Placebo-Controlled Statin Trials EXPLAINING THE DECREASE IN DEATHS FROM CHD! PREVENTION OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE IN WOMEN EXPLAINING THE DECREASE IN

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1 PREVENTION OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE IN WOMEN Robert B. Baron MD MS Professor and Associate Dean UCSF School of Medicine Declaration of full disclosure: No conflict of interest EXPLAINING THE DECREASE IN DEATHS FROM CHD! 1980 to 2000: Death rate fell from: to per 100K men to per 100K women 341,745 fewer deaths from CHD in 2000 Ford ES, NEJM, 2007 EXPLAINING THE DECREASE IN DEATHS FROM CHD! Placebo-Controlled Statin Trials 47% from CHD treatments, 44% from risk factor modification Reductions in cholesterol: 24% Ford ES, NEJM, 2007 simva mg prava 40 mg prava 40 mg simva 40 mg prava 40 mg lova 80 mg

2 Placebo-Controlled Statin Trials Celebrating Successes but Forgetting the Majority? A RISK-BASED APPROACH! Risk reduction $$ Harm The benefit from any given intervention is a function of:!!1) The relative risk reduction conferred by the!!!intervention, and!!2) The native risk of the patient! simva mg prava 40 mg prava 40 mg simva 40 mg prava 40 mg lova 80 mg Prevention Of CVD in Women! Overwhelming majority of recommendations are the same for women and for men Aspirin use is a notable exception But there may be gender differences in the magnitude of the relative and absolute potential benefits A 40 year old woman, in good health. In for annual wellness visit. BMI, BP, diet and exercise all at ideal. What blood tests will you order to screen her for a lipid disorder?! 1. Total cholesterol 2. LDL cholesterol and HDL cholesterol 3. LDL, HDL, and hs-crp 4. LDL, HDL, hs-crp, and Lp(a) 5. No screening blood tests for lipids Mosca, Circulation 2011

3 USPSTF: Screening Recommendations Men: age 35 and older, regardless of risk level age 20 to 35, at increased risk Women: age 20 and older at increased risk If not at increased risk, no recommendation (I) ACC/AHA Screening All adults age 21. Increased Risk: tobacco use, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and family history of premature CV disease. USPSTF Stone, Circulation 2013 ACC/AHA CVD Risk: Ideal All of These! Total cholesterol <200 mg/dl (untreated) A 40 year women, in good health. In for annual wellness visit. BMI, diet and exercise all at ideal. What blood tests will you order to screen her for a lipid disorder?! BP <120/<80 mm Hg (untreated) Fasting blood glucose <100 mg/dl (untreated) Body mass index <25 kg/m2 Abstinence from smoking Physical activity at goal for adults >20 y of age: 150 min/ wk moderate intensity, 75 min/wk vigorous intensity, or combination 1. Total cholesterol 2. LDL cholesterol and HDL cholesterol 3. LDL, HDL, and hs-crp 4. LDL, HDL, hs-crp, and LP(a) 5. No screening blood tests for lipids Healthy (DASH-like) diet Mosca, Circulation 2011

4 A 40 year old woman, in good health. Which of the following is the most effective intervention for primary prevention of CVD?! 1. Aspirin 2. Folic acid 3. Estrogen 4. Vitamin E, C and beta carotene 5. Oily fish twice per week 6. All are effective 7. None are effective Ineffective Interventions in Women ACC/AHA 2011! Hormone therapy should not be used for the primary or secondary prevention of CVD (Evidence A). Antioxidant vitamin supplements (eg, vitamin E, C, and beta carotene) should not be used for the primary or secondary prevention of CVD (Evidence A). Folic Acid, with or without B6 and B12 supplementation, should not be used for the primary or secondary prevention of CVD (Evidence A). Routine use of aspirin in healthy women <65 years of age is not recommended to prevent MI (Evidence B) Omega 3 Fatty Acids: Meta-analysis! 48 RCTs of 36,913 participants; 41 cohort trials No significant effect of omega 3 fats on mortality, CV events, or cancer Analysis of diet only trials: also no benefit No reason to advise people to stop rich sources of omega 3 fats, but better trials needed ORIGEN Trial! RCT, 12,537 subjects; impaired FBS, IGT, or new diabetes, and high CV risk 900 mg n-3 fatty acids vs. placebo; 6.2 years Results: No difference in CV outcomes 9.1% vs. 9.3% (p=0.72) Cochrane Library, 2009 ORIGEN, NEJM, 2012

5 Risk and Prevention Trial! 12,513 patients at high risk for CVD 1 gram daily omega-3 for 5 years Results: No reduction in death or CVD events A 40 year women, in good health. Which of the following is the most effective intervention for primary prevention of CVD?! 1. Aspirin 2. Folic acid 3. Estrogen 4. Vitamin E, C and beta carotene 5. Oily fish twice per week 6. All are effective 7. None are effective NEJM, May ACC/AHA Guidelines What is New?! Heart Protection Study: Vascular Events by Baseline LDL-C! 4 groups of patients who benefit from statins Identifies high and moderate intensity statins No LDL treatment targets Non-statin therapies no not provide acceptable risk reduction Estimate 10-year ASCVD risk with new equation Treatment in other patients may be informed by other factors Stone, Circulation 2013 Baseline Feature LDL (mg/dl) < < ALL PATIENTS No. Events Statin Placebo Risk Ratio and 95% Cl (10,269) (10,267) Statin better Statin worse (19.9%) (25.4%) % reduction (p< )

6 TREATING TO NEW TARGETS (TNT)! TREATING TO NEW TARGETS (TNT)! RCT of 10,001 patients with stable CHD; yr LDL <130 mg/dl Atorvastatin 10 vs atorvastain 80 Followed for 4.9 years Research question: safety and efficacy of lowering LDL below 100 mg/dl LDL Event % Death % LFTs % Atorv Atorv p value < Larosa NEJM, ACC/AHA Guidelines Four Groups of Patients Who Benefit From Statins! 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines What Statin for Each Group?! Individuals with clinical ASCVD Individuals with primary elevations of LDL 190 Individuals with diabetes and LDL over 70 Individuals without ASCVD or diabetes, 40-75, with LDL over 70, and 10 year risk 7.5% or higher Individuals with clinical ASCVD: Treat with: high intensity statin, or moderate intensity statin if > age 75 Individuals with primary elevations of LDL 190: Treat with: high intensity statin Stone, Circulation 2013 Stone, Circulation 2013

7 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines What Statin for Each Group?! Individuals with diabetes and LDL over 70: Treat with: moderate intensity statin, or high intensity statin if risk over 7.5% Individuals without ASCVD or diabetes, 40-75, with LDL over 70, and 10 year risk 7.5% or higher: Treat with: moderate-to-high intensity statin Stone, Circulation ACC/AHA Guidelines High Intensity vs. Moderate Intensity Statin! High Intensity: lowers LDL by >50% Atorvastatin Rosuvastatin Moderate Intensity: lowers LDL by 30-50% Atorvastatin Rosuvastatin 5 10 Simvastatin Pravastatin Lovastatin 40 Stone, Circulation yo woman; s/p MI LDL 115 HDL 45 TG yo woman; s/p MI LDL 3.0 SI HDL 1.2 SI TG 4.1 SI mg/dl / = SI (mmol/l)

8 The best next step in lipid management is:! The best next step in lipid management is:! 1. Atorvastatin 40 mg 2. Rosuvastatin 10 mg 3. Pravastatin 40 mg 4. Simvastatin 40 mg 5. Lovastatin 40 mg 6. Whatever works to get her LDL below 70 mg/dl 1. Atorvastatin 40 mg 2. Rosuvastatin 10 mg 3. Pravastatin 40 mg 4. Simvastatin 40 mg 5. Lovastatin 40 mg 6. Whatever works to get her LDL below 70 mg/dl 63 yo woman; s/p MI. On atorvastatin 80. The best next step in lipid management is:! LDL 95 HDL 40 TG Continue current therapy 2. Switch to rosuvastatin 40 mg 3. Add fenofibrate 4. Add fish oil 5. Add niacin 6. Add ezetimibe

9 Effects of Fibrates on Cardiovascular Outcomes! 4 Recent meta-analyses 18 RCTs, 45,000 patients Outcome Fibrate vs. Placebo and CVD Risk! Non-fatal coronary events Relative Risk 95% CI P Value < Total stroke Cardiovascular death All-cause mortality Jun et al. The Lancet 2010 Fenofibrate plus statin vs. statin alone: ACCORD! RCT of 5518 patients with type 2 DM Fenofibrate Placebo p CV events: Death No difference in any secondary outcome NIACIN META-ANALYSIS OF RCTS! 11 RCTS Coronary Drug Project (1970s) only large RCT Others very small Results do not support routine use of combination therapy in DM ACCORD, NEJM 2010 Brukert, Atherosclerosis 2010

10 Niacin Meta-Analysis: Summary of Results for Cardiovascular Events! Publication bias? AIM-HIGH Trial! RCT of 3,414 patients with established CVD Simvastatin (or simvastatin + ezetimibe) to keep LDL at mg/dl (mean 71). 27% lower risk of CVD events HDL 35 mg/dl, TG 161 mg/dl Randomized to receive sustained-release niacin or placebo Bruckert, Atherosclerosis Brukert, Atherosclerosis 2010 NEJM, 2011 AIM-HIGH Trial! Results: Study stopped early No reduction in cardiovascular events, MI and stroke Increase risk in ischemic stroke (28 vs 12) Extended-release Niacin vs. Ezetimibe! RCT of 208 patients with CHD or CHD riskequivalent on statin at goal LDL Niacin 2000 vs Ezetimibe 10 Outcome: carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) Results: Niacin better Reduction in IMT Major cardiovascular events, 1% vs 5% NEJM, 2011 Taylor NEJM, 2009

11 Summary Lipid-Lowering Drugs! Statins are treatment of choice based on RCT to decrease risk No evidence to support adding niacin or fibrates to statins If completely statin-intolerant, niacin may reduce CVD risk (weak evidence) Fibrates appear to lower MI risk, but no other CVD endpoints The best next step in lipid management is:! 1. Continue current therapy 2. Switch to rosuvastatin 40 mg 3. Add fenofibrate 4. Add fish oil 5. Add niacin 6. Add ezetimibe Ezetimibe: just say no 63 yo woman, no risk factors LDL 155 HDL 55 TG 160 SBP 120 Nonsmoker The best next step in lipid management is:! 1. Continue current therapy (no meds) 2. Begin atorvastatin Begin atorvastatin Begin fenofibrate 5. Begin a simvastatin plus ezetimibe 6. Calculate 10-year risk

12 How Best To Calculate 10 Year Risk?! Pooled Cohort Risk Assessment Equations: hard CHD events and stroke StatementsGuidelines/PreventionGuidelines/Prevention- Guidelines_UCM_457698_SubHomePage.jsp Practice-Guidelines-and-Quality-Standards/2013- Prevention-Guideline-Tools.aspx Pooled Cohort Risk Assessment Equations! Age Gender Total cholesterol (170 mg/dl) HDL cholesterol (50 mg/dl) Systolic BP (110 mmhg No med for BP No DM No cigs Do the Pooled Cohort Risk Assessment Equations Overestimate Risk?! 63 yo woman, no risks LDL 155 HDL 55 TG 160 SBP 120 Nonsmoker 10 yr risk: 4.5% Therefore no medication recommended Ridker PM, Cook NR, Lancet Nov 19, 2013

13 The best next step in lipid management is:! Prevention of CVD Risk in Women: Aspirin! Aspirin ( mg/d) in women with CHD unless contraindicated (Evidence A). 1. Continue current therapy (no meds) 2. Begin atorvastatin Begin atorvastatin Begin fenofibrate 5. Begin a simvastatin plus ezetimibe 6. Calculate 10-year risk Aspirin in women >65 y of age (81 mg daily) if benefit for ischemic stroke and MI prevention is likely to outweigh risk of GI bleed and hemorrhagic stroke (Class IIa; Evidence B) Aspirin may be reasonable for women <65 y of age for ischemic stroke prevention (Class IIb; Level of Evidence B). Mosca, Circulation 2011 NSAIDs and CVD! Meta-analysis. 31 RCTs, 116, 429 patients MI: No increase naproxen, diclofenac Ibuprofen 1.61; celecoxib 1.35 Stroke: All drugs increased Naproxen 1.76, Ibuprofen 3.36, Diclofenac 2.86 CV death: No increase naproxen Ibuprofen 2.39, diclofenac 3.98, celecoxib 2.07 NSAIDS and CVD! Danish national study, 97,698 patients with prior MI. 44% received NSAIDS. NSAIDS associated with 42% increase in CV death (CI ) Diclofenac 96% and rofecoxib 66% increase Total death: All drugs increased Naproxen 1.23, Ibuprofen 1.77, Diclofenac 2.31, celecoxib 1.50 Ibuprofen 34% and naproxen 27% increase Trelle S. BMJ 2011 Schjerning A-M, PLoS One, 2013

14 Competing Risks! Conclusions I! Example: women with 10-year risk 10% Reduce risk by 30% with statins. Risk now 7%. Add NSAID. Increase risk by 50% Total risk now back to 10%. Statins are effective and cost effective Screen women at increased risk at age 20. Avoid antioxidants, B vitamins, fish oil supplements Recommend aspirin for high risk women (mostly those over age 65) Conclusions II! Conclusions III! Use statins in women with ASCVD, LDL 190 and diabetes For those without ASCVD and Diabetes, calculate 10 year risk (how best uncertain), and treat those with risk greater than 7.5% (maybe 10%). Use shared decision making. Use appropriate intensity statin (high and moderate) Monitor adherence, but do not treat to specific LDL goal Do not treat with other lipid-modifying drugs in addition to statins (but may need if truly statin intolerant) Avoid other factors that raise risk as much as statin lower it (i.e. NSAIDS)

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