What we can learn from linear optimization: WFP experiences with the Cost of the Diet

Transcription

1 What we can learn from linear optimization: WFP experiences with the Cost of the Diet April 2011 The World Food Programm Nutrition & HIV / AIDS Policy Romeo Frega

2 What do I want to talk about today? What is the Minimum Cost of the Diet? How can linear optimization be useful to measure food access? How can linear optimization be useful to model different scenarios of closing the nutritional gap? What are we working on going forward? More realistic, locally adapted diet 1

3 In collaboration with SCUK, WFP has used a linear optimization tool to get more insight into access to nutritional food Inputs Linear Optimization Software Outputs Cost of foods per week in MZN BREAST MILK MAIZE, FLOUR, DRY COWPEA MANGO ONION LEAF, TOMATO PUMPKIN PLUMPY DOZ List of local foods Seasonal prices Min/Max constraints Generic portion sizes by food groups Excel Solver, linear programming Nutritional requirements by age group Aggregate food composition database Family composition (age / weights) Cost-optimal selection of foods Minimal cost of a diet covering all nutritional needs (for energy and major micronutrients) Special focus on under-2s 2

4 Min. Cost Diet is the cheapest nutritionally adequate diet any other diet is not adequately nutritious or more expensive Example of minimum cost diet for a family of 5 in Mozambique Expenditure on tood items (MZM) What is the Minimum Cost Nutritious Diet? A theoretical diet, fulfilling all nutritional needs of a specific age group at the lowest possible cost, based on local foods. This diet is theoretically possible to eat. NOT what people are actually eating, NOR what they are supposed to eat Calculations are based on linear optimization done by the Excel solver function Note: Data presented from Livelihood Zone 36 in Mozambique, based on WFP assessment in

5 How affordable is a Minimum Cost Nutritious Diet? Djibouti Example: Only 32% of HH are able to afford it! 70% of Expenditure > Minimum Cost Diet 70% of of Expenditure < Minimum Cost Diet 32 % of Households 68 % of Households Average Min. Cost Diet in Djibouti Combining the minimum cost of a nutritious diet with data on household income / expenditure in this case expenditure data from a WFP EFSA, allows us to estimate affordability of adequate nutrition Source: WFP data collection, 2010; Note: 1.00 USD = 175 Dibouti Francs 4

6 Back-up Slide Selected specialized nutritional products currently used by WFP for children: Nutributter is used for prevention of malnutrition Product type Product Dosage / day Nutrient profile Ready to eat P/T Conditions for use of specific food products Medium-dosed LNS Plumpy Doz 46.3 grams 247 kcal 5.9 g protein 16g fat Preven-tion High stunting levels Relative GAM levels (Kcal less of an issue) Micronutrient deficiencies Low-dosed LNS LNS- Nutributter 20 grams 108 kcal 2.56 g protein 7.08 g fat Preven-tion High stunting levels / low GAM levels High risk of growth faltering and micronutrients deficiencies Diet inadequate in micronutrients, essential fattyacids, macro-minerals, dairy proteins RUSF Suppleme ntary Plumpy 92 grams 500 kcal 12.5 g protein 32.9 g fat Mainly treatment No cooking facilities and limited food (kcal) available Treat MAM and suitable for children exiting therapeutic programmes Improved FBF CSB grams 840 kcal 32 g protein 18 g fat Preven-tion / Treatment High stunting levels High GAM levels (additional kcal needed) Micronutrients deficiencies Note: New products are constantly being developed. This is the picture applying the available product range in March 2011 Abbreviations for specialized foods: (FBF) Fortified Blended Food, (LNS) lipid-based nutrient supplement, (RUSF) Ready-to-use Supplementary Food 5

7 The min. cost of the diet of children aged months can be lowered by more than 80% with Nutributter Minimum Cost Diet of a child in Mozambique Change in the diet, if Nutributter is included in the foodlist for free Cost MZN Cost ZKW Yogurt, for example, is expensive, but it provides calcium Cost MZN The Nutributter is able to fulfil requirements of most vitamins and minerals of the child and thus reduce the expenses on the most expensive items in the diet Around 72 MZN per week to MZN per week Source: WFP data collection, 2010; Note: 1.00 USD = 33 MZN Note: Nutributter would cost MZM 8.4 per portion, or MZM 56.8 for 7 portions. Hence, even if the Nutributter would be bought, the diet would still be chea;er than the Minimum Cost Nutritious Diet, i.e. MZM MZM 56.8 = MZM

8 Cost Savings on the minimum cost of a nutritious diet through the fortification of different staple foods: Maize & Wheat top? Cost of the Diet of a family in Mozambique (MZN per week) % decrease 1% decrease 18% decrease!! 12% decrease!! Min. Cost Min. Cost & Fort. Sugar Min. cost & Fort. Edible oil Min. Cost & Fort. Maize flour Min. Cost & Fort. Wheat flour MZN Price 3.04 MZN/100gr MZN/100 gr 2.22 MZN/100 gr 2.95 MZN/100 gr Source: WFP data collection, 2010; Note: 1.00 USD = 33 MZN 7

9 Summary & Conclusion In collaboration with SCUK, WFP has used a linear optimization tool to get more insight into access to nutritional food: The Minimum Cost Nutritious Diet How affordable is a Minimum Cost Nutritious Diet? Djibouti Example: Only 32% of HH are able to afford it! Data on the Minimum Cost of a Nutritious Diet can be used to advocate for specialized nutritional foods & fortification of staple foods to close the nutrient requirement gap We are working on standardizing the use of the tool so that it can model a more locally adapted diet, i.e. which better reflects people s culturally-determined dietary pattern, so the case can be made even stronger 8

10 Thanks! Any questions? Special thanks to 9