Decision Support System for Critical Infrastructure Protection

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Decision Support System for Critical Infrastructure Protection Vittorio Rosato vittorio.

1 Decision Support System for Critical Infrastructure Protection Vittorio Rosato ERNCIP Pre-Conference Special Session 2 nd ERNCIP Conference, Brussels April 15,

2 Agenda CIP main issues The CIPRNet agenda A VCCC turning into EISAC A new Decision Support System Conclusions FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 2

3 CIP : Main issues Critical Infrastructures form, nowadays, a fully entangled system of technological systems Functional dependencies might produce open (or even closed) loops involving multiple CI FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 3

4 CIP : Main issues Functional dependencies are like interaction forces among particles: their strength determines perturbation responses (linear, non linear, highly non linear) and characteristic times. FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 4

The CIPRNet Agenda Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience Research Network is a FP7 funded project (1.3.20

5 The CIPRNet Agenda Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience Research Network is a FP7 funded project ( ) The CIPRNetwork will provide concrete and long-lasting support from the CIP research communities to the initial audience, enhancing their preparedness for CI-related emergencies, and provide knowledge and technology to other stakeholders for improving the understanding and mitigation of the consequences of CI disruptions, leading to an enhanced resilience of CI. FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 5

6 The CIPRNet Agenda Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience Research Network is a FP7 funded project ( ) The CIPRNetwork will provide concrete and long-lasting support from the CIP research communities to the initial audience, enhancing their preparedness for CI-related emergencies, and provide knowledge and technology to other stakeholders for improving the understanding and mitigation of the consequences of CI disruptions, leading to an enhanced resilience of CI. FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 6

7 The CIPRNet Agenda Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience Research Network is a FP7 funded project ( ) The CIPRNetwork will provide concrete and long-lasting support from the CIP research communities to the initial audience, enhancing their preparedness for CI-related emergencies, and provide knowledge and technology to other stakeholders for improving the understanding and mitigation of the consequences of CI disruptions, leading to an enhanced resilience of CI. FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 7

8 FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 8

9 FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 9

10 03-Aug FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 10

Turning VCCC into EISAC European Infrastructures Simulation and Analysis Centre CIPRNet

Association for fostering EISAC Subsequent founding of EISAC Nodes EISAC 2013 2017 2020

to firstly producing, validating and integrating the tools developed within CIPRNet.

11 Turning VCCC into EISAC European Infrastructures Simulation and Analysis Centre CIPRNet Virtual Centre of Competence and expertise in CIP fostering EISAC EISAC Italy Association for fostering EISAC Subsequent founding of EISAC Nodes EISAC The concept of a Virtual Centre of Competence on Critical infrastructures will be used to firstly producing, validating and integrating the tools developed within CIPRNet. Then VCCC will be transformed into a durable endeavour: EISAC FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 11

12 A new Decision Support System FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 12

13 DSS architecture Risk Assessment Workflow Manager B1: monitoring external phenomena Service Manager. Persistence Layer B2: prediction of event manifestations B1- Monitoring of Natural phenomena B3: transforming events into Damages GIS Interface Impact Reporting Interface Consequence Reporting Interface B2 - Prediction of Natural disasters and Event Detection B3 - Prediction of physical harm scenarios B4 - Estimation of impacts and consequences B5 - Support of efficient strategies for crisis scenarios Simulation Manager Information Sharing and Collaboration Module Security Data Access Manager B4: estimating Impacts and Consequences resulting from expected Damages B5: Reporting, identification of supporting strategies, alerts FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 13

14 DataBase: Contents CI GIS data: Electrical (Transmission & Distribution), Telecommunication, Gas, Roads, Railways (Water to be achieved) Geophysical data: geo-seismic vulnerability, landslide risk, geo-lithological data, DEM, Corine Land cover, hydrological risk Nowcasting (<90min),weather forecast (<72h), ashes (from Seviri sat), lightning prediction (<60min) Census parcels (population distribution), PoI (TeleAtlas), Buildings Vulnerability Maps Historical data: climate data (< 5years), Landslide Inventory (<20 years), daily rainfalls (5 years) Road traffic & traffic predictions (<90min), Real time traffic data (ADS-B 1090 MHz aerials data) FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 14

15 DSS: Data and predictions Lightning prediction Real Time flights tracker (ADS-B signal at 1090 MHz) Precipitation map Earthquakes of the day Earthquakes (historical Landslide Risk events) 03-Aug FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 15

16 Ash plume from volcanos Data provided by INGV Analysis from MODIS and SEVIRI satellites WP7 DSS: new Data and predictions FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 16

17 B3: Damages estimate When an event strikes an area, a Crisis Manager faces Damages created by natural events. Damages produce 2 types of Consequences: (1) Direct Consequences (1OC, 1 st Order Consequences): primary effects produced Damages to by CI elements natural damages to buildings and estimated related casualties manifestations on assets and citizens. Mostly related to Civil Protection analysis. damages to industrial plants and estimated related casualties (2) Indirect Consequences (2OC, 2 nd Order Consequences): effects inferred to assets and citizens via damages to roads, railways and estimated related losses in mobility the damages produced on CI systems, resulting in a reduction (or loss) of their functionalities. Hospitals) damages to industrial plants and estimated related GDP losses Expected flooded areas and number of involved citizens flooded areas and estimated related GDP losses Impacts (loss of Service) to Power and telco systems Cascading effects to other CI and to some Essential Services (e.g. Consequences on 4 Criteria Citizens Primary Services Economical Environment FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 17

18 B3: Vunerability analysis The Damages estimation block transforms the predicted Events (with their predicted Strength) in Damages to CI elements and, wherever possible, to other types of assets (Buildings, Plants etc.) The list of Events which will be monitored and whose effects will be transformed into Damages are the following: Earthquakes Abundant rainfalls Heat/Cold temperatures waves Strong Winds Lightening Heavy snowfall Ice Landslide Flash flood Flooding Mud flows Debris avalanches Storm surges FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 18

19 FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 19

B3 Vunerability analysis: earthquakes There are validated literature approaches connecting building characteristics (age, #floors, type of contruction

20 B3 Vunerability analysis: earthquakes There are validated literature approaches connecting building characteristics (age, #floors, type of contruction etc.) with intrinsic vulnerability to ground-produced strains. F d = fragility index I mcs = macroseismic intensity FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 20

21 B3: Damages estimate after an earthquake After a seismic event, the DSS evaluates (1) Shake maps (2) Fragility indices of the wounded area (buildings, roads, bridges, railways, etc.) (3) Damages received by using fragility curves (for both real earthquakes and for synthetic ones) FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 21

22 B4 Impact analysis in progress Impact Analysis is the transformation of expected Damages into subsequent reductions (or losses) of Services supplied by CI, either those hit by damages and those hit via cascading (or dependency) mechanisms. Tight connections produce dynamic responses characterized by high frequencies (small characteristic times) while loose couplings produce low frequencies (and higher characteristic times) Electrical and Telecommunication systems seem to be the mostly tightly coupled infrastructures: thus their interaction takes place in a time scale much shorter than that pertaining to other systems. FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 22

23 B3 Impact analysis in progress DAMAGES (DSS B3 output) Impact Analysis has been split into two different modules: 1. An Electrical-Telecom interaction system, Power Grid where eventual Damages occurring to one (or both) of Critical Cells CI dependencies CIPRNet (Scenario) DB these systems Power are Grid analysed Configuration and Impacts assessed. Time scale: from a few minutes to less than hours 2. An interaction scheme linking all other CI and connected to the Electrical-Telecom interaction system I2SIM Model Generator Time scale: > 1 hour Electrical Internal Dependencies Module xml Simulation of electrical internal dependencies. OUTPUT: Primary Substations and Secondary Substations power output profiles XML I2SIM Engine R(T i,ci j x ) = Pr(T i )V(CI j x,t i )I(CI j x ) FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 23

24 B3 Impact analysis the Power-Telco Engine (in progress) Due to the involvement in the crisis of a Telco BTS that is supplied by an Electrical Cabin involved in the outage, a part of the expected telecontrolling system will not be available to the Electrical Operator and thus part of the foreseen restoration actions cannot be performed remotely. FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 24

25 B3 Impact analysis the Power Telco Engine (in progress) Faulted by direct Damages Faulted by consequent line opening by safety breakers Nr. of faulted substations Operators DSS in place Correct level of possible restoration considering dependency effects Erroneous Level of possible restoration without considering dependency effects FP7 NoE time CIPRNet (min.) GA N Review 1 25

26 B3 Impact analysis the (inter)dependency evaluation module FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 26

27 B3 Impact Analysis Final outcomes Each system will be characterised by a final availability function Q k (t) These functions will be transformed (or weighted) into Consequences with respect to several Criteria in the Consequences Analysis module FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 27

B4 Consequences (in progress) How to measure Consequences? Consequence is defined as the loss of Wealth of a specific societal domain (Criterion).

28 B4 Consequences (in progress) How to measure Consequences? Consequence is defined as the loss of Wealth of a specific societal domain (Criterion). In the case of 2OC, the loss of Wealth is produced by the loss of available Primary Services: Electricity Telecommunications Water Gas and other energetic products Transportations (train, cars) The effects of reduction (or loss) of one (or more) Primary Service will be estimated on several societal Elements (Criteria) FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 28

29 B4 Consequences (in progress) Wealth can be expressed in different terms, as a function of the chosen Criterion. Assume the W(t ij ) is the Wealth of the Criterion t ij It can be described in terms of a Metrics M(t ij ) providing the optimal value of some property ensuring the achievement of the Wealth The Wealth achievement can be related to the availability of specific assets (International Wealth Index [1]) or to the availability of Primary Services. Our model considers the Q k as the Primary Services availability and r k (t ij ) the relevance of Service k for the Wealth achievement of the specific Criterion t ij. [1] (Nijmegen Center for Economics, Institute for Management Research) FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 29

B4 Service Access Wealth (in progress) Starting from Q k (t) (the expected output of Impact Analysis defining the reduction or the loss of Services), the DSS estimates the resulting loss of Wealth,

30 B4 Service Access Wealth (in progress) Starting from Q k (t) (the expected output of Impact Analysis defining the reduction or the loss of Services), the DSS estimates the resulting loss of Wealth, produced in the different Criteria by the unavailability of specific Services. We thus define r k we called SAW (Services Access Wealth) Indices, measuring the relevance on the wellbeing produced by the unavailability of certain Services They are different from one Criterion to another (electricity could be more relevant for Wealth achievement for old-age or ill people than for young or normal people) FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 30

31 B4 Service Access Wealth (in progress) SAW indices can be inferred from economical and social data, usually produced by Census and demographic polls by national Statistical Agencies. Results of Consequences Analysis consist in a Consequences Vector assessing, for each provided Criterion, the extent (i.e. the weight) that the Crisis Scenario will produce. Consequences will be expressed in different metrics (GDP lost, #affected people for classes of ages and needs, hours lost in public services, land surface affected by problems etc.). Consequences will NOT be merged and transformed into an unique score, to keep alive the Consequences amounts in the different Criteria (i.e. social Consequences will not be confused with economical losses) FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 31

B5 Support strategies In particular cases, the DSS will provide

PhotoVoltaic production Resources optimization: # CI elements to

Tracking of technical resources on the field: path optimization by

32 B5 Support strategies In particular cases, the DSS will provide indications on strategies to cope with the Crisis Prediction of PhotoVoltaic production Resources optimization: # CI elements to be restored F smaller than the available Resources R (F> or >> R) Tracking of technical resources on the field: path optimization by considering traffic jams 03-Aug FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 32

33 Conclusions CIPRNet is going to achieve its main objectives From the technical point of view, the realization of a new Decision Support System which, providing also a Consequences Analysis of predicted Crises Scenarios, will be able to increase awareness and preparedness, also enabling the set up of mitigation and healing strategies prior of the Events. The DSS, other than being used in an operational mode (i.e. 24/7 starting from real events predictions) will be used in an on-demand mode by Producing synthetic Events (earthquakes, abundant rainfalls, heat and cold waves) for stress testing infrastructures and to enhancing preparatory actions Producing syntethic Damages (punctual random faults of specific CI elements, end-user choice) for stress testing and producing attack scenarios Producing guessed mitigation and/or healing strategies and analysing (in a What-if mode) the subsequent course of events FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 33

Conclusions From the institutional point of view, CIPRNet has generated a further project, funded by italian Ministry of University, Education and Research (MIUR).

34 Conclusions From the institutional point of view, CIPRNet has generated a further project, funded by italian Ministry of University, Education and Research (MIUR). This project (RoMA Resilience enhancement of a Metropolitan Area) will attempt to consolidate and deploy, at the City scale, the DSS and other further technologies (purposely developed) The RoMA project will continue the institutional design of I-EISAC by enhancing collaborations and commitment by The Presidency of the Council of Ministers The Department of Civil Protection The National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) CI operators and stakeholders Other institutions of the Ministry of Interiors (Fire Brigades, Regional and Local implementation of Civil Protections, City Security Offices) FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 34

35 Future events CRITIS ( TIEMS ( Lectures at UCBM Master in Homeland Security ( FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 35

36 Thanks for the attention FP7 NoE CIPRNet GA N Review 1 36

From Hazard and Risk Assessment to Superior Resiliency

From Hazard and Risk Assessment to Superior Resiliency Dr. Patricia Ryan Director of Aviation IOS Partners, Inc. September 27, 2017 1 Hazards of Greatest Interest for St. Vincent s Today Hurricanes Flooding