The Drug War and the Resurgence of Mexico s Heroin Trade Nancy Cortés MAIR Capstone Spring 2015

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1 The Drug War and the Resurgence of Mexico s Heroin Trade Nancy Cortés MAIR Capstone Spring 2015

2 HEROIN

3 Thousands of Users (NSDUH) Thousands of Users (ONDCP) The Heroin Surge ,600 1, , , Past year heroin users (NSDUH) Chronic drug users (ONDCP 2014) Sources: SAMHSA, National Survey on Drug Use and Health; ONDCP, What America's Users Spend on Illegal Drugs:

4 Kilograms (kg) Heroin Seizures 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - U.S. Seizures Source: UNODC. UNODC Statistics: World Drug Report, accessed March 18, 2015.

5 Why? Gateway Theory: Evidence: About 4 in 5 new heroin addicts report that they got addicted to prescription pills before they ever took heroin. Original Source: SAMHSA (2013) 79.5 % heroin users reported prior nonmedical pain reliever (NMPR) use 31.3% reported past year dependence/abuse 48.2% NO past year dependence/abuse Only 3.6% NMPR first-time users began to use heroin within 5 years of their first NMPR use

6 Why? Law Enforcement Crack Down on Non-Medical Use of Pain Relievers Increasing Difficulty to Obtain or Use How are NMPR obtained? (SAMHSA 2009) 55% - Relative or friend for free 18% - Doctor 5% - Drug dealer 0.4% - Internet Reformulation of OxyContin occurred in 2010

7 First Time Users Opioid Pain Relievers Source: Kolodny et Al. "The Prescription Opioid and Heroin Crisis: A Public Health Approach to an Epidemic of Addiction." Annual Review of Public Health, 36 (March 2015): 564. Original Source: SAMHSA

8 Alternative Explanation: The War on Drugs Former Mexican President Felipe Calderón Former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe

9 Pure Metric Tons (MT) 2010 USD Cocaine: Not so Popular Anymore Cocaine Consumption Cocaine Expenditures Source: ONDCP, What America's Users Spend on Illegal Drugs:

10 Metric Tons (MT) Cocaine Seizures U.S. seizures Colombian seizures Sources: UNODC. UNODC Statistics: World Drug Report, Accessed March 18, 2015, for data on U.S. Seizures; INL, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, Years 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, U.S. Department of State, for data on Colombian seizures, accessed March 18, 2014.

11 Kingpin Strategy Felipe Calderón ( ) 25 out of 37 most wanted were killed or captured (October 2012) Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-) 80 out of 122 most wanted were killed or captured (May 2014)

12 Mexican DTOs ( ) Fragmentation (1 st Semester) 2010 (2 nd Semester) Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Beltrán Leyva Organization (BLO) South Pacific Cartel South Pacific Cartel South Pacific Cartel South Pacific Cartel The Hand with Eyes Extinct The New Administration Extinct La Barbie Cartel Independent Cartel of Acapulco Independent Cartel of Acapulco Cartel del Charro Extinct Extinct Juarez Cartel Juarez Cartel Juarez Cartel Juarez Cartel Juarez Cartel New Juarez Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel El Teo Faction El Teo Faction Extinct Extinct Extinct Gulf Cartel Gulf Cartel-Los Zetas Gulf Cartel Gulf Cartel Gulf Cartel Gulf Cartel Los Zetas Los Zetas Los Zetas Los Zetas La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana Extinct Knights Templar Knights Templar Los Incorregibles Extinct La Empresa Extinct Milenio Cartel Milenio Cartel Milenio Cartel La Resistencia La Resistencia La Resistencia Jalisco Cartel-New Generation (CJNG) Jalisco Cartel-New Generation (CJNG) La Nueva Federación para Vivir Mejor Source: Guerrero Gutiérrez, Eduardo, "La estrategia fallida," Nexos, December 2012 Jalisco Cartel-New Generation (CJNG) Extinct

13 The Current Environment of the Mexican Criminal World Fragmentation and Decentralization Diversification Quickly evolving According to PGR (September, 2014): 9 major DTOs 7 DTOs control over 43 criminal gangs Outsourcing Kidnappings Extortion Assassination for hire Auto theft Resource theft Human smuggling Prostitution Rings

14 How is this connected to increased heroin consumption in the U.S.? Smaller criminal organizations did not have the operational capacity to compete in the cocaine trade Comes from South America Sophisticated methods of production High risk/costly Heroin trade profitable diversification opportunity Locally produced Easy to produce Profitable in small quantities

15 $ $ $ $ Humberto Padgett. Sin Embargo. $

16 Billions of 2010 USD Pure Metric Tons (MTs) Quantity Consumed vs. Dollars Spent Heroin Consumption Cocaine Consumption Heroin Expenditures Cocaine Expenditures

17 Heroin Cocaine

18 Kilograms Average Size of Seizures on Southwestern and Coastal Border Sectors FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Heroin Cocaine Source: CBP, U.S. Border Patrol Fiscal Year 2011(2012, 2013, 2014) Sector Profile, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

19 Explaining the Success of Mexican Criminal Networks in the U.S. Low-cost Strategy: Control over production and distribution Standardized product Pizza delivery system Aggressive Marketing: Free samples Customer service

20 DEA Spokesman told Washington Post: The Mexicans are evolving their production abilities and getting more sophisticated It s not just black tar anymore. Mexican criminal groups now dominate the entire North American Market. Brown Powder Heroin White Powder Heroin

21 Recap 1.Fragmentation and Decentralization 2.Reduced Operational Capacity 3.Reconfiguration of Supply Networks 4.Heroin: Local and Profitable 5.Mexican domination of U.S. heroin Market

22 Broader Implications Balloon Effect 2.0 COCAINE HEROINE Counterintuitive Finding SUPPLY NETWORKS CONSUMER PREFERENCES

23 Thank You