The use of models in contingency planning. Anette Boklund, DVM, ph.d.

Transcription

1 The use of models in contingency planning Anette Boklund, DVM, ph.d.

2 Models in relation to contingency Risk related to Import of disease to Herd Country Europe Spread Within a herd Between herds Between countries 2 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

3 Models in relation to contingency Risk related to Import of disease to Herd Country Europe Spread Within herd Between herds Between countries 3 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

4 Risk of introduction 4 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

5 Risk of spread within a herd Transport vehicle Infected herd Neighbouring herd Movements of pigs Person contacts S I R 5 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

6 Risk of spread within a herd Transport vehicle Infected herd Neighbouring herd Movements of pigs Person contacts S I R 6 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

7 Risk of spread within a herd Transport vehicle Infected herd Neighbouring herd Movements of pigs Person contacts S I R 7 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

8 Risk of spread within a herd Transport vehicle Infected herd Neighbouring herd Movements of pigs Person contacts S I R 8 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

9 Risk of spread within a herd Transport vehicle Infected herd Neighbouring herd Movements of pigs Person contacts S I R 9 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

10 Risk of spread of spread between herds Transport vehicle Infected herd Neighbouring herd Movements of pigs Person contacts 10 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

11 Risk of spread of spread between herds Herd-data ID-numbers Numbers of animals Coordinates Herd-types Movement data - movements of live animals - movements to slaughter - milk tankers - distances Data related to FMD Transport vehicle Neighbouring herd Infected herd Danish contingency - probability to detect disease - probability of compliance - probability of reporting Person contacts - incubation period - time to clinical signs - spread time within herd Movements of pigs 11 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

12 Methods DTU-DADS All epidemics start on 1 herd Several epidemics simulated Transport vehicle Infected herd Neighbouring herd Movements of pigs Person contacts 12 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

13 Methods DTU-DADS Local spread 3km incl. limited airborne spread unregistered person contacts rats, birds, cats, etc. Transport vehicle Neighbouring herd Infected herd Movements of pigs Person contacts 13 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

14 Control measures Surveillance Depopulation Movement restrictions Vaccination 14 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

15 Control measures Surveillance Depopulation Movement restrictions Vaccination BASIC scenario DEPOPULATION scenarios VACCINATION scenarios To live To die 15 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

16 Results 16 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

17 Results DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

18 Export is driving the economics in DK 18 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

19 Ressource estimations 19 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

20 Used for contingency planning 20 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

21 DTU-DADS - ASF The DTU-DADS model has been further developed to also model spread of ASF 21 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

22 DTU-DADS - ASF The DTU-DADS model has been further developed to also model spread of ASF Including within-herd spread And residues from dead animals 22 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

23 DTU-DADS - ASF The DTU-DADS model has been further developed to also model spread of ASF Including within-herd spread 23 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

24 Infection process Susceptible pig Subclinical pig (μ) Clinical pig Residues of dead pigs (ε) S I R 24 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

25 Infection process Susceptible pig Subclinical pig (μ) Clinical pig Residues of dead pigs (ε) S I R 25 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

26 DTU-DADS - ASF Within-herd spread, including residues from dead animals, are then used in a between-herd spread model similar to the FMD-model Transport vehicle Neighbouring herd Infected herd Movements of pigs Person contacts 26 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

27 DTU-DADS - ASF Within-herd spread, including residues from dead animals, are then used in a between-herd spread model similar to the FMD-model Transport vehicle Neighbouring herd Infected herd Movements of pigs Person contacts 27 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

28 DTU-DADS - ASF Within-herd spread, including residues from dead animals, are then used in a between-herd spread model similar to the FMD-model Transport vehicle Neighbouring herd Infected herd Movements of pigs Person contacts 28 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

29 Risk of introduction - CSF Bronvoort et al. (2008) 29 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

30 Risk of introduction - CSF Bronvoort et al. (2008) Returning livestock trucks highest risk for importing CSF Legal meat imports 30 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

31 Risk of introduction - CSF Bronvoort et al. (2008) Returning livestock trucks highest risk for importing CSF Legal meat imports in DK de Vos et al. (2004) Returning livestock trucks highest risk for importing CSF in NL 31 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

32 Risk of introduction - CSF Bronvoort et al. (2008) Returning livestock trucks highest risk for importing CSF Legal meat imports in DK de Vos et al. (2004) Returning livestock trucks highest risk for importing CSF in NL 32 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

33 Risk of introduction - ASF Mur et al. (2012) Returning trucks Poland and Lithuania - HR Waste from international planes Waste from international ships Costard et al. (2013) Illegal import of pork and products 33 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

34 34 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

35 35 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

36 Risk of spread in HRP - ASF Nigsch et al. (2013) Spread from 1 st infected herd 1 st detection (HRP) HRP 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 days Limited numbers of infected herds (1-4) Super-spreader: DK, NL, LT, LV Super-recievers: DE, PL 36 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

37 Ongoing and future work Dorea et al. (2016) DTU-DADS model simulating FMD Sweden Limited size and duration of Swedish outbreaks No additional effect of adding pre-emptive culling or vaccination 37 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

38 Ongoing and future work Simons et al. (2016) Modeling the spread of ASF in the Belgian pig livestock industry Using the DTU-DADS-ASF model The model is also being used in France - ASF Germany FMD & ASF 38 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

39 Thank you for your attention 39 DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius

40 References Boklund, A., Halasa, T., Christiansen, L.E., Enøe, C., Comparing control strategies against foot-and-mouth disease: Will vaccination be cost-effective in Denmark? Preventive Veterinary Medicine 111, Costard, S., Jones, B.A., Martínez-López, B., Mur, L., de la Torre, A., Martínez, M., Sánchez- Vizcaíno, F., Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J.M., Pfeiffer, D.U., Wieland, B., Introduction of African Swine Fever into the European Union through Illegal Importation of Pork and Pork Products. PLoS One 8, e Halasa, T., Boklund, A., Bøtner, A., Toft, N., Thulke, H.H., 2016a. Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals. Front Vet Sci 3, 6. Halasa, T., Bøtner, A., Mortensen, S., Christensen, H., Toft, N., Boklund, A., 2016b. Simulating the epidemiological and economic effects of an African swine fever epidemic in industrialized swine populations. Veterinary Microbiology 193, Halasa, T., Toft, N., Boklund, A., Improving the effect and efficiency of FMD control by enlarging protection or surveillance zone. Frontiers in Veterinary Science 2. Mur, L., Martínez-López, B., Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J., Risk of African swine fever introduction into the European Union through transport-associated routes: returning trucks and waste from international ships and planes. BMC Veterinary Research 8, 149. Nigsch, A., Costard, S., Jones, B.A., Pfeiffer, D.U., Wieland, B., Stochastic spatio-temporal modelling of African swine fever spread in the European Union during the high risk period. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 108, DTU - VET Nordic-Baltic seminar, Vilnius