MPO Quarterly Meeting System Performance Measures March 14, 2018

Transcription

1 MPO Quarterly Meeting System Performance Measures March 14, 2018 Mena Lockwood, VDOT Traffic Engineering Division

2 23 CFR Part 490 Summary National Performance Management Measures Subpart A: General Information Subpart B: Measures for Highway Safety Improvement Program Subpart C: Measures to Assess Pavement Condition Subpart D: Measures to Assess Bridge Condition Subpart E: Measures to Assess Performance of the NHS Subpart F: Measure to Assess Freight Movement on the Interstates Subpart G: Measures to Assess CMAQ Program Traffic Congestion Subpart H: Measure to Assess CMAQ Program On-Road Mobile Source Emissions 2

3 Outline Baseline 2017 metrics Challenges Target setting methodology Limitations, Assumptions, Tweaking Next Steps 3

4 NHS Travel Time Reliability Measure 2017 Baseline DRAFT Virginia MPOs LOTTR Reliable Percentage Interstate Non-Interstate Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Montgomery Area MPO Bristol MPO Central Virginia MPO 93.0 Charlottesville-Albemarle MPO Danville MPO 98.7 Fredericksburg Area MPO Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization Harrisonburg-Rockingham MPO Kingsport MTPO 99.0 National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Richmond Area MPO Roanoke Valley MPO Staunton-Augusta-Waynesboro MPO Tri Cities Area MPO Winchester-Frederick County MPO Non-MPO Grand Total Calculated internally by VDOT staff with 2017 INRIX NPMRDS PMT used 1.54 vehicle occupancy factors from 2009; 2017 numbers are not yet available MPOs w/o Interstate mileage have blanks in the Interstate LOTTR 5

5 Freight Reliability Measure 2017 DRAFT Virginia MPOs TTTR Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Montgomery Area MPO 1.09 Bristol MPO 1.13 Charlottesville-Albemarle MPO 1.13 Fredericksburg Area MPO 2.67 Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization 2.01 Harrisonburg-Rockingham MPO 1.06 National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board 3.08 Richmond Area MPO 1.42 Roanoke Valley MPO 1.21 Staunton-Augusta-Waynesboro MPO 1.11 Tri Cities Area MPO 1.13 Winchester-Frederick County MPO 1.09 Grand Total 1.80 Calculated by VDOT staff with 2017 INRIX NPMRDS MPOs w/o Interstate mileage are not listed 7

6 Challenges Data Quality - Gaps on low-volume or off peak times (overnight) - As data quality increases over time, measures will change Measures - Both 80th, 95th & 50th TT change over time - Binary threshold can hide/misrepresent progress; changes can occur quicker than reality - Max TTTR doesn t give credit for changes to other 4 epochs Target Setting - Road network and data differences between Phas1 and 2 NPMRDS - We currently have 1 years of consistent data not yet enough for trend setting - What are the influencing factors / How sensitive? - What moves the needle? 8

7 TARGET SETTING A Snap Shot of the Finish Line MPO PMT Reliable on the Interstate Bristol Blacksburg-Cburg-MontArea Central VA, Lynchburg Charlottesville-Albermarle MPO Danville MPO, Martinsville Fredericksburg Area MPO Kingsport Bristol Hampton Roads TPO Harrisonburg-Rockingham MPO National Capital Region TPB Richmond Area MPO Roanoke Valley MPO Staunton-Augusta-Waynesboro Tri-Cities Area MPO, Petersburg Winchester-Frederick County MPO Virginia State ,15,16 metrics are from RITIS using ph 1 data 9

8 An Example from Texas Transportation Institute Congestion Categories TTI Decided These Ranges Very Good 1.0 to 1.25 Good 1.25 to 1.40 Barely Good 1.40 to 1.50 Barely Bad 1.50 to 1.60 Bad 1.60 to 1.75 Very Bad over

9 Growth of Barely Good PMT INTERSTATE sample target setting method MPOLABEL 2017 Total PMT 2017 Total PMT Reliable 2017 Total PMT UnReliable Amount of Barely Good that may turn UNreliablePMT 2017 Percent of PMT Reliable GR (4yr Avg) 2018 Total PMT 2018 Total PMT Reliable 2018 Total PMT UnReliable 2018 Percent of PMT Reliable BRIS 1,562,934,215 1,557,463,426 5,470, % 3.08% 1,611,072,589 1,605,601,799 5,470, % CVIL 1,592,841,996 1,583,274,601 9,567, % 4.16% 1,659,104,223 1,649,536,828 9,567, % DAN n/a FRED 6,728,326,710 3,528,632,496 3,199,694, % 1.20% 6,809,066,630 3,609,372,416 3,199,694, % HAMP 15,105,255,706 12,979,189,146 2,126,066, ,640, % 0.88% 15,238,181,957 12,864,313,073 2,373,868, % HAR 1,296,753,537 1,289,478,466 7,275, % 2.97% 1,335,267,118 1,327,992,046 7,275, % KING 1,387,627,636 1,387,459, , % 1,387,627,636 1,387,459, , % LYN n/a NOVA 47,585,422,179 26,847,682,142 20,737,740,037 3,293,608, % 0.97% 48,047,000,774 23,983,704,134 24,063,296, % NRV 1,134,440,891 1,107,549,904 26,890, % 2.82% 1,166,432,124 1,139,541,137 26,890, % RICH 12,374,612,154 11,690,939, ,673,108 67,670, % 2.48% 12,681,502,535 11,928,480, ,021, % ROAN 2,381,772,052 2,370,600,463 11,171, % 1.37% 2,414,402,329 2,403,230,741 11,171, % TCAT 2,559,430,258 2,555,521,430 3,908, % 2.28% 2,617,785,268 2,613,876,440 3,908, % WINC 1,588,256,054 1,447,624, ,631, % 2.66% 1,630,503,665 1,489,871, ,631, % SAW 2,410,691,989 2,391,850,534 18,841, % 3.31% 2,490,485,894 2,471,644,439 18,841, % 86,448,124,470 70,969,380,245 15,478,744,224 1,589,362, % 0.79% 87,131,064,653 70,050,401,560 17,080,663, % 11

10 Growth of Barely Good PMT NON interstate sample target setting method MPOLABEL 2017 Total PMT 2017 Total PMT Reliable 2017 Total PMT UnReliable Amount of Barely Good that may turn UNreliablePMT 2017 Percent of PMT Reliable GR (4yr Avg) 2018 Total PMT 2018 Total PMT Reliable 2018 Total PMT UnReliable 2018 Percent of PMT Reliable BRIS 992,132, ,026,812 45,105,580 89,233, % -0.71% 985,088, ,382, ,705, % CVIL 1,455,232,271 1,254,628, ,603,941 96,609, % 2.25% 1,487,974,997 1,188,587, ,387, % DAN 1,148,287,016 1,135,263,139 13,023,877 56,812, % 1.53% 1,165,855,807 1,095,149,932 70,705, % FRED 2,596,658,204 2,195,241, ,417, ,913, % 1.36% 2,631,972,756 1,968,120, ,852, % HAMP 15,860,404,851 14,093,731,311 1,766,673,540 1,970,240, % 1.04% 16,025,353,062 12,267,948,673 3,757,404, % HAR 598,264, ,380,743 82,883, ,669, % 0.32% 600,178, ,232, ,946, % KING 1,658,225,512 1,626,795,495 31,430,017 88,980, % 0.99% 1,674,641,944 1,553,350, ,291, % LYN 2,943,695,809 2,735,925, ,770, ,676, % 2.08% 3,004,924,682 2,635,176, ,747, % NOVA 52,788,446,767 40,549,756,353 12,238,690,414 5,646,097, % 0.43% 53,015,437,088 35,106,371,139 17,909,065, % NRV 1,008,346, ,308, ,037,371 16,621, % 1.05% 1,018,933, ,100, ,832, % RICH 11,313,831,738 10,238,448,238 1,075,383, ,255, % 1.66% 11,501,641,345 9,429,730,393 2,071,910, % ROAN 2,518,794,748 2,275,231, ,563, ,705, % 0.33% 2,527,106,771 2,057,093, ,013, % TCAT 1,207,218, ,522, ,696, ,756, % 2.21% 1,233,898, ,273, ,624, % WINC 1,080,607, ,901, ,705, ,974, % 1.50% 1,096,816, ,591, ,224, % SAW 585,871, ,500, ,370, ,163, % 0.70% 589,972, ,809, ,162, % TOTAL 84,826,227,611 73,562,097,687 11,264,129,924 7,118,167, % 0.32% 85,097,671,539 73,810,763,480 11,286,908, % 12

11 Assumptions, Limitations, Tweaking Assumes continued growth of last 4 years Average vehicle occupancy is 1.54 Negative growth is treated as zero growth No accounting for positive changes to reliability Barely Good Interval needs refinement Not enough data to build model and test only one year 13

12 Subpart G: NPMM for Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program Traffic Congestion PHED Measure: Annual Hours of Peak Hour Excessive Delay (PHED) Per Capita Non-SOV Travel Measure: Percent of Non-Single Occupancy Vehicle (SOV) Travel Applies to Areas that meet the following: Designated Urban Areas Contains NHS mileage AND population > 1,000,000 Nonattainment or maintenance area 14

13 Annual Hours of Peak Hour Excessive Delay per Capita 2017 Virginia MPOs PHED PHED /capita National Capital Region 128,273, Used 2016 population for VA portion: 2,488,946 AVO of 1.54 assumed for all classes of vehicles Gross estimation of hourly volumes; needs refinement 15

14 % Non-SOV Travel Virginia MPOs Drove Alone Carpooled Public Transportation Walked Other Teleworked % of Non-SOV Virginia 77% 9% 4% 2% 2% 5% 23% Arlington County 54% 6% 26% 5% 3% 6% 46% Fairfax County 71% 10% 10% 2% 2% 6% 29% Loudoun County 78% 9% 4% 1% 1% 7% 22% Prince William County 75% 13% 5% 1% 1% 4% 25% Alexandria City 58% 8% 22% 4% 3% 5% 42% Fairfax City 71% 9% 10% 4% 1% 5% 29% City of Falls Church 60% 7% 20% 3% 3% 7% 40% Manassas City 78% 12% 3% 2% 1% 4% 22% Manassas Park City 71% 18% 6% 0% 1% 3% 29% National Capital Region 70% 10% 11% 2% 2% 6% 30% Used American Community Survey 2016 results 16

15 Questions for Target Setting How will the targets be integrated in the transportation planning and project development process? How will factors outside the agency s control be considered? Are the goals aspirational that might spur alternative practices, executive action or different funding decisions? What is the plan for adjusting the targets in response to experience, funding changes, policy actions or other events? 17

16 Next Steps Methodology for Target Setting 1. Define Purpose 2. Set Target parameters 3. Assemble baseline data and analyze trends 4. Identify and assess Influencing Factors 5. Establish a Target 6. Track progress towards target achievement 7. Internal Agency Reporting and Communications 8. External Stakeholder Reporting and communications Coordination with Executives, Stakeholders Communication with MPOs Webinar next week will go into more detail! 18

17 QUESTIONS? 19

18 When? State DOTs must establish 2-and 4-year targets for the Interstate, but only a 4-year target for the non-interstate NHS, by May 20, Those targets will be reported in the State s baseline performance period report due by October 1, The State DOTs have the option to adjust 4-year targets in their mid performance period progress report, due October 1, For the first performance period only, there is no requirement for States to report baseline condition/performance or 2-year targets for the non- Interstate NHS before the mid performance period progress report. The process will align for both Interstate and non-interstate measures with the beginning of the second performance period on January 1, MPOs must either support the State target or establish their own quantifiable 4-year targets within 180 days of the State target establishment. 20