Attachment E, Exhibit 1 Los Vaqueros Reservoir Recreation Model
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1 Attachment E, Exhibit 1 Los Vaqueros Reservoir Recreation Model Proposition 1 February 2018
2 This page is intentionally left blank.
3 LOS VAQUEROS RESERVOIR EXISTING DAY-USE FACILITIES Parking Equestrian/ Bus Parking Toilets Picnic Tables Barbeque Units Fishing Piers Miscellaneous Facilities Areas Below Dam Walnut Staging Area (North Entry) Kellogg Creek Picnic Area Three metal-roof shade shelters covering seven picnic tables Interpretive Center/ Dam Staging Area Outdoor amphitheater at the Interpretive Center Top of Dam 1 Visitor-use toilet Areas Above Dam Southwest of Dam 1 Fishing pier Los Vaqueros Staging Area Americans with Disabilities Act ramp to fishing pier Oak Point Picnic Area Visitor-use toilets at Marina or Los Vaqueros Staging Area Marina Marina building, fish-cleaning station, outdoor amphitheater, pay phone, drinking fountain, Marina Manager s Knoll Picnic Area Picnic tables Northwest Cove 1 1 Fishing pier Trails Hiking-Only Trails 39.2 miles* Multi-use Trails (for hiking, bicycling, and horseback riding) Total miles of trails* 15.8 miles* almost all multi-use trails are outside the reservoir drainage area
4 The population project is obtained for 10 counties (9 counties in the Bay Area plus San Joaquin county). Data source: Department of Finance Total Estimated and Projected Population for California and Counties: July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2060 in 1 year Increments Population Estimates Projections Alameda County 1,515,338 1,531,942 1,554,446 1,575,797 1,599,685 1,619,679 1,637,712 1,655,752 1,673,333 1,691,006 1,708,594 Contra Costa County 1,051,525 1,063,877 1,075,665 1,089,656 1,102,941 1,116,882 1,129,894 1,143,494 1,156,897 1,170,645 1,184,094 Marin County 252, , , , , , , , , , ,020 Napa County 136, , , , , , , , , , ,074 San Francisco County 809, , , , , , , , , , ,736 San Joaquin County 687, , , , , , , , , , ,572 San Mateo County 720, , , , , , , , , , ,345 Santa Clara County 1,790,301 1,813,860 1,840,218 1,866,208 1,890,929 1,915,102 1,930,215 1,952,286 1,974,340 1,996,262 2,018,257 Solano County 412, , , , , , , , , , ,795 Sonoma County 483, , , , , , , , , , ,926 Total 7,859,500 7,946,167 8,045,531 8,142,908 8,245,913 8,340,797 8,419,582 8,509,979 8,599,799 8,690,341 8,780,413 Population Projections Alameda County 1,726,384 1,743,827 1,761,307 1,778,382 1,795,390 1,811,948 1,828,683 1,845,406 1,862,303 1,878,556 Contra Costa County 1,197,669 1,211,093 1,224,266 1,237,557 1,250,935 1,263,872 1,276,685 1,289,548 1,302,086 1,314,573 Marin County 267, , , , , , , , , ,243 Napa County 145, , , , , , , , , ,107 San Francisco County 913, , , , , , , , , ,738 San Joaquin County 794, , , , , , , , , ,240 San Mateo County 800, , , , , , , , , ,852 Santa Clara County 2,039,661 2,061,014 2,082,440 2,103,539 2,124,780 2,145,747 2,166,906 2,188,009 2,209,304 2,230,564 Solano County 461, , , , , , , , , ,230 Sonoma County 522, , , , , , , , , ,134 Total 8,869,774 8,958,495 9,046,256 9,133,517 9,220,464 9,305,633 9,391,012 9,475,666 9,560,182 9,643,237
5 Population Projections Alameda County 1,894,763 1,911,085 1,927,053 1,942,854 1,958,389 1,973,632 1,988,785 2,003,468 2,017,894 2,032,262 Contra Costa County 1,326,813 1,338,917 1,350,666 1,362,401 1,373,950 1,384,877 1,395,885 1,406,278 1,416,247 1,426,050 Marin County 274, , , , , , , , , ,955 Napa County 154, , , , , , , , , ,795 San Francisco County 988, ,430 1,002,079 1,008,715 1,015,352 1,021,834 1,028,560 1,034,969 1,041,448 1,047,902 San Joaquin County 906, , , , , , , , , ,379 San Mateo County 851, , , , , , , , , ,272 Santa Clara County 2,251,814 2,273,274 2,294,457 2,316,181 2,337,470 2,358,693 2,380,272 2,401,636 2,422,662 2,443,718 Solano County 514, , , , , , , , , ,679 Sonoma County 561, , , , , , , , , ,957 Total 9,725,133 9,806,539 9,886,457 9,966,231 10,044,939 10,121,179 10,197,914 10,272,352 10,345,195 10,416,969 Population Projections Alameda County 2,046,309 2,059,884 2,073,345 2,086,837 2,099,569 2,111,857 2,124,369 2,136,735 2,148,243 2,159,782 Contra Costa County 1,435,113 1,444,199 1,452,936 1,461,217 1,469,258 1,476,905 1,484,733 1,492,038 1,499,203 1,505,996 Marin County 279, , , , , , , , , ,335 Napa County 162, , , , , , , , , ,634 San Francisco County 1,054,552 1,061,091 1,067,823 1,074,591 1,081,493 1,088,445 1,095,477 1,102,684 1,110,276 1,117,661 San Joaquin County 1,005,452 1,014,318 1,023,143 1,031,716 1,040,015 1,048,487 1,056,646 1,064,669 1,072,399 1,079,902 San Mateo County 889, , , , , , , , , ,205 Santa Clara County 2,464,287 2,484,825 2,505,307 2,525,263 2,545,513 2,565,136 2,584,536 2,603,765 2,622,271 2,640,473 Solano County 561, , , , , , , , , ,865 Sonoma County 588, , , , , , , , , ,189 Total 10,486,470 10,554,590 10,622,273 10,688,379 10,753,641 10,816,719 10,879,659 10,941,453 11,001,426 11,060,042 Population Projections Alameda County 2,171,124 2,181,976 2,193,064 2,203,682 2,213,971 2,224,332 2,235,086 2,245,459 2,255,820 2,265,671 Contra Costa County 1,512,298 1,518,532 1,524,704 1,531,161 1,537,429 1,543,909 1,550,064 1,556,388 1,562,652 1,568,920 Marin County 276, , , , , , , , , ,469 Napa County 166, , , , , , , , , ,408 San Francisco County 1,125,148 1,132,865 1,140,639 1,148,552 1,156,570 1,164,351 1,171,907 1,179,774 1,187,966 1,196,108 San Joaquin County 1,087,320 1,094,477 1,101,589 1,108,776 1,116,089 1,123,108 1,129,840 1,136,577 1,143,262 1,150,034 San Mateo County 917, , , , , , , , , ,228 Santa Clara County 2,658,419 2,675,984 2,693,072 2,710,191 2,726,922 2,743,533 2,760,187 2,777,016 2,794,125 2,810,865 Solano County 599, , , , , , , , , ,039 Sonoma County 602, , , , , , , , , ,690 Total 11,117,997 11,174,482 11,230,620 11,286,729 11,342,460 11,397,505 11,452,409 11,507,574 11,563,519 11,618,432
6 Linear Population Growth Model y = Ax+B Fitted parameters 12,000,000 A B ,000,000 LVE Population Projection Population in 1000s ,300,000 8,000, ,677, ,055, ,433,610 6,000, ,811, ,189, ,567, ,945,090 4,000, ,322, ,700, ,078,700 2,000, ,456, ,834, Population 14,000,000 y = 75,574x - 148,603,740 R² = 1.00 Population Trend Based on DOF Data Population Projection for LVE Visitation Model Linear (Population Trend Based on DOF Data) Linear (Population Projection for LVE Visitation Model)
7 Measured Number of Anglers Historical Measurements at Los Vaqueros Reservoir Population Estimates in Areas that Visit Los Vaqueros Reservoir Predicted Number of Anglers Reservoir Storage as Percentage of Max Capacity Average Reservoir Surface Area (Acres) ,222 2,922,130 89% , ,935 2,997,704 96% , ,264 3,073,278 87% , ,230 3,148,852 86% , ,879 3,224,426 76% , ,047 3,300,000 76% , ,020 3,375,574 51% , ,345 3,451,148 52% , ,232 3,526,722 76% , ,175 3,602,296 77% , ,769 3,677,870 64% , ,685 3,753,444 66% , ,192 45,000 40,000 Number of Visitors per Year 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Measured Number of Anglers Predicted Number of Anglers
8 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.92 R Square 0.85 Adjusted R Square 0.79 Standard Error Observations ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression Residual Total Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept Population Estimates in Areas that Visit Los Vaqueros Reservoir Reservoir Storage as Percentage of Max Capacity Average Reservoir Surface Area (Acres)
9 Average Storage of Los Vaqueros Reservoir Modeled using CalSim-II Provided by Water Commission Without Project With Project Without Project With Project Average Storage (TAF) Percent of Maximum Capacity 91% 85% 88% 84% Average Water Surface Area (acres) 1,763 2,243 1,737 2,229
10 Number of Boat Rentals Historical Measurements of Boat Rentals from Los Vaqueros Reservoir SUMMARY OUTPUT Year Measured # of Boat Rentals Number of Anglers ,390 14,020 Regression Statistics ,498 22,345 Multiple R ,947 23,232 R Square ,782 32,175 Adjusted R Square ,256 34,769 Standard Error ,554 40,685 Observations 6.00 Average 2,405 27,871 ANOVA 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, y = 0.097x R² = ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Number of Anglers df SS MS F Significance F Regression Residual Total Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept Number of Anglers # of Boats Available #NUM!
11 Historical Measurements at Los Vaqueros Reservoir Visitor Center Non-Field Trip Student Field Trip Year Interpretive Center Visits Attendance Total Visitors Number of Times Interpretive Center Met Capacity % of Time Max Capacity Utilized ,270 1,420 4, % 2012* 1, , % ,070 3,059 6, % ,224 3,530 6, % ,720 6,898 9, % ,123 6,659 8, % ,457 6,306 8, % Average 2,811 4,645 7, % *Visitor Center was closed in 2012 due construction of the expanded dam and reservoir. Column averages do not include 2012 values. 11,500 max people/year old center 15,000 max people/year new center 7,500 max people/year barn
12 Historical Measurements of Other Recreational Total Anglers + Education Other Recreation ,710 3, ** 24, ,361 4, ,929 5, ,387 10, ,467 10, ,237 ** 2012 data was excluded because the north side of the reservoir was closed due to construction of the enlarged reservoir and dam. 12,000 Number of Other Paid Recreation Visits 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 y = x R² = ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Number of Anglers + Education Visitors
13 Quantification of Physical Benefits Without Project With Project Benefit Without Project With Project Benefit Population 4,811,480 4,811,480-7,834,440 7,834,440 - Percentage of Maximum Capacity 91% 85% - 88% 84% - Average Surface Area (acres) 1,763 2,243-1,737 2,229 - Anglers Number of Anglers 71,494 78,066 6, , ,425 6,876 Number of Boats Boating Number of Boat Rentals 6,637 7, ,083 15, Educational Classroom Maximum Capacity (# people) Watershed Barn Capacity (# people) Education Number of Educational Visitors (#/year) 7,456 14,588 7,132 7,456 14,588 7,132 Other Visitors Number of Other Visitors (#/year) 16,808 19,964 3,156 36,857 40,083 3,226 Quantification of Physical Benefits Without Project With Project Benefit Without Project With Project Benefit Anglers (Visitors/year) 71,494 78,066 6, , ,425 6,876 Boat Rental (#/year) 6,637 7, ,083 15, Education (Visitors/year) 7,456 14,588 7,132 7,456 14,588 7,132 Other (Visitors/year) 16,808 19,964 3,156 36,857 40,083 3,226 Total 95, ,618 16, , ,095 17,234
14 Annual Physical Benefit Annual Annual Monetized Physical Benefit Benefit Annual Monetized Benefit Actual 2015 USACE Unit Day Value 1 Value Anglers ($/visitor) $8.30-6,572 $54,545 6,876 $57,071 Parking ($/car) - $6.00 3,286 $19,715 3,438 $20,628 Boat Rental ($/boat) - $ $50, $52,701 Education ($/visitors) $7.32-7,132 $52,204 7,132 $52,204 Other ($/visitors) $7.32-3,156 $23,101 3,226 $23,614 Parking ($/car) - $6.00 1,578 $9,468 1,613 $9,678 Total $209,400 - $215,896 Notes: (1) U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Unit Day Values for Recreation for Fiscal Year 2015
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