United Nations International Drug Control Programme Country Office for Afghanistan

United Nations International Drug Control Programme Country Office for Afghanistan Afghanistan Preliminary Findings for the Opium Ground Survey of Northern Provinces May 2002 Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme Monitoring of Opium Production in Afghanistan

Table of Contents 1 - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 3 2 - BACKGROUND... 4 3 - METHODOLOGY... 5 4 - FINDINGS... 7 4.1 AREAS UNDER POPPY CULTIVATION... 7 4.2 YIELD... 10 4.3 PRICES... 11 5 - ANNEXES... 12

1 - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background The pre-assessment survey conducted by UNDCP in southern and eastern Afghanistan in February 2002 confirmed a major resurgence in opium poppy cultivation in that country on an estimated 45,000 to 65,000 hectares. The northern region of Afghanistan was not included in the pre-assessment survey because the colder climate in that area usually delays the opium poppy planting season. As part of the full survey launched in March, a ground sample survey of the northern region of the country was implemented in May 2002, before the announced start of the eradication campaign in that region. Findings of this survey are presented in this brief report. Findings The total area under opium poppy cultivation in Northern Afghanistan in 2002 has increased by 47 %, from 6,640 hectares in 2001, to 9,750 ha in May 2002 (provinces of Badakhshan, Badghis, Baglan, Balkh, Farayab, Jawzjan, Kunduz, Samangan and Takhar). Unlike in the previous two years, climatic conditions were reported as favorable by the farmers. The resulting potential opium production could reach 240 metric tons. In Badakhshan, the highest cultivating province in the Northern region, the increase in the area under opium poppy cultivation amounts to 31 %, from 6,300 hectares in 2001, to 8,400 hectares in May 2002. Remark The present report briefly describes the methodology, observations and findings of the Ground Survey of Northern Provinces. Since it is only a component of a wider integrated national opium survey, the findings should be treated as preliminary, with the results being confirmed and augmented by subsequent data collection and from consolidation with other survey components. 3

2 - BACKGROUND In early February 2002, UNDCP carried out a pre-assessment survey in southern and eastern Afghanistan to verify anecdotal evidence of the resurgence of opium poppy cultivation and to forecast its likely extent in 2002 (see Afghanistan Opium Poppy Survey 2002 Pre-Assessment Report, UNDCP, February 2002.) The northern region of Afghanistan was not included in the pre-assessment survey because the colder climate in that area usually delays the opium poppy planting season. The preassessment survey confirmed a major resurgence in opium poppy cultivation on an estimated 45,000 to 65,000 hectares. Subsequently the comprehensive annual survey started in March 2002. The evolution of the security situation on the ground lead to a change in the methodology traditionally used by UNDCP in Afghanistan (full census). As part of this revised approach, a ground sample survey of the northern region of the country, including the provinces of Badakhshan, Badghis, Baglan, Balkh, Farayab, Jawzjan, Kunduz, Samangan and Takhar, was launched in May 2002, before the announced start of the eradication campaign in that region. The following report briefly describes the methodology, and findings of the Ground Survey of Northern Provinces component of the integrated 2002 National Opium Survey. It should be noted that since the ground survey is only a component of a wider integrated national opium survey, the findings should be treated as preliminary, with the results being confirmed and augmented by subsequent data collection and from consolidation with other survey components. 4

3 - METHODOLOGY The Opium Ground Survey of Northern Provinces was conducted between 6 th and 28 th May, 2002 in 171 villages of 48 districts of 9 provinces of north-western and northeastern Afghanistan (see Table 1). A total of 22 Surveyors were involved in the village surveys. Table 1 - Number of villages and districts surveyed in each province. Region Provinces No. of Districts Surveyed No. of Villages Surveyed North-East Region Badakhshan 5 49 Takhar 10 18 North-West Region Badghis 2 8 Balghlan 4 17 Balkh 6 19 Farayab 5 9 Jawzjan 8 29 Kunduz 5 16 Samangan 3 6 48 171 The survey used a stratified sample with systematic selection methodology. In brief, 2000 data were examined to determine the villages in a given district that grew opium poppy. These villages were then classified as high level or low level opium producers in terms of area under cultivation. The threshold for this classification was determined by examining the mean of village areas under poppy cultivation in each district. A minimum of 14% of the opium growing villages were then systematically selected from each strata in the district. These villages were selected so as to ensure an even distribution throughout different areas within the district. Surveyors (one per district, many with previous opium survey experience) were trained. They visited each village in turn completing questionnaires. Surveyors made their own estimations and observations by counting the number of fields under poppy cultivation and estimating average field sizes. Interviews were also carried out with village headmen, religious leaders, elders, persons of influence (school teachers, medics etc.) and individual farmers. Information was collected on: village demography; land tenure conditions; total agricultural area; total area under poppy cultivation (irrigated and rainfed); total area under wheat cultivation (irrigated and rainfed); yields of poppy and wheat (irrigated and cultivated); information on damaged or eradicated crops; prices of fresh and dry opium and wheat; local exchange rates. 5

Two Survey Monitors were also deployed in the field to train and supervise surveyors to ensure a high quality of execution. Further to this an International Survey Supervision Consultant undertook field work to assess the survey methodology and execution, debrief the surveyors and make independent observations in order to verify the findings of the survey. The Consultant together with the National Programme Coordinator then conducted analysis of the data. Analysis of the data was carried out to determine both district level and provincial level total areas and trends in poppy cultivation, average yields in irrigated and rainfed fields and price fluctuations. Statistical techniques were also used to determine the ranges of and confidence in the survey results. 6

4 - FINDINGS 4.1 AREAS UNDER POPPY CULTIVATION The survey findings show that the area under cultivation of poppy has increased in all provinces since 2001. The comparisons between 2001 and 2002 for Badakhshan are significant because in 2001 in this province there was no attenuation in opium poppy cultivation, contrary to what was observed elsewhere in the country. Table 2 shows the comparative changes in areas under poppy cultivation between 2000 and 2002. Figure 2 shows the distribution and intensity of opium cultivation areas throughout the northern provinces. Table 2 Area under opium poppy cultivation in Northern Afghanistan 2000-02 Province Area (Ha) Area (Ha) Area (Ha) % change % change 2000 2001 2002 2000-2002 2001-2002 Badakhshan 2,458 6,342 8,325 +239% +31% Takhar 647 211 788 +22% +273% Badghis 41 0 26-36% Baghlan 199 82 151-24% +84% Balkh 2,669 4 217-92% +5,325% Farayab 36 0 28-23% Jawzjan 746 0 193-74% Kunduz 489 0 16-97% Samangan 54 0 n/a Total 7,339 6,639 9,744 +33% +47% 7

Figure 1 Map Showing the Distribution and Intensity of Opium Cultivation in the Northern Provinces, Afghanistan. 8

4.1.1 BADAKHSHAN AND TAKHAR The three districts of Faizabad, Jurm and Keshem account for 96% of the area under cultivation in Badakhshan and 82% of all the northern provinces. Considerable increases have been observed since 2001 in Faizabad and Keshem, with a slight decrease of 7% in Jurm. The sustained increases in area under poppy cultivation in Badakhshan, and resurgence in Takhar seems to be due to: the continuing high demand and high prices for opium. favourable climatic conditions in the autumn encouraging late planting in the spring to take advantage of the high yields anticipated in rain-fed fields, leading to a proportional increase in rain-fed cultivation; reports of eradication and compensation in southern provinces encouraging farmers to plant extremely late and on spare or unproductive ground. With no real intention of a harvest, farmers seek to qualify for compensation payments, leading to a further increase in rain-fed cultivation. Poppy at all stages of the growth cycle were observed during the survey in these districts. 4.1.2 BALKH AND JAWZJAN Significant reductions have been observed this year from 2000 estimates in Balkh and Jawzjan, with decreases of 92% and 74% respectively. There has been little or no resurgence in poppy cultivation in almost all districts in these provinces. Of particular note is Chemtal district in Balkh, which in 2000, had a poppy cultivated area of 2,451Ha, reduced to 0Ha in 2001 and returned to only 153Ha in 2002. The primary reasons for this sustained low cultivation are: Most of the communities in the poppy growing districts were new returnees and due to continuing conflict between rival factions and drought it was not possible to cultivate most of the agricultural land; Announcement of the new decree regarding the opium ban by the Interim Administration; 4.1.3 SAMANGAN AND BAGHLAN In Samangan and Baghlan, there was report of intensification of opium poppy cultivation, especially in the districts of Anderab (Baghlan) and Dara-e-Souf (Samangan). Due to surveyors confusion on the villages to be surveyed, it was decided to re-conduct the survey in Samangan province in June. The results will be included in the final survey report in September. 9

4.1.4 KUNDUZ Considerable reductions in poppy cultivation in Kunduz have been observed since 2000. Farmer interviews indicate that this is largely due to them being unable to cultivate their agricultural land because of conflict in the area between Taliban and US Northern Alliance forces up until January 2002. 4.1.5 ERADICATION AND COMPENSATION PROGRAMME While many farmers have heard news of the Opium Poppy Cultivation Ban by the Interim Authorities and the eradication and compensation measures in the south of the country, at the time of survey no such activities had taken place in the northern provinces. The perception of these measures seems, however, to have had impacts on levels of cultivation. In the North-west farmers seem to be taking the ban seriously and are reluctant to return to poppy cultivation, while in the North-east farmers seem to be taking advantage of the possible compensation scheme by planting more areas with poppy. 4.2 YIELD Yield, and hence production, estimates were made based on average yields in each of the provinces in 2000, 2001 and anticipated yields in 2002, since harvest had not yet occurred at the time of the survey. For provinces where there was insufficient previous data, the average for the northern provinces was substituted. It must be pointed out however that both 2000 and 2001 were considered drought years, while in 2002 climatic conditions have been considered, by farmers, as very favourable for poppy cultivation, especially with regard to rainfed areas, with high rainfall and conducive temperatures. Anticipated yield estimates were collected from farmers during this survey and in some cases, such as Badakhshan, these farmers anticipated as much as double the yield in rainfed fields. It is planned to collect post-harvest yield data that will provide more accurate estimates for the levels of production in the Northern Provinces of Afghanistan for 2002. The estimated production for the whole northern region covered by the survey is therefore 239,340 kg, with indications that farmers are anticipating (possibly optimistically) as much as 350,000kg. 10

4.3 PRICES Table 3 - Dry Opium Farmgate Prices in the Northern Provinces Province Expected Farmgate Price for Dry Opium US$/Kg Badakhshan $240 Takhar $215 Badghis $605 Balghlan $312 Balkh $178 Farayab $338 Jawzjan $100 Kunduz $248 Samangan - The farmgate prices received by farmers for Dry Opium this year remains high in most provinces. Very high prices were observed in Badghis and Farayab were $605 and $338 per Kg respectively were expected. These prices are likely to be due to several factors: very good access to international markets (3 market points on the Turkmenistan border); often no middleman or trader is needed between farmer and market, since farmers will often take their own produce to be sold in Turkmenistan; high opium demand along the Turkmenistan border, since the provinces of Badghis, Farayab and Balkh are all producing very little opium; Baghlan farmers are expecting $300 per Kg this year for their Dry Opium product. Baghlan is fast becoming a market crossroads, with Anderab becoming a market centre. Smugglers are very active in the province moving across it from production areas to market areas. These smugglers have been reported to be buying up Dry Opium from farmers on their way through to the market centres of Badakhshan and Takhar. Low prices have been reported in Balkh and Jawzjan of approximately $178 and $100 per Kg expected respectively. There seems to be very poor access to markets in these provinces. It is a very long way to the Takhar markets, the Uzbekistan border is heavily patrolled and very strict. The Chief Commander of the province takes a very hard line against opium production and trafficking, with the markets at Pashma Qala in Chemtal and Char Bulaq completely closed down. Kunduz prices remain high at $245 due to good access to both the Takhar and the international markets of Tajikistan. Supplementary data on the price of fresh opium will be collected over the next 2 months along with yield data to provide a post-harvest picture of the situation in northern province. 11

Appendix 1A Opium Poppy Cultivation 1994 2002 (hectares) PROVINCE DISTRICT 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2,000 2,001 Estimated Area 2002 Estimated Minimum Area 2002 Estimated Maximum Area 2002 % Change from 2000 % Change from 2001 BADAKHSHAN BAHARAK 111 64 116 9 202 23 86 345 177 171 183 106.00% -48.60% ESHKASHEM 0 0 3 0 0 0 - - FAIZABAD 77 2,344 1,592 1,634 1,282 906 1,073 868 2,427 2,422 2,431 126.10% 179.60% JURM 433 555 1,326 1,051 1,198 1,249 773 2,897 2,695 2,682 2,709 248.70% -7.00% KESHEM 1,093 3 177 62 62 385 507 2,191 2,854 2,831 2,877 462.90% 30.30% KHVAHAN RAGH 0 0 8 31 2 8 - - SHAHR-E-BOZORG 0 0 0 0 71 113 19 41 172 161 182 802.80% 318.40% ZEBAK 0 8 8 115 0 0 - Sub-Total 1,714 2,970 3,230 2,902 2,817 2,684 2,458 6,342 8,325 8,267 8,382 238.70% 31.30% BADGHIS GHOWRMACH 20-4 3 5-80.00% MORGHAB 21-22 21 23 6.20% Sub-Total 41-26 25 28-35.90%! BAGHLAN ANDERAB 81 31 30 31 - -62.10% BAGHLAN 152-120 115 124-21.40% - DAHANEH-E-GHOWRI 328 929 967 27 - - - - -100.00% - NAHRIN 1 PUL-E-KHUMRI 38 20-1 1 2-93.80% - Sub-Total 328 929 1,005 199 82 151 146 157-23.90% 84.60% BALKH BALKH 13 29 29 82 1 22 21 23-73.20% - CHAR BULAQ 165 530 2,600 53 - - - - -100.00% - CHEMTAL 1,065 532 485 1,428 2,451-153 152 154-93.80% - DEHDADI 22-8 7 8-64.50% - DOWLATABAD 3 NAHER SHAHI 33-14 14 15-56.70% - SHULGARAH 28-19 19 20-31.00% - Sub-Total 1,065 710 1,044 4,057 2,669 4 217 214 219-91.90% - FARYAB BELCHERAGH 6-26 19 33 337.50% - MEYMANEH 1 - - - - -100.00% - PASHTUN KOWT 11-1 1 2-87.30% - QEYSAR 16 - - - - -100.00% - SHIRIN TAGAB 3 - - - - -100.00% - Sub-Total 36-28 20 35-23.20% JAWZJAN AQCHAH 532 208-47 46 47-77.50% - FAIZABAD 43 105-24 23 25-77.40% - KHAMYAB 6-30 29 31 398.30% - MANGA JEK 1,789 141-7 7 7-94.90% - MARDIAN 43 111-4 4 4-96.60% - QARQIN 186 10-24 24 24 140.00% - SAR-E POL 146-57 57 57-61.00% - SHBERGHAN 19-1 1 1-95.50% - Sub-Total 2,593 746-193 190 197-74.10% - KUNDUZ ALIABAD 5 51-3 2 3-95.00% - CHAHAR DARREH 8 30-6 6 7-79.70% - EMAM SAHEB 3 - KHANABAD 2 36 - - - - -100.00% - KUNDUZ 9 51-3 3 3-93.80% - QALA-E-ZAL 11 321-5 4 5-98.60% - Sub-Total 38 489-16 15 17-96.70% - SAMANGAN DARAE SOUF KHURAM O SARBAGH Sub-Total 54 - TAKHAR BANGI 8 - CHAH AB 17 45 19 CHAL 8 17 20 ESHKAMESH 10 19 FARKHAR 6 6 26 KALAFGAN 101 93 27 Province Level Analysis KHVAJEH GHAR 9 57 32 ROSTAQ 10 151 24 TALOQAN 16 97 16 WARSAJ 12 9 10 YANGI QALA 22 154 20 Sub-Total 201 647 211 788 782 794 21.70% 273.20% Total for Northern Provinves 7,339 6,639 9,744 9,659 9,828 21.70% 273.20% 12

PROVINCE DISTRICT Annex 1B District Production Data Poppy Area under Irrigation 2002 (Ha) Poppy Area under Rain-fed 2002 (Ha) Averaged Yield for Irrigated Poppy (Kg/Ha) Averaged Yield for Rain-fed Poppy (Kg/Ha) Estimated Production 2002 (Kg of Fresh Opium) BADAKHSHAN BAHARAK 177.2 0 5,483 ESHKASHEM FAIZABAD 436.4 1,990.00 54,976 JURM 2,459.30 236.1 81,012 KESHEM 182.4 2,671.60 61,319 KHVAHAN RAGH SHAHR-E-BOZORG 6.2 165.3 3,637 ZEBAK Sub-Total 3,261.50 5,063.10 30.94 20.84 206,427 BADGHIS GHOWRMACH 0 4 66 MORGHAB 17.9 4.4 563 Sub-Total 17.9 8.4 27.37 16.43 628 BAGHLAN ANDERAB 8 22.7 592 BAGHLAN 8 111.5 2,050 DAHANEH-E-GHOWRI 0 0 0 NAHRIN 0 PUL-E-KHUMRI 1.3 0 34 Sub-Total 17.2 134.2 27.37 16.43 2,676 BALKH BALKH 22 0 513 CHAR BULAQ 0 0 0 CHEMTAL 152 1 3,557 DEHDADI 7.8 0 182 DOWLATABAD 0 NAHER SHAHI 14.3 0 334 SHULGARAH 19.3 0 451 Sub-Total 215.5 1 23.32 10.66 5,037 FARYAB BELCHERAGH 2.3 24 456 MEYMANEH 0 0 0 PASHTUN KOWT 1.4 0 38 QEYSAR 0 SHIRIN TAGAB 0 Sub-Total 3.7 24 27.37 16.43 494 JAWZJAN AQCHAH 46.8 0 1,280 FAIZABAD 23.7 0 649 KHAMYAB 29.9 0 818 MANGA JEK 7.2 0 197 MARDIAN 3.8 0 103 QARQIN 24 0 657 SAR-E POL 57 0 1,560 SHBERGHAN 0.9 0 23 Sub-Total 193.2 0 27.37 16.43 5,287 KUNDUZ ALIABAD 2.6 0 70 CHAHAR DARREH 6.1 0 167 EMAM SAHEB 0 KHANABAD 0 0 0 KUNDUZ 3.2 0 86 QALA-E-ZAL 4.5 0 123 Sub-Total 16.3 0 27.37 16.43 446 SAMANGAN DARAE SOUF KHURAM O SARBAGH Sub-Total TAKHAR BANGI CHAH AB CHAL ESHKAMESH FARKHAR Province Level Analysis KALAFGAN KHVAJEH GHAR ROSTAQ TALOQAN WARSAJ YANGI QALA Sub-Total 520.4 267.1 27.36 15.38 18,344 Total For Northern Provinces 239,340 13