Sub-county Population in County Durham

Transcription

1 Sub-county Population in County Durham 2017 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Area Action Partnership areas Ref: C1 Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30 th June 2017 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2018 on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the fourteen Area Action Partnership (AAP) areas to show long term sub-county trends. 3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership and Clinical Commissioning areas are also available on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by AAP area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the AAP areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2017 and he short term period of 2011 to Map 1: Area Action Partnerships areas covering County Durham County Council

2 Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+31,200 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-1,200 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+10,800 people) along with negative natural change (-160 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2016 and 2017 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,100 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 550 more deaths than births. This has seen the county s population increase by 0.3%/1,519 people. 9. All AAP areas, except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2017 with the largest growth in the Durham AAP of 16.8%/9,812 people and the Derwent Valley AAP with growth of 15.5%/6,239 people. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 5.0%/935 people over the same period. 10. Six of the fourteen AAPs have seen the number of children aged 0 to 15 increase since 2001 with the largest increases in the Derwent Valley AAP (645 more children, 8.3% rise) and the Stanley AAP (495 children, 8.3% rise). 11. Eight of the fourteen AAP areas have seen the number of children (aged 0 to 15) fall since 2001 with the largest percentage falls in the 4 Together AAP (677 fewer children, 18.2% fall) and the Teesdale AAP (662 fewer children, 15.5% fall). The East Durham AAP had the largest fall in its number of children will a fall of 2,098 children, a fall of 10.9%. 12. Since 2011 the number of AAPs seeing decreases in the 0 to 15 age group has fallen eight to five areas with the East Durham AAP seeing a small rise in this period of 0.2%. 13. Nine of the fourteen AAP areas have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since However since 2011 only the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP have seen an increase in this group, with increases of 4.8% and 1.4% respectively. 14. Similar to the county and the other sub-county areas all fourteen AAPs have had an increase in the 65+ age group since The largest percentage increase was in the Weardale AAP (in part due to small numbers) which increased by 53.0%, an increase of 820 people. However the largest increase in number was in the Durham AAP with an increase of 3,879/46.7% people aged 65 and over since All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with the 85+ population in the Great Aycliffe and Middridge nearly trebling between 2001 and 2017, rising 246 to 675 people, an increase of 172.8%. East Durham AAP has the largest number of people aged 85+ with 2,039 people.

3 % change 2001 base Population change by AAP Area Age group: Overall 16. All AAP areas except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 5.0%/935 people. A detailed table is provided in Appendix 1. Figure 1: % change in total population since 2001 by AAP area. 120% Durham AAP Derwent Valley AAP 115% 3 Towns Partnership AAP Spennymoor AAP 110% 105% Stanley AAP East Durham Rural AAP County Durham Mid Durham AAP Weardale AAP 100% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP Teesdale AAP 95% Chester-le-Street & District AAP East Durham AAP 90% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 2001 Base 4 Together Partnership AAP 17. The majority of growth has been in the Derwent Valley AAP and Durham AAP areas with increases of 15.5% and 16.8% respectively with the 4 Together AAP showing the highest percentage decrease of 5.0% over the same period. 18. Since 2011 the highest growth has been in the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP areas with growth of 7.4% and 5.9% respectively with the other areas seeing smaller increases or very small decreases (in the cases of 4 Together, East Durham AAP, Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP and Weardale AAP with falls of 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively). Table 1 below summarises some of these changes

4 % change 2001 base Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2017 Population Number change % change Towns Partnership AAP 22,588 24,853 25,204 2, % 1.4% 4 Together Partnership AAP 18,564 17,660 17, % -0.2% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 41,367 42,258 42,760 1, % 1.2% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 53,679 54,116 54, % 0.4% Derwent Valley AAP 40,287 44,951 46,526 6,239 1, % 3.5% Durham AAP 58,467 63,565 68,279 9,812 4, % 7.4% East Durham AAP 92,688 93,626 93, % -0.2% East Durham Rural AAP 23,853 25,331 25,882 2, % 2.2% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 26,697 26,954 26, % -0.5% Mid Durham AAP 31,973 32,821 33,710 1, % 2.7% Spennymoor AAP 20,055 20,730 21,955 1,899 1, % 5.9% Stanley AAP 30,990 32,769 33,734 2, % 2.9% Teesdale AAP 24,459 25,009 25, % 0.0% Weardale AAP 8,023 8,351 8, % -0.1% County Durham 493, , ,662 29,973 10, % 2.1% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,644, ,627 48, % 1.9% England & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,744,595 6,384,595 2,573, % 4.6% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates Age group: 0 to Six of the fourteen AAPs have seen the number of children aged 0 to 15 increase since 2001 with the largest increases in the Derwent Valley AAP (645 more children, 8.3% rise) and the Stanley AAP (495 children, 8.3% rise). The largest percentage fall in this group was in the 4 Together AAP with a fall of 18.2%/677 children while in the East Durham AAP this group has fallen by 2,098 children since 2001, a fall of 10.9%. Figure 2: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by AAP area. 110% Stanley AAP Derwent Valley AAP 105% 3 Towns Partnership AAP Spennymoor AAP 100% 95% Durham AAP East Durham Rural AAP 2001 Base County Durham Mid Durham AAP 90% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP Weardale AAP 85% East Durham AAP Chester-le-Street & District AAP 80% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP Teesdale AAP 4 Together Partnership AAP

5 20. Since 2011 the number of AAPs seeing an increase in their child population increased to nine with three areas seeing a slight reversal to the longer term trend of decline. The Bishop Auckland & Shildon AAP has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by 0.7% since 2011 compared to a longer term decline of 7.7%, in the Mid Durham AAP there was an increase of 2.1% short term and decline of 5.6% long term and in the East Durham Rural AAP there was growth of 0.2% short term compared to a decline of 10.9% long term. 21. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county 19.1% to 17.2% of the county total population. All AAP areas have also seen falls of between 3.0 and 0.1 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest fall in the Teesdale AAP area of 3.0 percentage points, falling 17.5% in 2001 to 14.4% in 2011 of the areas total population. 22. The Stanley AAP area had the lowest fall of 0.1 percentage points over this period and now has the highest proportion of its population aged 0 to 15 out of the fourteen AAP areas at 19.2%. In 2001 the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP had the highest portion of children with 21.6%, this has now fallen to 18.8%. Table 2 below summarises some of these changes. Table 2: Changes in the 0 to 15 population between 2001, 2011 and 2017 Population Number change % change Proportion Towns Partnership AAP 4,459 4,536 4, % 5.9% 19.7% 19.1% 4 Together Partnership AAP 3,714 3,043 3, % -0.2% 20.0% 17.2% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 8,439 7,734 7, % 0.7% 20.4% 18.2% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 10,332 9,288 9,054-1, % -2.5% 19.2% 16.7% Derwent Valley AAP 7,812 8,011 8, % 5.6% 19.4% 18.2% Durham AAP 8,682 8,336 9, % 8.5% 14.8% 13.2% East Durham AAP 19,188 17,062 17,090-2, % 0.2% 20.7% 18.3% East Durham Rural AAP 4,651 4,564 4, % 2.9% 19.5% 18.1% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 5,757 5,174 5, % -2.6% 21.6% 18.8% Mid Durham AAP 6,086 5,628 5, % 2.1% 19.0% 17.0% Spennymoor AAP 3,662 3,636 3, % 7.4% 18.3% 17.8% Stanley AAP 5,967 6,054 6, % 6.7% 19.3% 19.2% Teesdale AAP 4,275 3,832 3, % -5.7% 17.5% 14.4% Weardale AAP 1,287 1,262 1, % -7.0% 16.0% 14.1% County Durham 94,311 88,160 89,899-4,412 1, % 2.0% 19.1% 17.2% North East 500, , ,260-29,640 9, % 2.0% 19.7% 17.9% England & Wales 10,495,200 10,586,000 11,197, , , % 5.8% 20.0% 19.2% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

6 % change 2001 base Age group: 16 to 64 (Working age definition) 23. Since 2001 nine AAP areas have seen increases in their working age population (aged 16 to 64). However, since 2011 this trend has reversed with only two of the previous nine AAPs seeing an increase in their working age population: Durham AAP and the Spennymoor AAP. Figure 3: % change since 2001 in the 16 to 64 age group by AAP area 120% Durham AAP Derwent Valley AAP 115% 110% 3 Towns Partnership AAP Stanley AAP County Durham Spennymoor AAP 105% East Durham Rural AAP 100% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP Mid Durham AAP 95% East Durham AAP 2001 Base 90% Teesdale AAP Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 85% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 4 Together Partnership AAP Weardale AAP 24. The largest increases were in the Derwent Valley AAP, 13.3%/3,380 people rising to 28,748 and the Durham AAP, 13.4%/5,573 people rising to 47,045. The largest percentage fall was in the Weardale AAP with a fall of 7.5%/388 people, with the largest number fall seen in the Chester-le- Street AAP of 1,599 people, a fall of 4.6%. 25. Since 2011 and as mentioned above only the Durham AAP and the Spennymoor AAP have seen increases in their working age population, increases of 4.8%/2,171 and 1.4%/181 respectively. The largest percentage fall was again in the Weardale AAP with a fall of 7.4%/384 people indicating that the majority of the areas decrease since 2001 has been over the last seven years. 26. Since 2011 the largest number fall was in the East Durham AAP with a fall of 1,627 people, a fall of 2.7%. This large fall in number is in part due to falling number of children, people aging into retirement and outward migration 1 the area. Since 2011 the figures show that 404 more people migrated out of the area than in to it and it is one of only two AAPs to show a net outward migration since 2011, along with the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP which had net outward migration of 113 people. 27. Proportionally the 16 to 64 age group gradually increased between 2001 and 2008 to 65.2% 64.3% of the county total population. Since 2008 this group has steadily fallen to 62.4%. A similar pattern is seen across thirteen of the AAP areas except for the East Durham AAP which has shown a slight improvement in this latest data release. 1 Migration figures are derived a best fit approach of MSOAs to AAPs. As these boundaries are not co-terminus there is a great deal of overlap and repetition within neighbouring AAPs. Therefore these figures are indicative only as it is possible that the data in a particular overlapping MSOA refers to a neighbouring AAP.

7 28. Since 2001 only the East Durham AAP has seen an increase in the proportion of its working age population, an increase of 0.2 percentage points despite seeing the number of people in this age group fall as detailed above. The Weardale AAP had the largest fall in proportion of 7.1 percentage points since 2001, falling 58.3% in 2016 to 57.6% in Table 3 below summarises some of these changes. Table 3: Changes in the 16 to 64 (working age) population between 2001, 2011 and 2017 Population Number change % change Proportion Towns Partnership AAP 14,039 15,851 15,303 1, % -3.5% 62.2% 60.7% 4 Together Partnership AAP 11,496 11,175 10, % -3.8% 61.9% 61.0% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 25,707 26,929 26, % -2.4% 62.1% 61.5% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 35,046 34,544 33,447-1,599-1, % -3.2% 65.3% 61.6% Derwent Valley AAP 25,368 28,876 28,748 3, % -0.4% 63.0% 61.8% Durham AAP 41,472 44,874 47,045 5,573 2, % 4.8% 70.9% 68.9% East Durham AAP 57,717 59,995 58, , % -2.7% 62.3% 62.4% East Durham Rural AAP 15,451 16,106 15, % -1.4% 64.8% 61.3% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 17,007 17,032 16, % -4.7% 63.7% 60.5% Mid Durham AAP 20,594 21,237 20, % -1.8% 64.4% 61.9% Spennymoor AAP 13,172 13,372 13, % 1.4% 65.7% 61.7% Stanley AAP 19,848 21,086 20, % -1.5% 64.0% 61.6% Teesdale AAP 15,459 15,558 14, % -4.5% 63.2% 59.4% Weardale AAP 5,189 5,185 4, % -7.4% 64.7% 57.6% County Durham 317, , ,884 9,319-4, % -1.5% 64.3% 62.4% North East 1,620,000 1,681,700 1,658,564 38,564-23, % -1.4% 63.8% 62.9% England & Wales 33,523,200 36,288,900 36,873,584 3,350, , % 1.6% 64.0% 63.2% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

8 % change 2001 base Age group: As with the county and other areas across the country all AAP areas have seen the number of people aged 65 and over increase since 2001 with the largest percentage increase in the Weardale AAP of 53.0%/820 people. Figure 4: % change since 2001 in the 65+ age group by AAP area 165% 155% 145% Weardale AAP Durham AAP Chester-le-Street & District AAP Stanley AAP Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 135% Spennymoor AAP 125% Teesdale AAP Mid Durham AAP 115% Derwent Valley AAP County Durham 105% East Durham Rural AAP 3 Towns Partnership AAP 95% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 85% 4 Together Partnership AAP East Durham AAP 2001 Base 30. However the largest increases in the number of older people have been in the Durham AAP which increased by 3,879 people to 12,192, an increase of 46.7% and the Chester-le-Street AAP which increased by 3,524 people to 11,825, an increase of 42.5%. 31. Proportionally the 65+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county 16.6% to 20.4% of the county total population. All AAP areas have seen increases of between 2.1 and 9.1 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest increase of 9.1 percentage points seen in Weardale AAP, however it is important to note that this AAP had the lowest number of people aged 65+ in 2017 with 2,367 people, increasing the proportion in this area to 28.4% 19.3% in Although the Durham AAP had the largest increase in number in the age group this AAP still has the lowest proportion of its population in this group 17.9% in 2017, up 14.2% in Table 4 below summarises some of these changes.

9 Table 4: Changes in the 65+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017 Population Number change % change Proportion Towns Partnership AAP 4,090 4,466 5,098 1, % 14.1% 18.1% 20.2% 4 Together Partnership AAP 3,354 3,442 3, % 11.7% 18.1% 21.8% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 7,221 7,595 8,689 1,468 1, % 14.4% 17.5% 20.3% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 8,301 10,284 11,825 3,524 1, % 15.0% 15.5% 21.8% Derwent Valley AAP 7,107 8,064 9,321 2,214 1, % 15.6% 17.6% 20.0% Durham AAP 8,313 10,355 12,192 3,879 1, % 17.7% 14.2% 17.9% East Durham AAP 15,783 16,569 18,016 2,233 1, % 8.7% 17.0% 19.3% East Durham Rural AAP 3,751 4,660 5,312 1, % 14.0% 15.7% 20.5% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 3,933 4,748 5,561 1, % 17.1% 14.7% 20.7% Mid Durham AAP 5,293 5,956 7,112 1,820 1, % 19.4% 16.6% 21.1% Spennymoor AAP 3,221 3,723 4,497 1, % 20.8% 16.1% 20.5% Stanley AAP 5,175 5,629 6,498 1, % 15.4% 16.7% 19.3% Teesdale AAP 4,725 5,619 6,545 1, % 16.5% 19.3% 26.2% Weardale AAP 1,547 1,903 2, % 24.3% 19.3% 28.4% County Durham 81,813 93, ,879 25,066 13, % 14.9% 16.6% 20.4% North East 419, , ,903 95,703 62, % 13.8% 16.5% 19.5% England & Wales 1,017,500 9,296,100 10,673,780 9,656,280 1,377, % 14.8% 1.9% 18.3% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

10 % change 2001 base Age group: Within the 85+ age group the percentage increases are more dramatic and are in part due to the smaller numbers involved. All AAP areas have seen increases since 2001, although due to the smaller number involved the percentage changes range increases of 4.6% to 174.4%. Figure 5: % change since 2001 in the 85+ age group by AAP area 165% 155% 145% Weardale AAP Durham AAP Chester-le-Street & District AAP Stanley AAP Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 135% Spennymoor AAP 125% Teesdale AAP Mid Durham AAP 115% Derwent Valley AAP County Durham 105% East Durham Rural AAP 3 Towns Partnership AAP 95% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 85% 4 Together Partnership AAP East Durham AAP 2001 Base 34. The largest increase in this group was in the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP, an increase of 174.4% 2001 which increased the number of people aged 85 and over 246 to 675 in The 3 Towns AAP only increased by 4.6% over the same period, an increase of 25 people. 35. This trend is also seen over the shorter term period since 2011 except for the 3 Towns AAP and the 4 Together AAP which are the only areas to see this age group fall over this period, falls of 4.0%/23 and 3.3%/14 people respectively since The Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP increase by 35.8%/178 people over this same period. The table below summarises these changes. 36. Proportionally the 85+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county 1.7% to 2.3% of the county total population and apart the 3 Towns AAP a similar pattern can be seen across the other AAP areas. Across the 3 Towns AAP the proportion of the population aged 85 and over remained steady at 2.2%, slightly down 2.4% in Table 4 below summarises some of these changes.

11 Table 5: Changes in the 85+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017 Population Number change % change Proportion Towns Partnership AAP % -4.0% 2.4% 2.2% 4 Together Partnership AAP % -3.3% 1.9% 2.3% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP , % 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 897 1,058 1, % 19.8% 1.7% 2.3% Derwent Valley AAP 843 1,073 1, % 6.9% 2.1% 2.5% Durham AAP 942 1,202 1, % 20.8% 1.6% 2.1% East Durham AAP 1,455 1,790 2, % 13.9% 1.6% 2.2% East Durham Rural AAP % 3.6% 1.6% 2.2% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP % 35.8% 0.9% 2.5% Mid Durham AAP % 15.9% 1.7% 2.5% Spennymoor AAP % 8.6% 1.5% 2.2% Stanley AAP % 0.7% 1.9% 2.1% Teesdale AAP % 13.4% 2.2% 3.4% Weardale AAP % 10.0% 2.5% 2.9% County Durham 8,574 10,974 12,214 3,640 1, % 11.3% 1.7% 2.3% North East 43,000 56,300 63,819 20,819 7, % 13.4% 1.7% 2.4% England & Wales 1,017,500 1,268,600 1,433, , , % 13.0% 1.9% 2.5% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates How does this topic link to our strategies and plans? The information in this factsheet is used to inform and support the strategies and plans published on the County Durham Partnership website. Other links: Durham Insight: Population and Deprivation Sub-county profiles (under Area Reports ) Author: Research and Public Health Intelligence Team Approver: Research and Public Health Intelligence Team Published: November 2018 Review: November 2019 Data sources: s

12 Appendix 1 Table 1: Population change by AAP to 2017 Number (% change 2001) 3 Towns Partnership AAP 4 Together Partnership AAP Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP Chester-le- Street & District AAP Derwent Valley AAP Durham AAP East Durham AAP County Durham ,588 18,564 41,367 53,679 40,287 58,467 92, , ,550 (-0.2) 18,388 (-0.9) 41,024 (-0.8) 53,875 (0.4) 40,664 (0.9) 58,230 (-0.4) 92,132 (-0.6) 493,538 (0.0) ,750 (0.7) 18,466 (-0.5) 41,257 (-0.3) 53,694 (0.0) 41,122 (2.1) 57,970 (-0.9) 91,868 (-0.9) 493,931 (0.0) ,175 (2.6) 18,594 (0.2) 41,260 (-0.3) 53,677 (0.0) 41,605 (3.3) 57,600 (-1.5) 91,812 (-0.9) 495,147 (0.3) ,472 (3.9) 18,652 (0.5) 41,527 (0.4) 53,623 (-0.1) 42,034 (4.3) 57,803 (-1.1) 92,233 (-0.5) 497,218 (0.7) ,759 (5.2) 18,573 (0.0) 41,412 (0.1) 53,833 (0.3) 42,401 (5.2) 58,792 (0.6) 92,463 (-0.2) 499,348 (1.1) ,162 (7.0) 18,317 (-1.3) 41,744 (0.9) 53,811 (0.2) 43,186 (7.2) 60,045 (2.7) 92,859 (0.2) 502,960 (1.9) ,517 (8.5) 18,050 (-2.8) 41,925 (1.3) 53,715 (0.1) 43,709 (8.5) 60,776 (3.9) 93,366 (0.7) 505,617 (2.4) ,649 (9.1) 17,910 (-3.5) 41,850 (1.2) 53,993 (0.6) 44,010 (9.2) 60,990 (4.3) 93,682 (1.1) 507,311 (2.8) ,717 (9.4) 17,774 (-4.3) 42,086 (1.7) 54,015 (0.6) 44,513 (10.5) 62,698 (7.2) 93,587 (1.0) 510,628 (3.4) ,853 (10.0) 17,660 (-4.9) 42,258 (2.2) 54,116 (0.8) 44,951 (11.6) 63,565 (8.7) 93,626 (1.0) 512,994 (3.9) ,811 (9.8) 17,570 (-5.4) 42,265 (2.2) 54,308 (1.2) 45,216 (12.2) 64,131 (9.7) 93,621 (1.0) 514,348 (4.2) ,885 (10.2) 17,504 (-5.7) 42,375 (2.4) 54,228 (1.0) 45,270 (12.4) 65,676 (12.3) 93,606 (1.0) 515,957 (4.5) ,011 (10.7) 17,547 (-5.5) 42,461 (2.6) 54,434 (1.4) 45,714 (13.5) 66,002 (12.9) 93,542 (0.9) 517,773 (4.9) ,107 (11.2) 17,675 (-4.8) 42,616 (3.0) 54,451 (1.4) 45,961 (14.1) 66,283 (13.4) 93,550 (0.9) 519,695 (5.3) ,313 (12.1) 17,714 (-4.6) 42,703 (3.2) 54,411 (1.4) 46,187 (14.6) 67,500 (15.4) 93,557 (0.9) 522,143 (5.8) ,204 (11.6) 17,629 (-5.0) 42,760 (3.4) 54,326 (1.2) 46,526 (15.5) 68,279 (16.8) 93,474 (0.8) 523,662 (6.1) Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.

13 Table 1: Continued Number (% change 2001) East Durham Rural AAP Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP Mid Durham AAP Spennymoor AAP Stanley AAP Teesdale AAP Weardale AAP County Durham ,853 26,697 31,973 20,055 30,990 24,459 8, , ,003 (0.6) 26,834 (0.5) 31,775 (-0.6) 20,251 (1.0) 31,029 (0.1) 24,638 (0.7) 8,145 (1.5) 493,538 (0.0) ,194 (1.4) 26,604 (-0.3) 31,697 (-0.9) 20,323 (1.3) 31,166 (0.6) 24,734 (1.1) 8,086 (0.8) 493,931 (0.0) ,322 (2.0) 26,782 (0.3) 31,535 (-1.4) 20,409 (1.8) 31,396 (1.3) 24,854 (1.6) 8,125 (1.3) 495,147 (0.3) ,426 (2.4) 26,764 (0.3) 31,566 (-1.3) 20,471 (2.1) 31,575 (1.9) 24,870 (1.7) 8,202 (2.2) 497,218 (0.7) ,466 (2.6) 26,611 (-0.3) 31,874 (-0.3) 20,476 (2.1) 31,536 (1.8) 24,928 (1.9) 8,224 (2.5) 499,348 (1.1) ,722 (3.6) 26,665 (-0.1) 32,001 (0.1) 20,525 (2.3) 31,750 (2.5) 24,870 (1.7) 8,303 (3.5) 502,960 (1.9) ,873 (4.3) 26,623 (-0.3) 32,221 (0.8) 20,541 (2.4) 32,074 (3.5) 24,915 (1.9) 8,312 (3.6) 505,617 (2.4) ,852 (4.2) 26,744 (0.2) 32,364 (1.2) 20,635 (2.9) 32,217 (4.0) 25,088 (2.6) 8,326 (3.8) 507,311 (2.8) ,129 (5.4) 26,840 (0.5) 32,640 (2.1) 20,623 (2.8) 32,476 (4.8) 25,144 (2.8) 8,386 (4.5) 510,628 (3.4) ,331 (6.2) 26,954 (1.0) 32,821 (2.7) 20,730 (3.4) 32,769 (5.7) 25,009 (2.2) 8,351 (4.1) 512,994 (3.9) ,427 (6.6) 27,015 (1.2) 32,777 (2.5) 20,963 (4.5) 32,856 (6.0) 25,057 (2.4) 8,331 (3.8) 514,348 (4.2) ,449 (6.7) 26,822 (0.5) 32,871 (2.8) 21,086 (5.1) 32,929 (6.3) 24,971 (2.1) 8,285 (3.3) 515,957 (4.5) ,566 (7.2) 26,774 (0.3) 32,994 (3.2) 21,265 (6.0) 33,025 (6.6) 25,178 (2.9) 8,260 (3.0) 517,773 (4.9) ,684 (7.7) 26,820 (0.5) 33,367 (4.4) 21,468 (7.0) 33,332 (7.6) 25,079 (2.5) 8,301 (3.5) 519,695 (5.3) ,776 (8.1) 26,895 (0.7) 33,444 (4.6) 21,698 (8.2) 33,591 (8.4) 24,986 (2.2) 8,368 (4.3) 522,143 (5.8) ,882 (8.5) 26,824 (0.5) 33,710 (5.4) 21,955 (9.5) 33,734 (8.9) 25,017 (2.3) 8,342 (4.0) 523,662 (6.1) Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.

14 Appendix 2 Long Term (2001 to 2017) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 1. At a more local level, just over two thirds (46) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2001 and Less than half of MSOAs (30) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 46 had positive net migration. 3. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E ) had the highest increase in population of 3,706 additional people between 2001 and 2017, an increase of 41.1% This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 236 and high positive migration of people into the area of 3, Durham City (MSOA E ) had the second highest percentage increase of 36.7%, (an increase of 3,723 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 4,674 more people moving into the area as there was high negative natural change over this period with 951 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas. 5. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E ) with a fall of 871 people and the Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central area (MSOA E ) which fell by 676 people during this period, falls of 12.9% and 8.4% respectively. 6. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (236 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (635 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central was due to high levels of net outward migration the area (1,148 more people moving out of the area than in) while natural change added an additional 472 to its population. 7. The area of Durham City (MSOA E ) had the highest fall in natural change between 2001 and 2017 with 951 more deaths than births. However, this fall was out-weighed by having the largest positive net migration figure of 4,674 out of all 66 MSOAs. 8. The area of Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E ) had the highest growth in natural change of 819 more births than deaths. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

15 Map 1: % change in total population since 2001 by MSOA

16 -2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Figure 1: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2017 by MSOA Durham City Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Leadgate North and Consett East Delves and Leadgate South St Helens Auckland and West Auckland Consett West and Castleside Murton South and South Hetton Byers Green and Spennymoor Craghead and South Stanley Seaham North and Seaton Gilesgate Moor Crook South and Willington North Crook North Howden-le-Wear and Cassop and Coxhoe Bishop Auckland and South Church Stanley North and Kip Hill Shotton Colliery Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me Hutton Henry and Wingate Bowburn and Shincliffe Medomsley and Shotley Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield Sacriston and Waldridge Brasside and Newton Hall Bearpark and Witton Gilbert Barnard Castle and Startforth Sherburn and West Rainton Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Dawdon and Seaham Harbour Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Annfield Plain South and South Moor Stanhope and Wolsingham Midridge and Woodham Village Brandon Pelton and Grange Villa Chester-le-Street North Lanchester Chilton and Ferryhill Station Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll Newton Aycliffe Central Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean Hamsterley and Staindrop Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale Coundon and Willington South Langley Park Cornsay and Satley Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Fishburn and Trimdons Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South Bournmoor and Great Lumley Chester-le-Street South Newton Aycliffe East Shildon Easington Colliery North Spennymoor North and Tudhoe Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Beamish Ouston and Urpeth Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill Belmont and Carville Cornforth and Ferryhill Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene Passfield and Shotton Blackhalls Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central Horden Net Natural Change Migration

17 Medium Term (2011 to 2017) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 9. At a more local level, just under two thirds (41) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2011 and Around half of MSOAs (32) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 44 had positive net migration. 11. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E ) had the highest increase in population of 1,833 additional people between 2011 and 2017, an increase of 18.0% This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 75 and high positive migration into the area of 1,758 more people moving into the area than leaving. 12. Durham City (MSOA E ) had the second highest percentage increase of 13.7%, (an increase of 1,666 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 2,026 more people moving into the area as there was negative natural change over this period with 360 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the continuing expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas. 13. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E ) with a fall of 500 people and Passfield and Shotton area (MSOA E ) which fell by 253 people during this period, falls of 7.8% and 3.7% respectively. 14. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (133 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (367 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Passfield and Shotton was also due to net outward migration the area (173 more people moving out of the area than in) and negative natural change with 80 more deaths than births during this period. 15. The Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central (MSOA E ) area, which had the second highest fall in population between 2001 and 2017 (see above), showed no change between 2011 and 2017 with positive natural change of 178 more births than deaths and a net outward migration figure of 178 more people moving out of the area than in. 16. The area of Barnard Castle and Startforth (MSOA E ) had the highest fall in natural change between 2011 and 2017 with 411 more deaths than births. However, this fall was balanced out with a positive net migration figure of The area of Durham City (MSOA E ) had the highest positive net migration of 2,026 more people moving into the area while Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E ) had the highest net outward migration figure of 538 more people leaving the area. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

18 Map 2: % change in total population since 2011 by MSOA

19 -1, ,000 1,500 2,000-2,000-1,500-1, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Figure 2: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2017 by MSOA Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Durham City Consett West and Castleside Byers Green and Spennymoor Gilesgate Moor Craghead and South Stanley Bowburn and Shincliffe Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean Shotton Colliery Brasside and Newton Hall Cassop and Coxhoe Delves and Leadgate South Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West St Helens Auckland and West Auckland Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me Pelton and Grange Villa Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Medomsley and Shotley Sacriston and Waldridge Chilton and Ferryhill Station Dawdon and Seaham Harbour Murton South and South Hetton Bishop Auckland and South Church Coundon and Willington South Annfield Plain South and South Moor Barnard Castle and Startforth Stanley North and Kip Hill Crook South and Willington North Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Lanchester Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South Crook North Howden-le-Wear and Sherburn and West Rainton Langley Park Cornsay and Satley Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll Midridge and Woodham Village Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Bearpark and Witton Gilbert Seaham North and Seaton Hutton Henry and Wingate Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central Stanhope and Wolsingham Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield Newton Aycliffe East Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene Hamsterley and Staindrop Fishburn and Trimdons Shildon Brandon Easington Colliery North Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale Chester-le-Street South Blackhalls Chester-le-Street North Beamish Ouston and Urpeth Cornforth and Ferryhill Belmont and Carville Leadgate North and Consett East Bournmoor and Great Lumley Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill Spennymoor North and Tudhoe Newton Aycliffe Central Passfield and Shotton Horden Net Natural Change Migration