Status of Cubans Dario Moreno Inc.
Summary Cuban Americans are in the process of a secular realignment, moving away from the GOP and towards the Democrats. This realignment will likely be accelerated by the nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for President. Among the Cuban American base Trump only has 37% By comparison, Hillary Clinton is within striking range at 31% Support for the hardline policy toward Cuba no longer unifies the community as it once did for a generation (1980-2008).
Summary (2) Despite these changes, the four most prominent Miami-Dade politicians remain overwhelming popular among Cuban Americans: Tomas Regalado Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Lincoln Diaz-Balart Marco Rubio 77% favorable 74% favorable 73% favorable 72% favorable Significantly, among Cuban American voters, Senator Marco Rubio is the Cuban American that they most admire and respect. Among civic leaders Modesto Madique, the President Emeritus of Florida International University, was the Cuban American most respected and admired.
Methodology Poll was conducted April 21-23, 2016 400 likely Cuban voters who voted in at least one out of the previous five elections. Gender: 42% male, 58% Female Language: 85% Spanish, 15% English 60% arrived in the U.S. after 1980 50% are under 55 years old 21% are over 75 years old
Cuba Issue The hardline Cuban consensus is beginning to breakdown. The Cuban community has become extremely divided over the direction of Cuban policy 41% of Cuban Americans support the re-establishment of diplomatic ties between the U.S. and Cuba while 52% oppose it. Young Cubans (18-35) support diplomatic recognition 61% to 35%. Older Cubans (over 75) oppose it 30% to 64%. Newly arrived Cubans (after 92) support the policy 59% to 30%. While more established Cubans (before 1980) oppose the policy 21% to 71%.
Re-establishing U.S. Cuban Ties Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly Oppose Overall 23% 18% 12% 40% Democrats 57% 18% 7% 11% GOP 13% 17% 15% 49% NPA 23% 21% 6% 40% 18-35 25% 36% 5% 30% 36-54 29% 18% 12% 42% 55-65 31% 10% 22% 23% 66-75 15% 7% 12% 59% Over 75 13% 17% 10% 54% Arrive before 1980 13% 8% 16% 55% Arrive after 1992 36% 23% 6% 24%
Carnival Issue Nearly half of the Cuban electorate (49%) supported the Mayor Gimenez s stance regarding Carnival Cruise Line s discrimination against Cuban-Americans, while 30% opposed the mayor s action. Most of the opposition was among those that oppose any relationship with Cuba. Overall, the mayor s position against discrimination by Carnival strengthened him among Cuban Americans
Presidential Race Trump has only 37% support among likely Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County. This is the lowest in history that any potential Republican candidate polls among this traditionally loyal demographic. Hillary Clinton is at 31% Younger Cubans and those who arrived in the United States recently (after 1992) are the most likely to abandon the GOP.
Presidential Race: 2016 Clinton Trump Not Vote Undecided Overall 31% 37% 9% 23% Democrats 77% 7% 1% 15% GOP 18% 48% 11% 23% NPA 32% 29% 9% 29% 18-35 41% 34% 4% 21% 36-54 35% 39% 7% 19% 55-65 33% 28% 18% 22% 66-75 22% 46% 8% 25% Over 75 24% 36% 12% 29% Arrive before 1980 16% 48% 9% 27% Arrive after 1992 47% 27% 6% 20%
Name Recognition Despite their rejection of Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, local republicans are still extremely popular among Cuban American in Miami Dade County Tomas Regalado Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Lincoln Diaz-Balart Marco Rubio Carlos Gimenez 77% favorable 74% favorable 73% favorable 72% favorable 59% favorable
Name Recognition (2) Local politicians and celebrities such as Emilio and Gloria Estefan are viewed far more favorably by their fellow Cuban Americans than businessmen and educators. The poll also tested a group of Cuban Americans that were recently proclaimed as legends in 2013 by Miami Today, the weekly newspaper. The businessmen tested (Armando Codina, Joe Arriola, Carlos Saladrigas, Paul Cejas, Jorge Perez and Adolfo Henriques) scored lower when compared to elected officials.
Name Recognition: Overall + Unfavorable Unfavorable Don t Know Regalado 35% 43% 78% 7% 5% 12% Estefans 34% 41% 75% 7% 5% 13% Ros- Lehtinen 38% 36% 74% 8% 8% 11% Diaz-Balart 35% 38% 73% 9% 8% 11% Rubio 42% 30% 72% 11% 11% 7% Gimenez 14% 45% 59% 12% 7% 23%
Name Recognition: Overall + Unfavorable Unfavorable Don t Know Padron 11% 13% 24% 2% 2% 71% Maidique 10% 13% 23% 3% 2% 72% Codina 4% 10% 14% 2% 3% 75% Arriola 2% 9% 11% 5% 9% 75% Saladrigas 2% 5% 7% 5% 9% 79% Henriques 2% 3% 5% 1% 1% 93%
Educators The two most prominent Cuban American educators, Modesto Maidique and Eduardo Padron, did significantly better than all the Cuban American businessmen. Modesto Maidique, the President Emeritus of Florida International University and Eduardo Padron, the President of Miami-Dade College were the most admired after the local politicians and the Estefans. Maidique is relatively well know among Cubans born in the U.S. and those between 18-35 who may have attended FIU, though he retired as president in 2009. Padron is better known among older Cuban Americans because of his long years of services to the community.
Name Recognition: Modesto Maidique + Unfavorable Unfavorable Don t Know Overall 10% 13% 23% 3% 2% 72% 18-35 11% 7% 18% 2% 4% 77% 36-54 8% 14% 22% 2% 2% 74% 55-65 8% 20% 28% 4% 2% 67% 66-75 12% 12% 24% 5% 1% 69% Over 75 12% 10% 22% 4% 2% 73% Born in US 12% 19% 31% 5% 7% 57%
Name Recognition: Eduardo Padron + Unfavorable Unfavorable Don t Know Overall 10% 13% 23% 3% 2% 72% 18-35 7% 4% 11% 2% NA 88% 36-54 12% 13% 25% 1% 1% 74% 55-65 10% 14% 24% 4% 73% 66-75 9% 19% 28% 5% 3% 65% Over 75 14% 17% 31% 4% 4% 62% U.S. Born 2% 10% 12% 7% 2% 72%
Open Ended Cuban American voters also favored local politicians and celebrities like the Estefans over other prominent Cuban Americans. Again, the most admired and respected tended to be the local politicians and the Estefans. None of the businessmen had any significant support. While Maidique and Padron scored in the low single digits, they followed the politicians as the most respected and admired Cuban Americans.
Open Ended First Second Total Marco Rubio 16.5% 5.6% 22% Lincoln Diaz-Balart 10.6% 6.6% 17% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 7.3% 7.6% 14.9% Estefans 8.4% 3.5% 11.9% Tomas Regalado 2.3% 3.3% 5.6% Ted Cruz 1.8% 2.5% 4.3% Carlos Gimenez 1.3% 1.5% 2.8% Andy Garcia 1.5%.5% 2% Modesto Maidique 1.0%.7% 1.7% Carlos Curberlo.8%.5% 1.3% Ed Padron.5%.5% Armando Codina.5%.5%
Most Admired and Respected Cuban American Clearly Marco Rubio is the most admired and respected Cuban American. He is followed by two long time congressman (Diaz Balart and Ros- Lehtinen). The Estefans were the only non-politicians among the top five most admired and respected. Maidique and Padron again were more admired and respected than the Cuban American businessmen.
Score: Politicians and Celebrities Name Recognition score Open ended score Score Marco Rubio 50 66 116 Lincoln Diaz-Balart 56 51 107 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 58 44.7 102.7 Estefans 63 35.7 98.7 Tomas Regalado 66 11.2 77.2 Carlos Gimenez 44 8.4 52.4
Score: Civil Leaders Name Recognition score Open ended score Score Modesto Maidique 18 5.1 23.1 Eduardo Padron 20 2 22 Armando Codina 9 2 11 All others below 5