Government of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics. Afghanistan. Opium Winter Assessment

Government of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment January 2009

ABBREVIATIONS AGE Anti Government Elements GPS Global Positioning System ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC) ORA Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey MCN Ministry of Counter-Narcotics UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2007 Afghanistan Opium Survey and to the preparation of this report: Survey and Monitoring Directorate of the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics: Eng. Mohammad Ibrahim Azhar (Director), Mir Abdullah (Deputy Director) Survey Coordinators: Abdul Mateen (Eastern Region), Abdul Latif Ehsan (Western Region), Fida Mohammad (Northern Region), Sayeed Esaq Masomi (Central region), Mohammed Ishaq Anderabi (North-eastern Region), and Hashmatullah Asek (Southern Region). Technical staff: Mohammad Khyber Wardak (Data Expert), Mohammad Ajmal (Data Clerk), Sahar (Data Clerk). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Kabul) Jean-Luc Lemahieu (Country Representative) Shirish Ravan (Project Coordinator, RAS/ICMP), Ziauddin Zaki (National Project Coordinator), Abdul Mannan Ahmadzai (Survey Officer), Sayed Mehdi (Remote Sensing Analyst), Ahmad Jawid (Remote Sensing Analyst), Ramin Sobhi and Zia Ulhaq (Verification Reporters), Devashish Dhar (International Consultant) Survey Coordinators: Abdul Basir Basiret (Eastern Region), Abdul Jalil (Northern Region), Abdul Qadir Palwal (Southern Region), Fawad Alaie (Western Region), Mohammad Rafi Kabiri (Northeastern Region), Rahimullah Omar (Central Region), Sayed Ahmad (Southern Region), Abdul Rahim Marikh (Eastern Region), Fardin Osmani (Northern Region) Provincial Coordinators: Fazal Mohammad Fazli (Southern Region), Mohammad Alam Ghalib (Eastern Region), Altaf Hussain Joya (Western Region), Mohammed Alem Yaqubi (North-eastern Region), Lutfi Rahman Lutfi (Northern Region) United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna) Sandeep Chawla (Director, Division of Policy Analysis and Public Affairs) Angela Me (Chief, Statistics and Surveys Section - SASS) Fernanda Tripodi (Programme Officer, SASS/ICMP), Javier Teran (Statistician, SASS/ICMP), Coen Bussink (Remote Sensing Expert SASS/ICMP), Patrick Seramy (Database management, SASS/ICMP), Thomas Pietschmann (Research Officer, SASS), The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field surveyors, who often faced difficult security conditions. The UNODC Illicit Crop Monitoring activities in Afghanistan were made possible by financial contributions from the Governments of Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. FINDINGS... 1 1.1. GENERAL FINDINGS... 1 1.2. DRIVING FORCES BEHIND OPIUM CULTIVATION TRENDS IN 2009... 10 1.3. NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM POPPY... 14 1.4. CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR POPPY CULTIVATION... 14 1.5. AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE... 14 1.6. FIELD SECURITY DURING ORA IMPLEMENTATION... 15 1.7. ERADICATION AND NON-CULTIVATION OF OPIUM... 16 1.8. PRICES... 17 1.9. OTHER FINDINGS... 19 2. FINDINGS BY PROVINCE... 26 NORTH-EASTERN REGION... 26 BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE... 26 TAKHAR PROVINCE... 26 KUNDUZ PROVINCE... 27 EASTERN REGION... 28 NANGARHAR PROVINCE... 28 KUNAR PROVINCE... 28 LAGHMAN PROVINCE... 28 NURISTAN PROVINCE... 29 KAPISA PROVINCE... 29 NORTHERN REGION... 30 BAGHLAN PROVINCE... 30 BAMYAN PROVINCE... 30 BALKH PROVINCE... 30 FARYAB PROVINCE... 31 JAWZJAN PROVINCE... 31 SAMANGAN PROVINCE... 31 SARI PUL PROVINCE... 32 CENTRAL REGION... 33 GHAZNI PROVINCE... 33 KHOST PROVINCE... 33 LOGAR PROVINCE... 33 PAKTIKA PROVINCE... 34 PAKTYA PROVINCE... 34 PARWAN PROVINCE... 34 PANJSHIR PROVINCE... 35 WARDAK PROVINCE... 35 KABUL PROVINCE... 35 SOUTHERN REGION... 36 KANDAHAR PROVINCE... 36 HILMAND PROVINCE... 36 URUZGAN PROVINCE... 36 ZABUL PROVINCE... 37 DAY KUNDI PROVINCE... 37 WESTERN REGION... 38 HIRAT PROVINCE...38 FARAH PROVINCE... 38 NIMROZ PROVINCE... 39 GHOR PROVINCE... 39 BADGHIS PROVINCE... 39 3. METHODOLOGY... 40 2

MAPS Map 1: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (by province)...2 Map 2: Expected opium poppy cultivation level (by province)...3 Map 3: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (by district)...4 Map 4: Regional grouping of provinces for opium poppy survey in Afghanistan...5 Map 5: Calendar of opium poppy planting in 2009...20 Map 6: Expected opium poppy flowering time in 2009...21 Map 7: Expected opium poppy harvest time in 2009...22 Map 8: Dry opium prices ($)...23 Map 9: Sampling frame and selected villages...24 Map 10: Cultivation trend vs. security situation...25

PREFACE This has been a hard winter for the people of Afghanistan. Last year s drought and a food crisis have added increased hardship to regions grappling with poverty and plagued by insecurity. Concerns for personal safety have been compounded by concerns for food security and social protection. A positive development is that opium cultivation is down, at least when measured in physical terms (hectares and tonnes). The 18 provinces that were opium-free in 2008 are likely to remain that way in 2009, and four others (Badakhshan, Baghlan, Faryab and Hirat) could join them with timely poppy elimination this spring. This will deepen the trend of the past few years that showed opium cultivation overwhelmingly concentrated in the seven most unstable provinces in the south and south west. Even in major poppy growing provinces like Hilmand, UNODC expects some decrease in opium cultivation in 2009. In the north, centre, and east of the country, pressure from government authorities, scarcity of food grains, an effective pre-planting information campaign as well as higher prices for licit crops seem to have contributed to the decline. To consolidate these gains particularly during these times of food shortages and economic hardship provinces and districts that have rid themselves of opium deserve more support. The Good Performance Initiative deserves further encouragement in order to stimulate the process. In the south and south-west, reduced opium cultivation is due to high wheat prices, low opium prices, and low availability of water due to severe drought. The effective implementation of the Provincial Counter- Narcotics Strategy in Hilmand shows what strong leadership can achieve, even against the odds. Further development assistance and the engagement of all stakeholders can turn drug zones into Food Zones, and make southern Afghanistan once again the country s bread-basket instead of the world s biggest source of illicit drugs. Despite the anticipated reduction in the opium crop, prices continue to fall (by around 20%). This can be attributed to the massive glut on the opium market due to major overproduction during the past three years. Nevertheless, the drugs trade remains a major source of revenue for anti-government forces and organized crime operating in and around Afghanistan. Drug money is also a lubricant for corruption that contaminates power. While more attention must be devoted to law enforcement (destroying drug labs, markets, and convoys, and tightening border controls), the flow of drug money into private hands and public pockets has to be stopped (by fighting corruption, cutting the flow of laundered money, and seizing the assets of crime). Furthermore, because of its cross-cutting nature, counter-narcotics must be integrated into the wider process of state building and economic development. The opium trend is going in the right direction, but there must be long term structural changes: to eradicate poverty, not just poppies; to root out corruption, not just illicit crops; and to strengthen human security in the process of reducing the threat posed by drugs and crime. Progress depends on more than reducing the amount of opium hectarage: it depends on improving security, integrity, economic growth, and governance. We must concentrate on winning long-term campaigns, not just short-term battles. In the past century, several countries have managed to reverse an opium epidemic. Afghanistan can do the same. It will take time, leadership, and resources, but these are all worthy investments to improve the health, security, and development of Afghanistan, and reduce the impact that its opium has on the rest of the world. Antonio Maria Costa Executive Director United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

1. FINDINGS 1.1. GENERAL FINDINGS Opium poppy cultivation trends The 2009 Opium Winter Rapid Assessment is based on a small sample of villages and the results are meant to be indicative. The main findings are summarised below (see also Table 1): Following the 19 % reduction in opium cultivation in 2008 (157,000 ha), the 2009 Opium Winter Rapid Assessment (ORA) anticipates a further decrease in opium cultivation. There are no provinces which are likely to show an increase in opium cultivation. The eighteen provinces reported to be poppy-free in 2008, are likely to remain poppyfree in 2009. ORA results indicate that fourteen are confirmed as likely to remain poppyfree while the other four provinces, Nangarhar Ghor, Samangan, and Sari Pul, could not yet be ascertained. Nangarhar is likely to be almost poppy free but more data is needed for confirmation. The results for Ghor, Samangan and Sari Pul provinces could not be assessed since cultivation in these provinces takes place during the spring season (March/April). A strong decrease in opium cultivation is expected in Baghlan and Hirat provinces and opium elimination activities can make these provinces poppy-free. A decrease in opium cultivation is expected in seven provinces: Badakhshan, Badghis, Faryab, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar and Laghman. Badakhshan and Faryab provinces have the potential to become poppy-free if opium cultivation in spring is controlled. The level of opium cultivation in other provinces will remain significantly low. The seven provinces in the south and south-west region (Day Kundi, Farah, Hilmand, Kandahar, Nimroz, Uruzgan and Zabul) which accounted for 98% of Afghanistan s opium cultivation in 2008, are likely to show a decrease in 2009. It is expected that this region will still remain the most significant with over 90% cultivation in Afghanistan. Overall, the cultivation of opium in Afghanistan is likely to decrease in 2009 and the number of poppy-free provinces may increase to twenty-two if timely and appropriate poppy eradication measures are implemented in Baghlan, Hirat, Badakhshan and Faryab provinces. Table 1 Opium cultivation trends at glance Cultivation trend in No. of Provinces Comments 2009 provinces 14 Balkh, Bamyan, Ghazni, Jawzjan, These provinces were poppy free in 2008. Khost, Kunduz, Logar, Nuristan, Paktika, Paktya, Panjshir, Parwan, Takhar, Wardak Uncertain 4 Ghor, Nangarhar, Samangan, Sari Pul Too early to assess the opium cultivation that may happen in spring (Mar/Apr). Strong decrease (reaching very low level of opium cultivation) 2 Baghlan, Hirat These provinces can become poppy free if timely eradication activities are implemented. Decrease (reaching low level of opium cultivation) Decrease (Maintaining high level of opium cultivation) 7 Badakhshan, Badghis, Faryab, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar, Laghman 7 Day Kundi, Farah, Hilmand, Kandahar, Nimroz, Uruzgan, Zabul Badakhshan and Faryab provinces can become poppy free if the spring opium cultivation is controlled Over 90 per cent of opium cultivation likely to be from these 7 provinces. 1

Map 1: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (by province) 2

Map 2: Expected opium poppy cultivation level (by province) 3

Map 3: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (by district) 4

Map 4: Regional grouping of provinces for opium poppy survey in Afghanistan 5

Table 2 Opium cultivation trends in 2009 (by province) Region PROVINCE Estimated opium cultivation in 2008 (ha) Central Eastern Northern Northeastern Southern Western Total (Rounded) 2009 Expected opium cultivation change Expected opium cultivation levels Ghazni Kabul 310 Decrease Low Khost Logar Paktika Paktya Panjshir Parwan Wardak Kapisa 436 Decrease Low Kunar 290 Decrease Low Laghman 425 Decrease Low Nangarhar Uncertain Insignificant Nuristan Baghlan 475 Strong decrease Low Balkh Bamyan Faryab 291 Decrease Low Jawzjan Samangan Uncertain Insignificant Sari Pul Uncertain Insignificant Badakhshan 200 Decrease Insignificant Kunduz Takhar Day kundi 2,273 Decrease Moderate Hilmand 103,590 Decrease Very high Kandahar 14,623 Decrease High Uruzgan 9,939 Decrease High Zabul 2,335 Decrease High Badghis 587 Decrease Low Farah 15,010 Decrease High Ghor Uncertain Insignificant Hirat 266 Strong decrease Low Nimroz 6,203 Decrease High 157,000 ha Overall Decrease 6

ORA surveyor with the farmer in Eastern region (ORA 2009) Wheat field in Kunduz province of North-eastern region (ORA 2009) 7

Key highlights of ORA The 2009 ORA highlights the following key cultivation trends as compared to 2008: Central region: the entire central region can become poppy-free if opium cultivation in Surobi district of Kabul province is eliminated. Eastern region: Opium cultivation in eastern region may be drastically reduced. The cultivation level in Kunar and Laghman provinces is lower as compared to 2008 results, and restricted to mountainous regions. Opium cultivation in Nangarhar province is reported to be of insignificant level and is confined to remote areas of Achin, Goshta, Hisarak, Khogyani, Kot,Lal Pur, Nazyan, Pachir Wa Agam, and Sherzad district. Western region: There is a likely to be decrease in opium cultivation in Nimroz (Khash Rod district) and Farah province. Together these two provinces contributed over 21,000 ha of opium cultivation in 2008. Ghor province may still remain poppy-free though the assessment will have to be done after the cultivation season which starts in late March/April. North-east region: Badakhshan is the only province in north-eastern region where opium has traditionally been cultivated. Assessment of this province will also be done after spring (March/ April) 2009. Southern region: ORA in southern region shows a significant reduction in opium cultivation, even though it would still remain the largest opium producing region. Hilmand province is expected to retain its status of the largest opium cultivating province. Northern region: The region will become poppy free if opium cultivation in Faryab, Baghlan, Samangan and Sari Pul provinces is prevented during spring 2009. Although opium is cultivated in remote areas of Nangarhar province, even if at an insignificant level, effective eradication efforts can render it a poppy free province. Nangarhar has always been a volatile province and after many years of cultivation, reaching over 18,000 ha, it finally became poppy-free in 2008. Balkh is likely to remain poppy-free for the third year consecutively in 2009. In 2005 and 2006, Balkh merged as the only major opium cultivating province in the northern region, but became poppy-free in 2007. Farah and Nimroz (Khash Rod district) remain important poppy-growing provinces in the western region, although the severe drought in 2008 negatively impacted on the overall cultivation level. Hilmand province has been the largest opium cultivating province since 2004 and it is likely to remain so in 2009. It is expected that the cultivation level will be reduced in Himland, due to lower prices for opium as a result of a lower demand. Due to the drought in 2008, the availaibility of water in irrigated areas is extremely poor throughout Afghanistan. This may be one of the prominent reasons for low levels of opium cultivation during the fall season (low altitude irrigated areas). Scarcity of irrigation water in the early stage of crop may also result in low opium poppy yields in 2009. The quality of opium crop in high altitude rainfed areas of northern Afghanistan will depend on the availability of rains during the upcoming spring season. Although the Government and international stakeholders remain committed to eradication, no Governor-led eradication activity had been initiated in any part of the country by the time this Rapid Assessment was completed in mid-january 2008. However, few farmers have eradicated their opium fields in Kapisa, Day Kundi and Nangarhar provinces due to the pressure from Government authorities. 8

Surveyor interviewing village headman in Mihtarlam district of Laghman Province (ORA 2009) Growth stage of poppy in Laskargah district of Hilmand province in December 2009 (ORA2009) 9

1.2. DRIVING FORCES BEHIND OPIUM CULTIVATION TRENDS IN 2009 During the 2009 ORA, village headmen from poppy-growing and non-poppy growing villages were asked to state the reason that predominantly drove the farmers to cultivate opium instead of other crops or to not cultivate it at all. Reasons for opium cultivation in 2009 Higher sale price of poppy as compared to other crops was the dominant reason (53%) for growing opium poppy. Although the opium price continues to decrease, its level is still higher than other crops and for some farmers, opium continues to be a more lucrative investment than other crops. About one third of respondents also cited poverty alleviation as the most dominant reason. Interestingly, 7% of the responses for growing opium poppy was the lack of governmental control. While it is among the lowest response, it is still significant as a reason. Figure 1Reasons for opium cultivation in 2009 in opium growing villages High sale price of opium 53% Poverty alleviation 32% Other 8% Lack of government control 7% 0% 20% 40% 60% Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2009 Reasons reported by headmen for not cultivating opium differed between the southern-western region and the rest of the country. The dominant reasons for not growing poppy in the south and western region are the high sale price of wheat and the fact that opium is against Islam. Pressure from Government authorities and low income from poppy were also mentioned, but by fewer headmen. About a quarter of the overall response indicate the weather or the drought as one of the reasons for not cultivating opium. 10

Figure 2 Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2009 (southern and western region) High sale price of wheat 22% Against Islam 21% Pressure from Government authorities 16% Low income from opium Unsuitable climatic condition 14% 15% Percent Drought 7% Elders and Shura decision 3% Other 2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Note: 98 per cent of the total poppy of Afghanistan was cultivated in this region in 2008 The dominant reason for not growing poppy in the rest of the country (provinces outside the southern and south-western region) is the pressure from the Government authorities as cited by over half of the respondents. Feedback received from surveyors and provincial coordinators also highlighted the scarcity of food grains as one of the reasons for not cultivate opium. Inadequate irrigation water due to severe drought prevailing from 2008 was mentioned as one of the reasons for not cultivating opium in the different parts of the country (Figure 2 and Figure 3). However, it seems that the drought may have adversely affected the fall season opium cultivation more in the south-west than in other regions. 11

Figure 3 Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2009 (provinces other than in southern and south-western region) Pressure from Government authorities 52% Against Islam 15% Low income from opium 10% Drought 7% Other 7% Elders and Shura decision 6% Unsuitable climatic condition 3% High sale price of wheat 0.4% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Note: Only 2 per cent of the total poppy of Afghanistan was cultivated in this region in 2008 Driving forces behind reduced level of opium cultivation by region Central region Low level of opium cultivation in the central region is attributed to unfavourable climatic condition in most of the provinces (Ghazni, Wardak, Paktika, Panjshir, Parwan, Logar and Paktya). The weather in Khost province is favourable for opium cultivation, however, the presence of legitimate governance and its cooperation with Shura leaders is the driving force behind the opium free status of the province. Opium cultivation in Surobi district of Kabul province is linked with the dominance of insurgent groups. The provinces in the central region are smaller in size and accessible to aid agencies. This has allowed alternative development programs which are visible in rural areas. This region will remain a low opium cultivating one due to the limitations of climatic and terrain conditions and in the focus group discussions a mention was also made to its vicinity to urban centres that provide off-farm employment opportunities. Eastern region Farmers in this region are reportedly suffering from poverty and hunger due to unemployment and poor income from agriculture in 2008. Poppy cultivation has almost been eliminated from Nangarhar province due to several factors like pressure by Government authorities, fear of eradication, effective pre planting campaign, low price of opium and high price of food grains. Low cultivation in Kunar and 12

Laghman provinces is attributed to pressure by Government authorities, high prices of food grains and low prices of opium. Farmers felt that alternative development activities benefit specific areas and do not reach the grass-root level. Thus, it is difficult to assess the impact of these development activities on the current opium cultivation trend. Farmers in Nangarhar province (especially in the districts where tribes stand firmly united) may bounce back with opium cultivation in coming years if development efforts do not reach the grass-root level. Debriefing of surveyors and UNODC provincial coordinators showed that farmers are willing to comply with the government policies and its counter narcotic activities when they see that development activities are carried out in their province. Northern region Many headmen reported that farmers were discouraged from planting opium because of the pressure from the government. The presence of the legitimate governance maintains favourable security conditions to implement counter narcotic policies. Another driving factor is the severe drought prevailing in 2008 that raised the prices of essential commodities. Alternative development activities are focussed in and around province and district centres and therefore, the benefit of these activities does not reach the villages away from the centre. This indicates that these development activities are not the driving forces responsible for low level of opium cultivation. The status of low opium cultivation can be maintained in this region if agricultural assistance programs are provided to the farmers throughout the region. North-eastern region Low opium cultivation in this region can be attributed to the presence of legitimate governance, low prices of opium, high prices of food grains and demand for cereal crops (due to the crop failure because of the drought). In Badakhshan, alternative development activities seem to have minimal impact on the life of farmers, which makes it difficult to assess the overall impact of these activities on opium cultivation. Farmers in Badakhshan may bounce back to opium cultivation if government fails to deliver promises made to farmers for alternative development activities. Badakhshan is a traditional opium cultivating province and cultivation was significantly high until 2006. Southern region Although the southern region remains the largest opium cultivation area, the lower prices of opium in 2009 will see a reduction of cultivation. High prices of food grains and low prices of opium make opium a less attractive crop than in previous years. Fear of eradication and scarcity of water in the districts affected by drought will also contribute to reduced opium cultivation in this region. Farmers in this region have been offered support in agriculture, such as improved seeds and fertilizers. Various projects are being implemented like construction of roads, culverts, flood prevention dykes, irrigation canals, cleaning of canals, electricity supplies etc. However, it is difficult to assess the impact of these development activities on poppy cultivation, because in general farmers do not participate in government initiatives. The reduced level of opium cultivation may remain stable in the coming years if opium prices remain low and counter narcotic measures are effectively implemented. Farmers may bounce back with high opium cultivation if opium prices rise and current insecurity situation prevails. 13

Western region The dominant reasons for the reduced level of opium in 2009 are the drought prevailing from 2008 and the low opium prices which are the result of a lower demand for opium. Nimroz and Farah provinces, where poppy cultivation is normally high, are severely affected by the drought and during the current cultivation season there is insufficient irrigation water. Although alternative development activities are ongoing in certain areas, their visible impact on the opium cultivation can not be assessed at this stage. If opium prices increase in the near future and the socio-political situation remains unfavourable, there is the risk that this region will bounce back to high opium cultivation in coming years. 1.3. NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM POPPY Of the 484 villages visited, 130 (27 %) reported that they expect to grow opium poppy in 2009. The percentage of poppy-growing villages among those visited varies from region to region. In the southern region, 71 per cent of the surveyed villages reported poppy cultivation in 2009. During ORA 2008, 85% of the villages in southern region reported opium cultivation. Similar trend is also noticed in north-eastern region. Table 3 Proportion of poppy-growing villages % of villages surveyed (ORA 2009) % of villages surveyed (ORA 2008) Region Non-poppy growing Poppy growing Non-poppy growing Poppy growing Central 99% 1% 99% 1% Eastern 91% 9% 92% 8% North-eastern 97% 3% 76% 24% Northern 96% 4% 87% 13% Southern 29% 71% 15% 85% Western 65% 35% 63% 37% Total 73% 27% 68% 32% 1.4. CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR POPPY CULTIVATION Respondents in Day Kundi, Hilmand, Badghis and Nimroz reported that they had received cash advances from external sources to grow opium poppy. The ORA 2009 indicates that 18 % (29 % in ORA 2008) of the surveyed opium poppy-growing villages received such advances. 1.5. AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE Of the 484 villages visited, 125 have received agricultural assistance (26 %) in the form of seed, fertilizers and irrigation facilities. 81 % of villages that have received agricultural assistance do not cultivate poppy, which suggests that agricultural assistance has a direct effect on the extent of opium poppy cultivation. An analysis of the link between agricultural assistance and poppy cultivation by region appears to confirm that villages that have not received assistance are more likely to cultivate opium poppy. 14

The exception is the southern region where 66% of villages cultivate opium poppy despite receiving agricultural assistance. The corresponding figure for the western region is 30%; while in rest of the regions, fewer villages that received agricultural assistance intend to grow poppy. Table 4 Agricultural assistance vis-à-vis opium cultivation Region Central Eastern North-eastern Northern Southern Western Agricultural assistance received No. of villages surveyed No opium Opium poppy poppy cultivation cultivation Total no. of villages surveyed % of villages cultivating poppy despite having received agricultural assistance N 70 1 71 Y 11 11 0% N 42 5 47 Y 19 1 20 5% N 30 1 31 Y 7 7 0% N 31 2 33 Y 47 1 48 2% N 25 67 92 Y 10 19 29 66% N 55 30 85 Y 7 3 10 30% 1.6. FIELD SECURITY DURING ORA IMPLEMENTATION The security situation seems to be deteriorating each year and more difficulties were faced during the implementation of ORA 2009 when compared to previous years. The presence of antigovernment elements (AGE) in the central region (Wardak, Ghazni, Logar, Paktika) made it difficult for surveyors to carry survey equipments such as GPS and digital cameras. Although security in Khost, Paktya, Kapisa (except Tagab district), Kabul (except Surobi district) is good, main roads are not safe as AGEs block the roads during the night to search for people linked to the Government. Security was a general concern in most areas in the southern region (Hilmand, Uruzgan, and Kandahar). In the western region, Nimroz and Farah provinces had poor security conditions. The survey indicates that approximately 60 per cent of villages with poor security and 51 per cent of those with very poor security are involved in poppy cultivation, as compared to only 12% and 4% of villages with good and very good security. Table 5 vis-à-vis opium cultivation No. of villages surveyed No opium Opium poppy poppy cultivation cultivation % of villages cultivating opium poppy Very poor 43 44 51% Poor 40 60 60% Good 166 22 12% Very good 105 4 4% 15

1.7. ERADICATION AND NON-CULTIVATION OF OPIUM Of the 484 villages surveyed during the ORA, 130 have planted opium poppy for the 2009 cultivation season. 23 villages of these 130 faced opium eradication in 2008. Of these, 48% (11 villages) have planted opium poppy despite having experienced eradication activities in 2008. Table 6 Eradication in 2008 vis-à-vis opium cultivation in 2009 Eradication in 2008 No. of villages surveyed No opium Opium poppy poppy cultivation cultivation % of villages No* 339 119 26% Yes 12 11 48% *This also contains villages that have never grown poppy An awareness campaign to prevent poppy cultivation was conducted in many areas of Afghanistan in October and November 2008. Of the 146 surveyed villages targeted for the campaign, only 49 (34%t) are cultivating poppy. Table 7 Awareness campaign vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation in 2008 Awareness campaign No. of villages surveyed No opium poppy cultivation Opium poppy cultivation % villages No* 256 81 24% Yes 97 49 34% *This also contains villages that have never grown poppy Regional results indicate that the awareness campaign had some impact in the central and northern regions with mixed success rate in the eastern region. In the southern and western region, the campaign had little impact on opium cultivation. 16

Table 8 Awareness campaign vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation in 2008 (by region) REGION Central Eastern North-eastern Northern Southern Western Awareness campaign No. of villages surveyed No opium poppy cultivation Opium poppy cultivation % of villages cultivating opium poppy after campaign N 68 Y 13 1 7% N 24 Y 37 6 14% N 34 1 Y 3 0% N 57 1 Y 20 2 9% N 24 56 Y 11 30 68% N 49 23 Y 13 10 43% 1.8. PRICES UNODC collects monthly opium prices from 15 key provinces. In addition to this, the ORA 2009 collected price information in 484 surveyed villages. The average farm-gate prices of dry opium at the time of the survey were in line with the monthly price report in December 2008. The detailed overview of opium prices is provided based on Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2008. Graph 1: Regional average price of dry opium collected from traders, January 2005 December 2008 (Source: UNODC Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2008) 350 300 250 Price in (USD/Kg) 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Month Eastern Southern Western North-eastern Northern 17

Graph 2: Average farm-gate prices for dry opium (USD/kg) (Source: UNODC Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2008) 85 85 88 88 83 86 91 91 90 170 154 161 147 139 123 167 171 137 161 152 145 150 149 159 145 134 141 140 140 141 139 136 133 125 128 127 121 113 114 115 105 100 101 105 108 106 105 103 98 180 187 222 200 Price in (USD/Kg) 150 100 50 0 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Month Since June 2007, prices of dry opium in the Western and Eastern Regions remain higher than the prices in other regions. Increase in prices in the Western Region can be attributed to its strategic position in bordering Iran. In the last few months, prices in Southern and Northern region are becoming lower than in other regions. Lower prices in Southern region can be explained by the availability of opium stocks with the farmers and drug dealers, a result of bumper opium production in 2007 and 2008. Fresh opium prices at farm gate level were well above USD 100/kg until early 2007. Later, prices decreased drastically. The average price in November 2008 (USD 55/kg) is the lowest price ever recorded since UNODC started the price monitoring in Afghanistan. Fresh opium prices in 2006 were almost double that of the prices recorded in 2008. A similar trend can be observed for price of fresh opium at the trader level. The trend of converging opium prices across regions within Afghanistan could be an indication of greater integration among the local markets, but further studies are needed in order to better understand the dynamics of the internal market. 18

Farmers in Afghanistan usually cultivate crops twice a year in irrigated areas, typically growing maize, rice, vegetables or cotton after harvesting opium poppy or wheat. Some farmers grow cannabis after the first summer harvest. None of Afghanistan s licit agricultural products can currently match the income per hectare from opium poppy, although difference between prices of licit and illicit products has narrowed down since 2008. During ORA, respondents were asked the market prices of agricultural commodities. Comparison of prices collected during ORA 2008 and ORA 2009 shows significant decrease in prices of opium and substantial increase in prices of food grains. Table 9 Prices of opium and food grains in 2009 and 2008 Prices (USD per Kg) Crop name ORA 2009 ORA 2008 % difference Dry opium 85.16 112.87-25% Fresh opium 61.74 80.44-23% Wheat 0.60 0.40 49% Rice 1.12 0.89 26% Maize 0.42 0.28 48% 1.9. OTHER FINDINGS Poppy cultivation vis-à-vis cropping intensity (number of crops per year): It is observed that 69%of the poppy-growing villages grow two crops in a year; the other poppy growing villages grow a single crop in a year. Bribe to avoid eradication: Respondents in Hilmand, Uruzgan and Day Kundi provinces reported cases of avoiding opium eradication by offering gifts or bribe to the eradication teams. vis-à-vis poppy cultivation: Opium is cultivated in more than 50 per cent of the villages where security condition is poor. On the other hand, about 90% of the villages with good security do not cultivate opium. Taxes (usher) for poppy cultivation: Respondents were asked whether they paid taxes (usher) to anti-government elements. 97 % of respondents in the southern region and 52% of those in the western region replied that they indeed pay usher to several elements. Respondents in the eastern, central, northern and north-eastern regions reported that they do not pay such taxes. 19

Map 5: Calendar of opium poppy planting in 2009 20

Map 6: Expected opium poppy flowering time in 2009 21

Map 7: Expected opium poppy harvest time in 2009 22

Map 8: Dry opium prices ($) 23

Map 9: Sampling frame and selected villages 24

Map 10: Cultivation trend vs. security situation 25

2. Findings by province NORTH-EASTERN REGION BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE Interviews with the selected village headmen indicated that cultivation level in 2009 is insignificant as a result of effective information campaigns against opium cultivation and extensive eradication in 2008. In 2008, opium poppy cultivation in Badakhshan decreased by 95%. It is expected to further in the main opium cultivation areas, namely the Baharak, Faizabad, Jurm and Khash districts. While there could be a slight increase in Argo, Darayim, Teshkan and Kishm districts, the extent of cultivation should be less than that of last year. The situation will be clearer during the upcoming spring cultivation season (March/April 2009). Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 200 Irrigated and rain-fed Decrease Insignificant Autumn/spring End of June Good TAKHAR PROVINCE Respondents in all districts reported no change in opium poppy cultivation in 2009 and it is expected that Takhar remains poppy-free in 2009. Although this province will probably continue to lie on a major trafficking route to Tajikistan (via the Chah Ab, Yangi Qala, Darqad and Rustaq districts). Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated and rain-fed Autumn/spring Mid-June Very good 26

KUNDUZ PROVINCE Respondents across all districts reported no change in opium poppy cultivation in 2009 and it is likely that it will remain poppy-free. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated and rain-fed Autumn Mid-May Good 27

EASTERN REGION NANGARHAR PROVINCE Although there is opium cultivation in remote areas of Nangarhar province, the cultivation level seems to be insignificant. The province can once again remain poppy-free with effective eradication efforts. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated Uncertain Insignificant Autumn Mid-April Good KUNAR PROVINCE Opium poppy cultivation in 2009 is expected to further decrease as it did in 2008. Low cultivation in Kunar province is attributed to pressure by the Governor as well as to high prices of food grains and low prices of opium. Main opium poppy growing districts in Kunar are Asadabad, Barkunar, Nari, Sirkanay and Chawkay. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 290 Irrigated and rain-fed Decrease Low Autumn Mid-April Poor LAGHMAN PROVINCE Opium poppy cultivation in Laghman province is expected to decrease and remain at low levels in 2009. Low cultivation in Laghman province is attributed to pressure by the Governor as well as to high prices of food grains and low prices of opium. In 2008, Alishing, Qarghayi, Mihtarlam and Alingar were the main poppy-cultivating districts. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 425 Irrigated and rain-fed Decrease Low Autumn Beginning of April Poor 28

NURISTAN PROVINCE Nuristan is located at a high elevation and is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 like in 2008. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated and rain-fed Autumn Beginning of April Very Poor KAPISA PROVINCE There was 48% decrease in opium poppy cultivation in 2008 as compared to 2007 in Kapisa province. Further decrease in opium poppy cultivation is expected in 2009. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 436 Irrigated Decrease Low Autumn/spring Late May / early July Good 29

NORTHERN REGION BAGHLAN PROVINCE Opium poppy cultivation in Baghlan province will probably continue to remain low in 2009. The province could become poppy-free if spring opium cultivation is prevented. Opium poppy cultivation in Baghlan province decreased by 29% in 2008, as compared to 2007. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 475 Irrigated and rain-fed Strong decrease Low Autumn/spring End of May to mid-june Good BAMYAN PROVINCE Bamyan province is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 like in 2008. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated and rain-fed Spring Late July Good BALKH PROVINCE Bamyan province is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 like in 2008 and 2007. This trend may be attributed to successful campaigns by the Government against poppy cultivation. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated and rain-fed Autumn End of April Good 30

FARYAB PROVINCE There was a significant reduction (90%) in opium poppy cultivation in Faryab province in 2008. In 2009, further decrease in poppy cultivation is expected. The main opium poppy growing districts in 2008 were Bilchiragh, Qaisar, Kohistan and Maymana. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 291 Irrigated and rain-fed Decrease Low Autumn Mid-May Poor JAWZJAN PROVINCE Jawzjan province was not a significant opium poppy-growing area until 2002. From 2002 to 2006, however, cultivation increased sharply. In 2008, cultivation decreased by 100 per cent, and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 as well. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated and rain-fed Autumn and spring Late May Very good SAMANGAN PROVINCE Samangan province was poppy-free in 2007 and 2008; the trend in 2009 remains uncertain due to spring cultivation. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Rain-fed and irrigated Uncertain (Likely to be poppy free) Insignificant Spring End of July Very good 31

SARI PUL PROVINCE Sari Pul province was poppy-free in 2008. The trend in 2009 remains uncertain due to the spring cultivation. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated and rain-fed Uncertain(Likely to be poppy free) Insignificant Spring Late June Good 32

CENTRAL REGION GHAZNI PROVINCE Ghazni province has been poppy-free since 2005. ORA results suggest that the province will remain poppy-free in 2009 as well. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated Spring Late July Very poor KHOST PROVINCE Khost province has been poppy-free since 2007 and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 as well. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrgiated Spring Late May Good LOGAR PROVINCE Logar province has been poppy-free since 2005 and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009, although, according to the UNDSS the security situation has changed from very good in 2008 to poor in 2009. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated Spring/autumn May/June Poor 33

PAKTIKA PROVINCE Paktika province has been poppy-free since 2004 and the same trend is expected to continue in 2009. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated and rain-fed Spring June Poor PAKTYA PROVINCE Paktya province has been poppy-free since 2005 and the same trend is expected to continue in 2009. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated Spring June Good PARWAN PROVINCE Parwan has been poppy-free since 2007 and it is expected to stay poppy free in 2009 as well. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigate Spring Late June Good 34

PANJSHIR PROVINCE Panjshir province has always been poppy-free and it is expected to maintain the same status in 2009. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated Atumn May Very good WARDAK PROVINCE Wardak has been poppy-free since 2006 and it is expected to remain so in 2009. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated Autumn/spring Late May/early July Poor KABUL PROVINCE There was 38% reduction in opium cultivation in Kabul province in 2008. The cultivation in 2009 remains low and is expected to decrease further. There is only one district, namely Sarobi, where opium is cultivated. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 310 Irrigated Decrease Low Autumn Late May Very good 35

SOUTHERN REGION KANDAHAR PROVINCE There was a slight reduction in opium poppy cultivation in Kandahar province in 2008 (12%). In 2009, cultivation level is expected to decrease further due to the low price of opium, high prices of food commodities, fear of eradication and scarcity of water in some of the districts affected by the drought. The main opium poppy cultivation districts in 2008 were Arghandab, Arghistan, Daman, Ghorak, Kandahar (Dand), Khakrez, Maruf, Maywand, Miya Nishin, Nesh, Shah Walikot, Spin Boldak and Zhari. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 14,623 Irrigated Decrease High Autumn Beginning of May Poor HILMAND PROVINCE remained unchanged in 2008 at around 103,590 ha as compared to 2007 (102,770 ha) when it accounted for 66% of the total cultivation in Afghanistan. In 2009, cultivation level is expected to decrease due to the low price of opium. Fear of eradication and scarcity of water in some of the districts affected by drought also contributes to this reduction. The main opium poppy cultivation districts in 2008 were Nad Ali, Naway-i-Barakzayi, Nahri, Sarraj, Garmser (Hazarjuft), Musa Qala, Sangin, Dishu, Washer, Nawzad, Lashkar Gah and Kajaki. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 103,590 Irrigated Decrease Very high Autumn Beginning of May Very poor URUZGAN PROVINCE Uruzgan has traditionally been one of Afghanistan s major opium poppy-growing provinces. Opium cultivation increased slightly in 2008 from 9,204 ha in 2007 to 9,939 ha. In 2009 cultivation is expected to decrease due to the low price of opium, fear of eradication and scarcity of water in some of the districts affected by the drought. 36

Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 9,939 Irrigated Decrease High Autumn Mid-May Very poor ZABUL PROVINCE In 2008 there was an increase of 45% in opium poppy cultivation in Zabul province; however it is expected to decrease in 2009. The main opium poppy growing districts in 2008 were Day Chopan, Qalat, Shahjoy, Tarnak wa Jaldak, Shinkay, Shamulzayi, Naw Bahar, Mizan, Kakar (Khak-e- Afghan) and Arghandab. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 2,335 Irrigated Decrease High Autumn Mid-May Very poor DAY KUNDI PROVINCE In 2008 Day Kundi experienced an increase of 32% in opium poppy cultivation; however it is expected to decrease in 2009. The main opium poppy growing districts in 2008 were Gizab, Ishtarlay, Kijran, Khadir, Kiti, Miramor, Nili and Sharistan. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 2,273 Irrigated Decrease Moderate Spring July Very Poor 37

WESTERN REGION HIRAT PROVINCE In 2008 there was a significant decrease in opium poppy cultivation in Hirat province (83%). In 2009, a strong decrease is expected in opium cultivation in all the major opium growing districts namely Shindand, Kushk and Adraskan. The level of opium cultivation should continue to remain low in 2009 and it could become poppy-free if effective poppy elimination measures are implemented. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 266 Irrigated Strong decrease Low Autumn/spring Late May/late June Good FARAH PROVINCE Opium poppy cultivation remained stable in 2008 (15,010 ha) compared to 2007 (14,865 ha). In 2009, opium cultivation is expected to decrease in all the opium growing districts namely Gulistan, Bakwa, Pusht Rod, Bala Buluk, Farah, Khaki Safed, Pur Chaman, Qalay-I-Kah, Shib Koh, Anar Dara and Lash Wa Jauwayn. Low price of opium and the effects of the draught prevailing in 2008 are the main reason for reduced level of opium cultivation. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 15,010 Irrigated Decrease High Autumn Early May Very Poor 38

NIMROZ PROVINCE In 2008 there was a slight decrease of 5% in opium cultivation from 6,507 ha in 2007 to 6,203 ha. In 2009, opium cultivation is expected to decrease in the opium growing districts namely Khash Rod, Chahar Burja and Chakhansur. In addition to the high level of cultivation, Nimroz will probably continue to play an important role in trafficking given its location at the border with Iran and Pakistan. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 6,203 Irrigated Decrease High Autumn Mid-April Very Poor GHOR PROVINCE Ghor province was poppy-free in 2008. The trend in 2009 is uncertain because the poppy cultivation in rain-fed areas will start only in the spring. Ghor is one of the main opium-trafficking provinces. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 0 Irrigated Uncertain (Likely to be poppy free) Insignificant Spring Late June Poor BADGHIS PROVINCE In 2008 there was a strong decrease in opium poppy cultivation (86%) compared to 2007 in Badghis province. In 2009 a further decrease is expected in the districts of Ghormach, Qadis, Murghab, Jawand, Ab Kamari and Muqur. Cultivation in 2008 (hectares) 587 Irrigated and rain-fed Decrease Low Spring Mid-June Very poor 39

3. METHODOLOGY The Winter Opium Rapid Assessment, including training and deployment, was conducted from 10 December 2008 to 10 January 2008 by 82 local field surveyors. The survey was jointly planned and implemented by the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics (MCN) of the Government of Afghanisthan and UNODC. Sampling framework A total of 492 villages in 265 districts were selected across all provinces, however only 484 villages could be surveyed. Opium cultivation is most widespread in the areas with altitudes below 1,500 m. Opium poppy cultivation is also common in the higher elevations between 1,500 m to 2,500 m however it becomes rare in the areas above 2500 m. As opium cultivation is affected by elevation, a stratified sampling method was used to select the sample villages. The villages in the sampling frame were divided into three groups (strata) according to their elevation: Group 1: Villages located at an elevation of less than 1,500 m Group 2: Villages located at elevations between 1,500 m and 2,500 m Group 3: Villages located at an elevation of more than 2,500 m (not considered in sampling frame) Villages were selected from each group using a systematic random selection technique. The total sampling ratio was 1.6 per cent. The design and size of the sample facilitate the establishment of cultivation trends; the sample is not designed for calculating quantitative areas or production estimates. In addition to the sample villages, the surveyors, using their knowledge of the local situation, visited other areas in the province to complement their assessment both of opium poppy cultivation trends and the security situation throughout the province. Training of surveyors and data collection The surveyors were selected on the basis of a written test, their experience in conducting opium poppy surveys, knowledge of local customs and their acceptance by local communities. During the training period, a total of nine survey coordinators and 82 surveyors were trained in the use of the survey form and survey techniques. The surveyors conducted structured interviews with the headmen of selected villages in all provinces. UNODC and MCN coordinators monitored the data quality and the progress of the survey closely. ORA training in Nangarhar province Interview of Headman in Balkh province 40