IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, JUNE 18, 2015

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1 Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey Fax: IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, JUNE 18, 2015 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll director David Redlawsk may be contacted at (cell), (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu until 11:00pm. Poll assistant director Ashley Koning may be contacted at or akoning@rutgers.edu. Roseanne Scotti, NJ state director of the Drug Policy Alliance, may be contacted at or rscotti@drugpolicy.org. Questions and tables are available at Visit our blog at for additional commentary. Follow the on Facebook and MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION FOR ADULTS WITH TAXATION AND REGULATION SUPPORTED BY MOST NEW JERSEYANS: RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL NEW BRUNSWICK, NJ A clear majority of New Jerseyans supports legalizing, taxing and regulating marijuana for adults 21 and over, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released today. Just under one-third of residents strongly support making marijuana use legal, assuming it would be taxed and regulated, while another 26 percent somewhat support the idea. Twelve percent are somewhat opposed while 27 percent are strongly opposed. An April 2014 found that while about two-thirds in New Jersey favored eliminating marijuana possession penalties, just 49 percent supported completely legalizing the drug. The trend in New Jersey mirrors the nation as support for legalizing marijuana continues to grow, said David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers University. The question we asked this year is more specific than in the past, specifying that legalization would come with taxes and regulation and would apply to adults 21 and over. That likely accounts for some of the jump from 49 percent support a year ago to 58 percent today. But no matter how it is asked, we have seen a long-term upward trend in support. Most New Jerseyans do not consider legalization a priority. While 20 percent call legalization of marijuana a very important issue, more than twice as many Garden State residents (45 percent) say it is not very important. The rest are in the middle, with 22 percent calling this issue somewhat important and 12 percent saying it is somewhat unimportant. New Jersey state Sen. Nicholas Scutari (D-Middlesex, Somerset and Union) has introduced a bill legalizing, taxing, and regulating marijuana for adults. Senate Bill 1896 and its companion in the Assembly, sponsored by Assemblyman Reed Gusciora (D-Hunterdon and Mercer) and Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Middlesex, Somerset and Union) create a system similar to Colorado s, with marijuana regulated like alcohol at every step of the production and sales process. More than 22,000 people were arrested for marijuana possession in New Jersey in 2010 at a cost of more than $125 million dollars, said Roseanne Scotti, New Jersey State Director of the Drug 1

2 Policy Alliance. But this poll shows a significant majority of New Jerseyans believe in changing this policy so marijuana can be legally taxed and regulated for adults, the same as alcohol. The questions about marijuana were developed in consultation with the NJ office of the Drug Policy Alliance. The marijuana support question was the subject of an experiment where some respondents were randomly prompted that marijuana would be regulated like alcohol, while others were not. Analyses show that the variation in the question made no significant difference; accordingly this release reports on both versions combined. Results are from a statewide poll of 860 residents contacted by live callers on landlines and cell phones from Mar. 27 Apr. 3, 2015, with a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Interviews were completed in English and, when requested, Spanish. Democrats, independents, millennials strongest supporters While there are no differences between men and women, or by race in support for legalizing marijuana, there is a noticeable split between Democrats and Republicans. More than six-in-ten Democrats support legalization (39 percent strongly and 25 percent somewhat), but just 41 percent of Republicans agree, with only 18 percent of GOPers strongly supporting the idea. Nearly half of New Jersey Republicans (46 percent) strongly oppose marijuana legalization, double the strong opposition from Democrats. In general, opinions of independents are much closer to those of Democrats than Republicans, with 33 percent strongly and 28 percent somewhat backing legalization. Differences between Democrats and Republicans are highly predictable, said Redlawsk. But this version of the question legalizing, taxing, and regulating for adult use garners much more GOP support than we saw a year ago when we asked about completely legalizing marijuana. Then only 28 percent of Republicans agreed; here it is 41 percent. Providing detailed context seems to make much more of a difference to Republicans than Democrats. Age also matters: senior citizens are about half as likely as other New Jersey residents to strongly support legalizing, taxing, and regulating marijuana (at 18 percent), and are the most likely to oppose it (13 percent somewhat, 38 percent strongly). Millennials residents who are 18 to 34 years old are most likely to show strong support (at 38 percent), though middle-aged New Jerseyans are not far behind, with about one-third of those aged 35 to 64 also strongly supportive of change. Millennials also show the least strong opposition by far of any other age group: just 18 percent oppose, compared to a quarter or more of every other age group. As with other issues, such as same-sex marriage, younger residents are very different from those of the Baby Boom generation. 2

3 Issue very important to both strongest supporters and opponents While a plurality thinks marijuana legalization is not very important, residents with the strongest feelings, whether pro or con, are much more likely to consider the issue very important. One-half of strong opponents of legalization see the issue as very or somewhat important, while 62 percent of residents who strongly support legal marijuana say the same. Those who do not feel strongly about legalization in either direction see the issue as far less important: only about 22 percent of these Garden Staters think legalization is a very or somewhat important issue. For many New Jerseyans, the issue is not high on their radar, but for strong supporters and opponents, it really registers, noted Redlawsk. This is one reason why laws related to marijuana are tending to lag behind public opinion, as strong supporters and opponents are equally balanced and seem equally motivated, while most other New Jerseyans stay in the background. New Jerseyans: Use tax revenue for education Advocates for legalizing, taxing, and regulating marijuana regularly emphasize that tax revenue from the sale of marijuana could generate millions of dollars to fund projects across New Jersey. Four states (Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, Washington) and the District of Columbia have legalized marijuana. Given a list of uses for new revenue that might come from legalization, 36 percent of residents say education should be the top priority, while 20 percent would first dedicate new revenue to drug treatment programs. Transportation infrastructure comes third, with 15 percent making it a top priority; nine percent would focus on social services, and three percent on corrections and prisons. There are large racial disparities in preferences for revenue allocation. Almost half of non-white residents 46 percent would prefer funds go to education, compared to 30 percent of white residents. On the other hand, non-white residents are less than half as likely as white residents to mention transportation and social services. While partisans of all stripes agree education should be the top priority, Democrats are most likely to say this, as well as to mention social services. Republicans are just a few points more likely than others to allocate revenue to transportation. Men and women are mostly on the same page, but men are slightly more likely to prefer transportation funding, while women are almost twice as likely to identify social services as the priority. Education funding is the overwhelming priority with Millennials at 54 percent while other age groups are more evenly divided between the options. Seniors are the most likely to say revenue should go to drug treatment programs (31 percent). # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES BEGIN ON THE NEXT PAGE 3

4 Questions and Tables Marijuana June 2015 The questions covered in the release of June 18, 2015 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey adults, unless otherwise indicated; all percentages are of weighted results. [UNRELATED QUESTIONS ON NEW JERSEY POLITICS AND POLICY PREVIOUSLY RELEASED CAME BEFORE THIS MODULE.] [RESPONDENTS WERE RANDOMLY ASSIGNED TO EITHER VERSION A OR VERSION B FOR BOTH THE GENERAL QUESTION AND THE QUESTION ABOUT A BILL IN THE LEGISLATURE. THE ORDER OF THE TWO ASSIGNED QUESTIONS WAS RANDOMIZED SO FOR SOME THE GENERAL QUESTION WAS FIRST AND FOR OTHERS THE ALCOHOL-PRIMED QUESTION WAS FIRST.] [COMBINED RESULTS GENERAL QUESTION INCLUDING BOTH VERSIONS A AND B BELOW] Q. Thinking about the issue in general, to what extent do you personally support or oppose legalizing, taxing, and regulating marijuana for adults 21 and over? Do you strongly support it, somewhat support it, somewhat oppose it, or strongly oppose it? Importance of Legalization Issue Very Important Somewhat Important Somewhat Unimportant Not Very Important Strongly support 32% 46% 47% 31% 18% Somewhat support 26% 4% 21% 34% 37% Somewhat oppose 12% 4% 8% 22% 14% Strongly oppose 27% 45% 22% 11% 27% Don't know 3% 0% 2% 3% 4% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Race Nonwhite Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Strongly support 39% 33% 18% 45% 32% 17% 34% 29% 33% 30% Somewhat support 25% 28% 23% 27% 29% 17% 25% 27% 26% 26% Somewhat oppose 10% 12% 12% 10% 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% Strongly oppose 23% 23% 46% 17% 23% 52% 26% 28% 28% 28% Don't know 3% 4% 1% 1% 4% 1% 3% 3% 2% 4% Unwt N= Age Education HS or Less Some Work Strongly support 38% 33% 34% 18% 26% 39% 34% 26% Somewhat support 29% 21% 26% 29% 27% 21% 24% 34% Somewhat oppose 10% 11% 12% 13% 15% 9% 10% 12% Strongly oppose 18% 31% 26% 38% 28% 27% 28% 27% Don't know 5% 3% 3% 1% 5% 3% 3% 1% Unwt N=

5 [VERSION A] Q. Thinking about the issue in general, to what extent do you personally support or oppose legalizing, taxing, and regulating marijuana for adults 21 and over? Do you strongly support it, somewhat support it, somewhat oppose it, or strongly oppose it? Strongly support 28% Somewhat support 28% Somewhat oppose 12% Strongly oppose 29% Don't know 3% Unwgt N= 396 [VERSION B] Q. Alcohol is legal, taxed, and regulated. Some have proposed doing the same with marijuana. Thinking about the issue in general, to what extent do you personally support or oppose legalizing, taxing, and regulating marijuana for adults 21 and over? Do you strongly support it, somewhat support it, somewhat oppose it, or strongly oppose it? Strongly support 35% Somewhat support 25% Somewhat oppose 11% Strongly oppose 26% Don't know 3% Unwgt N= 459 [COMBINED RESULTS BILL IN LEGISLATURE, INCLUDING BOTH VERSIONS A AND B BELOW] Q. There is currently a bill in the New Jersey State Legislature that would legalize, tax, and regulate marijuana, like alcohol, for adults 21 and over. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this bill? Strongly support 30% Somewhat support 27% Somewhat oppose 11% Strongly oppose 29% Don't know 3% Unwgt N= 853 5

6 [VERSION A] Q. There is currently a bill in the New Jersey State Legislature that would legalize, tax, and regulate marijuana for adults 21 and over. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this bill? Strongly support 29% Somewhat support 26% Somewhat oppose 12% Strongly oppose 31% Don't know 2% Unwgt N= 394 [VERSION B] Q. Alcohol is legal, taxed, and regulated. Some have proposed doing the same with marijuana. There is currently a bill in the New Jersey State Legislature that would legalize, tax, and regulate marijuana, like alcohol, for adults 21 and over. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this bill? Strongly support 31% Somewhat support 27% Somewhat oppose 11% Strongly oppose 27% Don't know 3% Unwgt N= 459 [END RANDOM ASSIGNMENT TO VERSION A OR B] [ALL RESPONDENTS] Q. How important is the issue of marijuana legalization to you personally? Is it very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or not very important? Marijuana Support Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Very important 20% 29% 3% 7% 33% Somewhat important 22% 33% 18% 16% 18% Somewhat unimportant 12% 11% 15% 22% 5% Not very important 45% 25% 64% 55% 44% Don't know 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% Unwgt N=

7 Age Education HS or Less Some Work Very important 22% 20% 19% 16% 21% 20% 23% 12% Somewhat important 20% 24% 21% 25% 23% 22% 20% 25% Somewhat unimportant 12% 15% 12% 7% 6% 14% 13% 14% Not very important 44% 39% 48% 51% 49% 41% 44% 47% Don't know 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% Unwt N= Marijuana June 2015 [ALL RESPONDENTS] Q. Regardless of your views on marijuana legalization, of the following, which would be your TOP priority for the use of tax revenue generated by the sale of marijuana? Would it be: [OPTIONS ROTATED] Marijuana Support Importance of Legalization Issue Strong Somwht Somwht Strong Very Somwht Somwht Not Very Supp. Supp. Opp. Opp. Imp. Imp. Unimp. Imp. Education 36% 44% 36% 32% 30% 37% 38% 32% 36% Drug treatment/prevention programs 20% 12% 21% 33% 22% 20% 16% 21% 22% Transportation, infrastructure 15% 18% 14% 11% 12% 9% 15% 17% 17% Social services 9% 9% 10% 7% 9% 10% 6% 15% 9% Corrections and prison 3% 1% 2% 4% 6% 4% 2% 2% 3% Something Else 13% 13% 14% 10% 15% 17% 18% 11% 10% Don't Know 5% 3% 2% 5% 7% 2% 5% 3% 4% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Race Nonwhite Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Very important 17% 22% 19% 25% 17% 23% 19% 21% 19% 21% Somewhat important 27% 20% 22% 25% 21% 24% 24% 21% 23% 22% Somewhat unimportant 17% 10% 7% 16% 11% 10% 11% 12% 13% 10% Not very important 37% 47% 51% 34% 49% 41% 45% 45% 45% 45% Don't know 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Unwt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Race Nonwhite Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Education 41% 35% 31% 38% 39% 27% 37% 35% 30% 46% Drug treatment 19% 18% 23% 19% 20% 18% 19% 21% 21% 18% Transportation 12% 15% 18% 15% 15% 15% 17% 13% 20% 8% Social services 13% 8% 7% 15% 6% 11% 6% 11% 10% 8% Corrections and prison 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% Something Else 8% 16% 13% 8% 12% 21% 15% 11% 14% 11% Don't Know 5% 5% 4% 2% 5% 6% 4% 5% 3% 6% Unwt N=

8 Age Education HS or Less Some Work Education 54% 38% 26% 23% 35% 40% 39% 29% Drug treatment 10% 19% 23% 31% 22% 21% 15% 21% Transportation 8% 15% 19% 18% 11% 16% 19% 13% Social services 8% 10% 10% 7% 9% 4% 10% 13% Corrections and prison 4% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% Something Else 11% 13% 15% 12% 11% 12% 13% 16% Don't Know 6% 2% 4% 7% 9% 4% 2% 4% Unwt N= Marijuana June 2015 March 27 April 3, 2015 The was conducted by telephone using live callers March 27 April 3, 2015 with a scientifically selected random sample of 860 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult male or female currently available. If the named gender is not available, the youngest adult of the other gender is interviewed. The poll was available in Spanish for respondents who requested it. This telephone poll included 545 landline and 315 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing using a sample obtained from Survey Sampling International. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 15% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 21% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 58% Landline Only: 6% Data were weighted to the demographics adults in New Jersey. Weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5 th and 95 th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 860 adults is +/-3.2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.27, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 3.8 percentage points for the adult sample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey adults in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46.2 and 53.8 percent (50 +/-3.8) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for 8

9 and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. The questions on marijuana reported in this release were developed by Rutgers students in cooperation with staff from the Drug Policy Alliance as part of a survey research class project overseen by ECPIP Director David Redlawsk. Questions ran as a module on the of March 27 April 3, No payment was made to ECPIP by the Drug Policy Alliance and ECPIP retained full control over the final versions of all questions. Full questionnaires are available on request, and can also be accessed at the Eagleton Poll archive at For more information, please contact eagleton.poll@rutgers.edu. Weighted Sample Characteristics 860 New Jersey Adults 33% Democrat 49% Male 18% % White 49% Independent 51% Female 27% % Black 18% Republican 36% % Hispanic 19% % Asian/Other/Multi 9