Comments on the Feasibility of Evaluating the Health Implications of Public Exposures to Fallout from the Production and Testing of Nuclear Weapons

Transcription

1 Comments on the Feasibility of Evaluating the Health Implications of Public Exposures to Fallout from the Production and Testing of Nuclear Weapons F. Owen Hoffman, Ph. D. SENES Oak Ridge, Inc. 102 Donner Dr. Oak Ridge, TN National Academy of Sciences Public Meeting Des Moines, Iowa, September 12, 2002

2 It s feasible! We knew this even before the study was commissioned in 1998 Work should proceed without further delays Critical data sets must be collected, archived and declassified Work should be open to public scrutiny and be scientifically defensible

3 Key issues The public has the right to know what their risk was in the past, is today, and will be in the future as the result of Cold War Era weapons production and testing US Government has an inherent conflict of interest that must be overcome Further studies must strive to reconstruct lost credibility

4 The Domain of Concern Should be Expanded Affected populations should include those outside the borders of the USA Estimates should be made of exposures to subpopulations at highest risk By age, gender, diet, ethnic background, location, Including local anomalies of fallout deposition introduced by precipitation interception of fresh plumes Priority should be given to estimation of the cumulative impact For those exposed to multiple sources of fallout due to weapons production and testing

5 Average doses for all ages, and diet, may be misleading

6 Per capita thyroid doses resulting from all exposure routed from all tests National Cancer Institute, 1997

7 Estimates of I-131 thyroid doses for persons born on January 1, 1952 (Average diet; high milk consumption) National Cancer Institute, 1997

8 Uncertainty can and should be quantified In the amount released and deposited In the absorbed dose to specific organs In the risk from external and internal exposures Excess life-time risk Excess relative risk Probability of causation for those who already have a diagnosed disease

9 The risk of autoimmune thyroiditis: a child born in 1952 on a diet of goat s milk 1000 Thyroid dose cgy (rad) Risk more likely above 100 cgy Risk unlikely below cgy 1 Alameda, CA Navajo, AZ Boise, ID Denver, CO Milwaukee,WI St. Louis, MO Anderson, TN Washington, DC Albany, NY Hartford, CT

10 The risk of autoimmune thyroiditis: a child born in 1952 who drank milk from a family cow 1000 Thyroid dose cgy (rad) Risk more likely above 100 cgy Risk unlikely below cgy Alameda, CA Navajo, AZ Boise, ID Denver, CO Milwaukee,WI St. Louis, MO Anderson, TN Washington, DC Albany, NY Hartford, CT

11 Exposure to fallout is not a low risk issue Radiologically, fallout exposures third in importance to Indoor radon Medical diagnostics Highest risk individuals Thyroid doses approaching and exceeding 1 Gy If the same criteria are used for compensation of Atomic Veterans and DOE workers Members of the public who today have thyroid neoplasms who were exposed as children in the 1950 s would qualify for compensation and medical care

12 Risk to a maximally exposed person Risk of Cancer Incidence Hanford (I-131) NTS (I-131) Oak Ridge (I-131) Fernald (radon) Columbia River Clinch River Oak Ridge PCBs Rocky Flats ( Pu) Rocky Flats (CCl 4 )

13 Risk to a typical person Risk of Cancer Incidence Hanford (I-131) Nevada Test Site (I-131) Oak Ridge (I-131) Fernald (Rn-222) Columbia River (Radionuclides ) Clinch River (Radionuclides ) Oak Ridge (PCBs) Rocky Flats (Pu-239/240) Rocky Flats (CCl 4 ) 10-8

14 The Interactive Risk and Dose Calculator (IRAD) A prototype calculator to consider the combined effect of exposure to Oak Ridge releases of 131 I (from 1944 to 1956 processing of radioactive lanthanum) and exposure to 131 I from NTS atmospheric testing (1952 through 1957) IRAD Go to and look under Projects

15 Study domain of the Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction

16 Inputs: Interactive Risk and Dose Calculator for Exposure to I-131 for the Oak Ridge Region IRAD version Interface 1.0 Results: Personal Information: Thyroid dose (cgy) : Calc Location Personal Information Farragu Excess Lifetime Risk Calc Gender Female Birth year 1952 For persons with a diagnosed thyroid neoplasm: Years present in O.R. area during the exposure period: to Probability of Causation (%) Full range Calc Calc Information on Diet: Milk source All Importance analysis NTS vs. Oak Ridge Calc Average milk intake (8 oz. glasses/day) 2 Developed by: For persons with a diagnosed thyroid neoplasm: Year of Diagnosis 1998 Last modified: April 3, 2001 Model Details

17 Thyroid Dose for a Female Born in 1952 whose Milk came from Farragut, TN Milk type index Bkyd Thyroid dose (cgy) 95% uncertainty range Location County Farragut Farragut Farragut Knox Knox Knox NTS fallout X-10 RaLa operations Total dose to the thyroid

18 Excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer Milk type index Bkyd Excess Lifetime Risk 95% uncertainty range Location County Farragut Farragut Farragut Knox Knox Knox NTS fallout X-10 RaLa operations Total Excess Lifetime Risk 1.5e-4 1.3e-3 7.2e-3 2.4e-4 1.9e-3 1.3e e-4 3.5e-3 2.3e-2

19 Probability that past exposure caused disease Milk type index Bkyd Probability of Causation (%) 95% uncertainty range Location County Farragut Farragut Farragut Knox Knox Knox NTS fallout X-10 RaLa operations Prob. of Caus. (all sources)

20 Probability of causation for those with a thyroid neoplasm for all milk types and combined sources of exposure to I-131 Probability Milk type index Bkyd Regional Commercial Local commercial Goat

21 Costs of performing a detailed dose reconstruction and risk evaluation need not be exorbitant

22 Approximate Costs of Dose Reconstruction Dose Reconstruction CDC/ NCI Fallout Feasibility Study NCI NationwideStudy of NTS Fallout I-131 Fernald /CDC Oak Ridge /TN State Dept. of Health/ DOE Rocky Flats / Colorado Dept. of Health/ DOE Hanford / DOE/ CDC Atomic Veterans/ DOD/ DTRA Approximate Cost $1.9 million $3 million $4 million $14 million $15 million $30 million $130 million *ORHASP 1999; USDHHS et al. 2001; Records of NTPR Program; Personal Communications with CDC 2001, Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment 2002, NCI 2002

23 It s feasible! Further work is justifiable and not cost prohibitive Work should proceed without further delays Critical data sets should be collected, archived and declassified Work should be open to public scrutiny and be scientifically defensible Domain of concern should be expanded to include non-us populations and cumulative exposures from production and testing of nuclear weapons Independent Federal Oversight Committee should be established