Drugs and violence. Dr. Angela Me Chief Research UNODC

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1 Drugs and violence Dr. Angela Me Chief Research UNODC

2 Summary Is there a link between drugs and violence? Yes, but there is not a binary and causal relationship. Drugs may not be associated to violence and violence may not be associated to drugs. Drugs can be the result or the enabler of violence Solving the problem of violence helps to address the drug problem? Yes, but not always De-regulating drugs solve the problem of violence? To be tested, but some evidence and reasoning point to a No.

3 Links between drug production/drug trafficking and violence

4 Illegal armed groups and coca cultivation in Colombia, 2009 Municipalities and presence of illegal armed groups Coca areas: 63% illegal armed groups Noncoca areas: 21% illegal armed groups

5 hectares number of persons Illegal armed groups and coca cultivation in Colombia, ,000 40,000 33, ,000 28,100 30,000 80,000 20,000 14,000 13,200 40,000 10, Coca surface Size of illegal armed groups (enrolment) Sources: UNODC/SIMCI and National Police & Ministry of Defense.

6 Homicide rates in Colombia by type of municipality, Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.

7 Hectares Number Peru: coca cultivation and terrorist incidents 140,000 2,979 2,689 3, ,000 3,000 2, ,000 2,500 80,000 2,000 60,000 1, ,000 1,000 20, Area under coca cultivation Terrorist incidents Source: DEVIDA, Cocaine production Monitoring in the Andean region, Lima, July 2004; updated with UNODC cultivation data until 2007

8 Opium poppy cultivation and security incidents, 2011

9 Important to note that violence can be an outcome or an enabler for drug production

10 Violence/insecurity is not the only factor related to drug cultivation

11 Link between underdevelopment and opium cultivation in Afghanistan

13 Drug trafficking has generated violence

14 Homicide rates at subnational level, Central America 2005 and 2010

15 Homicide rates by municipal areas in northern Central America, 2011

16 Main areas of influence of Mexican drug cartels, 2009/2010 Source: Economist, August 12, 2010

17 But not all violence in Central America has been generated by drug trafficking

18 Tons of Cocaine transiting countries in Central America and Homicide rate, Cocaine transiting Homicide rate Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica Panama Belize El Salvador 0

19 Share of cocaine Share of Cocaine Flowing to the United States by Transport Corridors 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Central America/Mexico Caribbean Direct Source: U.S. National Drug Intelligence Center, various years.

20 Homicide rate in Guyana and Jamaica

21 Increase in violence has been associated with changes in drug trafficking (both increases and decreases) Destabilization of illicit markets produces violence (between organized criminal groups and/or between criminal organizations and governmental institutions)

24 A reflection of shrinking cocaine market in the US (a result of disruption of trafficking in Mexico?)

25 tons Seizures of cocaine (incl. paste and base), West & Central Europe North America Central America Other regions Source: UNODC, Annual Report Questionnaire Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Other Europe Caribbean South America Trend (3 years average, smoothed)

26 Homicide rates, by subregion, Note: Number of countries is denoted in brackets. Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.

27 The absence of violence doesn t automatically reflect absence of drug trafficking. It can be a reflection of an established high level trafficking (pax mafiosa)

Drug trafficking and violence 1.6 1.1 9.2 4.7 21.5 54 (Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras) 20 (excl. Cuba) _ 30.8 9.6 53.7 12.6 10.4 14.6 12.

28 Drug trafficking and violence (Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras) 20 (excl. Cuba) _ Global homicide rate in 2012: 6.1 per 100,000 inhabitants: Sources: UNODC, The Globalization of Crime A Transnational Organized Crime Threat Assessment, June 2010 and UNODC, Homicide Report

29 Seizures* of cocaine, 2012 (tons) * Seizures of more than 10 kg

31 Organized crime/gang-related homicides out of total homicides (2011 or latest year available) Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.

32 Rates of organized crime/gang-related homicides, selected countries in Central America and the Caribbean, Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.

33 Drugs is only one of the illicit markets managed by the OC cartels in Central America and cartels have proven to adopt very quickly to the changing environment switching quickly to different markets if one proves to be less profitable or problematic Eliminating drug trafficking doesn t resolve the problem of OC and violence

34 Illicit mining in San Gaban, Peru 2013 Illicit mining in San Gaban, Peru 2005

35 OC operates where there are regulated markets. Their profits come from: Offering products which are not allowed by regulations (drugs, arms, protected species) Offering cheaper products or services which would be more expensive if produced/ managed according to regulations (counterfeited products, waste management) Controlling the territory (extortions)

36 Value of illicit markets in Europe

37 As long as global societies set up standards requiring regulations there are potential markets for OC OC can bring violence or can operate in peace so the objective should be clear: peace at all costs (pax mafiosa)? The problem of OC and its associated violence can be solved only if the conditions of OC vulnerability affecting communities are addressed. There are no short-cuts

38 Each community affected by OC has its own combination of opportunities and vulnerabilities Socio-economic vulnerabilities Infrastructures Education Poverty Employment opportunities Governance Weak presence of institutions insecurity Weak Rule of Law

39 Drugs are only one of the many opportunities..

40 Alternative Development to address vulnerabilities and opportunities to OC

41 The final objective is not the PAX Mafiosa but the PAX Development

42 hectares Coca cultivation, Colombia Peru Bolivia Global Source: UNODC, 2014 World Drug Report, June 2014 and UNODC, Coca Surveys - Colombia, Peru and Bolivia.

Homicide rates in selected countries of the Americas, (1995-2012,

43 Homicide rates in selected countries of the Americas, ( , three-year moving average) Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.

44 Results from alternative development interventions measured in terms of the consolidation index in Colombia,

45 Do all persons arrested for violations of the drug law go to prison?

46 Reported violations, convictions and prison sentences in 2013 in relation to the Austrian Narcotics Act 100% % reported violations of the Narcotics Law ("arrests") diversions all convictions against the Narcotics Law convictions against the Narcotics Act (main item) custodial sentences (prison sentences) suspended sentences therapy % % % % % Total (drug related) Misdemeanours (mostly possession of drugs) Crimes (mostly drug trafficking and illegal production) other 100% % Sources: Austrian Ministry of Justice, Sicherheitsbericht 2013 and Ministry of Interior, Drug related Crime, Situation Report 2013.

47 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION For more information:

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