MEASURING THE PROGRESS OF MDGS IN SAARC MEMBER STATES

Transcription

1 Chapter 3 T MEASURING THE PROGRESS OF MDGS IN SAARC MEMBER STATES he South Asian region contains huge diversity and contrasting groups of countries. It includes the second most populous country in the world, India as well as Small Island developing state, the Maldives. Sri Lanka and Nepal are still recovering from decades of ongoing conflict, with low levels of conflict remains ongoing in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Bhutan has transformed itself from a Monarchy into a constitutional regime and Bangladesh, despite current high levels of poverty has been singled out as having the potential to become one of the world s largest economies. 1 The Millennium Development Goals, which contains a set of eight time- bound goals are drawn from the Millennium Declaration that was adopted by 189 nations and signed by 147 heads of state and governments during the UN Millennium summit in September All the states of South Asia are the signatories of Millennium Declaration. Attainment of MDGs is primarily a responsibility of individual member states. 3 The countries of South Asia have pledged to prioritize MDGs in their developmental plans. All the states of South Asia have made considerable progress 1 Andrew Jackson, Anil Singh. Measuring South Asia s Progress Towards the Millennium Development Goals, South Asian Network for Agricultural and Social Development (SANSAD). p 1. 2 John W. McArthur. 2013; What the Millennium development Goals have Accomplished, Foreign Affairs. 3, March-April Taking SDGs forward- SAARC Secretariat p P a g e

2 with regard to the attainment of most of the MDGs. 4 However, country disparities exist and no country is likely to achieve all the MDGs by It should be noted here that while the deadline for achieving MDGs is 2015, in case of Afghanistan the deadline is Afghanistan officially adopted the MDGs during the post- Taliban era, almost five years after the Millennium Declaration. As a result, Afghanistan s time line to reach official targets was extended from 2015 to In addition, to reflect the critical role played by the security context in achieving socio-economic development, Security was added as the 9 th goal for Afghanistan, while other targets had to be tailored to reflect the country s specific conditions. 5 Goal 1: Eradication of Extreme poverty and Hunger Target 1.A: Halve between 1990 & 2015 the proportion of population whose income is less than one dollar a day Indicator 1.1: Poverty head count Ratio (percentage of population below national poverty line) South Asia as a whole has made good progress in reducing the number of people living below poverty line. However, this overall reduction obscures highly variable country level experiences. Pakistan has been the biggest success story by reducing the proportion of population living below national poverty line from 26.1 percent in to 12.4% in 2010/ 11. India also has made good progress in reducing poverty. The proportion of population living below national poverty line declined from 47.8% in 1990 to 21.9% in The rapid pace of economic growth and the sustained levels of development assistance have allowed the government of Bhutan to continually increase investments in social sector & decrease poverty. The proportion of population living below national poverty line decreased from 36.3% in 2000 to 16.7% in Bangladesh has made commendable progress in respect of eradication of poverty and hunger. The sustained growth rate in excess of 6 percent 4 Kushum Shakya 2013; Achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) Countries: A case of Nepal, Journal of Pro Poor Growth, an International Perspective, 01(01) p 1. 5 Peter S Hill, Ghulam Faroq Mansoor, and Fernanda Claudio 2010; Conflict in Least- Developed Countries: Challanging the Millennium Development Goals, Bulletin World Health Organisation, August 1, 2010; 88(8): P a g e

3 achieved in recent years has played positive role in eradicating poverty. The poverty declined from 56.6% in 1992 to 35.2% in According to National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) , the proportion of population below the national absolute poverty line in Afghanistan is 36 percent, meaning that approximately nine million Afghans are not able to meet their basic needs. The NRVA shows that consumption patterns have not changed significantly since , possibly suggesting limited change in both poverty & poverty vulnerability over time. Nepal has made significant progress in meeting MDG1. The proportion of people below national poverty line declined from 42 percent in 1990 to 25.4 percent in The average rate of decline in poverty between 2005 and 2010 has been about one percent annually. Maldives, which was considered as one of the world s 20 poorest countries is on its way toward official middle- income status, building on generally sustained growth and rising prosperity. The country was successful in achieving the target of halving proportion of population below national poverty line in Sri Lanka has made considerable progress in poverty reduction over the long term. From a baseline figure of 26.1 percent in 1990/91, the proportion of people living below poverty line rose to 29 percent in 1995/ 96 & then declined sharply to 23 percent in 2002 & to 8.9 percent in The MDG target of halving poverty has been achieved much ahead of However, inter-province variations in poverty levels are large. 6 Table 18: Poverty Head Count Ratio at National Poverty Line, Percentage Country / / Afghanistan a 33 (1991) Bangladesh b Bhutan c India d (2005) 29.8 Maldives e 3 (1997) Nepal f * 12.0 * 21.9 Pakistan g Sri Lanka h a NRVA 2008, 2012 b HES , HIES 2000, 2005, & 2010, BBS * Author s explanation based on the data. 83 P a g e

4 c Poverty Analysis Report 2007, mdgs.un.org/unsd/indicator d bank.org/indicators e Vulnerability and poverty Assessment 2004, 2009 f Nepal Millennium Development Goals Progress Report g House hold surveys, Pakistan Bureau of statistics various Years h HIES, various years, Department of census& statistics * Indicator 1.2: Poverty GAP Ratio Poverty gap ratio is the mean distance separating the population from the poverty line (with the non-poor being given a distance of zero), expressed as a percentage of the poverty line. The ratio provides a useful perspective on the depth and severity of poverty in the country. 7 Available data suggests that almost all the countries in south Asia have made good progress with regard to this indicator. The decline in poverty gap ratio in Bangladesh has been quite significant. The poverty gap ratio has declined from 17.2% in , to 6.50% in Thus, Bangladesh has already achieved the target of halving the poverty gap that was targeted to be achieved in Similarly, India has also achieved the target by reducing its poverty gap ratio from 13.6% in 1994 to 4% in Poverty gap ratio declined sharply in Pakistan from 23.2% in 1991 to 4.4% in 2005 & 3.5% in Sri Lanka, with the lowest poverty gap ratio of 5.6% in 1990 has reduced its poverty gap ratio to to 1.7% in Nepal has also performed well on the indicator by reducing its poverty gap from 11.75% in 2000 to 6.1% in Maldives achieved the target much ahead of It reduced its poverty gap from 3% in 1997 to 1% in 2004 & further 0.87 in As of 2010, poverty gap ratio in Afghanistan was 8%, same as 2005 baseline value. It had however increased to 9.4% in The government of Afghanistan aims to bring down this value to roughly 5% by Available data for Bhutan shows that the Country has achieved the target by reducing the poverty gap ratio from 8.6% in 2004 to 2.6% in Chapter 4: Measures of Poverty ( poverty_ inequality_handbook _Chapter04.pdf). 8 Author s explanation based on the data. 84 P a g e

5 Table 19: Poverty GAP Ratio at National Poverty line, percentage / / Afghanistan a (2005) Bangladesh b 17.2(1991) Bhutan c - 8.6(04) - *2.60 India d 13.6 (1994) - 8.3(05) 6.2 *4.0 Maldives e 3.0 (1997) (04) 0.8 (09) - Nepal f Pakistan g 23.2(1991) 7.9 (02) (08) - Sri Lanka h (02) 3.1 * 1.70 a NRVA 2008, 2012 b HES , HIES 2000, 2005, & 2010, BBS c Poverty Analysis Report 2007 d bank.org/indicators e Vulnerability and poverty Assessment 2004, 2009 f Nepal Millennium Development Goals Progress Report g House hold surveys, Pakistan Bureau of statistics various Years h HIES, various years, Department of census& statistics * Indicator 1.3: Share of poorest quintile in national income or consumption. Despite rapid economic progress, the share of poorest quintile in national income or consumption has shown a declining trend in some countries of South Asia and in some countries, the improvement has been marginal. This implies that the income inequalities are increasing between the rich and the poor. Hence, appropriate interventions are required so that higher benefits of economic growth can reach the poorest quintile. 9 The share varied among the countries and ranged from 9.6 percent, the highest among all states of South Asia in Pakistan in 2012 and 6 percent, the lowest of all states in Bhutan in Poonam Chuhan 2006; Poverty and Inequality ( worldbank. Org /EXTABOUTS/Resources/Globalissuespovertyandinequlaity.doc). 10 Author s explanation based on the data. 85 P a g e

6 Table 20: Poorest Quintile s Share in National Income/Consumption Afghanistan a Bangladesh b (04) 6.5(07) 6.8 Bhutan c India d 8.8 (94) Maldives e 6(97) - 6 (04) - Nepal f 7.9(96) Pakistan g (02) (08) Sri Lanka h 8.9 7(02) 7.1(07) 7.7 a NRVA Surreys 2007/08, 2012 b data world bank. Org/ indicator c VPA, 2004, 2007, 2010 d Planning commission e indicators un.org f NPC & World Bank (2013) Nepal: Small area estimates of poverty 2011, Kathmandu. g Pakistan MDGs Report h Department of census and statistics HIES, various years Target 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and descent work for all, including women and youth Indicator1.4: Employment to Population Ratio The most vulnerable members of society are those most unlikely to find work. There exists huge gender gap in employment in all the countries of South Asia. While in Nepal and Bhutan, the gap is not much, the gap is more pronounced in all other countries of the region. Male employment is relatively high suggesting that the low employment to population ratio is being driven by lack of female employment Andrew Jackson, Anil Singh. Measuring South Asia s Progress Towards the Millennium Development Goals, South Asian Network for Agricultural and Social Development (SANSAD). p P a g e

7 Table 21: Employment to Population Ratio (%) All M F All M F All M F All M F Afghanistan A 55.9(92) Bangladesh B Bhutan C India D 58.3(94) Maldives E 51.3(95) (06) Nepal F 67.2(96) Pakistan G (04) Srilanka H 50.2(92) (07) a,c,d,e,f,g,h b Labor force survey, various year, BBS Indicator1.5: Proportion of employed people living below $1 per day Although, the employment- to- population ratio has grown over the years in almost all the countries of South Asia, it is surprising to learn that almost half of the employed People live below $1 per day. However, while some countries have not been able to reduce the proportion of employed people living below $1 a day, some have demonstrated a remarkable progress in this regard with Nepal registering highest rate of progress, followed by Indian and Pakistan. Table 22: Proportion of Employed People Living Below USD1 per Day (%) Afghanistan Bangladesh 70.4 (91) Bhutan (03) 10.7 (07) - India 68 (91) Maldevis 16.9 (98) Nepal 62.9 (96) 48.2 (03) Pakistan 54.7 (91) 29.9 (02) (07) Sri Lanka (02) - Source: 87 P a g e

8 Indicator 1.6: Proportion of own- account and contributing family workers Own account workers are those who, working on their own account or with one or more partners, hold the type of jobs defined as self- employment (i.e.remuneration is directly dependent upon the profits derived from the goods and services produced), and have not engaged on a continuous basis any employees to work for them during the reference period. Contributing family workers, also known as unpaid family workers, are those workers who are self- employed, as own- account workers in a market oriented establishment operated by a related person living in the same household. The share of vulnerable employment is calculated as the sum of contributing family workers and own- account workers as a percentage of total employment. Vulnerable workers earn less, have fewer benefits and work in poorer conditions than those in decent work, as well as having no social security or legal rights. 12 Although South Asian countries have reduced the proportion of own- account and contributing family workers in total employment over the years, there is still a good share of own account and contributing family workers with highest (81.9% in 2010) in Nepal and the lowest (21.7% in 2005) in Bangladesh. 13 Table 23: Proportion of Own- Account workers in total Employment (percent) Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan (06) 68.8 India 83.1 (94) Maldives 46.3 (90) (06) - Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka (07) 42.0 Source: millennium indicators.un.org /unsd/ mdg 12 Millennium Development Goals, Bangladesh Progress Report, New York. p Author s explanation based on data. 88 P a g e

9 Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 & 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Indicator 1.7: Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age Nearly two thirds (66 percent) of Bangladesh s children under five years of age were under-weight in According to Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011, it came down to 36 percent in 2011, indicating a reduction rate of 2.16 percent per year against the MDG target requirement rate of 2 percent per year. In view of recent progress made in reducing underweight prevalence rates for children underfive years of age, it seems likely that Bangladesh will reach the MDG target of 33 percent prevalence rate by In Pakistan, Prevalence of underweight children under-5 decreased slightly from 40 percent in 1990 to 30.9 percent in 2011, but is still far off the MDG target of less than 20 percent by Nepal has already achieved the target by reducing the prevalence of under- weight children under-5 years of age from 57 percent in 1990 to 29 percent in UNICEF reported in 2002 that at least 41% of those under- 5 years old were under- weight in Afghanistan. Two year later in 2004, another survey indicated that the figure has decreased to 32.9 percent. No further survey has been carried out for this indicator after 2004, however, consistent with general improvement in standard of living in Afghanistan, currently fewer under-5 children are expected to be under- weight compared to There have been notable improvements in the nutritional status of children in Maldives. The percentage of under- weight children declined from 43% in 1994 to again to 17.2% in 2009 and in on track to achieve the target by Similarly, Bhutan and Srilanka also have made commendable progress in reducing the percentage of under-5 children who are underweight from 38 percent in 1989 to 19 percent in 2000 & then again to 12.8 percent in 2010 and from 38 percent in 1993 to 21.6 percent in 2009 respectively. All India trend of the proportion of under- weight children below three years of age shows India is going slow in eliminating the effect of malnourishment. From estimated 52 percent in 1990, the proportion of underweight children below three years is required to be reduced to 26 percent by According to National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 14 Supranote 158. p Author s explanation based on the data. 16 Afghanistan Millennium Development Goals Report p P a g e

10 , the proportion of under-weight has declined to 40 percent in 2006 meaning that India is going to miss the target by Table 24: Proportion of under- weight children under five years of age Target Afghanistan a - 41 (02) 32.9 (04) - No Target Bangladesh b Bhutan c 38 (89) (10) 19 India d (99) 40 (06) - 26 Maldives e 43 (94) 25 (01) (09) 16 Nepal f Pakistan g Sri Lanka h 38 (93) (09) 19 a UNICEF Survey 2004 b BDHS for 2004, 2007, & 2011 c http/ millennium indicators.un org/unsd/mdg d NHFS ( ) * data is shown for children under three years of age. e National Nutrition survey 1994, DHS 2009 f MOHP New Era &ICF International (2011) g National Nutrition surveys , , h Demographic and Health surveys various years. Indicator 1.8: Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption. The information from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2005 using Direct Calorie Intake (DCI) method indicates that there was a modest decrease in Bangladesh in the proportion of population not having the minimum level of dietary energy consumption (2,122 Kcal/day), from 47.5 percent in 1990 to 40.4 percent in Since 2005, per capital daily calorie intake has significantly increased due to changing food habit of people as well as due to increase in quantity of food consumption. The proportion of malnourished people declined to 29 percent in The country is still far away from the 2015 target of 24 percent. 18 In Pakistan, the proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption of 2, Author s explanation based on the data 18 The Millennium Development Goals, Bangladesh Progress Report p P a g e

11 calories per adult per day decreased very little from 27.2 percent in 1990 to 17.2 percent in The proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption (2100 Cal. /day) in Afghanistan was 30 percent in 2005 which increased to 39 percent in 2008 & then again decreased to 29 percent in The target to bring the figure to 11 percent by 2015 & subsequently to 9 percent by 2020 does not seem possible. Nepal and Maldives have already achieved the target by reducing the proportion of population below minimum level of dietary consumption from 49 in 1990 to 15.7 percent in 2012 and from 11.3 percent in 1991 to 5.4 percent in 2012 respectively. India reduced the proportion of population below minimum level of dietary consumption from 25.5 percent in 1990 to 17 percent in Keeping in view the past performance, the country is likely to miss the MDG target by With as high as 50.9 percent population undernourished in 1990, Sri Lanka has not been able to reduce the percentage over the years which was 50.7 percent in The country is off track on this indicator and is going to miss it by In Bhutan there is lack of data for this indicator. However, the data which is available shows that the proportion of undernourished population was 3.8 percent in 2003 which increased to 5.9 percent in The country is required to reduce the percentage to 1.9 percent by Table 25: Proportion of People below Minimum Level of Dietary Consumption(%) Target Afghanistan a (08) 29 (10 9 (2020) Bangladesh b Bhutan c (03) 5.9 (07) India d Maldives e 11.3 (91) Nepal f Pakistan g (02) Sri Lanka h (06) a Afghanistan MDGs Report 2012 b HES and HIES various years,bbs c MDG status Report 2005, AHB 2007 d,f indicators.un.org/unsd/mdg g House hold income and expenditure surveys various years e MOHD New era & ICF International, Author s explanation based on data. 91 P a g e

12 Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education Target 2.A: Ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling Indicator 2.1: Net Enrollment Ratio in Primary Education (NER) Net Enrollment Ratio (NER) in primary education is universally taken as the major indicator to assess whether the country is tending to achieve 2015 target of universal primary education for all children aged 6-10 years. 20 Almost all the countries in South Asia have made good progress in increasing the enrollment of children in primary education. However, there are cross country variable results. Out of the eight countries, six have been able to achieve universal primary enrollment, with india having the highest score, while Pakistan and Afghanistan have lagged behind all other states. 21 Table 26: Net Enrollment Ratio in Primary Education, Percentage Target Afghanistan a - 54 (03) 60 (07) (2020) Bangladesh b (11) 100 Bhutan c 55 (98) India d Maldives e (09) Nepal f Pakistan g Sri Lanka h (02) 97.5(07) a Afghanistan Millennium Development goals Report 2012 b BANBEIS & DPE (Bangladesh Bureacu of educational information & statistics (2011) Deptt of primary education) c,e,h http: millennium indicator un.org/unsd/mdg d DISE, MOHRD, GOI g DIHs/190/91, PSLM2004/ /12 f MOES. 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010, MOE United Nations Millennium Development Goals Report New York. p Author s explanation based on data. 92 P a g e

13 Indicator 2.1: Proportion of Pupils Starting Grade 1 Who Reach Last Grade of Primary Despite impressive progress in NER in primary education in all the countries, survival to last grade of primary (grade 5) has, however, not kept pace with the impressive progress achieved so for in the case of NER. 22 Access to education is only part of the solution. Completion of a full course of primary schooling is necessary to achieve universal primary education. Millions of children start school but eventually drop out. In many SAARC countries, school systems are chronically underfinanced and under resourced and often fail to deliver a high quality education. Out of every 100 outof school children, 63 are a dropped out children from the formal school system which suggest a dismal level of incentives for completing primary schooling. Table 27: Proportion of Pupils Starting Grade 1 Who Reach Grade Target Afghanistan a - 45 (03) (2020) Bangladesh b 43 (91) (11) 100 Bhutan c 31 (93) (11) 100 India d 62 (99) 81 (02) 73 (04) 72 (07) 76 (09) 100 Maldives e (09) Nepal f Pakistan g Sri Lanka h (02) a Afghanistan Millennium Development goals Report 2012 b Annual Census Report DPE, Ministry of Primary and Mass education, 2011 c,e,h d DISE, MOHRD, GOI g NEMIS 190/91, PSLM2004/ /12 f NPC 2001, MOES 2000, 2005,2010, MOSE Anil K Singh, Ram Gati Singh, 2008; SAARC Development Goals: Commitments and Achievements, South Asian Network for Agricultural and Social Development (Sansad). p P a g e

14 Indicator 2.3: Literacy rate of years old, Women & Men The literacy rate of those aged is the percentage of persons aged 15 to 24 who show their ability to both read a write by understanding a short simple statement. The overall literacy rate in Afghanistan was 34 percent in 2003 which increased by 3 percent from 2003 to 2007 & by another 2 percent from 2007 to Sharp increase was observable from 2010 to 2012 during which literacy rate increased by 8 percent bringing the rate to 47 percent (M. 61.9%, F. 32.1%) Literacy rate of year olds in Sri Lanka was 97.5 percent (M.97%, F. 97.9%) in 2006 which slightly increased to 98.2 percent (M. 97.7%, F. 98.6%) in Pakistan has lagged behind all other countries. Its literacy rate was 35 percent (M.48%, F.21%) in 1990 which increased slowly to 58 percent (M.70%, F.47%) in The baseline data are not available on the literacy rate of year olds in Bangladesh. Hence literacy rate of 15 + years olds has been used as a proxy indicator to estimate the current literacy status. According to Sample Vital Registration System (SVRS) 2011 (BBS 2012), the adult male & female literacy rates are 62.5 percent & 55.1 percent respectively, while the overall literacy rate is 58.8 percent. In 1991 the overall literacy rate was 37.2 percent (M.43.3% F. 25.8%). In Maldives, literacy rates among year olds are nearly universal & gender party in literacy exists. According to available data, literacy rate was 98.2 percent (M.98%, F.98.3) in 1990, which increased to 98.7 percent (M.98.2, F. 98.5%) in Nepal increased its literacy rate from 49.6 percent (M. 68.2%, F.32.7%) in 1991 to 82.4 percent (M. 68.2%, F 32.7%) in 1991 to 82.4 percent (M. 89.2%, F. 77.5) in Available data for 2005 for Bhutan shows that the country has youth literacy rate of 74.4 percent (M. 80.0%, F. 68.4%), which increased to 79.3% in India has improved its literacy rate from 61.9 percent (M. 73.5%, F. 49.3%) in 1991 to 81.1 percent (M. 88.4%, F. 74.7%) in Since then literacy rate has not improved and declined to 79.3 percent (M. 85.1%, F. 73%) in Supranote P a g e

15 Table 28: Literacy Rate of Year Olds a Afghanistan MDGs Report 2012 b SVRS, BBS (2012 c,d,h http/data world bank.org/indicator e http/millennium indicators.un.org/unsd/mdg g PHS 1990/91, 200/02 PSLM 2004/ /12 f NPC 1991, 2002, MOHP 2007, 2011 f NPC 2001, MOES 2000, 2005, All M F All M F All M F All M F All M F Afghanistan a (03) (07) Bangladesh b Bhutan c India d (01) (06) Maldives e (09) Nepal f (01) Pakistan g Srilanka h 92.7(9) (01) (06) P a g e

16 Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015 Indicator 3.1: Gender Parity Index at primary, secondary & tertiary education General Party Index (GPI) in enrollment at primary, secondary & tertiary levels is the ratio of the number of female students enrolled at primary, secondary and tertiary levels in public and private schools to the number of male students. A GPI of 1 indicates party between the sexes or no gender disparity. A GPI that varies between O & 1 typically means a disparity in favor of males where as a GPI greater than 1 indicates a disparity in favor females. 24 While some countries in South Asia have already achieved Gender Parity Index (GPI) at primary and secondary levels and are on track to achieve parity at tertiary level, some countries are off track on all the three indicators. Bangladesh has already achieved the target for gender parity at primary and secondary levels of education. However, GPI at the territory level by 2015 deadline seems impossible to be achieved. Although the country has made impressive progress in increasing the GPI from 0.20 in 1990 to 0.69 in 2011, the country needs to take specific interventions to achieve the target by Nepal has been another success story in achieving GPI in primary and secondary enrolment. The GPI at primary level increased from 0.5 in 1990 to 1.02 in At the secondary level, GPI increased from 0.43 in 1990 to 0.99 in Gender gap exists at tertiary level where the GPI increased from 0.32 in 1990 to 0.71 in Sri Lanka has also achieved GPI at primary and secondary level. GPI at primary level improved from 0.84 in 1990 to 1.05 in 2005 & to 1.06 in GPI at the secondary level increased from 0.51 in 1990 to 1.03 in 2000 & has consistently improved since then to reach to 1.14 in The country has failed to achieve parity at the tertiary level. GPI in tertiary enrollment improved from 0.20 in 1990 to 0.69 in In Afghanistan, while there has been a steady rise in ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education particularly from 2008, the country is off track and may fall short of 1.00 GPI to be achieved by The GPI at the primary level increased from Millennium Development Goals, India Country Report p P a g e

17 in 2003 to 0.66 in 2010 & to 0.71 in At the secondary level, GPI improved from 0.33 in 2003 to 0.50 in 2010 & to 0.57 in There is a wide gender gap in tertiary enrollment at which GPI increased slightly from 0.21 in 2003 to 0.36 in Similarly, Pakistan is off track on all the three indicators. GPI at primary level improved from 0.73 in 1990 to 0.90, at secondary level from 0.42 in 1990 to 0.81 in 2012 & at tertiary level from 0.40 in 1990 to 0.95 in Maldives had less gender disparity even during 1990s. GPI in primary enrollment was 1.00 in 1992 which has been consistently fluctuating & declined to 0.97 in At the secondary level, GPI increased from 1.04 in 1994 to 1.13 in 2004 & then decreased back to 1.00 in The country is on track to achieve GPI at tertiary level which was 0.96 in Bhutan has achieved GPI at primary and secondary levels but is off track to achieve GPI at tertiary level by At the primary level, GPI increased from 0.60 in 1990 to 1.02 in GPI at secondary level improved from 0.76 in 1998 to 1.06 in At the tertiary level, GPI improved slowly from 0.58 in 1999 to 0.69 in In India the GPI at primary, secondary and tertiary levels increased from 0.76 in 1990 to 0.98 in 2011, 0.60 in 1990 to 0.94 in 2011 & from 0.54 in 1990 to 0.77 in 2011 respectively. 25 Table 29: Gender Parity Index at Primary Level Target Afghanistan a (08) Bangladesh b Bhutan c India d (11) 1.00 Maldives e 1.00(92) (09) Nepal f Pakistan g Sri Lanka h (11) 1.00 a Afghanistan MDGs Report, 2012 b BANBEIS, MDE and DPE, M/o PME c,h,h indicators.un.org/unsd/mdg d MOHRD, GOI f Nepal MDGs progress report 2013 g Net enrollment 5-9age: Pakistan Bureau of statistics 25 Author s explanation based on data. 97 P a g e

18 Table 30: Gender Parity Index at Secondary Level Target Afghanistan A (03) (08) Bangladesh B 0.52(91) (11) 1.00 Bhutan C India D (11) 1.00 Naldives E 1.04(94) Nepal F Pakistan G Sri Lanka H a Afghanistan MDGs Report, 2012 b BANBEIS, MDE and DPE, M/o PME c,h,h indicators.un.org/unsd/mdg d MOHRD, GOI f Nepal MDGs progress report 2013 g Net enrollment 5-9age: Pakistan Bureau of statistics Table 31: Gender Parity Index at Tertiary Level Target Afghanistan a (03) (08) Bangladesh b (11) 1.00 Bhutan c 0.58 (99) India d (11) 1.00 Maldives e (09) Nepal f Pakistan g Sri Lanka h (11) 1.00 a Afghanistan MDGs Report, 2012 b BANBEIS, MDE and DPE, M/o PME c,h,h indicators.un.org/unsd/mdg d MOHRD, GOI f Nepal MDGs progress report 2013 g Net enrollment 5-9age: Pakistan Bureau of statistics 98 P a g e

19 Indicator 3.2: Share of Women in Wage Employment in the Non- agricultural Sector In all the countries of South Asia, the share of women in wage employment in non- agricultural sector has changed very little during the period from Among the South Asian Countries, the progress made by Nepal is placed at a comfortable place with share of women in wage employment in non- agricultural sector at 40.8 percent in Nepal is followed by Maldives with a shre of 40.5 percent in In all other countries of the region, women have been at a disadvantage as compared to their male counterparts. 26 Table 32: Share of Women in Wage Employment in the Non- agricultural Sector Afghanistan a (02) (08) - Bangladesh b Bhutan c (09) 26.3 India d Maldives e Nepal f (11) Pakistan g Sri Lanka h 30.8 (93) 32.8 (01) 32.2 (06) Source: a,c,e millennium.un.org/unsd/mdg b Labor Force Survey various years, BBS d NSSO, f CBS 2001, 2009, 2011 g Pakistan MDGs Report 2013 h Quarterly Labor Force Survey, Department of Census & Stastics Indicator 3.3: Proportion of Seats held by Women in National Parliament A major indicator of women s empowerment is their participation in the political domain. 27 The situation of women empowerment and equality appears 26 Ibid. 27 Nepal Millennium Development Goals Progress Report, p P a g e

20 promising in Bangladesh when one looks at the share of women in the highest policy making body- the national parliament. Women s representation in the parliament was 12.7 percent in which increased to 20 percent in Sri Lanka produced the first woman Prime Minister in the world who served as Prime Minister for 18 years and the first executive President who governed the country for 11 years ( ). Yet the representation of women in the state legislature is very low. 29 The proportion seats held by women in national parliament was 4 percent in 2002 which increased slowly and reached to 5.8 percent in India, The world s largest democracy ranked 98 th in the world for proportion of National Parliamentary seats held by women according to data released by Inter Parliamentary Union (IPU) in The country had 9.7 percent women in national Parliament in 1991 which increased slightly to 11 percent to Historically, for much of Pakistan s existence, women did not have meaningful representation in the country s legislative forums. In 1990, the total number of women in Parliament was two (0.9 percent of the total strength of the Parliament). The situation greatly improved with the passage of affirmative action bills, which ensured women s & minority representation in the Parliament (60 seats were reserved for women in National assembly). 33 In Nepal, the proportion of seats held by women in national Parliament in 1990 was just 3.4 percent. The interim constitution of 2007 requires that political parties ensure that women constitute at least one- third of their total representation in Parliament. The representation of women was 17.3 percent in 2007 which almost doubled and reached 33.2 percent in In Afghanistan, the baseline value was set at 25 percent as constitution of Afghanistan for national assembly reserves at least 25 percent of the seats for women. In 2013, a value of 27.7 percent was registered meaning that a little progress has been made since Bhutan had the lowest percentage of women in national parliament in The share 28 The Millennium Development Goals, Bangladesh Progress Report p Millennium Development Goals, Srilanka Country Report 2008/2009. p Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) ( data. worldbank.org/indicator/sg.gen.parl.zs/countries) 31 Millennium Development Goals, India Country Report p SAARC Development goals, India country report p Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report pp Nepal Millennium Development Goals progress Report p Afghanistan Millennium Development Goals Report p P a g e

21 was 2 percent, which increased to 8.5 percent Maldives increased the share of women in national Parliament from 6.3 percent in 1990 to 12 percent in Table 33: Share of Women in National Parliament Afghanistan a - 25 (03) Bangladesh b (91) (01) (08) (13) Bhutan c India d 9.7 (91) 9.6 (91) Maldives e (01) Nepal f Pakistan g (02) Sri Lanka h - 4 (02) 4.9 (05) a Afghanistan MDGs Report, 2012 b NOWCA, 2012 c,e,f d SAARC Development goals India country report 2013 h world bank.org/indicator Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality Target 4.A: Reduce by two- thirds between 1990 & 2015, the under-five mortality rate Indicator.4.1: Under-five Mortality Rate (Per 1,000 live births). All the countries in South Asia have made considerable progress in child Survival rate as the mortality has declined over the last ten to twelve years. 37 The successful programs for immunization, control of diarrheal diseases and vitamin A supplementation are considered to be the most significant contributors to the decline in child and infant deaths Share of women in national parliament. ( un.org / unsd/mdg). 37 Committing to Child Survival: A Promise Renewed-Progress Report Reduce Child Mortality- UNDP in Bangladesh ( org/ content/bangladesh/en/home/.../overview.mdg4). 101 P a g e

22 The data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2011 shows that the under-five mortality rate declined from 146 per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 53 per 1,000 live births in Although, Afghanistan has made impressive strides in reducing under- 5 mortality rate from 257 per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 102 in 2012, it still continues to be highest compared to other countries of the region. Pakistan is likely to miss the target of declining under-5 mortality to 52 per 1,000 live births by Under- 5 mortality rate declined slowly from 117 per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 89 per 1,000 live births in Maldives and Nepal have achieved the target much by declining under-5 mortality rate from 48 per 1,000 live births 10.5 in 2012 and from 162 in 1990 to 54 per 1,000 in Bhutan and Sri lanka are on track to achieve the target by 2015 where under-5 mortality rate declined from per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 44.6 in 2012 and from 22.2 per 1,000 live births in 1991 to 9.6in 2012 respectively. In India, the under- 5 mortality rate declined from 125 per 1,000 live births in 1990to 55 in Given to reduce under-5 mortality to 42 per 1,000 live births by 2015, the country needs to redouble efforts. 40 Table 34: Under-5 Mortality Rate, Per 1,000 Live Births Target Afghanistan a (03) 161 (04) (2020) Bangladesh b (11) 48 Bhutan c India d (11) 42 Maldives e (09) 10.5* *16 Nepal f (11) - 54 Pakistan g Sri Lanka h 22.2 (91) * 9.6* *8.0 a AMS and AMICS Afghanistan MDGs Report, 2012 b BDHS, NIRT, MOHFW ( to 2011) c,d http/ millennium indicators.un.org/unsd/mdg e Maldives Demographic Health Survey 2009, * f Nepal MDG Progress report 2013 g PDHS/ 1990/91, 2006/07 & 2012/13 h DES (2009), * http/data world bank.org/indicator 39 Millennium Development Goals, Bangladesh Progress Report p Author s explanation based on data. 102 P a g e

23 Indicator 4.2: Infant Mortality Rate (Per 1,000 Live Births) As in under- 5 mortality rate, all the countries have made significant progress in reducing IMR. Over the period of , Sri Lanka has been one of the most successful developing countries in the world in terms of infant & child mortality reduction. At its current level of 8.3 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, the IMR is lower than that achieved by countries considerably wealthier than Sri Lanka. 41 Srilanka is followed by Maldives which reduced infant mortality from 34 in 1990 to 9 in Afghanistan, with highest IMR in 2003 has made faster reductions in IMR from 165 per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 74 per 1,000 live births in If this reduction rate sustains, Afghanistan will be able to achieve the target of reducing IMR to 46 per 1,000 live births by All other countries have registered a significant progress over the years except Pakistan which has is off track on this indicator- reducing infant mortality from 102 in 1990 to 74 per 1,000 live births in Table 35: Infant Mortality Rate, Per 1,000 Live Births (Target) Afghanistan a - 165(03) 111(08) 77 74(11) 46(2020) Bangladesh b 92 (91) (11) - 31 Bhutan c India d Maldives e (09) *9 11 Nepal f (11) - 36 Pakistan g Sri Lanka h 17.7(91) (09) * a IMR-AMICS-2010/2011 b BDHS, MOHFW, to 2011 c Bhutan MDG Status 2005 report, AHB, 2008, 2012 MOH d MDG Report 201 and 2013 e MDGs Maldives country report 2010, * f Nepal MDGs Progress Report 2013 g PDHS 1990/91, 2006/07, 2012/13. h DCS (2009). * 41 Millennium Development Goals, Sri Lanka Country Report 2008/2009. p Author s explanation based on data. 103 P a g e

24 Indicator 4.3: Proportion of One Year Old Immunized Against Measles The proportion of one year old immunized against measles is the percentage of children aged months who have received at least one dose of the measles vaccine. 43 A major factor responsible for sharp declines in child mortality in all the countries has been attributed to the successful launch of immunization programs. The BDHS 2011 shows that there has been remarkable progress in Bangladesh in the proportion of one- year old children immunized against measles, which rose from 54 percent in 1991 to 87.5 percent in Bhutan has been a success story in achieving universal child immunization. The proportion of one-year old children immunized against measles rose from 84 percent in 1990 to 95 percent in The data from Afghanistan shows that the country increased the immunization coverage from 35 percent in 2003 to 62 percent in Infact, achieving the target of 100% by 2020 is challenging because of insecurity and the capacity for immunization to cover the entire child population in Afghanistan. The national level measure of the proportion of one- year old (12-23 months) children immunized against measles in India has registered an increase from 42.2 percent in 1992 to 51 percent in 2000, 59 percent in 2005, 74 percent in 2010 & remained same in These data indicate that India still lags far behind the goal of universal immunization coverage for children. Nepal is on track to achieving universal immunization for children. The Immunization coverage increased from 42 percent in 1990 to 71 in 2000, 85 in 2005 & 88 percent in Maldives has maintained almost universal immunization against measles since The proportion of one- year old Immunized against measles was 96 percent in 1990, which has been sustained over the years and increased to 98 percent in Similarly, Sri Lanka has a good record in Immunization coverage. The proportion of one- year old immunized against measles increased from 84percent in 1990 to 97.2 percent in 2005, and to 99 percent in Bhutan increased its immunization coverage from 84 percent in 1990 to 85 percent in 2000, 93 percent in 2005 & 95 percent in In Pakistan, the proportion of one- year children immunized against measles has fluctuated between 71 percent & 80 percent The proportion of one year old immunized against measles. (www. mdgs. un.org/.../4-3-proportion-of-one-year-old-immunized-against-measles-ashx). 44 Author s explanation based on data. 104 P a g e

25 Table 36: Proportion of One Year Old (12-23 months) Immunized against Measles Percentage Target Afghanistan a - 35(03) 56(08) (2020) Bangladesh b (11) 100 Bhutan c * 95* >95 India d 42.2 (92) Maldives e * 98* 100 Nepal f (11) >90 Pakistan g >90 Sri Lanka h * 99* 100 a NRVA 2008, AMIS b EPI Coverage evaluation survey DGHS and BDHS, 2011, MOHFW c Bhutan MDG Status 2005 Rport. * http/millenniumindicators.un.org/unsd/mdg d NFHS 1992/ /12 e MICS 2001, MDH * f Nepal MDGs Progress Report 2013 g PDHS 2006/07, PSLM 2004/ /12 h DHS 2006/07. * Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 & 2015, the maternal mortality ratio Indicator 5.1: Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100, 000 live births) Maternal mortality is among the health indicators that show the greatest gap between the rich and the poor- both between countries and within them. Half of all maternal deaths occur in sub-saharan Africa and another third in Southern Asia. Together, these two regions account for 85 per cent of all maternal deaths. Within South Asia, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Maldives have been able to achieve the target of reducing maternal mortality by In all other countries, maternal mortality is a serious cause of concern with Afghanistan having the highest maternal mortality rate of 105 P a g e

26 500 per 100,000 live births in 2010.Thus, achievement of target of reducing MMR by two-third in SAARC countries by 2015 seems to be a distant dream. 45 Table 37: Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000 births) (Target) Afghanistan a (03) (2020) Bangladesh b (11) Bhutan c *140 * India d Maldives e (09) Nepal f Pakistan g Sri Lanka h 42 (91) 14 (02) - * a NRVA 2008, AMS 2010, MICS 2011 b SVRS, BBS, different years c Bhutan MDG Status 2005 Report. */http/ millenniumindicators.un.org/unsd/mdg d Sample Registration system (SRS), Office of Registrar General of India e Reproductive Health Survey 2004, DES 2009 f Nepal MDGs, progress report 2013 g Pakistan MDG Report h RGD, DHS (various years). * http/millenniumindicators.un.org /unsd/mdg Indicator 5.2: Births Attended by Skilled Health Personnel The most effective way to reduce maternal mortality is to have births attended by skilled health personnel. Among other things, ensuring antenatal care of prospective mothers at health centers & recommended dose of IFT are important factors that help improve maternal health & reduce life risk during pregnancy. 46 The rate of increase in coverage of deliveries by skilled health personnel in India is rather slow. From 33 percent deliveries attended by skilled personnel in , the proportion has increased to about 47 percent in & 52 percent by At this rate of change, India is likely to attain 62 percent delivery attendance by skilled 45 Author s explanation based on data. 46 Pietro Gennari (ed), Statistical Year Book for Asia and the Pacific 2008, United Nations Publications, 01-Oct ISBN= p P a g e

27 personnel by 2015 which is far short of the targeted universal coverage. According to BDHS 2011, 31.7 percent of births in Bangladesh were attended by medically trained personnel in This represents an improvement of 26 percentage points since 1991 when only 5 percent of births were attended by skilled health personnel. The base line value for Afghanistan was set at 6% in 2003 by Ministry of Public Health (MOPH). It was 24 percent in 2008 according to a survey done by NRVA. The data from Afghanistan Mortality Survey 2010 (AMS 2010) shows an increase to 34 percent. The percentage rose to 47 percent according to Afghanistan Household Survey (AHS) conducted in Maldives achieved the target of universal coverage of births by skilled health personnel in The percentage of deliveries attended by trained health personnel was 90 percent in 1990 which went down to 70.3 in 2001 & then rose again to 84 percent in 2004, 98.5 percent in 2009 & 99% in Nepal has made good progress since 1990 in increasing the percentage of births attended by trained medical personnel. The percentage was 7 percent in 1990, which increased to 11 percent in 2000, 19 in 2005, 36 in 2010 & 50 percent in 2012, making it likely that Nepal will achieve its goal of 60 percent in Pakistan is off track on this indicator. The proportion of births attended by skilled personnel increased from 18 percent in 1990 to 24 percent in 2001, 41 percent in 2005 & 52 percent in Achieving the target of more than 90 percent by 2015 is very much unlikely. The system of trained midwives assisting in home deliveries, the increased number of hospital deliveries and access to emergency obstetric care has contributed to Sri Lanka s notable achievements in reducing maternal mortality. The proportion increased from 94.1 in 1993 to 98.6 percent in In Bhutan the proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel increased from 15 percent in 1990 to 24 percent in 2000 and to 55.9 percent in There is lack of data but looking at the rate of progress, the country is off track from 2015 target Author s explanation based on data. 107 P a g e