Plan for Monitoring Milestones in the GPEI Strategic Plan

Transcription

1 Plan for Monitoring Milestones in the GPEI Strategic Plan SAGE, 15 April 2010 CDC s role Objectives: Independently monitor & analyze program/epi/lab data for each milestone, and evaluate implementation of appropriate mid-course corrections for at risk milestones 1. Are data valid? 2. Are milestones on-track & consistent with epi data? 3. Are appropriate mid-course corrections being implemented? Commitment: Top priority for CDC/Global Immunization Division (GID) Close collaboration with CDC/Division of Viral Diseases (DVD)/Polio & Picornavirus Laboratory Branch Personnel obligations Robb Linkins & Paul Chenoweth (CDC s leads) Six additional Atlanta-based staff

2 >40 milestones assessed over 3 years Similar from year to year Similar across regions >14 separate data sources required in 2010 Include both outcome & process milestones Milestone categories are broad and targeted to endemic, reestablished, and importation belt countries Overview: milestones Additional milestones from country plans may be tracked to better understand achievement Overview: milestone reporting Six month milestone status reports starting mid-2010 Milestones categorized as: on-track progressing but with issues of concern not on track & at risk for completion Mid-course correction? Interim reports: for milestones not on track & at risk for completion new outbreaks

3 Overview: milestone reporting 2010 example Preliminary report mid milestones Preliminary report end-2010 milestones Mid-2010 End-2010 Mid-2011 Interim Interim Interim End-2011 FINAL report mid-2010 milestones Preliminary report end-2010 milestones FINAL report end-2010 milestones Initial approach - 1 Catalog all milestones from GPEI & country plans Identify similarities & gaps Simplify compound GPEI milestones For example (original text): end-2010: <10% missed children during at least 2 SIAs in all towns of Karachi; <15% missed children during at least 2 SIAs in all districts of the Quetta area & the persistent transmission districts of NWFP & FATA. Create unique milestone identifiers For example: one milestone sub-divided into two; E01.1 & E01.2 A=AFRO, E=EMRO, G=Global, O=Outbreak, S=SEARO, V=Surveillance, Z=Imm Services 01 = First EMRO milestone

4 Initial approach - 2 Create multiple data fields based on data elements Example for G01: Cessation of all polio outbreaks with onset in 2009 MSnum Type MS TimePeriod StartReport EndReport Source Country Geography AgeRange Data1 Cessation of all polio WHERE G01 Outcome outbreaks with onset mid Jul Dec-10 GPEI tblcountry.statuscode_2 All HQ_WVS in =importation This milestone requires a 6 month validation period; EndReport refers to the last analysis date; analysis will continue if milestone is not met. Scope of work - 1 In 2010 alone there are 11 categories of milestones needing to be assessed across the regions that will require at least 14 data sources Access to data is of paramount importance WHO-HQ will share their data Routinely share non-sensitive data sources Allow controlled access to sensitive data source 2010 milestone categories WPV transmission interrupted & cessation of outbreaks Percent missed children (per NP AFP data) Percent missed children (SIA data) Population immunity to type 1 polio NP AFP rate at state / prov. Level Percent adequate specimens at state / prov level Percent WPV / cvdpv importations responded to per international outbreak response guidelines Percent of countries where an international assessment was conducted Environmental sampling expanded Multiyear plan for all immunization services (incl. polio) established Survey of GPEI staff completed. Data Sources Number of indicators AFRO_AFP 6 AFRO_SIA 5 EMRO_AFP 1 EMRO_SIA 4 ENV 1 ERC_Serology 1 HQ_WVLL 4 Importations 1 OutbreakAssessment 1 OutbreakResponse 1 Population 2 SEARO_AFP 1 SIS_Plan_Summary 1 SIS_Survery_Summary 1

5 Scope of work 2 Data quality - standardized assessments Critical data elements missing or out of range Logic checks Status verification using independent data Data analysis Milestone (examples) Data source Analysis Cessation of all polio outbreaks with onset in 2009 Single sources, known & available Easy 100% of WPV importations and cvdpvs in previously polio-free areas responded to per international Multiple sources required, sources and availability to be outbreak response guidelines determined * Non-polio AFP rate >2 achieved at subnational level Multiple sources required, sources known, availability to be in all endemic, re-established transmission and 'WPV determined ** importation belt' countries. Moderate More difficult * Requires the following data sources: importations (based on virology), cvdpv data (different reporting than used for wild polioviruses), & knowledge of the events following the outbreak (unstructured data) ** Requires the following data sources: AFP data source for several countries, population data at the state/prov. level, & current tables specifying the countries changing status Summary Independent milestone monitoring to answer 3 questions: 1. Are data valid? 2. Are milestones on-track & consistent with epi data? 3. Are appropriate mid-course corrections being implemented? Reports generated: Every 6 months Interim reports as needed

6 Questions for SAGE How and when should we share our findings with SAGE? 6 month reports: presentation at each SAGE meeting? electronically or teleconference in January and July? interim reports: electronically if no actionable issues? teleconference for new or unresolved issues? When can findings be shared with broader stakeholder community? same time as SAGE? when SAGE reports to DG? after SAGE reports to DG? How do we communicate with SAGE, including between meetings? SAGE focal point? SAGE secretariat? For milestones not on-track, should TAG chairs and/or program managers report on mid-course corrections at the next SAGE?