Prelude to Risk Characterization Exposure Calculations from Risk and Decision Making
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1 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 1 Prelude to Risk Characterization Exposure Calculations from Risk and Decision Making
2 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 2
3 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 3
4 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 4
5 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 5 Risk Characterization Inputs Needed 1. Exposure point concentrations of n chemicals in m media at p points where a population is exposed with central tendency and upper bound values for each a total of n m p 2 concentration values 2. Intake rates of m media at p exposure points over chronic (noncancer) and lifetime (cancer) durations with central tendency and upper bound values for each a total of m p 2 2 intake rates 3. Chemical toxicity values for n chemicals for noncancer (RfD) and cancer (SF) toxicities [with central tendency and upper bound values for each someday] a total of n 2 [2] toxicity values
6 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 6 Risk Characterization Calculations For each population 1. Calculate noncancer risk A. Calculate 2 (central tendency plus upper bound) chronic doses of each chemical i = 1 to n from each medium j = 1 to m for each exposed population k = 1 to p Dose chronic i, j,k Concentrationi, j IR chronic j, k B. Calculate 2 (central tendency plus upper bound) Hazard Quotients of each chemical i = 1 to n from each medium j = 1 to m for each exposed population k = 1 to p chronic Dosei, j,k HQi, j,k RfDi C. Calculate 2 (central tendency plus upper bound) Hazard Indices for each population k = 1 to p summing over m chemicals in n media i n i 1 j m HI k HQ i, j 1 j,k D. Examine each HI k i) Population is at risk if any HIk is greater than 1 a) If any HI k is greater than 1, see which chemical(s) have HQ i,k greater than 1 b) If no individual HQ i,k is greater than 1, see if chemicals adding to HI k greater than 1 have the same critical effect
7 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 7 Risk Characterization Calculations (continued) 2. Calculate cancer risk A. Calculate 2 (central tendency plus upper bound) lifetime doses of each chemical i = 1 to n from each medium j = 1 to m for each exposed population k = 1 to p Dose lifetime i, j,k Concentrationi, j lifetime j, k B. Calculate 2 (central tendency plus upper bound) risks of each chemical i = 1 to n from each medium j = 1 to m for each exposed population k = 1 to p Risk i, j,k lifetime Dosei, j,k SFi IR C. Calculate 2 (central tendency plus upper bound) total cancer risks for each population k = 1 to p summing over m chemicals in n media i n i 1 j m Risk k Risk i, j 1 j,k D. Calculate population risk for members of population k: Population k Risk Risk k {Number of people exposed in 70 years}
8 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 8 Example Data Upper Bound Intake Rates Exposed Population Current Worker Exposure Point Work site Work site Exposure Medium Soil Soil Exposure Route IR chronic IR lifetime Units Oral 1.1E-6 3.8E-7 kg/kg/day Dermal* 8.8E-6 3.2E-6 kg/kg/day Current child trespasser Site Site Pond Pond Pond Pond Soil Soil Surface water Surface water Sediments Sediments Oral Dermal* Oral Dermal** Oral Dermal* 2.2E-7 1.9E-7 1.3E-6 9.4E-4 2.5E-8 9.8E-7 Not Calculated kg/kg/day kg/kg/day L/kg/day L/kg/day kg/kg/day kg/kg/day Future adult resident Home Home Home Home Yard soil Yard soil Groundwater Groundwater Oral Dermal* Oral Inhalation*** 1.4E-6 1.8E-6 2.7E-2 5.4E-2 5.9E-7 7.9E-7 1.2E-2 2.4E-2 kg/kg/day kg/kg/day L/kg/day L/kg/day Future child resident Home Home Home Home Yard soil Yard soil Groundwater Groundwater Oral Dermal* Oral Inhalation*** 1.3E-5 3.4E-5 6.4E-2 1.3E-1 Not Calculated kg/kg/day kg/kg/day L/kg/day L/kg/day *Assuming ABS=0.25 for volatiles, 0.1 for semivolatiles and pesticides/pcbs and 0 for inorganics **Assuming PC = 1 cm/hr for all organics ***Assuming inhalation exposure = twice oral exposure
9 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 9 Exposure Point Concentrations Soil Groundwater Surface water Sediment Chemical Mean UCL Mean UCL Mean UCL Mean UCL VOLATILES Acetone 1.1E-2 1.1E-2 4.1E-2 9.7E-2 6.9E-3 9.1E-3 7.0E-2 1.1E-1 2-Butanone 5.5E-3 2.2E-2 9.1E-3 1.6E-2 5.0E-3 1.6E-2 1.6E-2 2.1E-2 Xylenes 3.0E-3 3.8E-3 2.5E-3 2.9E-3 2.5E-3 2.5E-3 7.8E-3 1.1E-2 SEMIVOLATILES Benzoic acid 9.3E-1 1.7E+0 3.0E-2 3.5E-2 2.5E-2 5.1E+0 5.1E+0 8.4E+0 Benzyl alcohol 2.3E-1 3.3E-1 5.0E-3 7.0E-3 5.0E-3 5.0E-3 1.0E+0 1.7E+0 Pyrene 4.1E-1 6.7E-1 5.9E-3 7.0E-3 5.0E-3 5.0E-3 1.0E+0 1.7E+0 PESTICIDES/PCBs Aldrin 1.4E-2 2.1E-2 2.5E-5 4.1E-5 2.6E-5 2.7E-5 1.2E-2 1.7E-2 4,4 -DDT 1.6E-2 1.9E-2 5.8E-5 6.8E-5 5.1E-5 5.3E-5 4.8E-2 8.3E-2 Endosulfan I 1.4E-2 2.1E-2 2.9E-5 4.1E-5 2.6E-5 2.7E-5 1.2E-2 1.7E-2 INORGANICS Antimony 2.4E+1 6.6E+1 1.7E-2 2.2E-2 1.7E-2 2.3E-2 1.5E-2 2.0E-2 Arsenic 2.5E+0 4.5E+0 8.8E-3 2.0E-2 2.5E-3 3.7E-3 2.4E-3 3.6E-3 Vanadium 1.7E+1 2.6E+1 1.5E-3 3.1E-3 2.8E-3 4.2E-3 1.5E-2 2.1E-2
10 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 10 Toxicity Values Noncancer Oral Inhalation Confidence Confi- Chemical Effect RfD RfC dence VOLATILES Acetone Increased liver, kidney weight, 1E-1 Low nephrotoxicity oral 2-Butanone Central nervous system toxicity, fetotoxicity inhalation 5E-2 Medium 9E-2 Xylenes Central nervous system toxicity oral & inhalation; developmental effects inhalation 2E-1 Medium 9E-2 SEMIVOLATILES Benzoic acid Irritation, malaise oral 4E+0 Benzyl alcohol Forestomach epithelial hyperplasia 3E-1 Pyrene Kidney damage oral 3E-2 Low PESTICIDES/PCBs Aldrin Liver toxicity oral 3E-5 Medium 4,4 -DDT Liver damage oral 5E-4 Medium Endosulfan I Mild kidney lesions oral 5E-5 Medium INORGANICS Antimony Arsenic Vanadium Decreased longevity, changes in blood glucose and cholesterol ingestion Membrane irritation inhalation; keratosis, hyperpigmentation, neurological disorders inhalation and oral Renal & gastrointestinal toxicity oral; respiratory irritation inhalation 4E-4 Low 1E-3 2E-2 Medium
11 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 11 Toxicity Values Cancer Weight of Evidence Inhalation Chemical Tumor Type Oral VOLATILES Chloroform Liver & kidney oral & inhalation B2 6.1E-3 8.1E-2 Methylene chloride Liver oral & inhalation B2 7.5E-3 1.6E-3 Trichloroethene Liver oral; lung inhalation B2 1.1E-2 6.0E-3 SEMIVOLATILES 1,4-Dichlorobenzene Liver oral 2.4E-2 2,6-Dinitrotoluene Liver & kidney oral B2 6.8E-1 Pentachlorophenol Liver, adrenal, vascular oral B2 1.2E-1 PESTICIDES/PCBs Aldrin Liver oral B2 1.2E+1 6.1E+0 4,4 -DDT Liver oral B2 3.4E-1 3.4E-1 Arochlor-1254 Liver oral B2 7.7E+0 INORGANICS Arsenic Lung inhalation; skin oral 1.8E+0 1.5E+1 Beryllium Lung inhalation; bone injection B2 4.3E+0 8.4E+0 Cadmium Lung, prostate inhalation B1 inhalation 6.3E+0
12 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 12 Output Risk Characterization Major chemicals contributing risk for Current Worker Noncancer Cancer Chemical Oral Dermal Percent Oral Dermal Percent Polycyclic aromatic 4.2E-5 NC 1.6E-5 NC 16 hydrocarbons Aroclor-1260 NC NC 3.8E-5 3.2E-5 79 Antimony 1.8E-1 NC 65 NC NC Arsenic 4.9E-3 NC 2 3.0E-6 NC 3 Cadmium 6.5E-2 NC 23 NC NC Pathway totals 3E-1 2E-3 6E-5 4E-5 Population totals HI = 3E-1 Risk = 1E-4 NC = Not calculated Major chemicals contributing risk from groundwater to Future Resident Noncancer Cancer Chemical Oral Inhalation Percent Oral Inhalation Percent Hexachlorobenzene 2.4E-1 NC 7 1.3E-4 NC 2 Polycyclic aromatic 1.9E-3 NC 6.8E-3 NC 91 hydrocarbons Antimony 1.5E+0 NC 44 NC NC Arsenic 5.5E-1 NC E-4 NC 6 Thallium 6.4E-1 NC 19 NC NC Pathway totals 3E+0 4E-2 8E-3 6E-6 Population totals HI = 3E+0 Risk = 8E-3 NC = Not calculated
13 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 13 Characterization of Uncertainty Qualitative Factor Lack of quantification of some exposure pathways Lack of quantification of TICs Lack of complete toxicity values for every chemical, duration, route, and endpoint Assumption that all chemicals of concern are present in all site samples Assumption that concentrations in soil and groundwater will remain constant over time Assumption of a future residential use of the site Use of conservative toxicity values Use of conservative exposure assumptions Lack of complete site characterization Assumption that risks from multiple chemicals are additive Potential Effect Underestimate exposure Underestimate risk Underestimate risk Overestimate exposure Overestimate exposure Overestimate exposure Overestimate risk Overestimate exposure Overestimate or underestimate risk Overestimate or underestimate risk
14 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 14 Characterization of Uncertainty Quantitative Compare central tendency and high-end values Monte Carlo analysis Simulation of the distribution of output variables by repeated calculations using random input variables of defined distributions.
15 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 15 From USEPA Risk Characterization Handbook, December 2000
16 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 RISK CHARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT PAGE 16 Coda to Risk Characterization Risk Characterization Calculations from Risk and Decision Making
17 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 R ISK C HARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT P AGE 17
18 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 R ISK C HARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT P AGE 18
19 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 R ISK C HARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT Risk Management Guiding principles: Equity Economic efficiency Ease of implementation Types of standards: Concentration based Technology based Risk based Rule of thumb If risk 10-6, rarely act If risk > 10-4, usually act Realities: Information is expensive Uncertainty is omnipresent 80/20 rule P AGE 19
20 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 R ISK C HARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT Risk Management for Hazardous Waste Sites Applicable or Relevant and Appropriate Requirements (ARARs) chemical-specific location-specific action-specific To reduce the risk Reduce exposure Reduce concentration Available Technologies Excavation soil Clay cap soil Treatment: wash soil stabilize soil biodegrade soil vapor extract soil or groundwater chemical destruction soil or groundwater carbon absorption water metals precipitation water Role of risk assessment: how much soil/water must be treated what risks remain from residual concentrations fate and transport modeling P AGE 20
21 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 R ISK C HARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT P AGE 21 Remediation Goals When have multiple chemicals, make sum of HIs 1, make sum of risks 10 4 Approaches: reduce all concentrations by the same proportion reduce chemical concentrations by classes consider treatment options, spatial distribution of most risky chemicals, etc. EXAMPLE Baseline Reduce all by 90% Soil Water Arsenic 1E-4 3E-5 Chloroform 2E-4 8E-5 PCBs 6E-4 1E-6 Pathway totals 9E-4 1E-4 Total 1E-3 Reduce soil by 99% Reduce all but Arsenic Soil Water Soil Water Soil Water Arsenic 1E-5 3E-4 Arsenic 1E-6 3E-5 Arsenic 1E-4 3E-5 Chloroform 2E-5 8E-4 Chloroform 2E-6 8E-5 Chloroform 2E-6 8E-6 PCBs 6E-5 1E-7 PCBs 6E-6 1E-6 PCBs 6E-6 1E-7 Pathway totals 9E-5 1E-5 Pathway totals 9E-6 1E-4 Pathway totals 1E-4 4E-5 Total 1E-4 Total 1E-4 Total 1E-4
22 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 R ISK C HARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT Cost-Benefit Analysis Risk analysis: How many premature deaths would action X prevent? Cost analysis: How much would action X cost? Benefit analysis: How much is preventing a premature death worth? Approaches to benefit analysis: Human capital Willingness-to-pay Survey Occupational behavior Consumer behavior Credible range: $2,100,000 to $11,000,000 (1995 dollars) $2,700,000 to $14,000,000 (2005 dollars) P AGE 22
23 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 R ISK C HARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT Risk Management of DNC Risk Reduction Calculations from Risk and Decision Making P AGE 23
24 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 R ISK C HARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT P AGE 24
25 ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/04/05 R ISK C HARACTERIZATION / MANAGEMENT P AGE 25 Risk Reductions and Remediation Costs Action Baseline none 1) 1)&2) 1)&2)&3) 1)&2)&3)&4) 1)&2)&3)&4)&5) central high central high central high central high central high central high Individual Risks Pop. 1 Pop Pop Population Risk 5.84 Cost 0.63 $1,1100, $1,820, $3,085, $4,300, $6,835,000 Apply Cost-Benefit Analysis Population Risk Reduction Cost per Life Cost From baseline 1) $1,100, From previous 2) $1,820, $350,000 3) $3,085, $530,000 4) $4,310, $740,000 5) $6,835, *Compared to 2) ** Compared to 1) From baseline From previous $210,000 $210,000 $1,200,000 $36,000,000 $2,300,000 * $3,400,000 ** $7,600,000 $280,000,000
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