Drivers of TB Transmission
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- Christiana Walters
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1 Drivers of TB Transmission David Dowdy, MD PhD National TB Conference Atlanta, GA April 20, 2017 Motivation Ending TB transmission in the US is necessary (but not sufficient) for TB elimination. We will never get to <1 per million without ending TB transmission within US borders. Many public health activities aim to achieve this goal. Contact investigation, respiratory isolation, genotyping, etc. To optimize this public health response, we must first understand the drivers of TB transmission. If we can understand what drives TB transmission, we can focus our activities accordingly. Question for the audience: What proportion of incident TB in the USA in 2016 is due to transmission? a) <10% b) 10-20% c) 20-30% d) None of the above 1
2 Question for the audience: What proportion of incident TB in the USA in 2016 is due to transmission? a) <10% b) 10-20% c) 20-30% d) None of the above: 100% of incident TB is due to transmission! Understanding TB Transmission An estimated 14% of TB in was due to recent transmission. Genotypically linked and epidemiologically plausible But recent transmission underestimates the fraction of TB due to avertible transmission. Infections averted today may be incident cases of active TB averted decades later. We may therefore also be underselling the importance of interventions aimed to end TB transmission. Contact investigation, infection control, etc. But also TTT of LTBI: stops transmission before it can occur 14% due to recent transmission in the US: Avertible 2
3 Most TB in USB due to remote transmission: Reflects transmission within US borders Some TB in FB due to remote transmission: Also reflects transmission within US borders If TB transmission within the US ended today, we would likely reduce incidence by 30% or more in the long term. This is the true value of interventions to end TB transmission within the US. 3
4 Understanding Drivers in order to End Transmission Genotyping data and social network analysis to infer recent transmission clusters Dynamic model of TB transmission in CA, TX, NY, & FL TB Transmission is Geographically Heterogeneous Four fold difference in proportion of recent transmission in most states of the South vs. Mountain West Financial Disclosure Please Note: Slide Removed as Data Not Published as of April
5 TB Transmission is Geographically Heterogeneous Heterogeneity exists even down to the county level. (Dots would all be along the diagonal line if counties within a state had the same proportion of recent transmission.) TB Transmission is Geographically Heterogeneous Ending TB transmission is feasible. Has already occurred in many counties Nearing achievement even in some states with large FB populations (NJ, #3 in FB%) and/or poverty (WV, #49 in median income) Intensified efforts to end transmission should be geographically prioritized. State level: Southeast County level Ending TB transmission must be a local priority. Transmission largely occurs at the city, not the state, level. Other Drivers of Transmission Key populations can be identified: Male Young US born Non white Homeless 5
6 Comprehensive Approach to End Transmission No single risk factor explains the majority of transmission. TB incidence in USB (esp. USB <65yo) as a simple indicator Financial Disclosure Please Note: Slide Removed as Data Not Published as of April 2017 Drivers of Transmission: Summary All TB is due to transmission. And probably 30% reflects avertible transmission within US borders TB transmission is heterogeneous by geography. Must prioritize ending TB transmission in every county Key populations can be identified & prioritized, but a multifaceted approach is necessary to end transmission. CI, infection control, TTT TB incidence among <65yo USB as a simple indicator The near future of TB will reflect our ability to end transmission within US borders. It is therefore critical to understand and act upon the drivers of transmission at the local level. 6
7 Acknowledgments TB NEEMA team Sourya Shrestha Suzanne Marks, Andrew Hill Collaborators at Emory, UCSF, Harvard TB Transmission Thinkers Maunank Shah Tom Navin Courtney Yuen TB Controllers For all you do to make ending TB transmission an achievable reality 7
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