FOOD PATTERN MODELING FOR THE DIETARY GUIDELINES. Patricia Britten

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1 FOOD PATTERN MODELING FOR THE DIETARY GUIDELINES Patricia Britten

2 FOOD PATTERNS IN THE DIETARY GUIDELINES

3 EVOLUTION OF USDA FOOD PATTERNS

4 WHAT ARE THE USDA FOOD PATTERNS? Recommendations for what and how much to eat and drink to meet DG and DRI recommendations Based on the range of typical American food choices but in nutrient-dense forms rather than on sample menus. Current Patterns have evolved over time from seminal work in the 1980s on total diet guidance

5 HEALTHY US-STYLE PATTERN

6 WHAT IS FOOD PATTERN MODELING? IT IS Modification of the USDA Food Patterns and assessment of the impacts A way to answer questions about hypothetical changes in Dietary Guidelines foodbased recommendations IT IS NOT Dietary pattern optimization Menu modeling The process for developing the Patterns

7 HISTORY OF FOOD PATTERN MODELING 2005 Hypothetical what if questions posed by DGAC members to staff. Process was developed to respond to these questions 2010 DGAC came with expectations for modeling but had limited understanding of the process. Workshop to help them understand method and begin to consider potential questions Assumption by DGAC that Food Pattern Modeling was an established input method

8 WHY IS FOOD PATTERN MODELING IMPORTANT? The majority of research on diet and disease relationships examines the effect of specific nutrients, food components or individual food groups. Food pattern modeling allowed the DGAC to assess the impact of converting a full set of nutrient recommendations based on that body of research into food-based recommendations. Britten P, Lyon J, Weaver CM, Kris-Etherton PM, Nicklas TA, Weber JA, Davis CA. MyPyramid Food Intake Pattern Modeling for the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee. J Nutr Educ Beh. 2006, S143-S152.

9 OUTLINE OF CURRENT PROCESS DGAC subcommittee poses potential FPM questions Staff and DGAC members discuss planned approach Modify appropriate food pattern elements Calculate hypothetical nutritional outcomes Provide draft report to DGAC DGAC may use the report to draft conclusions or inform their recommendations

10 FOOD PATTERN ELEMENTS THAT MAY BE MODIFIED Elements Food group amounts Sample Analyses Seafood, Vegetable Subgroups Inclusion or exclusion of certain foods Goals and constraints Vegetarian Patterns, Dairy, Legumes Saturated fat, Cholesterol, Vitamin D Food group nutrient profiles Typical Choices, Sodium, Vitamin D

11 SAMPLE ANALYSIS TYPICAL CHOICES Question: What is the impact on caloric and nutrient intake if the USDA Food Patterns are followed but typical rather than nutrient-dense choices are made? Analysis: Modify nutrient-profiles by replacing each nutrientdense representative food with a typical form of the food. Run analysis using modified nutrient profiles and identify impacts on calorie and nutrient intake.

12 TYPICAL VS. NUTRIENT-DENSE CHOICES SoFAS = solid fats and added sugars Britten P, Cleveland LE, Koegel KL, Kuczynski KJ, Nichols-Richardson SM. Impact of typical rather then nutrient-dense choices in the USDA Food Patterns. J Acad Nutr Dietet. 2012,

13 SAMPLE ANALYSIS TYPICAL CHOICES Resulting Recommendation: Typical choices result in a diet that is too high in calories, total fat, saturated fat, sodium, and cholesterol. Patterns should include only nutrient-dense foods with small allowances for solid fats and added sugars.

14 KEY ASSUMPTIONS Assumes population-based consumption patterns Assumes compliance with all food intake recommendations

15 CHALLENGES By nature, modeling is hypothetical cannot predict what individuals will actually do Cannot predict health outcomes Relies on existing databases for food consumption and composition However, it can be used to identify potential unintended consequences of a recommendation

16 TYPES OF INPUT USED IN DEVELOPING THE DIETARY GUIDELINES Nutrition Evidence Library systematic reviews Existing systematic reviews, metaanalyses, or reports Food pattern modeling analyses Data analyses

17 DGA INPUT DATA ANALYSES Uses existing data from NHANES and CDC Provides a snapshot of current diet and health issues

18 DATA ANALYSES EXAMPLES What are current consumption patterns of USDA Food Pattern food groups by the US population? What is the current prevalence [and distribution] of overweight/obesity in the US population? What are the top foods contributing to sodium, saturated fat, and added sugars intake by the US population?

19 WHERE TO GO FOR MORE INFO Britten, at al., MyPyramid Food Intake Pattern Modeling for the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee. J Nutr Educ Beh. 2006, S143-S152. Britten et al., Impact of typical rather then nutrientdense choices in the USDA Food Patterns. J Acad Nutr Dietet. 2012, DGAC Report appendix G DGAC Report appendix E-3 (online only) 2015 DGAC Report appendix E-3 (online only)