Identifying, Preparing for & Reducing Pandemic Risk

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1 Identifying, Preparing for & Reducing Pandemic Risk Jonna Mazet, DVM, MPVM, PhD Professor of Epidemiology & Disease Ecology One Health Institute School of Veterinary Medicine University of California, Davis, CA, USA #epidemicsgoviral

2 Number of EVD Events HIV Avian Influenza Nipah SARS H1N1 Zika Ebola MERS The threat from emerging viruses is increasing Actual Projected Decades Each year, approx. 3 new Viral Diseases emerge Driven by Population expansion (1.6 billion in 1900 to 11.5 billion people in 2100) Increased encroachment into wildlife habitat which accelerates the spillover from wildlife to humans Source: Jones et al. (2008) Nature

3 One Health Interface Livelihood Impacts & Economic Pressures Health Risks to Humans, Livestock, & Wildlife Land Use Change & Human Population Growth Increased Contact Between Humans, Livestock, & Wildlife Enhanced Flow of Pathogens Majority of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in people are of animal origin (zoonotic) 75% of emerging zoonoses have wildlife origins Human activities at the interface linked to EIDs (Nipah virus, SARS, Ebola) Annual population growth among highest in buffers to protected areas near wildlife

4 Economic Impact of Recent EVDs $60 bn $50 bn $40 bn SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada $30-50 bn H5N1 Worldwide $40 bn H1N1 Worldwide $45-55 bn Ebola Worldwide $40 bn $30 bn $20 bn $10 bn MERS South Korea Zika $8-12 bn Americas $4-6 bn

5 Economic Impact of Recent EVDs $60 bn $50 bn $40 bn SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada $30-50 bn H5N1 Worldwide $40 bn H1N1 Worldwide $45-55 bn Ebola Worldwide $40 bn $30 bn $20 bn $10 bn Estimated Annual Inclusive cost of a pandemic ~ $570 billion per year Fan, Jamison, Summers MERS South Korea Zika $8-12 bn Americas $4-6 bn

6 Global travel & trade can turn local epidemics into pandemics

7 One Health in Action

8 One Health in Action

9 The Ministries of Health, Agriculture & Environment and Implementing University and NGO Partners in 35 Countries

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12 Training a Disease Surveillance Workforce

13 Training a Disease Detection Workforce

14 Coordinated One Health Surveillance Strategy Concurrent sampling of wildlife, livestock, and people Investigations during disease outbreaks Triangulation Detect viruses shared among animals and people

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20 MERS-like Virus Identified in Uganda

21 Novel ebolavirus found in Sierra Leone

22 Comparison to other Ebolaviruses

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25 Characteristics of a Pandemic Threat Evolution of pathogens in animal hosts Cross-species transmission Spread by human-to-human transmission Environmental change driving these processes

26 Hotspots 2.0 zoonotic diseases relative influence (%) std. dev. population mammal diversity change: pop change: pasture urban extent Allen et al Nature Comm.

27 Projected number of undiscovered missing zoonoses Bat Missing Zoonoses Rodent Missing Zoonoses Primate Missing Zoonoses Olival et al. 2017, Nature

28 Ranking Which Viruses Are Most Risky

29 Expert Opinion Scientific Evidence Virus Detection Global Datasets Citizen Science Have a question? For online attendees, click on the Live Q&A tab, type your question into the pop-up box, and click submit.

30 Have a question? For online attendees, click on the Live Q&A tab, type your question into the pop-up box, and click submit. #epidemicsgoviral

31 Have a question? For online attendees, click on the Live Q&A tab, type your question into the pop-up box, and click submit.

32 Have a question? For online attendees, click on the Live Q&A tab, type your question into the pop-up box, and click submit. #epidemicsgoviral

33 Extrapolating Number of Viruses & Samples Discovery curves show the number of samples required PREDICT research has demonstrated that far fewer samples than previously expected are required to identify all the viruses in a given species These viral discovery curve studies provide a roadmap to sampling needs for GVP

34 Making the unknown known 111 viral families recognized to-date infecting all hosts around the globe 24 of these families likely contain zoonotic species To-date a total of 385 viruses are known to have infected humans ~1.6 million viral species spanning the 24 viral families are estimated to be circulating in mammals and water fowl Of these 500, ,000 viral species are likely to be of pandemic or epidemic potential

35 The Global Virome Project A First Step Toward Ending the Pandemic Era

36 The Global Virome Project Developing a global database of virtually all of the planet s naturally-occurring viral threats Transforming the world of EIDs into a data-rich field Enabling rapid detection of natural and laboratory-enhanced threats Exponentially increasing the amount of conservation genetics data available

37 GVP Builds a Comprehensive Viral Atlas GVP viral surveillance and collection Metadata on viral host range, geographic distribution, epidemiology Virus genomic sequence generation Sequence database Viral Atlas A comprehensive ecologic and genetic database on all naturallyoccurring viruses Enabling An Enhanced Global Health Tool Box

38 Overarching: Disruptive & Transformative Using Big Data to Identify Epidemic Risk & Target Counter Measure R&D GVP Sequence & Metadata Massive Viral Data sets Artificial Intelligence Analysis Shared Viral Family Features Transforming Counter Measure R&D

39 The Halo Effect Stages of Emergence Critically important data collected on host ecology, epidemiology, genetics & human interaction Surveillance & laboratory platforms available for more than just human-centered investigations & will remain beyond the GVP Trained cross-disciplinary workforce, brought up with One Health principles

40 GVP: Making future threats known

41 Towards a proactive paradigm for early disease detection and response One Health approach to understanding the dynamics of zoonotic virus evolution, spillover from animals to people, amplification, and spread to inform prevention and control