Christine Riesner Horst Christian Vollmar, Ines Buscher, Ewa Dönitz, Kerstin Goluchowicz, Stefan Wilm, Bernd Beckert, Sabine Bartholomeyczik

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1 The situation of people with dementia in Germany in 2030 a multidisciplinary scenario approach (Sce-Dem) Christine Riesner Horst Christian Vollmar, Ines Buscher, Ewa Dönitz, Kerstin Goluchowicz, Stefan Wilm, Bernd Beckert, Sabine Bartholomeyczik

2 Content Background Method 6 Step Scenario Approach Results Two dark scenarios with poor prospects One well-meant but badly done scenario Two scenarios with mainly positive aspects Conclusion Seite 2

3 Background The number of people with dementia is growing. Up to now dementia can t be cured. There exists a huge body of knowledge about dementia care, but knowledge use is insufficient. How can we create the future? To anticipate different alternative futures of health care of PwD in Germany, the German Centre of Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE) initiated in cooperation with Witten/Herdecke University (UWH), with the Chair of Innovation Economics, Institute of Technology (TU Berlin), Berlin and the Fraunhofer Institute of Systems- and Innovation Research (ISI) a multidisciplinary scenario process Seite 3

Method 6 Step Scenario Approach Formulation of most consistent and robust scenarios Calculation with a scenario software Combining descriptors into a

4 Method 6 Step Scenario Approach Formulation of most consistent and robust scenarios Calculation with a scenario software Combining descriptors into a consistence matrix Workshops with 50 multidisciplinary experts Systematic collection and draft descriptor building Identification of influencing aeras Seite 4

5 Research & Technology Health Care Health Care of PwD in Germany in 2030 political & legal background Identification of influencing aeras Society, Ethics & Values Financial background Seite 5

6 Specific interventions and therapies Regionale Research Wirtschafts &- struktur Technology Specific prevention Technology for promoting authonomie Systematic collection and draft descriptor building Seite 6

relevance of descriptors for the health service about the possible future development of the descriptors (expression)

7 Two multidisciplinary workshops over two days with 50 experts from all relevant disciplines Moderation by a pair of chairs with scenario methodology knowledge / health care for PwD knowledge Discussion in work groups about the relevance of descriptors for the health service about the possible future development of the descriptors (expression) and about the projections and interdependencies of the relevant descriptors Workshops with 50 multidisciplinary experts Seite 7

8 Combining descriptors into a consistence matrix Seite 8

9 Szenario 4 Demenz meistern Szenario 1 Szenario 3 Gut gemeint und Szenario 5 Szenario Dem 2 Calculation with a scenario software Seite 9

dementia Safekeeping of People with Dementia Economic depression massively rising costs for health

10 Results: two dark scenarios Collapse of supply structures Economic depression, no research funding Two class society collapse of care structures, massively rising costs nobody cares for people with dementia Safekeeping of People with Dementia Economic depression massively rising costs for health care Unsuccessful knowledge transfer Decreasing informal care Inadequate social support for pwd and carers Seite 10

Stigmatisation and social exclusion of pwd are common in society Efficient research with government funding Consequent political

11 Results: one well meant but badly done and one avoiding dementia scenario New research findings are inadequate and not sustainably implemented A legal binding causes the citizens to work voluntarily Services are available, but met only some needs of those concerned Stigmatisation and social exclusion of pwd are common in society Efficient research with government funding Consequent political implementation programmes Compulsory risk analysis for citizens Compulsory vaccination and other treatments Diverse care services are available Seite 11

Results: one mastering dementia scenario Dementia has become a normal social accepted chronic disease Sustainable implementation of research

12 Results: one mastering dementia scenario Dementia has become a normal social accepted chronic disease Sustainable implementation of research findings Vaccination is available, but not obligatory Treatment for preventions are available AAL is widely used and promotes autonomy for pwd. Seite 12

13 Conclusion There are consistent positive scenarios for persons with dementia in 2030 in Germany. A framework for determining actions in research as well as in society and policy is needed. The heart of creating a positive future is social inclusion for people with dementia Nevertheless, further action and research should not focus only on Germany but also on the European region to implement sufficient strategies to improve the situation of people with dementia and their caregivers. Seite 13

14 Thank you for your attention Seite 14

PUBLIC POLICIES AND ALZHEIMER RESEARCH

PUBLIC POLICIES AND ALZHEIMER RESEARCH 25TH ALHEIMER EUROPE CONFERENCE SEPTEMBER 2015 INTRODUCTION France Alzheimer and related diseases has, since its creation, put research at the center of its priorities