Decision Making During Disasters and Emergencies: Research Findings and Applications to Enhance Performance

Transcription

1 Decision Making During Disasters and Emergencies: Research Findings and Applications to Enhance Performance Robert C. Chandler, Ph.D. Director Nicholson School of Communication College of Sciences UCF This session reviews recent behavioral & psychometric scientific theories and research findings that identify challenges and problems with decision making during disasters and emergencies, including the physiological,,py psychological, and cognitive diminishment which occurs during peak periods of a crisis situation. In addition, the session focuses on how to anticipate and mitigate these barriers to quality decision making and a number of applications for improving decision making quality during disasters and emergencies.

2 Human Factor Errors and Disasters Human factor errors including diminished cognitive performance and poor decision making in critical situations (FAA Study) 66% of air carrier accidents 79% fatal commuter accidents 88% fatal General Aviation accidents Human factors errors can be costly in surgical operating rooms, emergency response, EOC/Command Centers, disaster management teams, military/law enforcement, and other crisis contexts Diminished Cognitive Capacities During emergencies and disasters, decisions must typically be made unexpectedly with little advance notice, high stress/distress context, little time for thorough deliberation, and often with high (life and death) negative consequence risks. In addition, fatigue, distraction, uncertainty, anxiety, time stress, and other dimensions of a crisis context can impede decision quality and present challenges to coherent ( rational ) decision making. Typically long periods of boredom are interrupted by brief moments of hyperstress.

3 Basic Facts about Crisis Stress Effects of Stress are Cumulative Effects of Stress are Interactive Uncertainty amplifies Stress Effects New Experiences/Situations amplifies Stress Effects Tasks and Deciding themselves may be stressful Stress affects different people differently Individuals have different levels of stress hardiness or stress affect resilience Stress symptoms manifest both behaviorally and cognitively Major Cognitive Variables that Impact Decision i Making Mki Performance during Disasters, Emergencies, and Crisis Events Hyperstress CCS SRT Concentration INE DLR SDM ITP Time Stress Fatique Hypostress

4 CCS Cognitive Capacity Sufficiency Although the human brain has tremendous potential cognitive capacity Psychometric researchers assume that each individual has baseline use and peak use cognitive capacities and that there is a sufficiency threshold for effective decision making Complex Critical Events can tax (over tax) these capacities Variables Cognitive preparatory activities Precomputations Past experience based mental processes Learned decision making and problem solving CCS Cognitive Capacity Sufficiency Research on decision making in complex systems provides insight i into the factors that negatively impact successful cognitive performance and decision making. Maximum Adaptability Model Compensatory Control Model Rather than making mathematical or computer like calculations human decision makers decide using their mental abilities, learned processes (from prior experiences) and within the context of a myriad of perceived external constraints and variables

5 Decision Making in Critical Contexts When there is little time, little information, i substantial time constraints, and with high negative consequences for the decisions these external factors affect (impact) the internal mental processes of decision making. SRT Simple Reaction Time SRT Hyperstress induced Simple Reaction Time Changes Tendency for cognitive delay (freeze) Increases in time required for decisions, response, behavior performance SRT linear correlation with Hyperstress SRT has most dramatic impact on more complex tasks

6 Concentration (Mental Effort) Hyperstress negatively impacts one s abilty to concentrate on the decision or task. Both cognitive processing and cognitive control are impacted by hyperstress Affective (emotional) )processes can also diminish ability for sustained attention to a task or decision (wandering minds) Personally high salience and valence emotional considerations decrease the ability to concentrate on the task or decision INE Intense Negative Emotions IntenseNegative Emotionscan diminish cognitive efficiency Distracting Reduces Focus Changes processing pathways Disrupts goal oriented behavior Less optimal for task completion Psychosomatic symptoms arise Disrupt sleep and sleep cycle TSD PTSD

7 DLR Diminished Logical Reasoning Hyperstress induced Diminished Logical Reasoning (DLR) Information manipulation tasks or Logical Reasoning tasks are diminished by Hyperstress Delayed processing ( increases in time and effort) affect the quality of cognitive processes These diminished processes appear to most effect cognitive performance in situations which require rapid decisions or when the individual attempts to achieve their low stress (typical) response times (increases in frustration and more stress. SDM Stress Diminished Memory Stress Diminished Memory and Information Recall Hyperstress Diminished Memory and Information Recall Ability Effects

8 ITP Implicit Temporal Processing Compressed time frames for decisions independently impact the quality of decisions and our perception of time itself. Perceptions of time affect our abilities for pattern recognition, time dependent decision making, awareness of synchronized processes, and decision priorities. iti Hyperstress negatively impacts our ITP and diminished ITP negatively impacts our ability for making decisions Significant negative affect on multitasking performance. Time Stress independently negatively impacts decision quality and cognitive performance. Time Stress Requiring tasks and decisions to be completed with short and finite time windows (with penalties or negative consequences for failing to meet the fixed critical deadline). The inverse speed accuracy tradeoff Diminished measures of mental workload capacity correlated with Time Stress

9 Physical and emotional exhaustion negatively impacts decision quality and cognitive performance. Fatigue Fatigue negatively impacts our effort for decisions, motivation, our capability for deciding, and willingness to exert effort and energy to decisions. This leads to diminished cognitive performance and lower quality decisions Is documented source of human errors in military, aircraft, complex systems operation. Physical Discomfort Heat Cold Hunger Cramped environment Poor Nutrition Noise Sleep Deprivation/Sleep Cycle Disruptions Threat Fear

10 Reduces Information Sharing Distorts team communication Creates tension and conflict Higher ambiguity of decision goals Less commitment to decisions Failure to correct interpret procedures Increased Workload Group decisions require more time/effort Control lissues Decreased diligence (sloppy) Group Think (loss of critical reflection) Diminished Team Work Hypostress (Boredom) Hypostress: research studies confirm that it adversely affects cognitive performance Even small levels of hypostress have been shown to affect one s ability to give attention (focus) to simple tasks

11 Effective Decision Making In These Conditions In real world crisis and emergency contexts, at peak periods of hyperstress; decision makers are not usually capable (less or more so depending on the individual) of framing tasks in logical ways taking into account all of the available information and situational variables and establish comparable (logical) alternatives to evaluate and from which to chose a decision. Rather, they more typically assess of the dynamics of a situation which they recognize from previous experience and using their past experience and any crisis decision training act( decide ) by imagining event trajectories of a given decision/action (results and implications) contextualized (compared with) how they believe a situation is likely to evolve. Effective decision makers tend to rely more on their problem solving tendencies based on past experiences to blend a solution since the logical and rational processes of traditional cognitive decision making are frequently disrupted. Five Quick Recommendations 1. Select the right people (assess, screen and test for KSAs for cognitive processing and decision making under hyperstress conditions. 2. Provide extensive training and preparation for problem solving in hyperstress contexts. 3. Teach the right stuff. Include specific training for stress management, coping skills, teach methods to stay calm so as to act with poise and capability to make decisions in stressful conditions. 4. Ensure realistic training to help create level of stress inoculation this is a major shortcoming in most training, mocks, drills, and exercises. 5. Minimize traumatic hyperstress exposure and conditions as much as possible de stress the environment, processes, and context as much as feasible.

12 Crisis Communication Resources by Robert C. Chandler, Ph.D. Surviving the Pandemic: A Communication i Guide for Media Relations Crisis Communication Planning Business Pandemics: Business Continuity Planning Priorities for the Coming Outbreak Disaster Recovery and the News Media Managing Risks for Corporate Integrity: How to Avoid an Ethical Misconduct Disaster. Available from Amazon.com and other on line booksellers

13 Robert C. Chandler, Ph.D. Director Nicholson School of Communication University of Central Florida P.O. Box Orlando, FL Telephone (407) FAX (407) Questions? The 2012 International Crisis & Risk Communication Conference: Cultivating Trust in Uncertain Times will bring together leaders, researchers, and experts from private industry, government and the academy to facilitate an international dialogue about how Dr. Chandler is Director of the Nicholson School of Communication at the d th d t f ilit t i t ti ldi l b th University of Central we can collectively understand, adapt and respond to the Florida. He can help with significant crisis communication challenges we face in the wake of assessment and growing skepticism, suspicion and erosion of public trust. It is clear development or provide that trust and trustworthiness lies at the heart of successful and ethical crisis and risk communication. on site presentations, seminars, educational training or other consultative services International Crisis and Risk Communication Conference Hosted by UCF in Orlando, FL March