) colleced in Kiev in 1999 and esimaed ha a 1% increase in cigaree price would decrease smoking paricipaion among youh by.5%. No sudy has analyzed macro-level daa o address he issue of price responsiveness of cigaree demand in Ukraine. In his sudy we invesigae he impac of price/ax of cigarees, household income, and volume of obacco adverising, on Ukraine domesic cigaree sales. In addiion, we examine how cigaree ax rae influences he cigaree price and evenually plays a role in conrolling cigaree consumpion. Our analysis provides some useful informaion for he direcion of policy making wih he goal of achieving reducion of smoking aking ino accoun he limied resources available o he Ukraine governmen. DATA AND METHODS The monhly ime-series daa for January1997 o May 26 used in his sudy conain informaion on legal domesic sales (mln. Sick), cigaree price per pack (in local currency Hryvnia, UAH), household income (bln. UAH), consumer price index (CPI), exchange rae (UAH for 1 US dollar, USD), volume of oudoor adverising (number of billboards), and cigaree excise rae in Ukraine (UAH/pack). Legal domesic sales of cigarees were calculaed by using domesic producion (mln. Sick), impors (mln. Sick), and expors (mln. Sick) daa repored by he Sae Saisics Commiee, and applying he formula: sales = domesic producion + impors expors. Monhly sales daa were adjused for seasonaliy and he resulan variable was recorded as SADomSale. Average weighed cigaree price (WgPrice), inflaion-adjused UAH per pack, was used as an overall measure of he cos associaed wih cigaree consumpion. To calculae he average weighed price, we weighed he prices for filered and non-filered cigarees by he shares of filered and non-filered cigarees sale, respecively. Average monhly household income, SAHincome (bln. UAH), was used o represen he well-being of Ukrainians. The household income daa were recorded as moneary income (e.g. income from salaries) ill year 21 and oal income (i.e. moneary earnings plus he value of goods received in barer) aferwards, and were firs adjused by he consumer price index (CPI) and hen adjused seasonally. In addiion, we consider exchange rae of Hryvnia 94

3 (UAH) wih respec o he US dollar (ExchgRae) as a proxy for he missing daa on he price of raw obacco used in cigaree producion, he majoriy of which is impored o Ukraine. Seasonally adjused volumes of oudoor obacco adverising (AdOu) were colleced as numbers of billboards in wo regional ceners of Ukraine, in he ciies of Simferopol and Sevasopol. Similar o he calculaion of WgPrice, we used shares of filered and non-filered cigarees as weighs o calculae inflaion-adjused average cigaree excise rae in Ukraine (ExcTaxRae), UAH per pack. Our calculaion of cigaree excise ax was based on he Ukraine ax able beween 1996 and 26. When calculaing he pension fund ax for year 2 (= 5% cigaree wholesale price), which is par of he excise ax, we use he wholesale prices of.95uah/pack and.32uah/pack for filered and non-filered cigarees, respecively. The wholesale prices were derived based on he average pack price and he obacco ax law in force a ha ime. In Figure 2, we plo monhly recorded SADomSale, WgPrice, SAHincome, ExchgRae, ExcTaxRae, and AdOu versus ime. An overall increasing rend over ime is observed for domesic cigaree sale and volume of oudoor obacco adverising. The weighed average real price of cigaree was increasing unil 2, bu hen i declined unil 22, increased a he beginning of 22, and hen declined again. The exchange rae of UAH sared o dramaically increase a he end of year 1998 and became sabilized in 2. Afer being adjused for inflaion, he household income appears o decrease before 22, coinciding wih he rapid increase of he exchange rae of UAH during he same ime period, and hen seadily increase aferwards. For cigaree excise ax, he peak observed in 1999 is relaed o he swich from quoing cigaree ax rae in ECU (European Currency Uni) o using he local currency and o he increase in he ax rae for non-filered cigarees. The excise ax rae declined during years , and hen slighly increased wih he inroducion of he mixed sysem of obacco axaion a he beginning of 24. mln. Sicks Legal Domesic Cigaree Sale To esimae domesic cigaree sale in Ukraine, we firs consider a linear funcional model wih independen variables including WgPrice, SAHincome, and AdOu. Naural logarihm ransformaions are applied o boh response, SADomSale, and he independen variables saed above, for he purpose of reducing daa skewness. In order o ake ino accoun he fac ha he bln. UAH UAH/1USD UAH/pack Household Income Time (monhs) Exchange Rae Time (monhs) Volume of Oudoor Tobacco Adverising Time (monhs) 6 UAH/Pack Weighed Average Cigaree Price Time (monhs) number of billboards Time (monhs) Fig. 2. Time series plos of domesic cigaree sale, weighed average cigaree price, household income, exchange rae, cigaree excise ax, volume of oudoor obacco adverising. 95

4 household income daa were recorded as moneary income before 22 and as oal income aferwards, we include anoher dummy variable, Moneary, which equals 1 if SAHincome corresponds o moneary income and oherwise. In specific, he model can be represened as follows: log( SADomSale) 1 log( WgPrice) 2 log( SAHincome) [1] 3 log( AdOu) 4( Moneary) e where indicaes he ime, and α and β j (j=1,, 4) are unknown regression coefficiens. For model [1], we firs perform ordinary leas square (OLS) analysis, assuming he independence of residuals, { e }, across differen ime poins. The resuls from he OLS analysis are presened in Table 1. Table 1. Resuls from evaluaing he effecs of cigaree price, household income, volume of oudoor adverising on Ukraine legal domesic sales of cigarees based on ordinary leas square regression Coeffi cien Esimae Inercep 2.87 (1.1).1 Log(WgPrice).7 (.12).56 Log(SAHincome).35 (.12) <.1 Log(AdOu).38 (.5) <.1 Moneary.14 (.9).14 : Sandard error. To es he validiy of he resuls in Table 1, we check he assumed sochasic independence of { e } by using Durbin-Wason es. The resulan p value is less han.1, and hus srongly suggess a posiive auocorrelaion of residuals. Based on he residuals obained from he OLS fi of model [1], denoed by { e }, we obain esimaes of he auocorrelaion funcion (ACF) and parial auocorrelaion funcion (PACF) of he residuals, which are ploed in Figure 3 (a) and (b) respecively. These esimaes depic he repeaing paerns of { e }, and hus help choose an appropriae correlaion model for he random residuals. The sinusoidal decay in ACF and one major spike in PACF observed in Figure 3 is suggesive of an AR(1) process for he residuals in model [1], which implies ha he srengh of he correlaion beween he wo residuals decays exponenially wih he ime span beween hem. We use generalized leas square (GLS) o fi model [1], assuming { e } is an AR(1) process. The esimaion of regression coefficiens and he associaed sandard errors is based on maximum likelihood mehod. In addiion o model [1], we consider an alernaive model for Ukraine domesic cigaree sales by incorporaing a new independen variable, namely Afford=SAHincome/WgPrice. A larger value of Afford indicaes ha obacco price akes a smaller percenage of household income. Hence he new variable, Afford, may be inerpreed as affordabiliy of cigaree. The second model akes he following form: log ( SADomSale) ' 1'log ( Afford) 2'log ( AdOu ) [2] '( Moneary) e ' 3 where indicaes ime, and α' and β j ' (j=1, 2, 3) are unknown regression coefficiens. Like wih model [1], we find ha i is appropriae o assume an AR(1) srucure for he correlaion among residuals in model [2], { e ' }. We fi model [2] using generalized leas square wih residual process specified as AR(1). Maximum likelihood mehod is adoped for fiing model [2]. I is noed from he definiion of Afford ha model [2] is essenially a nesed model wih respec o model [1]. We compare he fi of model [1] and ha of model [2] by using F-es. The resulan is less han.1, suggesing ha model [1] may provide a beer fi o he daa han model [2]. The second opic addressed by his sudy is o explore poenial deerminans of cigaree prices. For his purpose, we build a separae model for WgPrice, which include he variable for cigaree ax rae, ExcTaxRae, as a predicor. I is of a paricular ineres o invesigae he impac of obacco ax on cigaree prices since ax is a poenial public policy ool for regulaing obacco consumpion. Exchange rae of UAH (ExchgRae) and volume of oudoor obacco adverising (AdOu) are also included o he model because boh of hem are expeced o influence he producion cos and markeing cos of obacco producs. Anoher facor under consideraion is real household income (SAHincome), which can influence pricing sraegy of obacco indusry. The variables, Moneary, is included in he model o accoun for he difference beween moneary and oal household incomes. The model for cigaree price is given by: log( WgPrice) where indicaes ime, α and β j (j=1,, 5) are unknown regression coefficiens. Applying similar procedures for models [1] [2], we find ha an AR(1) process is adequae o model he residual process, { e }, in [3]. The model [3] is esimaed based on generalized leas square regression, using maximum likelihood mehod. 1 log( SAHincome) 2 log( ExchgRae) [3] 3 log( ExcTaxRae) 4 ( AdOu) 5 ( Moneary) e RESULTS Fig. 3. Plos of auocorrelaion and parial auocorrelaion of model [1] residuals. The resuls for model [1] are summarized in Table 2. Afer adjusing for he residual auocorrelaion, he GLS analysis shows ha he cigaree price is no significanly associaed wih legal domesic sale of cigaree. We also direcly assess he effec of he inflaion adjused cigaree exercise ax on legal domesic cigaree 96

5 Table 2. Resuls from evaluaing he effecs of cigaree price, household income, volume of oudoor adverising on Ukraine legal domesic sales of cigarees based on generalized leas square regression Coeffi cien Esimae Inercep 4.36 (1.25) <.1 Log(WgPrice).9 (.15).55 Log(SAHincome).3 (.15).5 Log(AdOu).25 (.6) <.1 Moneary.23 (.1).3 : Sandard error. Table 3. Resuls from evaluaing he effecs of cigaree affordabiliy, volume of oudoor adverising on Ukraine legal domesic sales of cigarees based on generalized leas square regression Coeffi cien Esimae Inercep 5.82 (.68) <.1 Log(Afford).1 (.5).6 Log(AdOu).24 (.6) <.1 Moneary.35 (.5) <.1 : Sandard error. sale by replacing he WgPrice in model [1] by ExcTaxRae, bu he effec of excise ax rae on cigaree sale was no saisically significan, eiher. Higher household income and more acive oudoor adverising have posiive and significan impac on cigaree sales (p=.5, p<.1). A 1% increase in income and adverising would increase cigaree sale by 2.9% (= ) and 2.4% (= ), respecively. The resuls from generalized leas square analysis of model [2] are given in Table 3. I shows a posiive relaionship beween he affordabiliy for cigaree and legal domesic cigaree sales (p=.6). This means ha domesic cigaree sales would decrease if cigaree purchases represen higher percenage of household income. The esimaed elasiciy of affordabiliy is.1, meaning ha decreasing cigarees affordabiliy by 1% would resul in 1.% (= ) decline in cigaree sales. Given he sandard error for log(afford),.5, he elasiciy of affordabiliy significanly differs from 1 or -1 (p<.1) based on Wald es, indicaing ha Ukraine cigaree sales are affordabiliy inelasic. Based on model [2], again, we find he volume of adverising has a significan effec on he sales of cigarees in Ukraine and he magniude of he impac is similar o model [1]. Table 4 gives he coefficien esimaes, sandard errors, and he corresponding s for he cigaree price model [3]. The resuls sugges ha weaker local currency and a higher cigaree excise ax rae is significanly associaed wih a higher cigaree price (p<.1, p<.1). Weaker UAH causes an increase in he price of impored raw obacco, hereby resuling in a higher price of cigaree. And higher cigaree excise rae is passed on o he consumers. For example, increasing he cigaree excise ax by Table 4. Resuls from evaluaing he effecs of household income, exchange rae of UAH, cigaree ax rae, volume of oudoor adverising on Ukraine cigaree price based on generalized leas square regression Coeffi cien Esimae Inercep -3.1 (.92) <.1 Log(SAHincome).3 (.6).6 Log(ExchgRae).64 (.11) <.1 Log(ExcTaxRae).27 (.5) <.1 Log(AdOu) -.3 (.2).13 Moneary -.2 (.4).61 : Sandard error. 1% would increase he cigaree price by 3% (= ). This demonsraes ha cigaree ax policy can be used o regulae cigaree price in Ukraine. Volume of oudoor obacco adverising does no have a significan effec on cigaree price. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Our analysis of Ukraine cigaree ime-series daa demonsraes a srong posiive associaion beween cigaree sales and household income as well as a srong posiive associaion beween cigaree sales and obacco adverising aciviy. The resuls reveal ha 5% increase in household income would resul in 13% (= ) increase in cigaree sales, while 5% less oudoor obacco adverising may reduce legal cigaree sales by 16% (= ). Our resuls indicae ha imposing furher adverising resricion may help reduce smoking prevalence. The model assessing he impac of affordabiliy offers a valuable perspecive o undersanding he combined effec of household income and cigaree prices on cigaree sales. I suggess ha cigaree sale may decrease if he affordabiliy of cigarees decreases. In Ukraine, as noed in Fig. 2, he real household income has been increasing while he real cigaree prices sagnae a bes since 21. This may somewha explain why cigaree price iself is no a significan predicor for cigaree sale under model [1] which also adjuss for household income, while he variable represening affordabiliy demonsraes a prey good prognosic power under model [2]. Affordabiliy may serve as a valuable proxy for he combined effec of household income and cigaree price on cigaree sales. We found relaively low sensiiviy of he populaion o he average affordabiliy of cigarees. This can be resul of he wide range of cigaree prices on he Ukraine marke allowing smokers or poenial smokers escaping he impac of a higher price/ax increase by subsiuing o a cheaper cigaree brand. Oher reasons may include low coss of cigarees, high social accepance of smoking and limied effor o conrol obacco use in Ukraine. Narrowing he cigaree price choices by adoping appropriae ax policy would likely increase he effeciveness of obacco ax policy in Ukraine. This, however, needs o be confirmed by furher research. The relaionship beween cigaree axaion and cigaree sales is anoher subjec of ineres of his sudy. We assume in he analysis ha cigaree axaion influences he cigaree sales 97

6 only hrough is impac on cigaree price. We find ha 5% cigaree excise ax increase may resul in 12% (= ) cigaree price increase. According o he cigaree sale model based on affordabiliy, his would incur only 1.1% (= ) decrease in cigaree sales if he income says consan. However, such ax increase would resul in approximaely 48.4% [=1.5 (1-.11)-1] increase in cigaree ax revenue. This calculaion illusraes ha higher cigaree axes would no only improve public healh by reducing smoking, bu also yield budge revenue gains. In our esimaes, we relied on official saisics ha may no sufficienly represen he realiy. For example, income daa may no capure incomes from he grey economy or income ransferred from abroad. The deviaion of our dependen variable from he rue values does no affec coefficien esimaes since any measuremen error is capured in he error erm of our model. On he oher hand, some biases may resul from measuremen errors in he independen variables. However, o he exen ha his measuremen error is no random (and i is possible ha i is sysemaic if he Sae Saisics Commiee in Ukraine uses he same mehod o collec he daa over ime), our esimaes of covariae effecs will no be biased. Acknowledgemens We would like o hank he Open Sociey Insiue and he Bloomberg Iniiaive o Reduce Tobacco Use for funding for his sudy. REFERENCES 1. World Healh Organizaion. The World Healh Repor 22: reducing risks, promoing healhy life. Geneva: WHO; Euromonior Inernaional [homepage on he Inerne]. Tobacco in Ukraine [cied 28 Sep 24]. Available from: hp:// com/tobacco_in_ukraine. 3. Peo R, Lopez AD, Boreham J, Thun M. Moraliy from smoking in developed counries nd ediion [monograph on he Inerne]. Geneva: Inernaional Union Agains Cancer (UICC); 26 [cied 28 Sep 24]. Available from: hp:// 4. European Commission. Excise duy ables. Par III - manufacured obacco. Brussels: Direcorae General Taxaion and Cusoms Union; Saffer H. Tobacco adverising and promoion. In: Jha P, Chaloupka FJ, ediors. Tobacco conrol in developing counries. Oxford: Oxford Universiy Press; 2. p ERC Saisics Inernaional plc. The world cigarees. Marke: he 24 survey. Suffolk (UK): ERC; Galle CA, Lis JA. Cigaree demand: a mea-analysis of elasiciies. Healh Econ. 23 Oc;12(1): Wasserman J, Manning WG, Newhouse JP, Winkler JD. The effecs of excise axes and regulaions on cigaree smoking. J Healh Econ May;1(1): Chaloupka FJ, Hu T, Warner KE, Jacobs R, Yurekli A. The axaion of obacco producs. In: Jha P, Chaloupka FJ, ediors. Tobacco conrol in developing counries. Oxford: Oxford Universiy Press; 2. p Da Cosa e Silva VL. The Brazilian cigaree indusry: prospecs for consumpion reducion. In: Abedian I, e al, ediors. The economics of obacco conrol: owards an opimal policy mix. Cape Town: Applied Fiscal Research Cenre, Universiy of Cape Town; p Djuahara T, Surya HV, Pasay NHA, Hendrano, Adioeomo SM. Aggregae analysis of he impac of cigaree ax rae increases on obacco consumpion and governmen revenue: he case of Indonesia. Healh, nuriion and populaion (HNP) discussion paper. Economics of obacco conrol paper no. 25. Washingon, DC: World Bank; Arunailake N. An economic analysis of obacco demand in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka Econ J. 22;3(1): Lance PM, Akin JS, Dow WH, Loh CP. Is cigaree smoking in poorer naions highly sensiive o price? Evidence from Russia and China. J Healh Econ. 24 Jan;23(1): Ross H. The Ukraine (Kiev) 1999 global youh obacco survey: economic issues. Healh, nuriion and populaion (HNP) discussion paper. Economics of obacco conrol paper no. 2. Washingon, DC: World Bank; 24. Received Sepember 24, 28 Acceped in revised form February 23, 29 98