Research Article Study on Food Safety Risk Pre-warning Based on Set-valued Statistics

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1 Advace Joural of Food Sciece ad Techology 04: , 206 DOI: /ajfst ISSN: ; e-issn: Maxwell Scietific Publicatio Corp. Submitted: Jauary 25, 205 Accepted: February 22, 205 Published: February 05, 206 Research Article Study o Food Safety Risk Pre-warig Based o Set-valued Statistics iu Yaqig College of Comprehesive Foudatio Studies, iaoig Uiversity, Sheyag iaoig 0036, Chia Abstract: Food safety problem happes frequetly i recet years, it is ecessary to pre-warig the food safety risk, therefore the set-valued statistics model is applied i it. Firstly, research progress of food safety pre-warig system at home ad abroad is summarized. Secodly, the theory model of set-valued Statistics is studied; thirdly, the structure of food safety risk pre-warig system is desiged; the the correspodig pre-warig aalysis steps of food safety risk based o set-valued statistics. Fially, the applicatio of set-valued statistics model o food safety pre-warig is carried out, results show that the set-valued statistics method is a effective for aalyzig the food safety problem. Keywords: Food safety, pre-warig, set-valued statistics INTRODUCTION I recet years, the food safety problem raises red flags costatly, the occurrece with high frequecy ad fataless of it make strategic decisio makers cocer the early pre-warig of food safety problem based o predictio techology. The research o the food safety maily cocered o moitorig techology ad supervisio system of food safety ad igored the early pre-warig of food safety risk Wag ad Che, 204. Therefore it is ecessary to carry out effective moitorig. A advaced pre-warig techology should be foud out for iovatig the workig mechaism of food safety risk moitorig ad improvig the level of food safety risk moitorig. I order to reduce ad prevet the occurrece of food safety risk, the pre-warig model of food safety risk should be costructed, the probability ad seriousess of food safety risk ca be measured, the probability ad degree of occurrece of food safety problem ca be evaluated, the hidde dager ca be fid out, the effective measuremet ca be put forward, the early pre-warig mechaism of food safety risk ca be established. The set-valued statistics method is put forward by Prof. Wag Pei-Zhuag, i classic Probability ad statistics, every test ca oly get a certai poit i phase space, if this coditio is relaxed, the every test ca get a fuzzy sub set i phase, this kid of test is setvalued statistics test i ad Fa, 203. The set-valued statistics is the extesio of classic ad fuzzy statistics ad that is expert gives a iterval evaluatig value for a evaluatig idex, this statistics method offers a ew quatitative method for evaluatig food safety problem. RESEARCH PROGRESS OF FOOD SAFETY PRE-WARNING SYSTEM AT HOME AND ABROAD I recet years, may coutries have carried out food safety pre-warig research ad some excellet achievemets have bee obtaied. Europea Uio established the rapid alert system for food ad feed, this system coected with food ad feed safety admiistrator of every coutry, Europea Commissio health ad cosumer protectio Admiistratio, Europea Free Trade Uio ad Europea Food Safety Authority, the members of the system has cotactig poit ad ca cotact each other, the a smooth etwork system is formed. Whe food ad feed with risk appears o the market, the correspodig actio should be take. The member coutry issued prewarig that moitored the relatig situatios ad took measuremets. This problem ca be iformed to other coutries ad the they ispected the same problem i their jurisdictioal limits. America food safety supervisio is resposible by Uited States Departmet of Agriculture ad FDA, the Departmet of Agriculture is resposible for meat, poultry ad eggs ad FDA moitored the other food. FDA ca collect food safety iformatio based o may Multi group chaels, FDA ca issue safety alerts ad advisories, publish recall iformatio ad sed out warig letters ad utitled letters. At same time, i Chia the food safety prewarig researches have carried out, but the correspodig work is limited, Chia ca put the effective food safety pre-warig measuremet drawig o the experiece of Europea Uio ad America. Scietific risk evaluatio of food safety is the mai basis for risk pre-warig, the pre-warig work of Europea Uio ad America reflected the everywhere This work is licesed uder a Creative Commos Attributio 4.0 Iteratioal icese UR: 245

2 Adv. J. Food Sci. Techol., 04: , 206 scietific risk evaluatio. Accordig to degree of potetial risk, the differet pre-warig iformatio is published ad differet measuremet is take. America recalled all food that the cotet of pollutio is over the stadard ad the limit stadard is established based scietific evaluatio mechaism. The set-valued statistic is a scietific evaluatio method, which ca be applied i the food safety pre-warig model. Theory model of set-valued statistics: The iterval evaluatio for j th idex of project x i by k th expert is defied as k k [ x, x 2], the the iterval evaluatio samples of experts is defied as a set-valued statistics series, which is expressed as follows Tia et al., 203: 2 2 {[ x, x 2],[, 2] k k [, 2] x x,, x x,, [ x, x 2] } variace of set-valued Statistics samples is calculated by the followig expressio: D x x x f x dx f x dx 2 = / xmi 6 D x reflects discrete degree of evaluatio value, the less the D x is, the more uiform the advaces of the experts, the graspig degree of the idex is good. The expert evaluatio cofidece of j th idex of project x i is calculated by the followig expressio i et al., 202: θ = 7 + D METHODOOGY The itervals ca be superposed as a kid of distributio, the fuzzy coverage rate of a poit x i the iterval is expressed as follows: where, f x = F x 2 k k [ x, x 2] i = F x k k [ x, x 2] k k, x [ x, x 2] deotes = 0, other drop shadow fuctio, deotes evaluatio value of idex j of project x ca be take as expert proportio of x. The evaluatio value of set-valued statistics is expressed as follows Gil, 204: = / x mi xmi x f x x dx f x dx 3 where x mi ad x max deote possible miimum ad maximum value of idex. Accordig to the expressios ad 3, the followig expressios ca be obtaied: xmi xmi f x dx x x k k = [ 2 ] k = f x x dx x x k 2 k 2 = {[ 2] [ ] } 2 k = 4 5 The group iformatio value is sythesized from usig decisio itervals, which is a evaluatio value, the level of its reliability ca affect the fial decisio results directly, it is ecessary to aalyze the reliability of set-valued of group decisio iformatio, which ca be described by variace of f x distributio, the 246 Structure of food safety risk pre-warig system: The food safety risk pre-warig system cocludes three sub systems, which are pre-warig iformatio maagemet sub system, pre-warig aalysis sub system ad pre-warrig reflectig sub system. The prewarig iformatio maagemet sub system is resposible for maagig pre-warig coditio ad alarm iformatio published ad pre-warig object iformatio ad gives priority to guarateeig realtime. The pre-warig aalysis sub system ca aalyze the ispected iformatio of food ad obtais the results whether the food is safe or ot, which ca be used by pre-warig reflectig sub system. The prewarig reflectig sub system ca publish the alarm iformatio from pre-warig aalysis sub system to public ad law eforcemet persoel, the the correspodig measuremets ca be take early, the the loss ca be reduced. The framework of food safety risk pre-warig system is show i Fig.. Pre-warig iformatio maagemet sub system: This sub system is the basic data sources of food safety risk pre-warig system, the iput ed is the moitorig data published by every moitorig poit collected by the supervisio departmet ad the output ed is the available data iformatio, which cocludes import module, idex stadard module ad data iformatio module ü, 203. Idex stadard module cocludes stadard database of fourtee kids of food. This module ca displays atioal stadard of every kid of food moitorig idexes through choosig the classificatio of food, food microorgaisms stadard ad food additive usig stadard. The addig ad updatig fuctio of atioal stadard by supervisio departmet is provided. Data iformatio module ca set displayig fuctio of samplig time, samplig positio, sample

3 Adv. J. Food Sci. Techol., 04: , 206 Fig. : Framework of food safety risk pre-warig system classificatio searchig, data iformatio of every moitorig idex for a year, a area, a kid of food ca be displayed accordig to the ispectig data of every moitorig poit. Pre-warig aalysis sub system: This sub system is the core part of the whole system, the iput ed is the available data iformatio ad the output ed is all kids of aalysis iformatio for food safety risk. Through a large umber of data cleaig ad data screeig, the data iformatio is give to backstage to be processed. It has strog statistics ad query fuctios, the the pre-warig aim ca be achieved. Accordig to the classificatio aalysis, the statistical data cocludig all moitorig idexes of chemical idex, microbial idex of this kid of food ca be displayed through choosig the classificatio of sample, the correspodig statistical data cocludes moitorig umber, detected umber, detected rate, exceedig stadard umber ad exceedig stadard rate. The tredig aalysis diagram of food safety risk, such as bar chart, lie chart of every idex ca be give accordig to year. Pre-warrig reflectig sub system: The iput ed of this system is pre-warig aalysis iformatio ad the output ed of this system is aalysis results ad commads. The sub system ca offer basis for 247 supervisio persoel of food safety ad the safety status warig iformatio of food. This sub system ca display the samplig total umber, qualified umber ad rate. The food safety risk treds of year ad area ca be compared accordig to the qualified rate ad the the pre-warig prompt ca be obtaied. This sub system has the pre-warig sub module of expert guidace, which cocludes the food safety risk rewarig iformatio, such as food source disease, food pollutio, food poisoig ad the correspodig prewarig iformatio ca be published through cell phoe message or etwork. The the food safety risk ca be moitored ad pre-wared i real time Jiag et al., 204. PRE-WARNING ANAYSIS STEPS OF FOOD SAFETY RISK BASED ON SET-VAUED STATISTICS The set-valued statistics ca process the ucertai judgmet ad ca collect differet advises coveietly ad reduce radom error durig the processio of judgmet by expert. This evaluatio method is simple, which has strog adaptability. The correspodig steps are listed as follows: Step : Cofirmatio of idex evaluatio value: The umber of evaluatio idexes i evaluatio

4 Adv. J. Food Sci. Techol., 04: , 206 system is set as m, the correspodig collectio is expressed as U = {u, u 2,, u m }. The umber of experts eterig ito idex evaluatio is set as, the correspodig collectio is expressed as P = {p, p 2,, p }. For idex u i, the weighted value iterval cofirmed by every expert is set as [a i, b i ], [a i2, b i2 ],, [a i, b i ] respectively. For idex u i, the evaluatio iterval give by expert ca form a set-valued statistics series, the sample dropig shape fuctio ca be calculated based o expressio 2. The risk value of food safety pre-warig ca be calculated based o expressio 3. Step 2: Cofirmatio of idex system weighted value: The weighted value of every evaluatio idex ca be cofirmed through coductig several experts. The weighted value of j th expert is expressed as follows: { λ, λ,, λ } j 2 j mj If the square sum error of it is i the permitted rage, that is: m m ax[ λ λ ] ε j 8 i= j= The the followig expressio ca be obtaied: λ =,, m j λ λ 9 j j= j= Expressio 9 shows the optimal weighted coefficiet set, otherwise, the λ i with big error should be revised accordig to advices of relatig experts, this operatio is over util satisfactio. Step 3: Calculatio of risk value of food safety risk: The risk degree of food safety pre-warig is calculated based o liear weighted model, which is expressed as follows: 0 i i i= R= W F where, R = The food safety risk of up level idex W i = The weighted value of dow level idex = The evaluatio score of idex F i Applicatio of set-valued statistics model o food safety pre-warig: Accordig to the real situatio of food safety risk pre-warig i a provice, the correspodig food safety risk pre-warig idex system is established, which is show i Table. Accordig to food safety pre-warig situatio i this provice, the food safety risk level is obtaied, which is show i Table 2. Accordig to set-valued statistics model, the calculatig results of food safety risk pre-warig evaluatio idexes are show i Table 3. As see from Table 3, the score from quatitative aalysis of food safety risk pre-warig i this provice is Accordig to risk pre-warig level stadard, the risk pre-warig level of food safety risk prewarig i this provice is III level, the food safety prewarig level belogs to III level, the risk pre-warig level is high, the risk pre-warig is i the level that is difficult to be cotrolled. Accordig to evaluatio results of food safety risk pre-warig, the effective measuremet ca be take, the harm of food safety problem ca be reduced to a miimum. Table : Food safety risk pre-warig idex system First level idex Food raw material supplyig u Food producig ad processig u2 Food distributio processig u3 Food sales u4 Food safety supervisio u5 248 Secod level idex Qualified rate of raw material u Eviromet quality of raw materials producig area u2 Fertilizer stadard u3 Stadards for pesticide residues u4 Qualified rate of producig device u2 Eviromet quality of producig ad processig u22 Techical advacemet of producig ad processig u23 Product quality certificatio stadard u24 Trasparecy of food producig ad processig u25 Packagig techology stadards u3 Storage techology stadard u32 Trasport techology stadard u33 Fresh sesory recogitio degree u4 Stadard rate of food physicochemical idex u42 Defiitio of food idetificatio u43 Costructio of supervisory orgaizatio u5 Satisfactio of food market supervisio u52 Ope degree of food iformatio u53 Processig itesity of food safety problem u54

5 Adv. J. Food Sci. Techol., 04: , 206 Table 2: Food safety risk pre-warig level Risk prewarig level Name Quatitative rage I ow risk pre-warig 90, 00 II Middle risk pre-warig 70, 90 III High risk pre-warig 30, 70 IV Extreme risk pre-warig 0, 30 Table 3: Calculatig results of food safety risk pre-warig evaluatio idexes First level idex Weighted value Score Risk level Cotributio for last level u High risk 0.23 u High risk 0.56 u Middle risk.43 u Middle risk 2.54 u High risk 4.23 CONCUSION The set-valued statistics model is applied i the food safety risk pre-warig, the evaluatio idex system of food safety risk pre-warig is established accordig to real situatio i a provice. Applicatio aalysis results show that the set-valued statistics ca solve the ucertai fuzzy evaluatio problem, ca costruct the quatity mathematical model. The setvalued statistics method ca directly evaluate the extet of food safety risk pre-warig, fid out the weak part of food safety ad the food safety risk pre-warig level ca be improved. This model has wide practicability. REFERENCES Gil, M.A., 204. Commets o "statistical reasoig with set-valued iformatio: Otic vs. epistemic views". It. J. Approx. Reaso., 55: Jiag, Y.G., K. Che ad M.X. Cai, 204. A study o the pre-warig mechaism agaist bakrupt legal risk of food eterprise. WIT Tras. Ifo. Comm., 49: i, F.R. ad Z. Fa, 203. Reasearch o the applicatio of power eterprises' SCMM model based o setvalued statistics. J. North Chia Electr. Power Uiv., 40: i, S.J., X.K. Su ad J. Zhai, 202. Secod-order cotiget derivatives of set-valued mappigs with applicatio to set-valued optimizatio. Appl. Math. Comput., 28: ü, X.Y., 203. Chia's food security ad earlywarig system based o vector autoregressio VAR model. Tras. Chiese Soc. Agric. Eg., 29: Tia, Y., X.G. Peg, H.B. i ad Y.F. Zhag, 203. Set-valued statistics trustworthiess measuremet towards user behavior i etworks. J. Chiese Comput. Syst., 34: Wag, F. ad H.X. Che, 204. The pre-warig aalysis of packagig desig safety of jelly food. Adv. J. Food Sci. Techol., 6: