Vodič za klijente. Devizni kurs?
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1 Vodič za klijente Devizni kurs?
2 SADRŽAJ Uvod...3 Srednji kurs... 6 Kursna lista... 7 Tržišni kurs... 9 Terminski kurs...10 Faktori...11 Analiza kretanja kurseva...12
3 UVOD Cijena devize kao robe na deviznom tržištu naziva se devizni kurs. Devizni kurs predstavlja vrijednost jedne valute izraženu u jedinicama druge valute. Oznaka valute sastoji se iz tri slova. EUR USD GBP CHF Euro Američki Britanska Švajcarski dolar funta franak
4 UVOD Kotirana valuta / Bazna valuta (quoted currency, base currency) u postavci kursa stoji uvijek na prvom mjestu i odnosi se na jednu jedinicu valute. Kotirajuća valuta / Varijabilna valuta (quoting currency, variable currency) u postavci kursa stoji uvijek na drugom mjestu i pokazuje koliko se njenih jedinica mijenja za jednu jedinicu kotirane valute.
5 UVOD INVERZNI PRIKAZ 1 JEDINICA BAZNE VALUTE / X JEDINICA VARIJABILNE VALUTE 1 EUR / 1,2464 USD 1 EUR / 0,8880 GBP 1 EUR / 1,1521 CHF 1 JEDINICA BAZNE VALUTE / X JEDINICA VARIJABILNE VALUTE 1 USD / 0, EUR 1 GBP / 1, EUR 1 CHF / 0, EUR
6 SREDNJI KURS SREDNJI KURS EURA prema ostalim valutama određuje Centralna banka Crne Gore (CBCG), na osnovu liste sa kursevima koju objavi Evropska centralna banka (ECB). KURSNA LISTA sa pregledom svih kurseva se objavljuje na sajtu CBCG na kraju radnog dana, oko 16h, pri čemu važi tj. primjenjuje se sljedećeg radnog dana. Erste banka AD na u sekciji Alati objavljuje kursnu listu nakon što je ista objavljena na sajtovima ECB i CBCG.
7 KURSNA LISTA PRODAJNI I KUPOVNI KURS u kursnoj listi Banka određuje primjenom margina na prethodno definisan srednji kurs od strane ECB i CBCG. Prodajni i kupovni kursevi predstavljaju granice u okviru kojih se banka mora kretati prilikom prodaje/otkupa deviza. PRODAJNI KURS se određuje prilikom prodaje stranih valuta klijentima. Erste Bank AD Podgorica obavlja poslove kupoprodaje / konverzije sa tri najtrgovanije strane valute: Američki dolar (USD) Britanska funta (GBP) Švajcarski franak (CHF) KUPOVNI KURS se određuje prilikom otkupa stranih valuta od klijenata.
8 KUPOVNI I PRODAJNI KURS Kupovni kurs (Bid) pokazuje koliko jedinica jedne valute Banka daje kada od klijenta otkupljuje drugu valutu. Kupovni 0,786 EUR Prodajni 1,000 USD Prodajni kurs (Ask) pokazuje koliko jednica jedne valute Banka traži kada klijentu prodaje drugu valutu. USD / EUR Kupovni Srednji Prodajni 0,786 0,802 0,818 1,000 USD 0,818 EUR Klijent banci prodaje USD Klijent od banke kupuje USD
9 TRŽIŠNI KURS TRŽIŠNI KURS EURA prema ostalim valutama predstavlja trenutni odnos na međunarodnom međubankarskom tržištu i formira se slobodno na osnovu ponude i tražnje. Tržišni i srednji kurs su međusobno povezani jer tržišni predstavlja odnos trenutne situacije, dok srednji predstavlja istorijsku kategoriju, tj. prosječno stanje tržišnih kurseva realizovanih transakcija prethodnog dana.
10 TERMINSKI KURS Terminski devizni kurs ili forward kurs je kurs po kome se obavlja terminska kupoprodaja deviza, odnosno to je unaprijed utvrđen kurs između dvije strane za kupoprodaju deviza na neki budući dan. Terminski kurs nije projekcija budućeg deviznog kursa, već predstavlja obračunsku kategoriju i određuje se na osnovu tekućeg kursa i kamatnih stopa koje važe na novčanom tržištu, a po kojima se valute mogu plasirati/pozajmiti da bi bile raspoložive na budući datum.
11 FAKTORI TRŽIŠNI DEVIZNI KURSEVI se formiraju na osnovu ponude i tražnje deviza na koje utiču brojni faktori sa različitih tržišta. Na visinu Ponude i Tražnje za devizama utiču brojni faktori među kojima se posebno izdvajaju: EKONOMSKI: BDP, platni bilans, inflacija, nezaposlenost, kamatne stope... OKRUŽENJE: Klima, prirodne katastrofe, ratovi, demografska kretanja... POLITIČKI: Izbori, stabilnost vlade, vladajuća struktura... POSLOVNI AMBIJENT: Centralna banka, poslovne banke, investicije, kompanije...
12 ANALIZA KRETANJA KURSEVA Radi analize kretanja kurseva stručnjaci koriste različite metodologije i alate, kao i njihovu kombinaciju uz pomoć kojih su u većoj ili manjoj mjeri uspješni u ovom kompleksnom poduhvatu. S obzirom na raznovrsnost i složenost faktora koji utiču na kretanje deviznog kursa, tačnu prognozu o budućoj vrijednosti kursa nije moguće dati. Analitičari najčešće kombinuju dva tipa analiza: FUNDAMENTALNA I TEHNIČKA analiza. FUNDAMENTALNA ANALIZA Fundamentalna analiza se zasniva na analizi finansijskih pokazatelja i makroekonomskih indikatora stanja ekonomije. Vrijednost kursa se predviđa na bazi vijesti, najava i ekonomskih pokazatelja. TEHNIČKA ANALIZA Tehnička analiza se zasniva na analizi istorijskih kretanja vrijednosti kursa, s ciljem predviđanja budućih trendova i fokusira se na analizu grafikona.
13 KUPUJTE I PRODAJTE DEVIZE PO NAJPOVOLJNIJIM USLOVIMA Obezbijedite povoljne uslove kupoprodaje deviza, bilo da ste fizičko ili pravno lice Iskoristite mogućnost kupoprodaje deviza po tekućim tržišnim uslovima Na raspolaganju su vam najtrgovanije svjetske valute (USD, GBP, CHF) Erste Bank AD Podgorica Sektor riznice treasury@erstebank.me phone: +382 (0)
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