The 2010 Wyoming Prevention Needs Assessment: State of Wyoming Profile Report

Transcription

1 The 2010 Wyoming Prevention Needs Assessment: State of Wyoming Profile Report WYSAC Technical Report No. CHES November 1, 2010 Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center (307)

2 The 2010 Wyoming Prevention Needs Assessment: State of Wyoming Profile Report By Eric L. Canen, Associate Research Scientist W. Trent Holder, Assistant Research Scientist With the assistance of Jenna McConnell, Research Assistant Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center University of Wyoming Dept East University Avenue Laramie, WY (307) Fax: (307) In collaboration with Wyoming Department of Education, the Wyoming school districts and the Wyoming public schools Under contract to Wyoming Department of Health, Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services Division 6101 Yellowstone Road, Suite 220 Cheyenne, WY Telephone: (307) Fax: (307) Citation for this document: WYSAC. (2010). The 2010 Wyoming Prevention Needs Assessment: State of Wyoming Profile Report, by E. L. Canen & W. T. Holder. (WYSAC Technical Report No. CHES ) Laramie, WY: Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center, University of Wyoming. Short reference: WYSAC (2010), The 2010 PNA: Wyoming.

3 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 3 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence Rates Risk and Protective Factor Prevalence Rates Risk Factors Protective Factors Alcohol in the Community Social Norms County Level Comparisons Introduction The Development of the PNA Questionnaire The PNA in Wyoming Current Report s Purpose and Organization Methods Survey Participants Survey Administration Data Preparation and Analysis Survey Limitations and Considerations Self-Report Limitations Limitations in Data Collection Survey modality Results Using Figures and Tables in this Report Prevalence of Substance Use and Problem Behaviors th Grade Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence th Grade Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence th Grade Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence th Grade Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence Risk Factor Prevalence Rates Prevalence of Risk Factors for 6 th Grade Students Prevalence of Risk Factors for 8 th Grade Students Prevalence of Risk Factors for 10 th Grade Students Prevalence of Risk Factors for 12 th Grade Students Protective Factors Prevalence Rates Prevalence of Protective Factors Alcohol in the Community Obtaining and Consuming Alcohol... 71

4 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming Exposure to Alcohol Alcohol Risk Models Social Norms Social Norms Results for 6 th Grade Social Norms Results for 8 th Grade Social Norms Results for 10 th Grade Social Norms Results for 12 th Grade Social norms discrepancy measurements State Level Conclusions Substance Use and Problem Behaviors Risk and Protection Alcohol in the Community Social Norms County Level Results Substance Use and Problem Behaviors Lifetime Substance Use Indicators for each County Day Substance Use Indicators for each County Heavy Substance Use Indicators for each County Problem Behaviors Risk Factors Protective Factors School Supports and Concerns Alcohol in the Community Smokeless Tobacco Cumulative County Outlook Substances in Highest Quartile Risk Factors in Highest Quartile Protective Factors in Lowest Quartile County Level Conclusions References Appendices Appendix A. Substance Use Prevalence Rate Tables Appendix B. Risk Factor Prevalence Rate Tables Appendix C. Protective Factor Prevalence Rate Tables Appendix D. Differences Between the 2010 Prevalence Rates and the 2004, 2006, and 2008 Prevalence Rates Appendix E. County Level Appendices

5 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 5 List of Tables Table 1. Lifetime substance use rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Table day and heavy substance use rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Table 3. Problem behavior prevalence rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Table 4. Risk Factor prevalence rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Table 5. Protective Factor prevalence rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Table 6. Demographics of survey participants, 2010 PNA: Wyoming Table 7. Response rates by grade, 2010 PNA: Wyoming and Wyoming Table 8. Attended events where alcohol was involved; Students who reported they received a minor in possession charge: 2010 PNA, percentage, by grade Table 9. Social norms discrepancies between perceived use by most students and actual reported use: by grade level and survey year Table 10. Number of substance use grade level indicators for lifetime use, 30-day use, and heavy use that had prevalence values in the highest quartile of Wyoming counties: 2010 PNA Table 11. Number of Risk Factor grade level indicators that had prevalence values in the highest quartile of Wyoming counties: 2010 PNA Table 12. Number of Protective Factor grade level indicators that had prevalence values in the lowest quartile of Wyoming counties: 2010 PNA Table 13. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rates for Wyoming, 6 th grade Table 14. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rates for Wyoming, 8 th grade Table 15. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rates for Wyoming, 10 th grade Table 16. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rates for Wyoming, 12 th grade Table 17. Percentage of students in Wyoming classified as at-risk, 6 th grade Table 18. Percentage of students in Wyoming classified as at-risk, 8 th grade Table 19. Percentage of students in Wyoming classified as at-risk, 10 th grade Table 20. Percentage of students in Wyoming classified as at-risk, 12 th grade Table 21. Percent of students in Wyoming classified as at-high-protection by grade level Table 22. Differences in lifetime substance use rates and, moving average differences between 2010 and the last three administrations : Wyoming Table day and heavy substance use rates, PNA differences and, moving average differences between 2010 and the last three administrations : Wyoming Table 24. Problem behavior prevalence rates, PNA differences, and moving average differences between 2010 and the last three administrations : Wyoming Table 25. Risk Factor prevalence rates, PNA differences, and moving average differences between 2010 and the last three administrations : Wyoming Table 26. Protective factor prevalence rates, PNA differences, and moving average differences between 2010 and the last three administrations : Wyoming

6 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 6 List of Figures Figure 1. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rate profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure 2. Lifetime substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure day substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure 4. Heavy substance use and problem behavior prevalence, PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure 5. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rate profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders Figure 6. Lifetime substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders Figure day substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders Figure 8. Heavy substance use and problem behavior prevalence, PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders Figure 9. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rate profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders Figure 10. Lifetime substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders Figure day substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders Figure 12. Heavy substance use and problem behavior prevalence, PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders Figure 13. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rate profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming,12 th graders Figure 14. Lifetime substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming,12 th graders Figure day substance use prevalence, PNA: Wyoming,12 th graders Figure 16. Heavy substance use and problem behavior prevalence, PNA: Wyoming,12 th graders Figure 17. Risk Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure 18. At-risk youth by Community, Family and School Domains, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure 19. At-risk youth, Peer/Individual Domain, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure 20. Risk Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders Figure 21. At-risk youth by Community, Family and School Domains, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 8 th graders Figure 22. At-risk youth, Peer/Individual Domain, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 8 th graders Figure 23. Risk Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders Figure 24. At-risk youth by Community, Family and School Domains, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 10 th graders Figure 25. At-risk youth, Peer/Individual Domain, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 10 th graders... 63

7 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 7 Figure 26. Risk Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 12 th graders Figure 27. At-risk youth by Community, Family and School Domains, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 12 th graders Figure 28. At-risk youth, Peer/Individual Domain, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 12 th graders Figure 29. Protective Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, all grade levels Figure 30. Protective Factor prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, by grades surveyed Figure 31. Source of alcohol for last drink (for those reporting use), by grade level: 2010 PNA, Wyoming Figure 32. Type of alcohol most often consumed by those students reporting use, by grade level: 2010 PNA, Wyoming Figure 33. Locations reported where 6 th graders in Wyoming consumed alcohol during the past 12 months: 2010 PNA Figure 34. Locations reported where 8 th graders in Wyoming consumed alcohol during the past 12 months: 2010 PNA Figure 35. Locations reported where 10 th graders in Wyoming consumed alcohol during the past 12 months: 2010 PNA Figure 36. Locations reported where 12 th graders in Wyoming consumed alcohol during the past 12 months: 2010 PNA Figure day alcohol use high, medium, and low risk percentages based on Risk Factor models: 2010 PNA, Wyoming students by grade Figure 38. Alcohol use, and binge drinking perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure 39. Cigarettes and chewing tobacco, perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure 40. Marijuana, methamphetamines and illegal drugs, perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming, 6 th graders Figure 41. Alcohol use, and binge drinking perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming, 8 th graders Figure 42. Cigarettes and chewing tobacco, perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming, 8 th grade Figure 43. Marijuana, methamphetamines and illegal drugs, perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming, 8 th graders Figure 44. Alcohol use, and binge drinking perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming,10 th graders Figure 45. Cigarettes and chewing tobacco, perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming,10 th Grade Figure 46. Marijuana, methamphetamines and illegal drugs, perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming,10 th graders Figure 47. Alcohol use, and binge drinking perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming, 12 th graders Figure 48. Cigarettes and chewing tobacco, perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming, 12 th grade... 94

8 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 8 Figure 49. Marijuana, methamphetamines and illegal drugs, perception of use by most students compared to actual use: Wyoming, 12 th graders Figure 50. Alcohol use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 51. Marijuana use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 52. LSD use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 53. Cocaine use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 54. Inhalant use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 55. Methamphetamines use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 56. Heroin use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 57. Ecstasy/MDMA Use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 58. Steroid use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 59. Chewing tobacco use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 60. Cigarette use in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 61. Misuse of over-the-counter medication in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 62. Misuse of prescription medications in lifetime, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 63. Alcohol use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 64. Marijuana use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 65. LSD use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 66. Cocaine use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 67. Inhalant use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 68. Methamphetamines use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 69. Heroin use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 70. Ecstasy/MDMA use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 71. Steroid use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 72. Chewing tobacco use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 73. Cigarette use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 74. Misuse of over-the-counter medication use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 75. Misuse of prescription medications use in past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 76. Binge drinking during the past two weeks, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 77. Regularly used a half a pack or more of cigarettes per day during past 30 days, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 78. Suspended from school sometime during the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 79. Came to school when drunk or high sometime during the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade

9 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 9 Figure 80. Sold illegal drugs sometime during the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 81. Stole or tried to steal a vehicle sometime during the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 82. Arrested sometime during the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 83. Attacked someone with the idea of causing serious harm sometime during the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 84. Brought a handgun to school sometime during the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 85. Did something illegal in the past 12 months but were not caught, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 86. Community Disorganization Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 87. Laws and Norms Favoring Drug Use Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 88. Perceived Availability of Drugs Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 89. Poor Family Management Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 90. Parent(s) Favorable Attitudes toward Antisocial Behavior Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 91. Parent(s) Favorable Attitudes toward Drug Use Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 92. Low Commitment to School Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 93. Rebelliousness Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 94. Early Initiation of Antisocial Behavior Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 95. Early Initiation of Drug Use Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 96. Favorable Attitudes toward Antisocial Behavior Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 97. Favorable Attitudes toward Drug Use Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 98. Intent to Use Drugs as an Adult Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 99. Perceived Risk and Harm of Drug Use Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 100. Interactions with Antisocial Peers Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 101. Friends Use of Drugs Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 102. Sensation Seeking Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade

10 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 10 Figure 103. Rewards for Antisocial Behavior Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 104. Depressive Symptoms Risk Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 105. Religiosity Protective Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 106. Social Skills Protective Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 107. Belief in a Moral Order Protective Factor prevalence, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 108. Changed schools the past 12 months other than the transition from elementary school to middle school or middle school to high school, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 109. Felt unsafe at school some days, most days or every day, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 110. Felt unsafe going to or from school, some days, most days or every day, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 111. Picked on by a fellow student several times or very often during the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 112. Bullied by a fellow student several times or very often during the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 113. Verbally attacked, bullied or harassed someone in the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 114. Attended a community event during the past 12 months where adults were drinking alcohol, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 115. Attended a community event during the past 12 months where alcohol was being sold, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 116. Attended a community event during the past 12 months where adults were drunk or intoxicated, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 117. Attended a gathering during the past 12 months where large amounts of alcohol were available, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 118. Received a Minor in Possession charge (MIP) for alcohol sometime in the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 119. Felt that there was no risk or slight risk for using two cans of chewing tobacco per week, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 120. Said their parents would feel that it was not wrong at all or a little bit wrong to use chewing tobacco, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 121. Said it was not wrong at all or only a little bit wrong for someone their age to use chewing tobacco, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 122. Received a minor in possession charge (MIP) for tobacco sometime in the past 12 months, 2010 PNA: Wyoming counties by Grade Figure 123. Number of substance use indicators for lifetime use, 30-day use, and heavy use that had prevalence values in the highest quartile of Wyoming counties: 2010 PNA Figure 124. Number of Risk Factors for which the prevalence rates were in the highest quartile for each Wyoming county: 2010 PNA Figure 125. Protective Factors for which the prevalence rates were in the lowest quartile for each Wyoming county: 2010 PNA

11 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 11 The 2010 Wyoming Prevention Needs Assessment: State of Wyoming Profile Report 1. Executive Summary The Prevention Needs Assessment (PNA) is a survey designed to gather information for the planning and evaluation of substance abuse, violence, and delinquent behavior prevention programs, policies, and practices. The Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center (WYSAC) administered the 2010 PNA as a census survey of all enrolled 6, 8 th, 10 th, and 12 th grade students in the state of Wyoming. Researchers have administered the survey in Wyoming since the school year for a total of five iterations. The PNA measures the students self-reported substance use and participation in problem behaviors. The PNA also assesses 22 intermediate attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions that influence whether high school and middle school students will participate in substance use, violence, and/or criminal activity. Attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions that studies show increase the likelihood of substance use and problem behavior are called Risk Factors, whereas attitudes, beliefs and perceptions that decrease the likelihood of substance use and problem behaviors are called Protective Factors. Information from this report provides community leaders and prevention specialists with the information to address the unique and important challenges of substance abuse and problem behaviors among middle and high school students. In addition, this report describes the meaningful changes that have occurred in substance use, problem behaviors and attitudes in State of Wyoming since A total of 15,824 students in Wyoming participated in the PNA during 2010, representing an overall response rate of 71% for the participating school districts. Laramie County School District #1 (LCSD#1) in Cheyenne, Wyoming did not participate in the 2010 PNA. Based on an examination of data from 2008, the effect of not having Cheyenne, Wyoming participate is minimal for the state level results. However, the results differ substantially more in the Laramie County and the Southeastern Region when the data analyst excludes LCSD#1 from the 2008 PNA analysis. In 2010 to avoid this potential bias due to LCSD#1 s nonparticipation, no results were calculated for Laramie County or the South Eastern Region of Wyoming.

12 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence Rates Based on student responses the 2010 iteration of the PNA had the following notable findings: Alcohol remains the most commonly reported used substance in all grade levels (Lifetime use: 6 th grade = 24%, 8 th grade =48%, 10 th grade = 65%, 12 th grade = 73%; 30-day use: 6 th grade = 6%, 8 th grade = 22%, 10 th grade = 36% and 12 th grade = 44%) but has seen some meaningful decreases across time in the 8 th and 10 th grades. o Lifetime alcohol use in the 8 th and 10 th grade decreased substantially in 2010 compared to the average use in 2004 to o Declines in 30-day alcohol use prevalence rates were also observed in the 10 th grade going from an average of 40% from 2004 to 2008 to a prevalence of 36% in o Self-reported 8 th grade binge drinking in 2004 to 2008 had an average prevalence of 15%, which decreased to 13% in Self-reported cigarette use continues to see declines over time. Specifically lifetime cigarette use was reported at an average rate of 31% for 8 th grade and 44% for 10 th grade from 2004 to The current results indicate a decrease in 2010 to 26% for 8 th grade and a 38% in 10 th grade. Chewing tobacco has seen some substantial increases in use. Specifically, 30-day use had an average prevalence rate of 11% (10 th grade) and 15% (12 th grade) from 2004 to These rates increased to 14% (10 th grade) and 18% (12 th grade) in For more details, Table 1. Lifetime substance use rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time, Table day and heavy substance use rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time, and Table 3. Problem behavior prevalence rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time present the meaningful differences between the 2010 substance use and problem behavior rates for Wyoming and the survey results from previous years. Differences that are greater than zero represent increases in prevalence rates over time, whereas differences that are less than zero represent decreases in prevalence rates. When comparing the 2010 survey results with the 2008 results, it is important to note that the criteria for determining a meaningful difference varies by grade level. In 6 th grade, the difference must be an increase or decrease of at least 5.0 percentage points, in 8th grade 7.5 percentage points, 10th grade 10.0 percentage points, and 12th grade 12.5 percentage points. WYSAC calculated the standard deviation around the mean of the results for each substance use and problem behavior rate from the 2004, 2006, and 2008 iterations of the PNA. The 2010 survey results were meaningfully different from the averaged results of the previous three iterations if they were at least two standard deviations above or below that average. Decreases in substance use and problem behavior rates that met these criteria are colored gold and increases in those rates are colored red.

13 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 13 Table 1. Lifetime substance use rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Alcohol Marijuana LSD and Hallucinogens Cocaine Inhalants Methamphetamines Heroin Ecstasy Steroids Chewing Tobacco Cigarettes Misuse of OTC Meds* Misuse of Rx Meds** Lifetime Substance Use Grade Level 6th 8th 10th 12th 2008 vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs Meaningful Increase Meaningful Decrease No Meaningful Change

14 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 14 Table day and heavy substance use rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Alcohol Marijuana LSD and Hallucinogens Cocaine Inhalants Methamphetamines Heroin Ecstasy Steroids Chewing Tobacco Cigarettes Misuse of OTC Meds* Misuse of Rx Meds** 30-day Substance Use Grade Level 6th 8th 10th 12th 2008 vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs Binge Drinking Half Pack of Cig./Day Heavy Substance Use 2008 vs Average vs vs Average vs Meaningful Increase Meaningful Decrease No Meaningful Change

15 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 15 Table 3. Problem behavior prevalence rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Grade Level Problem Behavior 6th 8th 10th 12th Suspended from School 2008 vs Average vs Drunk or High at School Sold Drugs Attempted Vehicle Theft Arrested Attacked Someone Brought a Gun to School 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs Average vs Average vs Average vs Average vs Average vs Average vs Meaningful Increase Meaningful Decrease No Meaningful Change 1.2. Risk and Protective Factor Prevalence Rates The PNA Risk Factors are attitudes, beliefs and perceptions that increase the likelihood that students would participate in substance use and problem behaviors. Protective factors represent the opposite concept. They are attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions that decrease the likelihood that students would participate in substance use and problem behaviors Risk Factors In 6 th grade the three risk factors with the highest prevalence rates were: Laws and Norms Favoring Drug Use (45%) Sensation Seeking (43%) Rebelliousness (41%) In 8 th grade the three risk factors with the highest prevalence rates were: Parents Favorable Attitude toward Antisocial Behavior (44%) Sensation Seeking (43%) Interactions with Antisocial Peers (42%) In 10 th grade the three risk factors with the highest prevalence rates were: Parents Favorable Attitude toward Antisocial Behavior (50%) Parents Favorable Attitude toward Drug Use (47%) Interactions with Antisocial Peers (46%)

16 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 16 In 12 th grade the three risk factors with the highest prevalence rates were: Parents Favorable Attitude toward Drug Use (58%) Percieved Risk and Harm of Drug Use (51%) Rewards for Antisocial Behavior (49%) Wyoming has seen improvements in its Risk Factor prevalence rates. In the 2010, 12 of the 19 Risk Factors improved, with most of them demonstrating meaningful improvements in multiple grade levels. Only one Risk Factor, Perceived Risk and Harm of Drug Use, in one grade level, 6 th grade became worse. Table 4 on the following page gives a general overview of the changes WYSAC observed from 2004 to 2010 with regard to Risk Factors. Differences that are greater than zero represent increases in prevalence rates, while differences that are less than zero represent decreases in prevalence rates. When comparing the two most recent years results, increases of at least 15 percentage points are colored red and decreases of at least 15 percentage points are colored gold. In comparing the 2010 results to the averaged results for the three previous iterations, 2010 rates that are more than two standard deviations above the mean are colored red, and 2010 rates that are more than two standard deviations below the mean are colored gold Protective Factors The PNA measures three protective factors: Religiosity, Belief in a Moral Order and Social Skills 1. In 6 th, 8 th, 10 th and 12 th grades, Religiosity had the lowest Protective Factor prevalence rates in All three protective factors in 12 th grade were nearly equivalent, with prevalence rates ranging from 64% for the Belief in a Moral Order Construct to 65% for the Religiosity construct. The only meaningful changes across time occurred in the Belief in a Moral Order scale, where 8 th and 10 th grade students improved their high-protection rate. The average protection-prevalence rates for Belief in a Moral Order were 63% (8 th grade) and 69% (10 th grade) from 2004 to In 2010, these rates increased to 69% (8 th grade) and 74% (10 th grade). The original survey developers conceived the PNA Protective Factors as influences that decrease the likelihood that students would participate in problem behaviors. As a result, when looking at changes across time, increasing Protective Factor prevalence rates signify possible improvement, whereas decreasing rates signify possible deterioration. Table 5 gives a general overview of the differences observed in a comparison of the 2010 PNA s Protective Factor prevalence rates with the results from previous survey years. Differences that are greater than zero represent increases in prevalence rates and differences that are less than zero represent decreases in prevalence rates. When comparing the 2008 rates to the 2010 rates, increases of at least 15 percentage points are colored gold and decreases of at least 15 percentage points are colored red. In comparing the 2010 results to the averaged results for all three previous iterations, rates that are more than two standard deviations above the mean are colored gold, and rates that are more than two standard deviations below the mean are colored red. 1 Prior to 2008, the PNA measured ten protective factor constructs; however, after an analysis of the correlation, WYSAC found extremely small correlations between most of protective factors and the substance use and problem behavior indices. Based on this analysis only three of the ten Protective Factors were retained.

17 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 17 Table 4. Risk Factor prevalence rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Grade Level Community Risk Factors 6th 8th 10th 12th Community Disorganization Laws and Norms Favoring Drug Use Perceived Availability of Drugs 2008 vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs Family Risk Factors Poor Family Management Parents Favorable Attitude toward Antisocial Behavior Parents Favorable Attitude toward Drug Use 2008 vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs School Risk Factor Low Commitment to School 2008 vs Average vs Peer / Individual Risk Factors Rebelliousness Early Initiation of Antisocial Behavior Early Initiation of Drug Use Favorable Attitudes toward Antisocial Behavior Favorable Attitudes toward Drug Use Intent to Use Perceived Risk and Harm of Drug Use Interaction with Antisocial Peers Friends Use of Drugs Sensation Seeking Rewards for Antisocial Behavior Depressive Symptoms 2008 vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs Meaningful Increase Meaningful Decrease No Meaningful Change

18 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 18 Table 5. Protective Factor prevalence rates in Wyoming, PNA: Meaningful changes over time Religiosity Social Skills Belief in Moral Order Protective Factors Grade Level 6th 8th 10th 12th 2008 vs Average vs vs Average vs vs Average vs Meaningful Increase Meaningful Decrease No Meaningful Change 1.3. Alcohol in the Community To gauge community norms regarding alcohol use, the PNA asks several questions regarding youth exposure to alcohol consumption within the communities. When compared to measurements in 2008, many of these measures have become worse at the state level, with youth exposure to alcohol in the communities being reported at higher levels in 2010 than in For instance regarding community events where adults were drunk or intoxicated: In 2008, 26% of 6 th grade students reported attending these events, whereas in 2010 it increased to 31%. Similar increases on the same measure were seen in 8 th grade (49% in 2008 to 51% in 2010) and 10 th grade (64% in 2008 to 66% in 2010) students. In many other areas regarding alcohol norms and social availability of alcohol the PNA results remain unchanged. As was seen in previous years, the primary means of availability of alcohol for 6 th and 8 th grade students is their parents. 58% of 6 th grade and 36% of 8 th grade students who have used alcohol report getting their last drink from their parents. Availability of alcohol for 10 th and 12 th grade students comes primarily from adults who are over 21 years of age, but who are not the student s parents or a friend s parents. 34% of 10 th grade and 51% of 12 th grade students who have used alcohol report getting their last drink from some other adult who was 21 or older. Among all four grade levels, students who have used alcohol report consuming it most frequently in their own home or in a friend s home. When asked about the types of alcohol they most often consumed during the past 30 days, 8 th, 10 th and 12 th grade students were most likely to indicate consuming beer and/or hard liquor. 29% of 8 th grade students said they consumed beer most often and 37% said they consumed hard liquor most often.

19 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 19 38% of 10 th grade students said they consumed beer most often and 41% said they consumed hard liquor most often. 46% of 12 th grade student said they consumed beer most often and 36% said they consumed hard liquor most often Social Norms Wyoming students consistently overestimate how often and to what degree most students in their schools use drugs and alcohol. The discrepancy between the actual use and perceived use is the point of action of most social norms campaigns that attempt to prevent drug use. Methamphetamines had by far the largest discrepancy between perceived and actual use. Depending upon the grade level, the odds of perceived use by most students for meth were 89 to 155 times greater than the odds of actual methamphetamine use. Odds ratios for the other substances suggested that the odds of perceived use were generally 6 to 20 times greater than the odds of actual use. In comparisons between 2010 to 2008, all grade levels, except 6 th, reported gaps that were smaller in 2010 than in 2008 across the board. This gap reduction applied to all seven social norms measurements in 8 th through 12 th grades. These findings suggest that the gap between perceived use and the actual use is narrowing in Wyoming County Level Comparisons The 2010 PNA presents the results for the Wyoming counties 2 and the Wind River Indian Reservation. The current report allows comparisons across the major indicators measured on the PNA. This presentation allows community leaders and prevention specialists to find the rank for their particular communities for a variety of indicators. In addition, WYSAC developed a methodology to identify when counties were consistently higher than most other counties on substance use, problem behavior, Risk Factors, and youth exposure to alcohol. This methodology revealed consistent findings for a few counties. The Wind River Indian Reservation, Sheridan County, Fremont County, Sweetwater County, Carbon County and Campbell County had a substantial number of substance use indicators in the highest quartile of counties in the state. The Wind River Indian Reservation, Fremont County, Hot Springs County and Weston County had a substantial number of Risk Factor prevalence rates in the highest quartile of counties in the state. Sweetwater County and the Wind River Reservation had Protective Factor prevalence rates that were lower than most other counties. On the positive side, Lincoln County, Big Horn County, and Albany County consistently reported substance use and problem behavior rates that were below those observed in other counties. These three counties also had low percentages of students who were considered atrisk and high percentages of students who were considered at-high-protection. Given these findings, these counties may serve as models to demonstrate how youth substance use can be prevented. 2 Laramie County School District #1, in Cheyenne did not participate in the 2010 PNA. This is the largest population center in the county. To avoid bias, no results are available for that county.

20 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming Introduction Survey research experts designed the Prevention Needs Assessment (PNA) to gather information for the planning and evaluation of substance abuse, violence, and delinquent behavior prevention programs. The Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center (WYSAC) administers the PNA as a census survey of all enrolled 6 th, 8 th, 10 th, and 12 th grade students in Wyoming. Researchers in Wyoming have administered the survey since the school year, for a total of five biennial iterations. The survey questionnaire asks students about their lifetime and 30-day use of 13 separate substances including alcohol, cigarettes, spit tobacco, and marijuana. The PNA also asks the students to report their participation in 11 specific problem behaviors including motor vehicle theft, attacking someone with the intent to cause injury, and carrying a handgun to school. For this report, WYSAC examines in detail seven of those 11 behaviors. The PNA assesses a wide variety of factors, such as student perceptions of their communities, families, and schools, as well as peer interactions and individual attitudes, any or all of which are likely to influence whether students use drugs or participate in problem behaviors. Researchers have conceptualized these influences as two types: ( 1 ) Risk Factors are attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions which increase the likelihood of substance use and problem behaviors; whereas ( 2 ) Protective Factors are attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions that decrease the likelihood of substance use and problem behaviors. The PNA assesses 21 Risk and Protective Factors. This report will provide a set of profiles to help Wyoming understand how substance use and its related Risk and Protective Factors have changed over time and in relation to all of Wyoming. This information can be used to evaluate whether current prevention activities are having the desired impact and to help communities choose programs, policies, and practices that can best address both the changing and continuing needs of substance use and violence prevention The Development of the PNA Questionnaire Substance abuse prevention efforts in the United States have spanned from the Temperance Movement during the late 1800s and early 1900s to the scare campaigns initiated during the 1950s and the early community action committees in the 1980s (Wilson et al., 2004). In 1992, Hawkins, Catalano, and Miller published a landmark article that applied the public health model of prevention to substance abuse. They noted that much is known about the root causes of substance abuse across a variety of general domains including community, family, school, and individual/peer influences. Hawkins, Catalano, and Miller (1992) concluded that prevention efforts should concentrate on the factors that both promote and hinder substance abuse. In response to this measurement concept for the root causes of substance use, Arthur, Hawkins, Pollard, Catalano, and Baglioni (2002) developed the Communities that Care Survey. The PNA has inherited much of its design from this survey. The developers endeavored to create a single survey instrument to gather information about adolescent substance use, participation in problem behaviors, and Risk and Protective Factors. They designed the Risk and Protective Factor portion to provide a broad profile of attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions that can influence whether youth participate in problem behaviors and substance use. The designers endeavored to create an instrument that would be relatively short so that it could be easily administered in a school setting during a 45-minute class period.

21 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 21 The core questions on the PNA were tested and normed on a sample of 6 th, 8 th, 10 th, and 12 th grade students from seven states. During this process, the survey demonstrated adequate reliability for measuring youths self-reported substance use and participation in problem behaviors. The Risk and Protective Factor scales also demonstrated adequate internal reliability within each of the scales. All the Risk Factor scores positively correlated with substance use (i.e., as the Risk Factor scores increased, the substance use also increased). The Protective Factor scores negatively correlated with substance use (i.e., as Protective Factor scores increased, substance use decreased). These findings suggest a valid relationship between the PNA Risk and Protective Factors and substance use (Arthur et al., 2002). As part of the survey development, researchers determined cutpoints for each of the Risk and Protective Factors (Arthur, et al., 2007). Cutpoints were derived from the median scale scores with a minor adjustment based on the variance around the median for each Risk and Protective Factor. When compared with other methods for creating cutpoints, these median-based cutpoints maximized the ability to identify students who did any of the following: Received mostly Ds and Fs in school during the past 12 months. Used alcohol or tobacco more than a specified number of times, varying by grade level, during the past 30 days. Committed two or more serious delinquent acts in the past 12 months. These cutpoints have remained constant between survey administrations as a point of comparison across survey years The PNA in Wyoming The Wyoming Department of Health, Substance Abuse Division sponsored the survey for the first time in 2001 in preparation for the 21st Century State Incentive Grant Project (21 SIG). Survey administrators designed this initial PNA as a census survey of all 6 th, 8 th, 10 th, and 12 th grade students in Wyoming. The PNA provided local information about substance use and the associated Risk and Protective Factors for all 48 school districts and 23 counties in Wyoming. As part of the PNA, each community and local coalition received a customized profile report. Communities used the reports to identify the Risk and Protective Factors with the greatest prevalence of youth who were at-risk or who had low protection. In turn, the communities chose programming that was tailored to reduce the highest priority Risk Factors and increase the least common Protective Factors. The 21 SIG constructed its evaluation around the PNA to foster compatibility between results. Other grants, including the Wyoming Core Grant, the Prevention Framework Project, and the Safe and Drug Free Communities Grants, have used PNA data to plan, implement, and evaluate substance abuse prevention efforts in Wyoming. The 2010 PNA is the fifth iteration of the PNA survey. Every year since its inception the PNA has surveyed upwards of 20,000 students. Since 2004, the PNA has provided information regarding how the state and communities had changed over time. Over the years, the PNA questionnaire has been streamlined and modified to target the areas of interest more directly and to gather information on subject areas that previously were not of interest. The survey underwent a somewhat larger change in 2008, when a committee composed of representatives from the Wyoming Department of Health, the Wyoming Department of Education, several Wyoming school districts, and the Prevention Framework State Advisory Council reviewed the survey. The committee identified areas for which

22 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 22 current substance abuse concerns needed additional data and proposed new questions to accommodate those needs. In addition, WYSAC analyzed the previous year s survey and measured the correlation between each Risk and Protective Factor and substance use. After this analysis WYSAC recommended that Risk and Protective Factor scales exhibiting poor correlations with substance use be deleted. Several Risk and Protective factors were removed following that review. Though these changes resulted in the removal of several Risk and Protective Factor Scales, some questions from those scales were retained, despite being separated from the rest of the scale. The 2010 PNA was streamlined further with several of these questions being removed to reduce the survey length. A complete description of these changes can be found in the 2010 PNA Methodological Report (WYSAC, 2010) Despite these changes, the 2010 PNA questionnaire remains similar to all the previous years of the PNA. It continues to provide local-, county-, and state-level decision makers with information on youth substance use and attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions that influence youth substance use. This information can be used to plan, modify, and evaluate programs, policies, and practices that address substance use and problem behaviors Current Report s Purpose and Organization The current report provides community leaders with essential information to plan and evaluate the community s prevention efforts for substance abuse and problem behaviors among adolescents. The report is organized into ten sections. Sections 1 and 2 provide an executive summary and introduction, respectively. Section 3 outlines the methods used to gather and analyze the 2010 PNA responses and briefly presents some of the limitations of the current study. Section 4 presents the survey results and organizes information according to the following topic areas: 1) Substance use and problem behavior prevalence 2) Risk Factor profiles 3) Protective Factor profiles 4) Alcohol use and exposure in the community 5) Social norms For each of these topic areas, the report arranges the results by grade level. A profile graph presents the current PNA results, followed by figures that allow year-to-year comparisons and trends. The current year s profile provides a snapshot of where communities currently stand with regard to substance use, Risk Factors, Protective Factors, and problem behaviors. A state-level comparison is also provided in these charts. The profile results are organized so that readers can easily identify the largest problems at the current moment. The year-to-year comparison charts that follow show changes that have occurred over time.

23 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 23 Following the state level results, Section 5 provides the state level conclusions and outlines future directions. Section 6 provides the county level results for many indicators. For each indicator, the counties and the Wind River Indian Reservation are ranked to provide a broader comparison of how each compares relative to the others on these measures. The county level indicators have been grouped based on the following topic areas: 1) Substance use and problem behaviors 2) Risk Factors 3) Protective Factors 4) School supports and concerns 5) Alcohol in the community 6) Smokeless tobacco Section 7 provides conclusions regarding the county level comparison. The conclusions identify those counties that are consistently doing well and those that are struggling. Section 8 lists the references for this report and is followed by Sections 9 and 10 which comprise the report appendices. Appendices 9-A, 9-B, and 9-C present results in tabular form used to construct the bar charts placed throughout the body of this report and include the number of people who were counted within each scale at the state level. In particular, Appendix 9-A provides the substance use and problem behavior results by grade level, Appendix 9-B provides the Risk Factor results by grade level, and Appendix 9-C provides the Protective Factor results by grade level. Appendix 9-D provides all difference values between the 2010 PNA and the 2008 PNA and also the difference values between the 2010 PNA and the weighted mean average for the 2004, 2006, and 2008 combined PNA results. Section 10 contains the county level appendices. These appendices provide the county level profile tables and figures that were produced in previous years. The report organizes county appendices in alphabetical order beginning with Albany County and ending with the Wind River Indian Reservation. These appendices are also available as standalone documents. 3. Methods The 2010 PNA was administered using two different modalities (paper based and online). The paper questionnaire was similar to what was used in previous years. Students responded to each survey question by marking a circle in front of their preferred response choice using a #2 pencil WYSAC had provided or a pen. Computer software then scanned and recognized the marks and entered the responses into a dataset for later analysis. The online survey was modeled after the paper-and-paper questionnaire. The research staff presented all the online survey questions in the same order and in similar groups as the paper questionnaire. There were no required questions and students could change their responses at any time. Classroom codes issued by WYSAC to each school controlled access to the survey. All students in a given class entered the same classroom code, so codes were tied to a school and class, similar to paper-based administration, but could not be used to identify any individual student. The core set of questions from the PNA were reproduced exactly as they were presented in previous years. The questionnaire in 2010 was slightly shorter than the 2008 PNA. An epidemiological workgroup from the Wyoming Department of Health authorized the removal of several orphaned

24 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 24 questions based on changes during the previous survey administrations. The State Methodological Report (WYSAC, 2010) provides a complete list of changes to survey items and a copy of the final survey questionnaire Survey Participants The survey was an attempted census survey of all 6 th, 8 th, 10 th, and 12 th grade students who were enrolled in Wyoming public schools. All the school districts except Laramie County School District #1 agreed to participate in the survey. After accounting for Laramie County School District #1 s non-participation, Wyoming had a response rate of 71% with 15,824 valid surveys. Demographics of the survey participants are provided in Table 6. Response rates for each grade level are presented in Table 7.

25 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 25 Table 6. Demographics of survey participants, 2010 PNA: Wyoming Wyoming Frequency % Total 15, % Sex Male 7,847 50% Female 7,794 49% Unreported 183 1% Age 10 or younger 14 0% 11 1,447 9% 12 2,925 18% 13 1,637 10% 14 2,779 18% 15 1,530 10% 16 2,466 16% 17 1,218 8% 18 1,665 11% 19 or older 143 1% Unreported 0 0% Grade 6 th 4,647 29% 8 th 4,402 28% 10 th 3,970 25% 12 th 2,805 18% Ethnicity White 12,083 76% Black 169 1% Native American 448 3% Hispanic or Latino/a 2,128 13% Other Race and/or Ethnicity 863 5% Unreported 133 1%

26 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 26 Table 7. Response rates by grade, 2010 PNA: Wyoming and Wyoming Grade Wyoming Number of Valid Participants Response Rate 6 th 4,647 81% 8 th 4,402 79% 10 th 3,970 67% 12 th 2,805 54% Total 15,824 71% 3.2. Survey Administration WYSAC prepared survey materials for all schools and school districts that agreed to participate. The type of survey materials depended upon whether the school chose to administer the survey using the paper questionnaires or the online. For schools that elected to use paper and pencil questionnaires, WYSAC staff prepared one survey packet for each classroom where the survey would be administered. The survey packet contained an overabundance of questionnaires, pencils, and parental consent letters to distribute to every student who was eligible to take the survey in that classroom. The packets also contained a standardized set of survey administrator instructions, a survey feedback form, and a collection envelope. Schools, whose officials chose to administer the survey using the online survey, received parental consent letters, classroom codes, and standardized survey administration instructions. A small number of schools used both administration modes. School officials were encouraged to seek parental consent at least two weeks prior to the survey administration date in each school. Typically, teachers gave students the consent forms to take home to their parents. Some schools chose to distribute the parental consent forms with school newsletters or with term grades mailed directly to the parents. All participating school districts chose to use passive parental consent, rather than active parental consent, which meant that parents could withdraw their consent if they did not want their child to participate by simply returning a signed form to the school. In most schools, classroom teachers administered the survey in their classrooms. Teachers informed students via oral instructions that the survey was voluntary and anonymous. Students who chose not to participate or whose parents withdrew their consent received another activity to complete, such as independent reading or studying, while the remainder of the students completed the survey. To ensure anonymous responses, researchers instructed teachers to ask students to refrain from writing their names or any other identifying marks on the survey questionnaire. Students responded to the survey questions by marking their answers directly on the questionnaire or marking their answers on the internet website. For students using paper surveys, they placed their surveys in a common classroom collection envelope, which teachers sealed immediately following the survey administration period and returned to WYSAC for analysis Data Preparation and Analysis As WYSAC received the completed questionnaires, staff cataloged them, tracked their points of origin, and prepared them for scanning. WYSAC research assistants examined every survey during

27 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 27 this process to evaluate suitability for scanning. Mutilated, torn, or otherwise unusable questionnaires were set aside and handled separately. Specially trained WYSAC research aides scanned or, in the case of damaged surveys, entered data manually using Teleform 10.2 software. Research assistants individually verified each questionnaire to identify and correct any problems during data entry. As part of the process, WYSAC conducted quality control checks of more than 2% of surveys returned. When a questionnaire was randomly selected for a quality control check, quality control specialists hand-checked data on the form against the data that was present in the database for that questionnaire. These quality control checks indicated a better than 99.9% accuracy rate. After all survey booklets were scanned or entered, the data were cleaned using the honesty criteria established in previous PNA administrations. In particular, questionnaires were considered invalid and removed from the dataset if any of the following were true: 1) Students answered fewer than 10 survey items. 2) Students reported using a fictitious drug. 3) Students marked suspiciously and extremely high substance use (see WYSAC, 2010). 4) Students responded on the last survey question that their answers to the survey were not honest at all. 5) Students marked that they were in the 7 th, 9 th, or 11 th grades. 6) Students had an extremely high number of inconsistent answers. For example, if a participant said that he/she had no lifetime marijuana use but also said he/she had used marijuana in the past 30 days, the researcher scored this occurrence as an inconsistent response. A total of 38 inconsistency checks were performed on each survey. If a student accumulated more than eight inconsistent responses then their questionnaire was considered invalid and all of its data were removed. For the analysis, scale scoring and reported prevalence rates were based on already established scoring methods and cutpoints. As was done in all previous PNA iterations, the researchers weighted data to help correct for non-response bias. The State Methodological Report (WYSAC, 2010) provides a full explanation of the scoring and weighting used in the 2010 PNA. Data analysis identified prevalence rates for the following: Lifetime substance use 30-day substance use Heavy substance use Participation in problem behaviors Students at-risk based upon Risk Factors Students at-high-protection based upon Protective Factors Within each of these categories, the grade-level profile chart orders the prevalence rates from highest to lowest. Trend graphs display year-to-year changes for each grade level. Because the PNA is a census survey, the application of statistical significance to determine meaningful changes between any two survey iterations is inappropriate. Instead, WYSAC developed some guidelines to narrow the changes to those that are potentially meaningful.

28 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 28 In developing these guidelines, WYSAC explored several different criteria. Analysts applied proposed criteria to the results for variously sized communities to test how well each criteria captured obvious and important changes from survey year to survey year. During this investigation, no single set of criteria consistently and completely characterized the important changes within all communities. For most of the criteria being tested, the number of changes identified as potentially meaningful varied substantially from community to community. Based on this analysis, WYSAC chose a set of criteria as guidelines that on average provided from three to 12 potentially meaningful changes for each grade level. For comparisons of individual years, analysts declared any absolute change of a pre-specified number of percentage points as a meaningful change. Within substance use and problem behavior rates, analysts increased for each ascending grade level the amount of change needed to stand out as meaningful. This procedure helped to account for maturational issues. Students likelihood of reporting participation in these behaviors increased with each ascending grade level, as did the corresponding variation of change from iteration to iteration. Consequently, 6 th grade students needed to have an absolute change of 5.0 percentage points before the change was considered meaningful; this went up to 7.5 percentage points for 8 th grade, 10.0 percentage points for 10 th grade, and 12.5 percentage points for 12 th grade. For example, a decrease in lifetime inhalant use for 6 th grade students from 10% of respondents in 2008 to 4% of respondents in 2010 would be considered meaningful, but an identical percentage point decrease from 30% of 12 th grade respondents to 24% would not be considered meaningful. The Risk and Protective Factor cutpoints already accounted for maturational issues as part of the norming process. As a result, analysts declared for all grade levels a constant absolute change of 15.0 or greater percentage points to be the amount of difference necessary for any Risk or Protective Factor prevalence change to qualify as meaningful. Prevalence rates can increase or decrease each time they are measured. The amount and direction of the change is dependent upon a variety of factors, including the number of people who are taking the survey, cohort effects, and true changes in the variable of interest. A measure of typical change is the standard deviation around the mean of the previous three survey years. If the true value of the variable has not changed, the 2010 measurement of the survey would be expected, with 95% confidence, to be within two standard deviations around the mean of the previous three survey measurements. Larger differences are considered statistically significant and meaningful Survey Limitations and Considerations The Prevention Needs Assessment is a self-report questionnaire that students complete voluntarily and anonymously. This type of survey administration inherently involves several important limitations and considerations Self-Report Limitations As in all self-report surveys, a variety of factors may affect the accuracy of the survey responses. For instance, dishonesty always has the potential to bias results. In some cases, the dishonesty may make the results look better than the truth because the students are attempting to answer in a socially desirable way. In other cases, dishonesty may make the results look worse than the truth because students exaggerate their participation in substance use and problem behaviors. To help mitigate both types of dishonesty, the PNA is administered anonymously, which provides a safe environment

29 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 29 to encourage students to answer openly and honestly. In addition, the PNA has several honesty checks that help detect when a student may be exaggerating. Other self-report limitations that affect how students answer questions include: ( 1 ) the student s ability to remember the events and behaviors that the questionnaire asks about, ( 2 ) the student s interpretation of what the question is asking, and (3) how applicable the student feels the question is in his/her life. An example in which each of these limitations may play a part is the question asking, How old were you when you first had more than a sip or two of beer, wine, or hard liquor (for example, vodka, whiskey, or gin)? Memory limitations may play a role in answering this question because the more time has passed since the student first used alcohol, the more difficult it may be for him/her to recall the exact age of first use. In addition, students who have never used alcohol may not answer the question, even though never have is an option, because they do not feel that it is applicable to them. Finally, the definition of more than a sip or two could vary substantially from the 6 th grade students, who might interpret that phrase much more conservatively than the 12 th grade students, for whom a sip might be thought of as substantially more. Students with special needs, reading problems, or for whom a time limit is a problem may have difficulty answering or completing the survey. More specifically, students with special needs may be unable to read the survey questions or be unable to respond to the survey. As a result, these students may not be able to complete the questionnaire or they may not answer consistently because of their needs. Students with reading problems may have difficulty understanding some of the PNA questions. To help mitigate these concerns, researchers gave permission to survey administrators to pronounce and define some words the students may have difficulty reading, if asked. Nevertheless, if a student did not feel comfortable reading the questionnaire, then he/she may simply have chosen not to participate. Researchers instructed schools and survey administrators to allow students at least 45 minutes to complete the survey. Based on previous administrations, most students easily complete the survey within those 45 minutes; however, some students require more time to finish the questionnaire, and therefore some students may not have answered as completely as possible. Overall, the limitations do not severely threaten the validity of the survey results. Rather, the reader of this report can consider the results to be well correlated, but not wholly accurate, measures of students attitudes, beliefs, behaviors, and perceptions Limitations in Data Collection In addition to the self-report limitations explained above, the way in which the data were gathered may also impact the results of the PNA. Since its inception, survey researchers have designed the PNA in Wyoming as an attempted census survey of all 6 th, 8 th, 10 th, and 12 th grade students. However, a variety of factors played a role in making the PNA less than a full census survey. These factors included: Laramie County School District #1 did not participate in the 2010 PNA. Some schools chose to participate but failed to return any completed surveys. Parents who denied consent for their child s participation. Students themselves who chose not to participate or to complete the survey. Student who were absent from class on the date of the survey.

30 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 30 The fact that Laramie County School District #1 (LCSD #1), which serves the city of Cheyenne, refused to participate is a potential concern because Cheyenne is the largest city in Wyoming (Census, 2009). The analyst recognized this threat to the survey validity and examined how the state level results in the 2008 PNA differed depending upon whether or not Cheyenne s data was included in the analysis. Based on these comparisons, the differences were all very close to zero. At worst, a single indicator had a change of three percentage points and small number of indictors had a change of two percentage points. Overall, these results suggest that the statewide impact is likely to be minimal even though LCSD #1 is not part of the 2010 PNA. The Southeastern Region and Laramie County level impact is much greater. Cheyenne represents a much greater proportion of the population in these areas. Consequently, no results are available for the Southeastern Region and Laramie County. The other factors listed above also affect the other schools and school districts, resulting in a lessthan-perfect census in those entities as well. However, despite this concern, there is credible reason to believe that the PNA is still representative of the whole population. In particular, the students who take the PNA survey have similar demographic characteristics when compared to the complete general student population. Males and females are nearly equally represented. The reported race and ethnicity proportions are similar to those that the US Census collected in Wyoming for this age group. There is scant supporting evidence to suggest that other factors such as socioeconomic class would be different for the participants and nonparticipants. The biggest threat to the representativeness of the PNA occurred in grade levels in which the response rate was generally low. In those cases it is possible that the students who took the survey were fundamentally and consistently different from the students who did not take the survey, thus potentially introducing unwanted bias into the results. Some have argued that achieving higher response rates may be possible if the students are required to take the survey and/or the students responses are not anonymous. However, such methods are likely to create a situation where respondents are uncomfortable responding truthfully. The students would then be more likely to answer in ways that would make their behavior look better than it actually is. The methods used during the survey administration process are in place to maximize the response rate while minimizing these other sources of error and bias. One issue is whether there should be a confidence interval reported with the results because less than 100% of the students participated. Without a perfect census, there is some level of uncertainty about these estimates. However, because the participation rate is not random, it is difficult to know how to calculate the confidence interval because the uncertainty is not statistical error. Based on consultations with various statisticians, the author and primary analyst for this report decided to present the results without error bars or confidence intervals because the response rate is generally high, well over 40% in most cases, which reduces uncertainty. To compensate further, the author took a very conservative approach in determining meaningful changes from year to year. For example, Risk and Protective Factors had to change by 15 or more percentage points before being declared meaningfully different from the previous year. Thus, it is highly likely that changes that met the criteria for meaningful change are of true interest Survey modality For the first time, schools and school districts were given the choice to administer the survey over the internet using an online questionnaire or to use the traditional paper questionnaire. The research literature suggests that the results from online surveys typically do not differ substantially from

31 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 31 paper-based surveys (Denniston et al., 2010; Eaton et al., 2010; Bates & Cox, 2008; Lucia, Hermann & Killias, 2007; Denscombe, 2006; Vereecken & Maes, 2006; McCabe et al., 2005; Mangunkusumo et al., 2005; Wang, et al., 2005). These studies found very few differences in results based on whether the survey is online or paper based. The few differences encountered were inconsistent even within the same survey. Overall, the research suggests that the two different modes have at most a modest effect on survey results when administered in the school context. WYSAC wanted to verify that mode effects would not affect the PNA. Based on the PNA history, all schools in 2008 administered the survey using paper questionnaires. In 2010, some schools chose to administer the survey using the online survey form and other schools chose to administer the survey using the paper and pencil based survey. If there was no mode effect then WYSAC expected that the indicator rates for online schools and paper-based schools would change at nearly equal rates from 2008 to A significant mode effect would apparent if the online schools and the paper-based schools had different rates of change from 2008 to Using the primary indicators on the PNA, WYSAC made 228 comparisons (57 indicators by four grade levels) and found that only 12 of the indicators were significantly different between the online survey schools and the paper based schools. The expected error rate was 5% (i.e., α =.05). Based on that error rate, no more than 16 tests would be expected to be significant by chance alone. The actual number of significant differences is less than expected by chance alone. It appears that students who answer the survey using the online form answered similarly as students who used the paper survey. Because of these analyses, WYSAC made no adjustment based on survey mode. 4. Results 4.1. Using Figures and Tables in this Report This section of the report contains two basic types of graphs. The first is a profile of the current year s prevalence rates. These graphs are ordered so that the substance use prevalence rates, problem behavior prevalence rates, and Risk Factors having the highest prevalence within the community are listed first, followed by those with lower prevalence. The results are organized in this way because leaders and program administrators most often choose as priorities for prevention the substance use, problem behaviors, and Risk Factors with the highest prevalence rates. Protective Factors are presented with the lowest prevalence rates listed first, followed by Protective Factors with higher prevalence rates. Conversely, leaders and administrators usually choose as priorities for prevention the Protective Factors with the smallest percentage of students considered to be at-high-protection. The primary purpose of these profile graphs is to aid in the current planning process for prevention programs. However, the results within these graphs may be used to revisit established goals and priorities, to evaluate progress, and consider new action.. The second type of graph displays trends across time for each of the prevalence rates. These trend graphs display the prevalence rates for Wyoming across the past four administrations of the PNA. The labels in the trend graphs are marked using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ) for meaningful differences between 2008 and 2010, and using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ) when the 2010 results are significantly different than that the average of 2004, 2006 and When the substance use, heavy use, and problem behavior results for 2010 are compared to the results for 2008, the meaningful difference criterion varies by grade level. In 6 th grade the difference must be an increase or decrease of at least 5.0 percentage points between the years, in 8 th grade 7.5 percentage points, in 10 th grade 10.0 percentage points, and in 12 th grade 12.5 percentage points. Across all grade levels,

32 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 32 when Risk and Protective Factors in 2010 are compared to the Risk and Protective Factors in 2008, an increase or decrease of 15.0 percentage points or more is considered meaningfully different. For all prevalence rates, when the average of 2004, 2006, and 2008 results is compared to the 2010 results, absolute differences that are greater than two standard deviations from the mean are considered meaningful and significant. The actual prevalence rates for 2010 and the available results for the last four survey administrations are presented in Appendices A, B, and C. For ease of navigation between the graphs and the results tables, the electronic copy of this report contains hyperlinks in the figure and table titles that, when clicked, will jump the reader to the corresponding results table in the appendix, and back again to the results section when the appendix table title is clicked Prevalence of Substance Use and Problem Behaviors This PNA report measures the self-reported prevalence rates for 13 substances and seven problem behaviors. The students are asked about their substance use both in their lifetimes and during the past 30 days. They are also asked about heavy use of alcohol and tobacco. The problem behaviors assessed by the PNA represent some of the most common problem behaviors that youth engage in during their high school and middle school years, including fighting, selling drugs, and stealing vehicles th Grade Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence The survey results for 6 th grade students in Wyoming are presented in the graphs in this section. Figure 1 provides a profile of the currently reported substance use and problem behavior rates for 6 th grade students in Wyoming. In this figure, the blue bars represent Wyoming s prevalence rates for each substance and problem behavior. The trends over time are presented in the three figures that follow the current year s profile graphs. Specifically, Figure 2 displays the trends for 6 th grade lifetime substance use from 2004 to 2010 and Figure 3 displays the trends for 6 th grade 30-day substance use from 2004 to Figure 4 displays the changes in prevalence of both heavy cigarette use and heavy alcohol use, along with the changes in prevalence rates for the reported problem behaviors from 2004 to The moving average of the last three survey measurements is represented with a floating horizontal red dashed line. If a set of data is missing the moving average line then there are insufficient data for one or more years to calculate the moving averages. Meaningful changes between the 2008 and 2010 results are represented next to the substance type using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ). Meaningful changes between the 2010 results and the moving average are indicated next to the substance type using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ).

33 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 33 Figure 1. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rate profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

34 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 34 Figure 2. Lifetime substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders 1 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. 2 Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

35 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 35 Figure day substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders 1 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. 2 Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

36 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 36 Figure 4. Heavy substance use and problem behavior prevalence, PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

37 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming th Grade Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence The survey results for the 8 th grade students in Wyoming are presented in the graphs in this section. Figure 5 provides a profile of the currently reported substance use and problem behavior rates for 8 th grade students in Wyoming. In this figure, the blue bars represent the local level prevalence rates for each substance and problem behavior. The gray diamonds represent the state-level prevalence rates. The trends over time are presented in the three figures that follow the current year s profile graphs. Specifically, Figure 6 displays the trends for 8 th grade lifetime substance use from 2004 to 2010 and Figure 7 displays the trends for 8 th grade 30-day substance use from 2004 to Figure 8 displays the changes in prevalence of both heavy cigarette use and heavy alcohol use, along with the changes in prevalence rates for the reported problem behaviors from 2004 to The moving average of the last three survey measurements is represented with a floating horizontal red dashed line. If a set of data is missing the moving average line there are insufficient data for one or more years to calculate the moving average. Meaningful changes between the 2008 and 2010 results are represented next to the substance type using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ). Meaningful changes between the 2010 results and the moving average are indicated next to the substance type using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ).

38 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 38 Figure 5. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rate profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

39 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 39 Figure 6. Lifetime substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders 1 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. 2 Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

40 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 40 Figure day substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders 1 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. 2 Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

41 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 41 Figure 8. Heavy substance use and problem behavior prevalence, PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

42 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming th Grade Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence The survey results for the 10 th grade students in Wyoming are presented in the graphs in this section. Figure 9 provides a profile of the currently reported substance use and problem behavior rates for 10 th grade students in Wyoming. In this figure, the blue bars represent the local level prevalence rates for each substance and problem behavior. The gray diamonds represent the state-level prevalence rates. The trends over time are presented in the three figures that follow the current year s profile graphs. Specifically, Figure 10 displays the trends for 10 th grade lifetime substance use from 2004 to 2010 and Figure 11displays the trends for 10 th grade 30-day substance use from 2004 to Figure 12 displays the changes in prevalence of both heavy cigarette use and heavy alcohol use, along with the changes in prevalence rates for the reported problem behaviors from 2004 to The moving average of the last three survey measurements is represented with a floating horizontal red dashed line. If a set of data is missing the moving average line there are insufficient data for one or more years to calculate the moving average. Meaningful changes between the 2008 and 2010 results are represented next to the substance type using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ). Meaningful changes between the 2010 results and the moving average are indicated next to the substance type using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ).

43 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 43 Figure 9. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rate profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

44 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 44 Figure 10. Lifetime substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders 1 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. 2 Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

45 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 45 Figure day substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders 1 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. 2 Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

46 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 46 Figure 12. Heavy substance use and problem behavior prevalence, PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

47 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming th Grade Substance Use and Problem Behavior Prevalence The survey results for the 12 th grade students in Wyoming are presented in the graphs in this section. Figure 13 provides a profile of the currently reported substance use and problem behavior rates for 12 th grade students in Wyoming. In this figure, the blue bars represent the local level prevalence rates for each substance and problem behavior. The gray diamonds represent the state-level prevalence rates. The trends over time are presented in the three figures that follow the current year s profile graphs. Specifically, Figure 14 displays the trends for 12 th grade lifetime substance use from 2004 to 2010 and Figure 15 displays the trends for 12 th grade 30-day substance use from 2004 to Figure 16 displays the changes in prevalence of both heavy cigarette use and heavy alcohol use, along with the changes in prevalence rates for the reported problem behaviors from 2004 to The moving average of the last three survey measurements is represented with a floating horizontal red dashed line. If a set of data is missing the moving average line there are insufficient data for one or more years to calculate the moving average. Meaningful changes between the 2008 and 2010 results are represented next to the substance type using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ). Meaningful changes between the 2010 results and the moving average are indicated next to the substance type using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ).

48 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 48 Figure 13. Substance use and problem behavior prevalence rate profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming,12 th graders Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

49 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 49 Figure 14. Lifetime substance use prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming,12 th graders 1 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. 2 Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

50 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 50 Figure day substance use prevalence, PNA: Wyoming,12 th graders 1 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. 2 Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to Note: OTC Meds = Over-the-Counter Medication; Rx Meds = Prescription Medication

51 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 51 Figure 16. Heavy substance use and problem behavior prevalence, PNA: Wyoming,12 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

52 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming Risk Factor Prevalence Rates Each Risk Factor measured on the PNA is comprised of several survey questions that are combined to produce a scale score for each survey participant. Based on each Risk Factor scale score, students are classified as either being at-risk or not-at-risk for substance use, academic failure, and/or participation in problem behaviors. The Risk Factors measured on the PNA have been classified as belonging to four different domains: ( 1 ) Community, ( 2 ) Family, (3) School, and (4) Peer/Individual. Community leaders and substance use prevention program managers often select priority Risk Factors based on the percentage of students who are classified as at-risk for each Risk Factor. The logical basis for this decision is that the prevention efforts should focus on mitigating and changing those Risk Factors that affect the greatest percentage of students. As students exposure to Risk Factors decreases, they, based on theory, should be less likely to engage in substance use, experience academic failure, and/or participate in problem behaviors. The next sections present the prevalence rates of at-risk students for each Risk Factor measured on the PNA Prevalence of Risk Factors for 6 th Grade Students The Risk Factor survey results for the 6 th grade students in Wyoming are presented in the graphs in this section. Figure 17 provides a profile of the current Risk Factor prevalence rates for 6 th grade students in Wyoming. In the figure, Risk Factor prevalence rates are ordered based on the percentage of students who are considered to be at-risk. Risk Factors with the highest prevalence rates of at-risk students are listed first, followed by those Risk Factors with smaller rates. The blue bars represent the local prevalence rates for each Risk Factor and the gray diamonds represent the state-level prevalence rates. The trends in Risk Factor prevalence rates are presented in two figures that follow the current year s Risk Factor profile graphs. Specifically, Figure 18 displays the 6 th grade trends for the Risk Factors in the Community, Family, and School Domains from 2004 to Risk Factor trends in the Peer/Individual Domain are presented in Figure 19. Risk Factor rates that decrease with time signify possible improvement, whereas increasing rates signify possible deterioration. The moving average of the last three survey measurements is represented with a floating horizontal red dashed line. If a set of data is missing the moving average line there are insufficient data from one or more years to calculate the moving average. Meaningful changes between the 2008 and 2010 results are represented next to the Risk Factor name using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ). Meaningful changes between the 2010 results and the moving average are indicated next to the Risk Factor name using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ).

53 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 53 Figure 17. Risk Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 6 th graders

54 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 54 Figure 18. At-risk youth by Community, Family and School Domains, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 6 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

55 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 55 Figure 19. At-risk youth, Peer/Individual Domain, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 6 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

56 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming Prevalence of Risk Factors for 8 th Grade Students The Risk Factor survey results for the 8 th grade students in Wyoming are presented in the graphs in this section. Figure 20 provides a profile of the current Risk Factor prevalence rates for 8 th grade students in Wyoming. Risk Factor prevalence rates are ordered based on the percentage of students who are considered to be at-risk. Risk Factors with the highest prevalence rates of at-risk students are listed first, followed by those Risk Factors with smaller rates. The blue bars represent the local prevalence rates for each Risk Factor and the gray diamonds represent the state-level prevalence rates. The trends in Risk Factor prevalence rates are presented in two figures that follow the current year s Risk Factor profile graphs. Specifically, Figure 21 displays the 8 th grade trends for the Risk Factors in the Community, Family and School Domains from 2004 to Risk Factor trends in the Peer/Individual Domain are presented in Figure 22. In general, Risk Factor rates that decrease with time signify possible improvement, whereas increasing rates signify possible deterioration. The moving average of the last three survey measurements is represented with a floating horizontal red dashed line. If a set of data is missing the moving average line there are insufficient data from one or more years to calculate the moving averages. Meaningful changes between the 2008 and 2010 results are represented next to the Risk Factor name using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ). Meaningful changes between the 2010 results and the moving average are indicated next to the Risk Factor name using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ).

57 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 57 Figure 20. Risk Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 8 th graders

58 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 58 Figure 21. At-risk youth by Community, Family and School Domains, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 8 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

59 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 59 Figure 22. At-risk youth, Peer/Individual Domain, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 8 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

60 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming Prevalence of Risk Factors for 10 th Grade Students The Risk Factor survey results for the 10 th grade students in Wyoming are presented in the graphs in this section. Figure 23 provides a profile of the current Risk Factor prevalence rates for 10 th grade students in Wyoming. Risk Factor prevalence rates are ordered based on the percentage of students who are considered to be at-risk. Risk Factors with the highest prevalence rates of at-risk students are listed first, followed by those Risk Factors with smaller rates. The blue bars represent the local prevalence rates for each Risk Factor and the gray diamonds represent the state-level prevalence rates. The trends in Risk Factor prevalence rates are presented in two figures that follow the current year s Risk Factor profile graphs. Specifically, Figure 24 displays the 10 th grade trends for the Risk Factors in the Community, Family and School Domains from 2004 to Risk Factor trends in the Peer/Individual Domain are presented in Figure 25. In general, Risk Factor rates that decrease with time signify possible improvement, whereas increasing rates signify possible deterioration. The moving average of the last three survey measurements is represented with a floating horizontal red dashed line. If a set of data is missing the moving average line, there are insufficient data from one or more years to calculate the moving average. Meaningful changes between the 2008 and 2010 results are represented next to the Risk Factor name using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ). Meaningful changes between the 2010 results and the moving average are indicated next to the Risk Factor name using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ).

61 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 61 Figure 23. Risk Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 10 th graders

62 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 62 Figure 24. At-risk youth by Community, Family and School Domains, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 10 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

63 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 63 Figure 25. At-risk youth, Peer/Individual Domain, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 10 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

64 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming Prevalence of Risk Factors for 12 th Grade Students The Risk Factor survey results for the 12 th grade students in Wyoming are presented in the graphs in this section. Figure 26 provides a profile of the current Risk Factor prevalence rates for 12 th grade students in Wyoming. Risk Factor prevalence rates are ordered based on the percentage of students who are considered to be at-risk. Risk Factors with the highest prevalence rates of at-risk students are listed first, followed by those Risk Factors with smaller rates. The blue bars represent the local prevalence rates for each Risk Factor and the gray diamonds represent the state-level prevalence rates. The trends in Risk Factor prevalence rates are presented in two figures that follow the current year s Risk Factor profile graphs. Specifically, Figure 27 displays the 12 th grade trends for the Risk Factors in the Community, Family and School Domains from 2004 to Risk Factor trends in the Peer/Individual Domain are presented in Figure 28. In general, Risk Factor rates that decrease with time signify possible improvement, whereas increasing rates signify possible deterioration. The moving average of the last three survey measurements is represented with a floating horizontal red dashed line. If a set of data is missing the moving average line there are insufficient data from one or more years to calculate the moving average. Meaningful changes between the 2008 and 2010 results are represented next to the Risk Factor name using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ). Meaningful changes between the 2010 results and the moving average are indicated next to the Risk Factor name using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ).

65 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 65 Figure 26. Risk Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, 12 th graders

66 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 66 Figure 27. At-risk youth by Community, Family and School Domains, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 12 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

67 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 67 Figure 28. At-risk youth, Peer/Individual Domain, PNA percentages: Wyoming, 12 th graders 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.

68 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming Protective Factors Prevalence Rates Each Protective Factor measured on the PNA is comprised of several survey questions that are combined to produce a scale score for each survey participant. Based on each Protective Factor scale score, students are classified as either being at-high-protection or not at-high-protection for substance use, academic failure, and/or participation in problem behavior(s). Community leaders and substance use prevention program managers usually choose as priorities Protective Factors with the smallest prevalence of at-high-protection students. The next sections present the prevalence rates each Protective Factor measured on the PNA Prevalence of Protective Factors The PNA Protective Factor survey results for the students in Wyoming are presented in the graphs in this section. Figure 29 provides a profile of the current Protective Factor prevalence rates for students in Wyoming. Protective Factor prevalence rates are ordered based on the percentage of students who are considered to be at-high-protection. Protective Factors with the lowest prevalence rates are listed first, followed by those Protective Factors with higher rates. In general, Protective Factor rates that increase with time signify possible improvement, whereas decreasing rates signify possible deterioration. Within the trend graphs, the moving average of the last three survey measurements is represented with a floating horizontal red dashed line. If a set of data is missing the moving average line, there are insufficient data for one or more years to calculate the moving average. Meaningful changes between the 2008 and 2010 results are represented next to the Protective Factor name using a superscripted numeral one ( 1 ). Meaningful changes between the 2010 results and the moving average are indicated next to the Protective Factor name using a superscripted numeral two ( 2 ). Figure 30. Protective Factor prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, by grades surveyed displays the trends from 2004 to 2010 for all Protective Factors in all grade levels.

69 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 69 Figure 29. Protective Factor profile, 2010 PNA: Wyoming, all grade levels

70 WYSAC, University of Wyoming 2010 PNA- Wyoming 70 Figure 30. Protective Factor prevalence rates, PNA: Wyoming, by grades surveyed 1 2 Meaningful difference between the 2008 and the 2010 prevalence rates. Meaningful difference between the 2010 prevalence rate and the average prevalence rate from 2004 to 2008.