Planning for Problem Solving in BCJI: Finding the Solvable Problem. FY 2016 Planning and Implementation Grantee Meeting Washington, DC March 2017

Transcription

1 Planning for Problem Solving in BCJI: Finding the Solvable Problem FY 2016 Planning and Implementation Grantee Meeting Washington, DC March 2017

2 Problem Solving Involves Identifying neighborhood crime, disorder and fear problems Understanding the conditions that give rise to these problems Developing and Implementing long-term solutions tailored to relieve the problems Determining the Impact (effectiveness) of the solutions to the problem

3 SCANALYSIS When do you know that you are done scanning and have started analysis? SARA is not linear

4 CHEERS Community Harmful Expectation Events Recurring Similarity Individuals, groups, or organizations are affected by the problem Problem causes actual or perceived harm to community members. The harm is not necessarily the result of criminal conduct Public s expectation that police address the problem is reasonable Problem is experienced through discrete events that may or may not result in police calls-for-service Events have been recurring for some time and likely to continue to recur without some police intervention Events are similar to one another in one or more ways

5 Who can identify problems?

6 So what s the difference between Incident patterns a problem & pattern? occur over a shorter time period (think days or a couple of weeks); problems persist over longer time periods (think months, years, or decades). are likely to be the work of one or a relatively small group of offenders and/or affect a relatively small number of victims; problems tend to be the work of a steady stream of new offenders and/or affect a steady stream of new victims. tend to occur in one or a few number of locations; problems tend to occur over multiple locations tend to have fairly straightforward causes; problems tend to have multiple and relatively complex causes and contributing factors.

7 BEFORE ANALYSIS: What is the problem? Problems: Two or more incidents, Related in one or more ways, Victim Group Suspects Time Location Behavior Causes harm or likely to cause harm, Public expectation of police service. What do you think is going on? What is the story according to the police? What is the story according to the community and/or other stakeholders?

8 BEFORE ANALYSIS: Asking the right questions Be very crime specific Why? To correctly identify the underlying problem UCR To ask the right analysis questions To have the most appropriate response strategies Categories Don t settle for UCR categories! Focus on your specific local problem, not just generic explanations of the crime

9 BEFORE ANALYSIS: Asking the right questions Use the problem analysis triangle to formulate the right questions Basic questions: What are the incident characteristics? Who are the victims and offenders? What are the locations and times of the incidents? Who is responsible for managing the locations where the incidents occur, protecting the victims, or handling the offenders?

10 What data should we use? Use data that will explain: Who What When Where Why How

11 What data should we use? Traditional Police Data Crimes Arrests Calls for Service Field Interviews Traffic Data (sites and collisions) Don t restrict yourself to the common police data! Other criminal justice organizations DA/ Prosecutor s Office Probation/ Parole Jail Non-CJ governmental agencies Auditor/ Tax/ Property Code Health Community and business-related organizations Community surveys and assessments Business-related associations

12 How do we collect data that s not in a system? Visual assessments Environmental surveys Maps Time graphs Photos/videos Intelligence info Police interviews Police records Stakeholder canvass Neighborhood surveys Business surveys Student surveys School personnel surveys Parent surveys Offender interviews Victim interviews

13 Collecting data: Environmental/Site Survey, Interview/Focus Group, Observations Environmental Surveys help to identify: What factors around the location may contribute to the problem? What are the security features? Lighting? Access? What about the location makes it different from nearby locations Interviews & Focus Groups help to answer: How are individuals affected by the problem and what role can be played in resolving the problem? What are the consequences or outcomes of the problem? What harms result from the problem? Observation activities help to clarify: When is the problem occurring? Who is involved? Who does it affect? What are the behaviors of the victims and suspects? What is missing from the typical setting?

14 Collecting data: Neighborhood & crime/problem surveys

15 Analysis: Types of analysis Incident analysis Spatial analysis Offender analysis Victim analysis

16 Analysis: Pay attention to rhythms Used to help identify activity cycles that may be contributing to the problem Weekday versus weekend Time of day Special events Temporal Clustering Diffused evenly spread over entire day Focused within distinct time ranges Acute tightly packed in small periods Percent of violent crimes committed 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 6AM 8AM 10AM Noon 2PM 4PM 6PM 8PM 10PM Midnight 2AM 4AM 6AM

17 Analysis: Know how to use rates and denominators Examining rates helps to understand if the number of targets contributes to the problem Rates describe the number of crimes/incidents per target at risk, during a time period Calculating rates: be careful of the denominator! Emphasis on high numbers or rates?

18 Analysis: Using rates & denominators Which lot is riskier to park in? Swap meet Huge (2,500 spaces) Open only 2 days a week Park time: 1.5 hours 42 thefts in 2001 OR H Street Trolley Tiny (300 spaces) Open 7 days a week Park time: 8 hours 21 thefts in Swap Meet H Street Trolley # of Auto Thefts in 2001 Risk Rate

19 Analysis: Learn if the rule applies 80/20 rule: Small proportion of X are responsible for a large proportion of outcomes Repeat Offenders Repeat Victims Hot Spots Hot Products Risky Facilities The 80/20 rule is also known as the Pareto Principle or Law of the Vital Few

20 Address No. Robberies Analysis: Learn if the rule applies % Robberies Cum. % Robberies % Addresses (N=106) Cum. % Addresses E Main St % 9.23% 0.94% 0.94% S Clover Av % 15.50% 0.94% 1.89% N Grand Blvd % 21.03% 0.94% 2.83% N Grand Blvd % 24.72% 0.94% 3.77% E Main St % 28.04% 0.94% 4.72% W Haverty Rd % 31.37% 0.94% 5.66% N Staple Dr % 34.32% 0.94% 6.60% S Daisy Rd % 36.90% 0.94% 7.55% N Roan Rd % 38.75% 0.94% 8.49% E Main St % 40.59% 0.94% 9.43% Addresses with 4 (5) % 47.97% 4.72% 14.15% Addresses with 3 (15) % 64.58% 14.15% 28.30% Addresses with 2 (20) % 79.34% 18.87% 47.17% Addresses with 1 (56) % % 52.83% % Total % %

21 Analysis: Find the Hot Places Defining your hot spot Specific location (address, intersection, etc.) Street block/segment Area (neighborhood, blob, etc.) Going beyond hot spot maps Analyzing within hot spots Using them effectively

22 Clerkenwell Hotspot Vehicle type Camden Clerkenwell (n) Clerkenwell(%) Car 51% 41 18% Sports or convertible 3% 5 2% Scooter or moped 26% 95 42% Motor cycle 13% 70 31% Van 5% 3 1% Other 2.0% 10 4% Not known 0.5% 0 0% From wheredunit to whodunnit

23 Analysis: Diagnose your hot spot

24 Analyzing hot places: Seattle BCJI

25 Analyzing hot places

26 Analyzing hot places

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28 Identifying shared problems Fire Department Homeless encampments Traffic collisions Meth labs Health and Human Services Mental health Domestic violence Child abuse Code Enforcement/Buildings Other?

29 Atlanta BCJI Snapshot

30 Atlanta BCJI Snapshot CFS Top Call Locations *Several locations are multi-family housing. While this may account for larger numbers of calls, the data does not allow us to break it out to the unit level so we do not know if the large number at a multi-family are spread out evenly or all at the same unit.

31 Atlanta BCJI Snapshot CFS Top Call Types

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33 Alcohol/Drug Top Charge Breakdown

34 Arrestee Demographics

35 Arrestee Demographics Arrestee Ages blank Ct Ct Age Ct Ct

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38 Resources to support analysis Center for Problem Oriented Policing ( ell-analysis-for-probsolvers.pdf Crime incident reviews NVikp

39 Thank you. Questions? Comments? Julie Wartell