Recommendations on breast cancer screening and prevention in the context of implementing risk stratification: impending changes to current policies

Transcription

1 Supplemental Materials for: Recommendations on breast cancer screening and prevention in the context of implementing risk stratification: impending changes to current policies J. Gagnon, E. Lévesque, the Clinical Advisory Committee on Breast Cancer Screening and Prevention (F. Borduas, J. Chiquette, C. Diorio, N. Duchesne, M. Dumais, L. Eloy, W. Foulkes, N. Gervais, L. Lalonde, B. L Espérance, S. Meterissian, L. Provencher, J. Richard, C. Savard, I. Trop, N. Wong), B.M. Knoppers, and J. Simard Curr Oncol Dec;23(6):e615-e625

2 Supplementary material: Background literature supporting the recommendations. 1. Risk assessment 1.1 Referral to a breast clinic for risk assessment Previous history of atypical ductal hyperplasia Women who have been diagnosed with atypical ductal hyperplasia have a relative risk of 3.7 to 5.3 for developing breast cancer. 1,2,3,4,5,6 Diagnosis of atypical ductal hyperplasia in one breast equally increases ipsilateral and contralateral risk of developing a breast cancer. 3 In one U.S. study, only 56% of the cancer cases developed after a diagnosis of atypical ductal hyperplasia were ipsilateral. The relative risk of developing breast cancer with a history of atypical hyperplasia was According to some authors, women with a history of atypical ductal hyperplasia of the breast should be evaluated in a specialized breast clinic to determine monitoring and risk reduction strategies. 2,5,8,9,10 Studies suggest that a family history of breast cancer could contribute to an increased risk of developing breast cancer in women with a personal history of atypical ductal hyperplasia, which supports the referral of these women to a specialized breast clinic to determine the appropriate risk level. 3,11 The relative risk could be as high as Previous history of lobular neoplasia Context: The term lobular neoplasia used in this document includes lobular carcinoma in situ and atypical lobular hyperplasia.

3 Women with a history of lobular neoplasia have a relative risk of of developing breast cancer. 5,6,7,11,13 The annual risk of breast cancer after lobular neoplasia is approximately 1%, 14,15,16 and the lifetime risk of breast cancer in women with a history of lobular neoplasia in the breast is estimated to be 10-20%. 3,6,17 Prior history of columnar cell change with atypia The association between breast cancer and columnar cell lesions, with or without atypia and diagnosed from breast biopsies, is controversial. Some studies suggest that when these lesions are found through biopsy, there is no increased risk of finding a cancer during surgery. However, other studies suggest the opposite. Some studies only include a small number of women, and/or have certain experimental design flaws. In addition, very few studies examined columnar cell lesions without atypia. In one study, no invasive breast cancer was detected during pathological examinations of surgically removed specimens with columnar cell lesions. However, few women participated in the study, and it did not specify whether non-invasive cancer was found. 18 One study suggests that columnar cell lesions detected during biopsy can indicate increased risk of breast cancer, but this increase is not independent of other proliferative changes in the breast. 19 Several studies showed underestimation rates in surgery to the extent of 6 to 19% for atypical columnar cell lesions. 20,21,22,23,24 One study (n=20 women) showed that 10% of columnar cell lesions found in the biopsy were underestimated in surgery. This article did not differentiate between lesions with or without atypia. 25 One study suggested the presence of columnar cell lesions was associated with breast density, which is a breast cancer risk factor in itself. Half of the lesions (20/40) were not atypical. Two cases of cancer were observed during surgery, and only in atypical lesions (10%, 2/20). 26

4 Prior history of thoracic radiation therapy before age 30 Women who have been exposed to a strong dose of ionizing radiation (radiotherapy or survivors of atomic bombs or nuclear accidents) have a higher risk of developing breast cancer. 27,28,29,30,31 The risk is highest when the exposure to radiation occurred during puberty, between ages 10 and 14, but high risk is observed in women who were exposed to these doses up until age In women of all ages (including women over 30) diagnosed with Hodgkin s disease, breast cancer carried the strongest excess risk observed of any cancer, with a relative risk of approximately 1.5, 33,34,35 although higher risks were reported in other studies (4.1 to 5.6). 36,37,38,39 Breast cancer is one of the major secondary conditions among women who received radiotherapy before age 30 for Hodgkin s lymphoma and long-term follow-ups. 35,37,38 The risk of breast cancer associated with thoracic radiotherapy is even higher in women who received mantle field radiation, 40 or who did not receive chemotherapy for their lymphoma. 41 One study identified different risks of breast cancer over a 30-year period according to the age of exposure, the dose of radiation and the use of alkylating agents. Table 1 summarizes the risks identified in this study. 42

5 Table 1: Risk of breast cancer following mediastinal radiotherapy based on radiation dose and the use of alkylating agents Age at Mediastinal radiotherapy (Gy) Absolute risk of breast cancer over 30 years of follow-up (%) diagnosis Alkylating agents used Alkylating agents not used < < < < Recommendations from organizations: For women who received thoracic radiation between ages 10 and 30, NCCN recommends annual mammograms and MRI screening 8 to 10 years after treatment, but not before age For women who received thoratic radiotherapy before age 30, Cancer Care Ontario offers annual mammograms and MRIs starting at age 30 but at least 8 years after the radiotherapy. 44 The American Cancer Society recommends annual MRI screening to women who have received thoracic radiotherapy between ages 10 and 30, without a specific starting age. 45

6 Previous history of a biopsy with benign results The National Institutes of Health (NIH) Breast Cancer Risk Assessment tool includes the medical history of breast biopsies. Women who have a history of breast biopsies could be at a higher risk for breast cancer since they have the characteristic higher breast tissue activity and breast changes that lead to biopsies. 46 Studies have shown that a history of breast biopsies with benign results is associated with a relative risk of 1.4 to 1.87 of developing breast cancer. 1,47,48 Prior history of proliferative lesions without atypia Context: By proliferative lesions without atypia, we mean usual intraductal hyperplasia, intraductal papilloma, sclerosing adenosis, radial scars and simple fibroadenomas. Data suggests that proliferative breast lesions without atypia are breast lesions that will either evolve slowly into breast cancer or not at all. 2,3,8,10,49,50,51 One American study showed a relative risk of 1.51 of developing breast cancer among women who have a history of proliferative lesions without atypia, compared to women with a history of non-proliferative lesions. 12

7 Prior history of a non-proliferative lesion without atypia Context: In this context, non-proliferative lesion without atypia, is understood as: simple cysts, papillary apocrine changes, epithelial-related calcifications and moderate hyperplasia of the usual type. Non-proliferative lesions constitute a heterogeneous group of lesions without any particular clinical significance. 52,53,54 Columnar cell change without atypia Refer to the section above on columnar cell change with atypia. 1.2 Referral to a genetics service Context: In addition to breast cancer risk, the BOADICEA risk calculation tool assesses the risk of carrying a mutation in the BRCA1/BRCA2 genes. The percentage is often calculated in a genetics clinic to determine eligibility for a genetic analysis that will either confirm or disconfirm the presence of a mutation in the BRCA1/BRCA2 genes. However, this percentage is not currently used as a criterion for referral to a genetics service in Quebec or elsewhere. The criteria for referral to a genetics service are different from the eligibility criteria for genetic analysis. Recommendations from organizations: A 10% threshold is generally accepted as a criterion designating eligibility for genetic testing for mutations of the BRCA1/BRCA2 genes in an individual who has developed breast or ovarian cancer. 55,56,57,58

8 2. Breast density Context: Presently, breast density is visually estimated for all mammographic screening done within the Quebec Breast Cancer Screening Program (see figure 1). Figure 1: Data entry for the radiographic report in the PQDCS (in French) Approximately 27% of Quebec women between the ages of 40 and 49 reported undergoing mammographic screening in the last two years (i.e., outside of the Quebec Breast Cancer Screening Program). 59 The BOADICEA risk calculation tool will soon include breast density as a factor for calculating individual risk. It will be possible to calculate the risk with or without breast density, but the calculation will be more precise if density is included.

9 In the literature, breast density is often divided as indicated in table 2. Table 2: Categorization of breast density and number of women in each category BI-RADS category 4 th edition BI-RADS category 5 th edition Percentage of dense tissue (%) Categorization according to the PQDCS Women ages in each category 60 Women ages in each category 60 Women ages in each category 60 1 a 0-25% Mostly fatty breasts 3% 6% 12% 2 b 26-50% Slightly dense breasts 23% 37% 43% 3 c 51-75% Moderately dense breasts 57% 41% 41% 4 d % Extremely dense breasts 17% 8% 4% Breast density is strongly linked to breast cancer risk. A meta-analysis using data from women ages 40 to 49 showed a relative risk of breast cancer of 0.46, 1.62 and 2.04 for women with a breast density in categories a, c and d respectively, compared to women with category b breast density. 48 Breast density also affects the mammographic sensitivity and the risk of developing an interval cancer. One study (see below table) showed a more elevated risk of interval cancer for women who have more than 75% dense tissue, compared to women with less than 10% dense tissue. The effect was also noted in women who have between 50-74% dense tissue. Since the increased risk of interval cancer was primarily within the first year after the mammogram, the authors concluded that the cancer was likely hidden by the dense tissue visualized in the mammogram. Table 3 shows the relative risk of cancer detection during a mammogram, less than 12 months after a negative result and over 12 months after a negative result. 61

10 Table 3: Breast density and breast cancer risk depending on the detection method Relative risk (95% Confidence intervals) Breast density All detection methods Detection by screening Detection < 12 months after a negative screening <10% to <25% 1.8 ( ) 1.6 ( ) 2.1 ( ) 2.0 ( ) 25 to <50% 2.1 ( ) 1.8 ( ) 3.6 ( ) 2.6 ( ) 50 to <75% 2.4 ( ) 2.0 ( ) 5.6 ( ) 3.1 ( ) 75% 4.7 ( ) 3.5 ( ) 17.8 ( ) 5.7 ( ) Detection 12 months after a negative screening Another study also showed an increased relative risk of cancer being detected in the time between two screenings, rather than during screening, when density increases. Compared to women who have categories a and b breast density, the relative risk was 3.02 for women in category c and 6.14 for women in category d. 62 Breast density generally decreases with age. 63 Recommendations from organizations: The Canadian Association of Radiologists recommends the use of the American College of Radiology BI-RADS classification system for writing mammographic screening reports. The BI-RADS system should include breast composition in the report (density categories a, b, c, d). 64,65 The California Breast Density Law provides that a woman must be informed via written report if their mammogram detects heterogeneously dense breasts (category c) or extremely dense breasts (category d). 66 There are currently 19 states with similar laws in the United States. 67 The Ontario Breast Screening Program automatically invites women with over 75% dense tissue to annual screening by mammogram, instead of screening every two years. Breast density is reassessed every year. 68

11 3. Screening 3.1 Women near population risk Context: The PQDCS offers screening by mammography to women. For more information, visit the PQDCS website at: Women at intermediate risk Mammography Using a simulation model, one study concluded women ages with twice the average breast cancer risk (around 3% over 10 years for a 40 year-old woman) have a risk-benefit ratio similar to women ages 50 to 74 among the general population with mammographic screening every two years. 69 Recommendations from organizations: NICE recommends offering annual mammograms to women ages 40 to 49 who are at moderate risk (between 17% and 30% for life, according to their definition, or a risk of 3% to 8% between ages 40 and 49). These recommendations were established using cost-effectiveness analyses. 55 The National Breast and Ovarian Cancer Centre offers annual mammograms to women ages 40 and older at moderate risk, if they have a first degree relative diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50. A woman is considered at moderate risk if her calculated risk of breast cancer up until age 75 is between 12.5% and 25%. 70 The reason for this recommendation is not specified.

12 High breast density One study (see table 3 above) showed a higher risk of interval cancer among women with more than 75% dense tissue, compared to women with less than 10% dense tissue. This effect was also present for women who have between 50-74% dense tissue. Since the risk increase in interval cancer was primarily within the first year following the last screening, the authors concluded that the increase was likely due to dense tissue masking the cancer during the mammogram. The above table shows the relative risk of having a cancer detected via mammography, less than 12 months after a negative mammography screening, and more than 12 months after a negative screening. 61 Another study also showed an increase in the relative risk of the cancer being detected in the interval between two screenings, rather than during a screening, when density increases. Compared to women whose breast density is in categories a and b, the relative risk was 3.02 for women in category c and 6.14 for women in category d. 62 Recommendations from organizations: The Ontario Breast Screening Program automatically offers women with over 75% dense tissue annual mammography screening, instead of once every two years. Breast density is reassessed with each mammogram, until the density drops below 75%. 68 Ultrasound One study assessed the effect of combining screening ultrasound with mammography in a group of 2,809 women with an elevated breast cancer risk. 71 Table 4 summarizes the evidence obtained in terms of sensitivity and specificity.

13 Table 4: Sensitivity and specificity of mammography and ultrasound screening, alone and combined Screening method Sensitivity Specificity Mammography 52.0% 91.3% Ultrasound 45.3% 89.9% Mammography and ultrasound 76.0% 84.1% One study evaluated the effect of combining a screening ultrasound with mammography for women who have an elevated breast cancer risk and dense breasts (density >50%). The additional ultrasound identified 3.7 cancer cases per 1,000 screenings. Ultrasound increased sensitivity (76% versus 52% with mammography alone), but reduced specificity (84% versus 91%) and the positive predictive value (16% versus 38%). 72 One retrospective study found a similar sensitivity when ultrasound screening was combined with mammography among women with category c-d density compared to women who have category a-b density and mammography screening. 73 A research team performed ultrasound screening on 22,131 women with negative mammograms. The ultrasound screening detected 1.85/1,000 additional breast cancer cases (a total of 41, of which 37 were invasive). No significant difference was observed between women with category a-b density compared with category c-d density. 74 No randomized trial studying ultrasound screening and its potential to reduce mortality has been conducted. Age when screening ceases Recommendations from organizations: NICE recommends that mammography screening continue until age 73 for women at both population and intermediate risk. 55

14 3.3 Women at high risk Mammograms Recommendations from organizations: NICE recommends performing annual mammograms on women with high risk (over 30%) between ages 40 and 59 and to consider annual mammograms between ages 30 and 39. These recommendations were established using cost-effectiveness analyses. 55 Cancer Care Ontario offers annual mammograms to women with high risk (over 25% lifetime risk) between ages 30 and 69. This recommendation is based on a review of evidence. 44 The National Breast and Ovarian Cancer Centre suggests that screening include annual mammograms for women with high risk (over 25% lifetime risk). 70 The NCCN recommends annual mammograms for women ages 30 and older and for whom family history puts them at greater than 20% risk. This recommendation is based on a review of evidence with expert consensus. 75 Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) The Ontario Breast Cancer Screening Program published preliminary findings from screening of 2,359 women enrolled in the program up until now. Of the 35 cancer cases detected, none were detected by mammography alone, 23 were detected by MRI alone, and 12 were detected using both screening methods. 76

15 Table 5: Sensitivity and specificity of mammography and MRI, alone and combined, in a high-risk population. Screening method Sensitivity Specificity Mammography 36.8% 97.1% MRI 80.1% 97.0% Mammography and MRI 87.4% 94.2% Table adapted from the Program in evidence-based care and Cancer Care Ontario. 77 Recommendations from organizations: The American Cancer Society recommends annual MRI screening starting at ages for women with a breast cancer risk of over 20-25%, calculated according to models based on family history. This conclusion is based on a review of studies for this population, revealing an increase in the number of cancer cases detected when MRI screening is combined with mammography. 45 The NCCN recommends considering annual MRI for women whose risk is over 20%, calculated with risk assessment models using family history. This recommendation is based on an expert consensus with a review of evidence showing that MRI increases the number of detected cancer cases among women with high risk. 75 Cancer Care Ontario offers annual MRI screening to women from 30 to 69 years of age whose risk of breast cancer is over 25%. This recommendation is based on a review of evidence showing that MRI increases the number of detected cancer cases among women at an elevated risk. 44 NICE recommends annual MRI screening among women with an elevated breast cancer risk (>30%) only if they are also at greater than 30% risk for carrying a BRCA1/2 or TP53 gene mutation. The organization also recommends starting MRI screening at age 30 and mammography screening at age 40, but mammography screening can be considered starting at age 30. These recommendations were established using costeffectiveness analyses. 55

16 Ultrasound Context: No randomized trial conducted on ultrasound screening has been reported and there is no conclusive evidence demonstrating that this technology reduces mortality. One retrospective study found a similar sensitivity when ultrasound screening is used in combination with mammography among women with a category c-d density compared to women with a category a-b density and mammography screening. 73 A research team performed ultrasound screening on 22,131 women with negative mammograms. The ultrasound screening detected 1.85/1,000 additional breast cancer cases (a total of 41, of which 37 were invasive). No significant difference was observed between women with category a-b density when compared with category c-d density. 74 Recommendations from organizations: The American College of Radiology recommends ultrasound screening for women who are eligible for MRI but who cannot tolerate it. 78 NICE states that ultrasound screening is possible for women who are eligible for MRI but for whom it is contraindicated. 55 Cancer Care Ontario offers ultrasound screening to women for whom MRI is contraindicated. 79 Age when screening ceases Recommendations from organizations: Cancer Care Ontario provides annual MRI and annual mammography until age 69 for women with elevated risk. Screening then consists of mammograms every two years up until age NICE offers MRI to eligible women until age 49. To continue MRI screening after age 50, NICE requires the mammography results show dense breast tissue. Mammography screening continues until age 73 in accordance with the United Kingdom s public screening program. 55

17 The NCCN and the American Cancer Society do not suggest an age when MRI or mammography screening should cease. 45, Tomosynthesis Context: Tomosynthesis is a digital mammography technique that produces multiple images of the entire breast from different angles while reducing the effect of overlapping tissue. Unlike digital mammography, where each image is created from a single exposure to x-rays, tomosynthesis images are reconstructed from a series of low-dose exposures when the x-ray tube moves in arcs or linearly above the breast. A conventional mammogram and tomosynthesis can be conducted during the same test on the same scanner. 80 In Quebec, few clinics and hospitals are equipped with tomosynthesis scanners at present. The clinical use of tomosynthesis has been approved by Health Canada and the FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration). 64 The goal of the Oslo Tomosynthesis Screening Trial is to compare digital mammography alone to being combined with tomosynthesis for women ages 50 to 69. A 27% increase in the number of cancer cases detected was observed in the group scanned using tomosynthesis, as well as a 15% reduction in false-positives. There was a 40% increase in the detection of invasive cancers. 81 The Oslo Tomosynthesis Screening Trial also aimed to compare the efficiency of combining tomosynthesis with conventional mammography, versus tomosynthesis and the synthetic 2D image obtained using tomosynthesis. There was no difference in terms of the rates of cancer detection and false-positives. Using a synthetic 2D image along with tomosynthesis, instead of mammography, would reduce the radiation dose by around 45% without compromising performance. 82 One retrospective study found no increase in breast cancer detection using tomosynthesis combined with mammography (versus mammography alone), but found that tomosynthesis significantly reduced the recall rate among women with dense breasts and among younger women. Table 6 shows the results of this study regarding recall rates. 83

18 Table 6: Recall rates for tomosynthesis in combination with mammography, and digital mammography alone Parameter Tomosynthesis plus mammography Recall Rates (%) Digital mammography alone P value Percent reduction of recall rate (95% confidence interval) Number of tomosynthesis + mammography examinations needed to prevent one recall Overall < (19.1, 36.5) 28.0 Breast density Mostly fatty (-7.8, 54.5) 46.3 Slightly dense < (12.5, 35.7) 37.9 Moderately dense < (29.1, 48.2) 15.2 Extremely dense < (29.2, 74.2) 11.2 Age < 40 years < (25.7, 73.7) years < (24.2, 45.7) years < (12.7, 44.6) years (12.3, 44.6) years (-21.3, 41.0) 82.6 Recommendations from organizations: The INESSS concluded in an information note on Digital Breast Tomosynthesis (DBT) that DBT is a promising technological advance that has moved beyond the technological development stage and is about to move beyond the investigational phase. However, there is still not sufficient standardization from an operational standpoint for it to be included in a population-based screening program. 84

19 3.5 Clinical breast exam Context: There is currently no consensus in the literature regarding the role of the clinical breast exam in screening. A review of the literature reveals that clinical breast exam sensitivity varies between 40 and 69%, specificity between 88 and 99%, and positive predictive value between 4% and 50%. 85 One study compared women who were screened with mammography alone to women screened with mammography and the clinical breast exam. This study was conducted with the general population of women following the Ontario screening program, among women without a history of breast cancer, breast implants or acute symptoms. The results show that adding the clinical breast exam only allows for the detection of 0.4 additional cases of cancer per 1,000 women in screening, compared to mammography alone, and increases false-positives by 2.2%. The study does not provide analysis for other levels of breast cancer risk. 86 The CNBSS-2 study is the only one to have compared the clinical breast exam alone versus mammography plus the clinical exam. This study did not show a difference in mortality between women who underwent screening using mammography and the clinical breast exam, compared to women screened with the clinical exam alone. 87 One study conducted in a routine clinical setting shows that some 5% of cancers detected in screening were detected by the clinical breast exam while the mammography screening was negative. 88 In a population of women at high risk, where a total of 165 cases of breast cancer had been diagnosed, the clinical breast exam contributed to 30% of the diagnoses, and detected 9 cancer cases that were invisible to mammography screening. 89 Recommendations from organizations: The Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care recommends against performing clinical breast exams in breast cancer screening for women ages with average risk. 90

20 The recommendations for adult periodic medical evaluation from the Collège des Médecins du Québec states that the clinical breast exam can provide additional information, but is no longer officially recommended for screening. 91 Cancer Care Manitoba recommends against performing the clinical breast exam in routine screenings. 92 According to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, there is insufficient evidence to recommend clinical breast exams for breast cancer screening. 93,94 NICE recommends against routine clinical breast exams in its general guideline for breast cancer and in its guideline for family breast cancer and for asymptomatic women. 55,95 The NCCN recommends that women with a risk of breast cancer comparable to the general population and who are between the ages of 25 to 39 receive a clinical breast exam every 1 to 3 years, then annually starting at age 40. The NCCN also recommends that women ages 35 and over with a >1.7% risk of breast cancer over 5 years, receive a clinical breast exam every 6 to 12 months. For women with a >20% lifetime risk, clinical breast exams should be performed every 6 to 12 months starting at age 30. Finally, women with a strong suspicion of a genetic predisposition (according to the Claus, BRCAPRO, BOADICEA or Tyrer-Cuzick models) should receive clinical breast exams every 6 to 12 months starting at age 25. In addition, the NCCN recommends that women ages 35 and over with a history of lobular neoplasia receive a clinical breast exam every 6 to 12 months. 75 The ACOG recommends the clinical breast exam annually for women ages 40 and over, and once every 1 to 3 years for women ages 20 to The BC Cancer Agency recommends an annual clinical breast exam for women ages 20 and up. 97 The World Health Organization does not recommend the clinical breast exam in screening. 98 According to the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Centre, women with an average risk of breast cancer should get annual clinical breast exams starting at age 25. For women with a first-degree relative diagnosed with breast cancer, the clinical breast exam should be performed every 3 to 6 months, and 10 years before the age when the cancer appeared in the relative. For women with a history of lobular neoplasia or atypical hyperplasia, a clinical breast exam should be performed every 3 to 6 months after diagnosis. 99

21 3.6 Women with breast implants Context: The information discussed in this section regards women with cosmetic breast implants for breast augmentation. It does not concern women who received breast implants following a mastectomy (to prevent or following breast cancer). One systematic review and meta-analysis had revised several studies on breast cancer detection and the survival of women with breast implants. The results would suggest diagnosis at a more advanced stage for women with breast implants than for women without implants. They also revealed a higher mortality linked to breast cancer in women with implants than in women without them. However, the number of studies revised was low and several of them were found to contain significant biases. 100 Studies done on augmented patients with palpable breast cancer showed that screening mammography sensitivity was reduced ( %) and that the number of false-negatives was increased. 101,102,103 One literature review concludes that mammography could potentially be useful in screening women with breast augmentation, but that its usefulness remains controversial. 104 Only one study looked at the efficiency of ultrasound compared to mammography. It was a retrospective study done in Taiwan that showed highly increased sensitivity (87.5% vs. 25%) of the ultrasound compared to mammography among women with breast implants. This study was based on low numbers of participating women. 105 Recommendations from organizations: The First International Breast (Implant) Conference recommended that screening for women with breast augmentation be done with mammography. 106

22 4. Prevention 4.1 Habits and lifestyle choices Alcohol The Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse conducted a literature review and summarized evidence concerning the increase in the relative risk of death from breast cancer per level of alcohol consumption, as illustrated in table Table 7: Percentage of breast cancer risk increase according to the daily consumption of alcohol Proportion of all deaths, Percentage of breast cancer risk increase Daily amount of alcohol consumption 1 glass 2 glasses 3 to 4 glasses 5 to 6 glasses Over 6 glasses 1 out of 45 13% 27% 52% 93% 193% It should be noted that the increase in breast cancer risk linked to alcohol consumption follows a dose-response curve, and consequently, any level of consumption can potentially increase the risk of breast cancer. 108 Recommendations from organizations: In 2011, the Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse conducted a review of conclusive evidence on alcohol consumption and established guidelines for low-risk consumption (not directly pertaining to breast cancer risk). The group recommended that adult women limit consumption to 0 to 2 glasses of alcohol a day, with a maximum of 10 glasses of alcohol a week. 107 This recommendation was adopted by the Collège des médecins du Québec and Éduc alcool. 109 NICE recommends informing women with a family history of breast cancer that alcohol consumption can slightly increase their risk. 55 The NCCN recommends limiting alcohol consumption to less than one glass a day. 43

23 Tobacco The Canadian Expert Panel on Tobacco Smoke and Breast Cancer Risk concluded that evidence demonstrates a causal relationship between active tobacco smoking and breast cancer (pre- and post-menopause). The panel also found that evidence showed a causal relationship between second-hand smoke and breast cancer among young women, mainly premenopausal women who have never smoked. However, this evidence is insufficient to make a statement on the link between second-hand smoke and the occurrence of breast cancer among postmenopausal women. 110 Recommendations from organizations: NICE recommends advising women not to smoke. 55 Weight Obesity (BMI 30), overweight, (BMI from 25 to 29.9) and weight gain at an adult age are associated with increased risk of breast cancer after menopause. However, obesity appears to be linked to reduced risk of breast cancer before menopause. 111,112,113,114,115,116,117 Recommendations from organizations: The NCCN recommends weight management. 43 NICE recommends informing women of the probable risk increase of breast cancer linked to being overweight after menopause. 55

24 Physical Activity Several studies have shown a reduced risk of breast cancer in women who are physically active. 118,119,120,121,122 A review of different studies had estimated a 25% reduction in breast cancer risk among physically active women compared to that of sedentary women. 123 Recommendations from organizations: The Canadian Society for Exercise Physiology recommends doing at least 150 minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity a week. Examples of moderate physical activity include cycling and fast-paced walking. 124 The Public Health Agency of Canada supported the development of these guidelines and uses them in their recommendations. 125 Health Canada (in Canada s Health Food Guide) recommends 150 minutes or more of moderate to intense physical activity a week. 126 The World Cancer Research Fund / American Institute for Cancer Research recommends 30 minutes of moderate physical activity a day (equal to a fast-paced walk). 127 The NCCN recommends physical exercise in the Guideline on reducing the risk of breast cancer. 43 NICE recommends informing women of the potential benefits of physical exercise on their risk of breast cancer. 55 Diet One study showed an overall postmenopausal breast cancer risk reduction of 60% in women who adhere to 5 out of the 6 recommendations of the World Cancer Research Fund / American Institute for Cancer Research, compared to those who adhere to none. The recommendations studied looked at weight, physical activity, high calorie food, plant-based food, red and processed meats, and alcohol. 128

25 Recommendations from organizations: Canada s Food Guide recommends that women between the ages of 18 and 50 eat 7 to 8 portions of fruit and vegetables a day (one portion is equal to about a ½ cup of fresh, frozen or canned fruit or vegetables). The Food Guide also recommends that half of all grain intake should be from whole grains. Furthermore, it is also advised to eat meat substitutes regularly, to eat at least two portions of fish a week and to choose lean meats or substitutes prepared with little fat and salt. 129 The American Cancer Society recommends opting for a diet that helps achieve and maintain a healthy weight level, limiting consumption of red or processed meats, eating at least 2 ½ cups of fruit and vegetables a day, and choosing whole grains over refined ones. 130 The World Cancer Research Fund and the American Institute for Cancer Research recommends avoiding high calorie foods and sugary drinks, eating mostly plant-based food, limiting consumption of red or processed meats and limiting salt intake. 131 Breastfeeding Breastfeeding is associated with reduced breast cancer according to results from several studies. They also observed the magnitude of this risk reduction depended on the length of breastfeeding. 132,133,134,135 One combined analysis of 47 studies estimated a 4.3% reduction in breast cancer risk per 12 months of breastfeeding. 136 Recommendations from organizations: NICE recommends that women be advised to breastfeed if possible as it is likely to reduce their risk of breast cancer, and because breastfeeding is recommended in general. 55

26 Breast Awareness General information: Some organizations have developed tools for women, to explain how to be aware of changes in their breasts. For example, they suggest noting any change in texture, and pay attention to discharge or redness, etc. 137,138,139 After some studies demonstrated that breast self-examinations do not reduce mortality, the concept of breast awareness arose and has been included in some recommendations. Two studies, conducted in Russia and in Shanghai, demonstrate that breast self-examinations do not impact overall mortality or breast cancer mortality. 140,141 According to a Cochrane review that looks mainly at these two studies, breast self-examination has no benefits, but women should be encouraged to be aware of changes in their breasts. 142 Recommendations from organizations: Cancer Care Manitoba recommends encouraging women to know their breasts. 92 The NCCN recommends all women be aware of their breasts ( breast awareness ). 75 The ACOG recommends encouraging women to be aware of their breasts. 143 According to the BC Cancer Agency, breast self-examination may be suggested to women so that they can detect any changes early on. All the same, the BC Cancer Agency recognizes that there is no evidence that breast self-examination improves survival. 97 The Quebec Breast Cancer Screening Program s website states it is still crucial that each woman observe her breasts. 139

27 4.2 Pharmacoprevention General information: The use of tamoxifen and raloxifene in breast cancer primary prevention is not approved by Health Canada. 144, Their use is however approved in the United States. 147,148,149 Studies on raloxifene only examined its effects in postmenopausal women. Evidence on tamoxifen: Table 8: Effectiveness of tamoxifen. Data adapted from NCCN. 43 Rate of invasive breast cancer in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project s (NSABP) clinical trial for breast cancer prevention Patient characteristics Risk ratio (tamoxifen vs. placebo) 95% Confidence interval All women years old Ages 50 to years old History of lobular carcinoma in situ History of atypical hyperplasia Rate of non-invasive breast cancer in the NSABP clinical trial for breast cancer prevention Patient characteristics Risk ratio (tamoxifen vs. placebo) 95% Confidence interval All women

28 Table 9: Toxicity of tamoxifen. Data adapted from the NCCN. 43 Toxicity among women enrolled in the NSABP clinical trial for breast cancer prevention Toxicity Annual rate per 1,000 patients Placebo Tamoxifen Relative risk (tamoxifen vs. placebo) 95% Confidence interval for the relative risk Invasive endometrial cancer 49 years years Deep vein thrombosis 49 years years Stroke 49 years years Pulmonary embolism 49 years years Bone fracture 49 years years Ischemic heart disease Development of cataracts Development of cataracts and cataract surgery performed

29 Evidence comparing tamoxifen and raloxifene: Table 10: Comparison of the effectiveness of tamoxifen and raloxifene. Data adapted from the NCCN. 43 Rate of invasive breast cancer in the NSABP Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR) median follow-up of 81 months Patient characteristics Risk ratio (raloxifene vs. tamoxifen) 95% Confidence interval All women years Ages years History of lobular carcinoma in situ History of atypical hyperplasia Rate of non-invasive breast cancer in the NSABP Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR) median follow-up of 81 months Patient characteristics Risk ratio (raloxifene vs. tamoxifen) 95% Confidence interval All women

30 Table 11: Comparison of the toxicity of tamoxifen and raloxifene. Data adapted from the NCCN. 43 Toxicity among women enrolled in the NSABP Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR) median follow-up of 81 months Toxicity Annual rate per 1,000 patients Tamoxifen Raloxifene Risk ratio (raloxifene vs. tamoxifen) 95% Confidence interval for the risk ratio Invasive endometrial cancer Endometrial hyperplasia Hysterectomy during follow-up Thromboembolic event Deep vein thrombosis Pulmonary embolism Development of cataracts Development of cataracts and cataract surgery performed

31 Table 12 illustrates the net benefit index, which is the number of potentially fatal events predicted over 5 years without chemoprevention, minus the number of potentially fatal events predicted over 5 years with chemoprevention. 150 Table 12: Risks and benefits of tamoxifen and raloxifene, among white, non-hispanic women, with uterus. Tamoxifen v. placebo (with uterus) Raloxifene v. placebo (with uterus) Risk of invasive breast cancer over Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages years (%) Strong evidence that the benefits outweigh the risks Moderate evidence that the benefits outweigh the risks The benefits do not outweigh the risks

32 Table 13 illustrates the net benefit index, which is the number of potentially fatal events predicted over 5 years without chemoprevention, minus the number of potentially fatal events predicted over 5 years with chemoprevention. 150 Table 13: Risks and benefits of tamoxifen and raloxifene, among white, non-hispanic women, without uterus. Risk of invasive breast cancer over 5 years (%) Tamoxifen v. placebo (without uterus) Raloxifene v. placebo (without uterus) Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages Strong evidence that the benefits outweigh the risks Moderate evidence that the benefits outweigh the risks The benefits do not outweigh the risks Recommendations from organizations:

33 The ASCO recommends that tamoxifen be discussed as an option among women at increased risk of breast cancer and at 35 years of age (a woman is considered at an increased risk if her risk of breast cancer over 5 years is 1.66% or if she was diagnosed with lobular carcinoma in situ). The use of raloxifene is also endorsed among menopausal women. The recommended treatments are over a period of 5 years. 151 The NCCN recommends chemoprevention as an option for premenopausal and postmenopausal women 35 years old, and who are at an increased risk of breast cancer ( 1.7% over 5 years OR diagnosed with lobular carcinoma in situ). Tamoxifen is recommended for both premenopausal and postmenopausal women, while raloxifene is recommended for postmenopausal women. 43 The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommends that clinicians engage in a shared medical decision with women 35 years old at an increased risk of breast cancer, concerning chemoprevention, if appropriate. The exact definition of what is considered as an increased risk has not been specified. The recommendation endorses tamoxifen and raloxifene medication. 152 NICE recommends offering chemoprevention among women at an elevated breast cancer risk ( 30% lifetime risk) and considering chemoprevention among women at moderate risk of breast cancer (17-30% lifetime risk), except if there is a personal history or a potentially increased risk of thromboembolism or endometrial cancer. The target medications are tamoxifen among premenopausal women, and tamoxifen or raloxifene among postmenopausal women. No minimum age is recommended for chemoprevention Preventive surgery Conclusive evidence shows a reduction in breast cancer risk of at least 90% following a preventive bilateral mastectomy among women with a family history of breast cancer or a mutation of the BRCA1/2 genes. 153,154,155,156 There is, however, no evidence that shows the effect of mastectomy on life expectancy. Recommendations from organizations: NICE recommends that preventive mastectomy be discussed with all women at high risk for breast cancer (which represents a >30% lifetime risk for NICE). NICE meanwhile specifies that a mastectomy is only appropriate among a small proportion of women who belong to high-risk families. 55

34 The NCCN recommends that preventive mastectomy generally only be considered for women with a BRCA1/2 mutation, or with another strongly predisposing mutation, significant family history, or possibly women who have been diagnosed with lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) or who have had thoracic radiotherapy before the age of The National Breast and Ovarian Cancer Centre recommends discussing risk reduction strategies, which could include preventive mastectomy with women at an elevated risk (risk between 25% and 50%). 70 From Saint-Paul-de-Vence, the recommendations mention discussing prophylactic surgery in cases where the risk of breast cancer is over 30% Clemons M, Goss P. Estrogen and the risk of breast cancer. N Eng J Med. 2001;344: Dupont WD, Page DL. Risk factors for breast cancer in women with proliferative breast disease. N Eng J Med. 1985;312: Hartmann LC, Sellers TA, Frost MH, et al. Benign breast disease and the risk of breast cancer. N Eng J Med. 2005;353: Courtillot C, Plu-Bureau G, Binart N, et al. Benign breast diseases. J Mammary Gland Biol Neoplasia. 2005;10: Page DL, Dupont WD, Rogers LW, Landenberger M. Intraductal carcinoma of the breast: follow-up after biopsy only. Cancer. 1982;49: Degnim AC, Visscher DW, Berman HK, et al. Stratification of breast cancer risk in women with atypia: a Mayo cohort study. J Clin Oncol. 2007;25: Collins LC, Baer HJ, Tamimi RM, Connolly JL, Colditz GA, Schnitt SJ. Magnitude and laterality of breast cancer risk according to histologic type of atypical hyperplasia: results from the Nurses' Health Study. Cancer. 2007;109: London SJ, Connolly JL, Schnitt SJ, Colditz GA. A prospective study of benign breast disease and the risk of breast cancer. JAMA. 1992;267: Page DL, Dupont WD. Anatomic markers of human premalignancy and risk of breast cancer. Cancer. 1990;66: Dupont WD, Page DL, Parl FF, et al. Long-term risk of breast cancer in women with fibroadenoma. N Eng J Med. 1994;331: Page DL, Dupont WD, Rogers LW, Rados MS. Atypical hyperplastic lesions of the female breast. A long-term follow-up study. Cancer. 1985;55:

35 12 Collins LC, Baer HJ, Tamimi RM, Connolly JL, Colditz GA, Schnitt SJ. The influence of family history on breast cancer risk in women with biopsyconfirmed benign breast disease: results from the Nurses' Health Study. Cancer. 2006;107: Page DL, Dupont WD, Rogers LW. Ductal involvement by cells of atypical lobular hyperplasia in the breast: a long-term follow-up study of cancer risk. Hum Pathol. 1988;19: Fisher B, Costantino JP, Wickerham DL, et al. Tamoxifen for the prevention of breast cancer: current status of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project P-1 study. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2005;16: Page DL, Kidd TE Jr, Dupont WD, Simpson JF, Rogers LW. Lobular neoplasia of the breast: Higher risk for subsequent invasive cancer predicted by more extensive disease. Hum Pathol. 1991;22: Fisher ER, Land SR, Fisher B, Mamounas E, Gilarski L, Wolmark N. Pathologic findings from the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project; twelve-year observations concerning lobular carcinoma in situ. Cancer. 2004;100: Arpino G, Laucirica R, Elledge RM. Premalignant and in situ breast disease: biology and clinical implications. Ann Intern Med. 2005;143: Catteau X, Simon P, Noel JC. Predictors of invasive breast cancer in mammographically detected microcalcification in patients with a core biopsy diagnosis of flat epithelial atypia, atypical ductal hyperplasia or ductal carcinoma in situ and recommendations for a selective approach to sentinel lymph node biopsy. Pathol Res Pract. 2012;208: Aroner SA, Collins LC, Schnitt SJ, Connolly JL, Colditz GA, Tamimi RM. Columnar cell lesions and subsequent breast cancer risk: a nested case-control study. Breast Cancer Res. 2010;12:R Ceugnart L, Doualliez V, Chauvet MP, et al. Pure flat epithelial atypia: is there a place for routine surgery? Diagn Interv Imaging. 2013;94: Rajan S, Sharma N, Dall BJ, Shaaban AM. What is the significance of flat epithelial atypia and what are the management implications? J Clin Pathol. 2011;64: Peres A, Barranger E, Becette V, Boudinet A, Guinebretiere JM, Cherel P. Rates of upgrade to malignancy for 271 cases of flat epithelial atypia (FEA) diagnosed by breast core biopsy. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2012;133: Khoumais NA, Scaranelo AM, Moshonov H, et al. Incidence of breast cancer in patients with pure flat epithelial atypia diagnosed at core-needle biopsy of the breast. Ann Surg Oncol. 2013;20: Biggar MA, Kerr KM, Erzetich LM, Bennett IC. Columnar cell change with atypia (flat epithelial atypia) on breast core biopsy-outcomes following open excision. Breast J. 2012;18: Polom K, Murawa D, Murawa P. Flat epithelial atypia diagnosed on core needle biopsy-clinical challenge. Rep Pract Oncol Radiother. 2012;17: Turashvili G, McKinney S, Martin L, et al. Columnar cell lesions, mammographic density and breast cancer risk. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2009;115: Henderson TO, Amsterdam A, Bhatia S, Hudson MM, Meadows AT, Neglia JP, et al. Systematic review: surveillance for breast cancer in women treated with chest radiation for childhood, adolescent, or young adult cancer. Ann Intern Med. 2010;152(7):444-55; W