Dr. Allen Back. Oct. 7, 2016
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1 Dr. Allen Back Oct. 7, 2016 al
2 Was it Fair? The first draft lottery during the Vietnam War: 366 balls labeled by dates. Mixed up and pulled out in a random order. al
3 Was it Fair? Scatterplot al
4 Was it Fair? Boxplots for each month al
5 Was it Fair? Scatterplot with Line al
6 Was it Fair? Correlation Display al
7 Was it Fair? Correlation Display al Around 1 in a thousand chance of a correlation coefficient this far from 0 if the lottery was fair.
8 Was it Fair? Around 1 in a thousand chance of a correlation coefficient this far from 0 if the lottery was fair. The balls were probably not mixed well enough. al
9 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? x crews working for a building contractor go out each night and clean y rooms. Understand the relationship? al
10 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? Scatterplot al
11 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? Num summary al
12 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? RoomsCleaned Summary al
13 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? Scatterplot with Line al
14 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? Display al
15 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? Display al
16 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? Display al RoomsCleaned = 3.70 Num
17 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? Residual Plot al
18 How Many Rooms Can x Clean? There are important deviations from the the assumptions of an ideal linear regression model here. al
19 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) vs Housing Prices in 1996 Crime Rate is Crimes Per 1000 Housing Prices in Dollars al
20 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) scatterplot al
21 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) with regression line al ĤP = 577 CR + 177K r 2 =.06 (SMALL)
22 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) regression display al
23 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) Residuals al
24 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) Now analyze without the Center City Outlier al
25 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) scatterplot al
26 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) with regression line al ĤP = 2290 CR + 225K r 2 =.18 (vs..06 before)
27 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) regression display al
28 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) Residuals al
29 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) Now transform from CR to 1 CR. al
30 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) scatterplot al
31 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) with regression line al ĤP = 1.3M But Center City included. 1 CR K r 2 =.17
32 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) regression display al
33 by Locality (rm outliers?, transform?) Residuals al
34 For both men and women: 1 IQ s average about SD about 15 al
35 A large study showed: 1 For men with IQ of 140, average wife s IQ was For women with IQ of 120, average husband s s IQ was Note the Z score of 140 is twice the Z score of The above kind of comparison is typical because of the two regression lines. al
36 al
37 e.g. if r =.5, 1 Ẑ w = rz m, Z m = Ẑ w = Ẑ m = rz w, Z w = Ẑ m =.667. al
38 Baseball s All-Time by Michael J. Schell PUP 1999 al
39 al
40 al
41 Corrections for Late career batting decline. (first at bats) Hitting Feasts/Famines Z-scores (using mid-decade averages) (Std Dev for Assessing Talent Pool Variability) Ball Park Differences al
42 Adjusting for Late Career Declines al
43 For Z-scores al
44 Ball Parks Do Matter! al
45 Hits are to Win Games! al
46 An Interesting Idea: The leftover change in batting average after taking into account the regression of Mean Adjusted Batting Average on Winning Percentage is viewed as a Ballpark effect. al
47 al
48 Establishing ation Association strong. (Attempts Basically Hill s Criteria) al
49 Establishing ation Association strong. Association consistent. (Attempts Basically Hill s Criteria) al
50 Establishing ation (Attempts Basically Hill s Criteria) Association strong. Association consistent. Higher doses give stronger responses. al
51 Establishing ation (Attempts Basically Hill s Criteria) Association strong. Association consistent. Higher doses give stronger responses. Alleged cause precedes effect. al
52 Establishing ation (Attempts Basically Hill s Criteria) Association strong. Association consistent. Higher doses give stronger responses. Alleged cause precedes effect. Alleged cause is plausible. al
53 Establishing ation (Attempts Basically Hill s Criteria) Association strong. Association consistent. Higher doses give stronger responses. Alleged cause precedes effect. Alleged cause is plausible. Rule out other plausible explanations. al
54 Establishing ation al (Attempts Basically Hill s Criteria) Association strong. Association consistent. Higher doses give stronger responses. Alleged cause precedes effect. Alleged cause is plausible. Rule out other plausible explanations. This is hard to do reliably.
55 Establishing ation al (Attempts Basically Hill s Criteria) Association strong. Association consistent. Higher doses give stronger responses. Alleged cause precedes effect. Alleged cause is plausible. Rule out other plausible explanations. This is hard to do reliably. ation is much clearer!
56 Basic ation Strategies 1) Control extraneous sources of variation. al
57 Basic ation Strategies 1) Control extraneous sources of variation. 2) Randomize to deal with uncontrollable sources of variation. al
58 Basic ation Strategies 1) Control extraneous sources of variation. 2) Randomize to deal with uncontrollable sources of variation. 3) Replicate to increase accuracy and gain greater confidence in the scope of your conclusions. al
59 Basic ation Strategies 1) Control extraneous sources of variation. 2) Randomize to deal with uncontrollable sources of variation. 3) Replicate to increase accuracy and gain greater confidence in the scope of your conclusions. 4) Block when possible to increase accuracy/sensitivity and better control variability. al
60 Sampling Words Sample vs. Population Sample Statistic vs. Population Parameter Sampling Frame (not in your text?) Voluntary Response Sample (not in your text?) Convenience Sample Biased Sample Simple Random Sample (SRS) al
61 Sampling Words Census Strata Stratified Random Sample Cluster Sample Multistage Sample al
62 Sampling Words Matching in an observational study cohort Undercoverage (not in your text?) Non-Response Bias Response Bias (not in your text?) Leading Questions Sampling Variability al
63 Stratification Strata groups of homogeneous individuals. Stratified Random Sample same probability of choice within each group. al
64 Stratification Strata groups of homogeneous individuals. Stratified Random Sample same probability of choice within each group. Advantages include: Every stratum well represented. Can be more accurate for a given sample size. Strata with greater variability should be better represented. al
65 Types of Bias Response bias vs. voluntary response bias vs. non-response bias? al
66 Types of Bias Response bias vs. voluntary response bias vs. non-response bias? Response Bias: problems in the questions or how they are asked. al
67 Types of Bias Response bias vs. voluntary response bias vs. non-response bias? Voluntary Response Bias: problems in surveys where only volunteers participate. al
68 Types of Bias Response bias vs. voluntary response bias vs. non-response bias? Non-Response Bias: problems associated with which people are missing in the final results. al
69 Types of Bias Response bias vs. voluntary response bias vs. non-response bias? Undercoverage: groups somewhat missing from the sampling frame. al
70 s Observational Study vs. Prospective vs Retrospective Study Factor in an experiment Level Treatment al
71 s Control Group Single-Blind vs. Double-Blind One Factor vs. Two Factor Placebo Placebo Effect al
72 s Block Block Matched Pairs Confounding Variables Statistically Significant Effect al
73 Factors and Levels Factors vs. Levels vs. Treatments? al
74 Factors and Levels Factors vs. Levels vs. Treatments? Factor in an : Variable being manipulated. al
75 Factors and Levels Factors vs. Levels vs. Treatments? Levels: Values of a factor. al
76 Factors and Levels Factors vs. Levels vs. Treatments? Treatment: What is actively done to the experimental units. al
77 Block Related Block vs. Block vs. Matched Pairs al
78 Block Related Block vs. Block vs. Matched Pairs Block: homogenous group similar in some important way. al
79 Block Related Block vs. Block vs. Matched Pairs Block : random within each block. al
80 Block Related Block vs. Block vs. Matched Pairs Matched Pairs : block size of 2. al
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