Thailand: Where Do We Stand?

Transcription

1 Thailand: Where Do We Stand? Part 2-1 COMPETITIVENESS: Thailand is competitive Part 2-2

2 Source: 2006 CMAI World Petrochemical Conference, March 2006, Houston, Texas, U.S.A, Part 2-3 Ethylene Cash Costs Source: 2006 CMAI World Petrochemical Conference, March 2006, Houston, Texas, U.S.A, Part 2-4

3 Delivered Cost Comparison to Market Destinations: Ethylene Index Thailand : Ethane cash cost Thailand : Naphtha Export to Indonesia Malaysia : Ethane Singapore : Naphtha Middle East : Ethane Thailand : Ethane cash cost Thailand : Naphtha Export to Taiwan Middle East : Ethane S.Korea : Naphtha Japan : Naphtha Net Raw Material Utilities Labor Direct Overhead & Maint. Allocated Fixed Cost Freight Part 2-5 Index Delivered Cost Comparison to Market Destinations: HDPE Export to China Export to Vietnam Thailand S.Korea Taiwan Middle East Thailand S.Korea Singapore Middle East Net : Raw Material Utilities Labor Direct Overhead & Maint. Allocated Fixed Cost Freight Note: Ethylene transferred to HDPE plant at a weighted average of 70% of market price and 30% of cash cost from ethane cracker (with ethane price netback from ethylene) Part 2-6

4 PETROCHEMICAL MASTER 3 rd WAVE: What is critical? Part 2-7 Thai Petrochemical Industry Development Philosophy the 1 st Wave : Need to develop Eastern Seaboard using infrastructure to drive development & Need for domestic petrochemical products the 2 nd Wave the 1 st period : Need for wider product types the 2 nd period : Strengthen capability to enter international market the 3 rd Wave : Competitiveness, Unit Integration/Cluster and Alliances A Vision of Growth Part 2-8

5 Petrochemical Master Plan: the 3 rd Wave - Economic Implication Total Investment / Revenue / Margin Total Petrochemical Complex (1) Assume Developed in Map Ta Phut at Year 2002 (at Year of total plants completion) 33 products: 56 plants (2) (6 Upstream 17 Intermediate, 33 Downstream) Capacity - Upstream 3,368 Ole. 2,700 Ole. (KTA) 1,761 Aro. 14,184 1,031 Aro. 11,673 n Capacity - Intermediate 2,759 3,112 n Capacity - Downstream 6,296 4,830 M M$ M M$ Total Investment (3) (2) : 580,000 21, ,957 10,299 - Plant 300,000 10, ,157 10,179 - Infrastructure & Utility (3) 280,000 (4) 11,200 (4) (3) 4,800 (5) (4) 120 (5) (4) Total Revenue of Petrochemical 245,735 6, ,387 6,735 Industry (per annum) Net Revenue of Petrochemical Industry 174,521 4, ,242 4,606 Excludes Imported Portion (per annum) Net Margin (per annum) 70,426 1,761 ROI (%) 22.24% (1) Product prices: average price during (exclude abnormality) (3) Investment for total development in Eastern Seaboard was spent (2) Exclude land cost before 1997 (4) Additional investment in Map Ta Phut s infrastructure Note: Total Investment, Total Revenue, Net Revenue, Net Margin and ROI cover both plants in the Master Plan and the announced projects. FX: before-1997 = 25 Baht/US$, 1998 onward = 40 Baht/US$ Part Selected Products from the Master Plan Study and Additional Product(s) # for Petrochemical Industry Development - the 3rd Wave: Updated as of 22 February 2006 Ethylene Chain 1. LDPE 2. EVA # 3. LLDPE 4. HDPE 5. PVC 6. VCM 7. EG 8. Ethoxylate # 9. Ethanolamine # 10. Choline Chloride # 11. EPDM Propylene Chain 13. Polyol 14. PP 15. ACN 16. Propylene 12. Ethylene C 4 Chain 17. MMA 19. Butadiene 18. BMA # Part PS 21. ABS 22. SM 23. Epoxy Resins 24. Polycarbonate 25. Bisphenol A 26. Phenol 27. Cumene 28. PET 38. POM 39. PBT Aromatics Chain Note: # Products outside the the Master Plan study bold italic : products that should be supported due to their are high values red : products that have never been produced in Thailand before 29. Plasticizer 30. Alkyd Resins 31. UPR 32. PA 33. Nylon Benzene 35. P - Xylene 36. O - Xylene 37. Toluene # Others 40. TDI 41. Fatty Alcohol #

6 New projects (to be completed) Product Company Capacity (tons/year) Start-up Ethylene Chain Ethylene PTTChem-TOC (Naphtha Cracker) (X) by 130, PTTChem-TOC (Ethane Cracker) (X) by 100,000 Q PTTPE (Ethane Cracker) 1,000,000 Q CCC-Dow (Naphtha Cracker) 900,000 Q EVA PTTChem- NPC 100,000 Q LDPE PTTPE 300,000 Q LLDPE PTTPE 400,000 Q HDPE PTTChem- NPC (X) by 50,000 Q CCC 300,000 Q MEG PTTChem- TOC Glycol (X) by 100,000 Q Ethoxylate PTTChem- Thai Ethoxylate 50,000 Q Ethanolamine PTTChem- Thai Ethanolamine 50,000 Q Choline Chloride PTTChem- Thai Choline Chloride 20,000 Q Methyl Ester/ PTTChem- Thai Oleochemicals 331,000 Q Fatty Alcohol PTTChem- Thai Oleochemicals 100,000 Q Chlorine Vinythai (X) by 120,000 September 2006 EDC Vinythai (X) by 160,000 September 2006 VCM Vinythai (X) by 200,000 September 2006 TPC 120,000 Q PVC Vinythai (X) by 70,000 July 2008 TPC 300, Note: (X) = Expansion, = PTT Group, = SCC Group Part 2-11 New projects (to be completed) Product Company Capacity (tons/year) Start-up Propylene Chain Propylene PTTChem-TOC (Naphtha Cracker) (X) by 120, PTTChem-TOC (Ethane Cracker) (X) by 25,000 Q PTT (PDH) 310,000 early 2008 SCC-Dow 800,000 Q PP PTT 300,000 early 2008 SCC 400,000 Q ACN PTT Asahi 200, MMA PTT Asahi 70, Aromatics Chain Benzene Thai Paraxylene 160,000 end 2007-early 2008 ATC 364,000 Q Phenol PTT Phenol 200, Bisphenol A PTT Phenol to be annoucned 2009 P-Xylene Thai Paraxylene (X) by 57,000 end 2007-early 2008 ATC 616,000 Q PET (Bottle Resin) Indorama Polymers (X) 36, Toluene Thai Paraxylene 140,000 end 2007-early 2008 Epoxy Resin Thai Epoxy (X) by 4,000 January 2006 Note: (X) = Expansion, = PTT Group, = SCC Group = Indorama Group Part 2-12

7 PTIT Possible Locations for Petrochemical Industry Development -- the 3 rd Wave: - Portion 1 in Map Ta Phut & Surrounding Areas, Rayong (A1-A4) - Portion 2 in Other Areas (B1-B5) B3 : Samutsakorn, Samutsongkram & Ratchaburi Yadana Yetagun B4 : Bangsapan (Prajuab) B5 : Sichon (Nakhornsrithammarat) Khanom Kp 361 B2 : North Chonburi 1st pipeline 2nd pipeline 3rd pipeline Benjamas Tantawan Platong Erawan PRP Arthit Pailin Part 2-13 Bongkot JDA B1 : North Rayong A1-A4 : 4 Areas in Map Ta Phut and Surrounding Areas, Rayong Ranking of Possible Areas for the 3 rd Wave Petrochemical Industry Development Location Land Port Water Electricity Transportation Rayong and Chonburi A A A A A Samutsakorn and Ratchaburi Petchburi and Prajuab Chumporn and Nakhornsrithammarat Sufficient Existing Water Existing Very good road land with plan ports distribution power plants network for industrial system in place development C D C A B Sufficient No port Maeklong River, 2 existing and Good road network land but no but no plan for 1 planned plan for water power plants industrial distribution B B C B C Industrial General Thasae Reservoir No power Elevated highway estate at cargo port not sufficient, plant across Gulf Bangsaphan water planned from distribution Samutsakorn to system not in Petchburi B C B A C Sufficient land with plan for industrial development New port planned Plenty of water resources but no distribution system in place Part 2-14 Existing power plants Land Bridge network planned

8 Feedstocks Consideration for the 3 rd Wave Ethane Propane LPG Naphtha NGL Condensate Part 2-15 Values Generated by Natural Gas Unit: Million Baht Industry Value - Electricity - E&P - Petrochemical - LPG (exclude LPG for feedstock) Government Take - Income Tax - E&P - Royalty - E&P Gas Used (746,000 MMSCF) 82.0% 100.0% 8.5% 9.5% Direct Financial Benefit 177, , ,093 18,423 29,000 21,298 Economic Multiplier 50, , ,691 Value Value lost lost if if import import fuels fuels (177, ,691 = 40,238 (177, ,691 = 40,238 electricity - imported fuel = value added) electricity - imported fuel = value added) Incremental Incremental values values forgone forgone if if indigenous indigenous gas gas not not used, used, and and import import fuel fuel instead instead = each industry has economic multiplier effect which is not quantified here Part 2-16

9 Critical drivers for the 3rd Wave of Thailand s Petrochemical Industry For Sustainable Growth Feedstock- Establish country policy to use as much natural gas for petrochemicals as possible. Market Build a strong domestic market while expanding into external network. Policy & Regulation - Supportive of sustainable development to create maximum value from petrochemical industry. Human Resource - Build sufficient quality human resource base. Part Integration At Last: PTT Group and SCC Group Part 2-18

10 Note: * Integration within the PTT Group PTT Chem Integration between NPC & TOC NPC TOC Ethylene HDPE EVA* LDPE* LLDPE* Propylene Phenol/Acetone** Future ** Phenol/Acetone is the joint-investment project between PTT, NPC,TOC and ATC. Part 2-19 Ethylene EG Ethanolamines * Ethoxylate * Choline Chloride* Fatty Alcohol* HDPE VCM PVC Phenol/Acetone** Thailand Petrochemical Groups Before Bangkok Bank Group CP Group Indorama PTT Group Siam Cement Group TOA Group TPI Group Others Vinythai BPE,HMC TPI BST, BST Elastomer Indorama PTT Group Siam Cement Group TOA Group Others Part 2-20

11 - New Dimensions: SCALE, TECHNOLOGY, NEW PRODUCTS Part 2-21 New Dimensions: SCALE, TECHNOLOGY, NEW PRODUCTS Scale: 1 Million tons Ethane Cracker: Definitely World Scale PTT sethane Cracker Commercial start up: Q Feedstock: Ethane Location: Map Ta Phut, Rayong Status: Bidding (as of Jun 06) Domestic consumption: 100% (EVA, LDPE LLDPE, HDPE) Part 2-22

12 World scale cracker size ~ 1 million t/y Source: Olefins Producer Perspective Changes in the Global Olefins Marketplace, Fran Keeth, Shell Chemicas, CMAI World Petrochemical Conference, March 29-31, 2005 Part 2-23 New Dimensions: SCALE, TECHNOLOGY, NEW PRODUCTS (Cont d) Technology: Metathesis for Propylene SCC s Metathesis Propylene Capacity 240, ,000 tons/yr Commercial start up: Q Feedstock: Ethylene + Butene Location: Map Ta Phut, Rayong Status: Bidding (as of Jun 06) Domestic consumption: 100 % (PP and others which will be announced later) Part 2-24

13 Ethylene-Butene Metathesis Butene 0.72 ton + Ethylene 0.30 ton 2 Propylene 1.00 ton Source: Novolen Technology, APTC, 9 May 2006, BKK Part 2-25 Investment US$ Per Annual Ton World-Scale Investment US$ Million FCC Naphtha FCC + DCC MTO MOI Superflex Dehydro Metathesis Splitter Steam ZSM-5 Cracker Investment per annual ton propylene Typical world scale investment Part 2-26

14 New Dimensions: SCALE, TECHNOLOGY, NEW PRODUCTS (Cont d) Products: MEG - Owner: TOC Glycol (PTTCH 100%) Commercial start up: Early July 2006 Capacity 300,000 tons/yr Feedstock: Ethylene (from PTTCH) Location: Map Ta Phut, Rayong Status: prepare to start up on 1 Jul 06 (as of Jun 06) Main Market Raw Material for Polyester Fibre: Textile Industry Raw Material for PET Bottle: Packaging Industry Domestic consumption: 1 st Yr 40%, 2 nd Yr onward 60-80% Part 2-27 New Dimensions: SCALE, TECHNOLOGY, NEW PRODUCTS (Cont d) Products: Phenol - Owner: PTT Phenol (PTT 40%, PTTCH 40%, ATC 20%) Commercial start up: March 2008 Feedstock: Propylene and Benzene (from PTTCH and ATC) Location: Map Ta Phut, Rayong Status: Signed EPC Contract (as of Jun 06) Main Market Raw Material for Bisphenol A (for Polycarbonate: Auto Industry, Electronics & Electrical Industry) PTT Phenol will start up its Bisphenol A project in Domestic consumption: 1st Yr 50 %; 2nd Yr onward 90% Part 2-28

15 New Dimensions: SCALE, TECHNOLOGY, NEW PRODUCTS (Cont d) Products: ACN Owner: PTT Asahi Chemical (PTT 47.5%, Asahi 47.5%, Marubeni 5%) Commercial start up: 2009 Feedstock: Propane (from PTT s GSP, using propane-to- ACN technology of Asahi) Location: Map Ta Phut, Rayong Status: Under discussion of commercial & technical terms and conditions (as of Jun 06) Main Market Raw Material for Acrylic Fibre: Textile Industry Raw Material for ABS: Auto Industry, Electronics & Electrical Industry Domestic Consumption: 65% Part 2-29 New Dimensions: SCALE, TECHNOLOGY, NEW PRODUCTS (Cont d) Products: Ethoxylate & Fatty Alcohols - Owner: Thai Ethoxylate (PTTCH 50%, Cognis 50%) and Thai Oleochemicals (PTTCH 100%) Commercial start up: Ethoxylate Q4 2006, Fatty Alcohol Q Capacity: Ethoxylate 50,000 tons/yr, Fatty Alcohol 100,000 tons/yr Feedstock: methyl ester (from PTTCH) => fatty alcohol => ethoxylate Location: Map Ta Phut, Rayong Status: Both are under construction (as of Jun 06) Main Market Raw Material for health & personal care products Domestic: Ethoxylate 40-60%, Fatty Alcohol 50-60% Part 2-30